tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post8210895239507484387..comments2024-03-28T16:57:50.266+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP set to defeat Charles Kennedy, and are just 1% away from unseating Jim Murphy, according to rip-roaring Ashcroft pollsJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger96125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51847170489554378582015-03-06T21:43:51.565+00:002015-03-06T21:43:51.565+00:00I have tried to put various combinations of result...I have tried to put various combinations of results into the prediction program on Electoral Calculus. I managed to get all 59 seats for the SNP with the following results:<br /><br />SNP 50%, Labour 20 % Cons 15% and all the others 5%. <br /><br />Anyone get all 59 seats to go to SNP with any lower value? (I tried to keep the other values vaguely in line with current polling.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5582593792525969302015-03-06T15:28:25.256+00:002015-03-06T15:28:25.256+00:00So can we call the Conservatives in Scotland, '...So can we call the Conservatives in Scotland, 'the official opposition'? <br /><br />Sorry to bang on about it, but it's that magical figure of 13% again...my predicted % of the Labour Party in Scotlands, true support. Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59047168641532831802015-03-06T14:49:40.430+00:002015-03-06T14:49:40.430+00:00Sadly, I've no idea what happens in Thurso eit...Sadly, I've no idea what happens in Thurso either, and I live there. The LibDems in seats like these have relied for too long on the soft-voting Tory demographic, who were too embarrassed to vote Tory in Scotland. I think they're probably too embarrassed to vote LibDem now, and will probably stay at home on May 7.<br />Hopefully the end days have arrived for (Lord) John Thurso, Charlie Kennedy, Danny Alexander and the cardboard cut-out in Orkney.Humerous Vegetablehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06749447163866759111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26992885237859287292015-03-06T13:32:43.539+00:002015-03-06T13:32:43.539+00:00That was released last night. This from Populus to...That was released last night. This from Populus <i>today</i>.<br /><br />"After sudden collapse, SNP surges to new highs..." ;-)<br /><br />58% SNP<br />15% Con<br />13% Lab<br />8% Lib<br />5% UKIP<br />1% Green<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80421934192009255642015-03-06T13:25:07.217+00:002015-03-06T13:25:07.217+00:00Piss off troll.
Happy now? :-)Piss off troll.<br /><br />Happy now? :-)Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64996201162765122282015-03-06T13:03:37.755+00:002015-03-06T13:03:37.755+00:00Latest YouGov subsample: SNP 36, Labour 29. The un...Latest YouGov subsample: SNP 36, Labour 29. The unstoppable Scottish Labour juggernaut is closing the gap and we can soon expect a large cohort of Labour MPs returning in Scotland in the next election. Momentum is with them.<br /><br />(OK, I'm really taking the piss there)Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40688838960277268792015-03-06T10:03:46.272+00:002015-03-06T10:03:46.272+00:00You have sadly mistaken me for someone who actuall...You have sadly mistaken me for someone who actually gives a shit about your petulant shrill whining. No matter! :-D <br /><br />That is why you have used 30 lines to respond, is it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77512505650820366542015-03-05T20:26:50.565+00:002015-03-05T20:26:50.565+00:00Live in Kilmacolm and the local labour party defin...Live in Kilmacolm and the local labour party definitely see this as a chance to pick up votes to save McKenzie. They've been out canvassing over the last couple of weekends, desperate stuff and probably shows that the Port and Greenock will predominantly vote SNP in May.Calgacus70https://www.blogger.com/profile/12957196330308073987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-92115159418274696082015-03-05T19:51:47.167+00:002015-03-05T19:51:47.167+00:00No - we use the Labour Party instead.
Hopefully, ...No - we use the Labour Party instead.<br /><br />Hopefully, we will still have more Pandas than <br />a) Tory MPs<br />b) Lib-Dem MPs<br />c) Labour MPs.Hosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07962638502091728814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50992675681128867852015-03-05T19:33:14.041+00:002015-03-05T19:33:14.041+00:00I was only suggesting a more varied style of invec...I was only suggesting a more varied style of invective. Mainly because I think the constant repetition of the same tired put-downs makes Mick come over as less intelligant than he actually is.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12570042765416207362015-03-05T18:57:37.836+00:002015-03-05T18:57:37.836+00:00It will probably be an 'Internal Poll' com...It will probably be an 'Internal Poll' commissioned by the Tories, Alisdair.<br /><br />They use this kind of poll to find out what kind of lies they need to feed to their friends in the MSM, so that we all line up and march into the polling booths (to the sound of 'Another brick in the wall' and vote Tory.<br /><br />Doesn't always work though!Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38987955873248963582015-03-05T14:46:11.901+00:002015-03-05T14:46:11.901+00:00Yes, I know, I wasn't really having a go, it&#...Yes, I know, I wasn't really having a go, it's just that I live in Dingwall and I've no idea what happens in Thurso. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04525945185977904212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88347651988548884052015-03-05T14:24:36.216+00:002015-03-05T14:24:36.216+00:00The point I was making was in response to somethin...The point I was making was in response to something (i cant remember what) to point out I'm not limited to a metropolitan Glasgow or Edinburgh bubble. It wasn't expressed well.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71269379833622990692015-03-05T14:23:21.021+00:002015-03-05T14:23:21.021+00:00Whit! *runs oot for paper* :-DWhit! *runs oot for paper* :-DMick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23838039130200094822015-03-05T14:21:31.563+00:002015-03-05T14:21:31.563+00:00@Sean
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_IUFIYwAQA...@Sean<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_IUFIYwAQA<br /><br />:-D<br /><br />Truth be told the third debate looked like it was toast (to me anyway) when I heard Coulson's Perjury trial was for days before it. I've no doubt at all that's why little Ed was so quick to say "any time" as even he would have figured that one out.<br /><br />The two man debate was always a stupid idea. The corrupt two party system has never been less popular and C4 and Sky think - "Now's the time to have a head to head with little Ed and the coward Cameron! AND we'll make it RIGHT BEFORE the election to try and overshadow the other two debates." <br /><br />Yeah, maybe not such a great idea after all, was it? :-D<br /><br />What will be interesting is that when the BBC and ITV ones go ahead whether Sky and C4 have a strop about it. (assuming the coward is still hiding from debating little Ed) I would presume the broadcasters all colluded to 'divvy up' the debates and they all privately thought they were getting the best deal. Turns out Sky and C4 might well end up with nothing now, but that's showbiz!<br /><br />It's pretty preposterous to think that the BBC and ITV would happily throw away such an easy and huge ratings grabber because one of their competitors lost out. They'll try to look sympathetic as they calculate how much larger their ratings will be with one less debate.<br /><br />Because, be in no doubt, the debates GOT the massive ratings and ticked all the boxes for political coverage and public service the broadcasters needed. They will get those ratings again come April the 2nd and April the 16th. <br /><br />The head to head on the 30th? Can't see it now and the broadcasters have already formally invited the leaders to the other two with almost all of them accepting and confirming they will indeed be there.<br /><br />So two debates anyway while Sky and C4 are left to reflect on the 'wisdom' of going for the head to head debates instead of simply copying the format for the other two.<br /><br /><br />The bottom line is if you don't have the balls to face the electorate in a fair debate then don't fucking complain that your ratings and party polling isn't doing better and you're heading for a loss. Might a debate make things worse in some cases? Sure, but unless you are ahead and ahead comfortably then you can't possibly work on the assumption that your leader is bound to do badly. Even if they are rubbish. You're basically admitting your leader is so bad they can't win an election anyway after all. <br /><br />Little Ed is gasping for breath and being dragged underwater by the Eggman and his own party collapse in scotland and still doing badly elsewhere. Yet who throws him that lifeline? The coward Cameron. You don't need to be a mindreader to work out how much a of HUGE deal little Ed will make of this throughout the election campaign. Have a look right now. Yeah, that's going to be 24/7 with the coward Cameron making excuse after excuse, day after day as his party shows no sign of hitting the numbers he needs for anything close to a majority.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64120249737635657982015-03-05T14:09:50.567+00:002015-03-05T14:09:50.567+00:00James, nice surprise this morning when I read your...James, nice surprise this morning when I read your article in the National .Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6872223595205953092015-03-05T14:05:35.380+00:002015-03-05T14:05:35.380+00:00New Populus Poll threw up a weird question
"...New Populus Poll threw up a weird question<br /><br />"You’ve said that you would prefer to see David Cameron as Prime Minister than Ed Miliband, and that you think the Conservative Party would do a better job of managing the economy than Labour, so we’re interested that earlier, when asked which party you would vote for if there was an election tomorrow, you said you would vote for SNP, not the Conservative Party. Please say which of the following statements apply to you."<br /><br />Then options <br /><br />- Regardless of my views about who would be best Prime Minister or best on the economy, I could just never bring myself to vote Conservative<br /><br />- Though I think that Cameron would be a better Prime Minister than Miliband, and that the Conservatives would be better than Labour on the economy, there are other issues that are more important in determining who I vote for - and on which I don’t trust Cameron or the Conservatives<br /><br />- I don’t want to vote Conservative, but in the end I may well end up doing so because Labour would be (even) worse on the economy and it’s unthinkable that Ed Miliband could end up as Prime Minister<br /><br />- Though the Conservatives are likely to do a better job than Labour of managing Britain’s economy overall, I don’t think people like me are likely to benefit from a recovering economy under the Conservatives<br /><br />- I like Cameron, but not his party<br /><br />- We need real change & I’m not going to be swayed into voting on the basis of which of the two main parties or leaders is the least bad<br /><br />- I’m going to vote based on local factors & the position of the parties and candidates in the constituency where I live, not on the basis of who I’d prefer as Prime Minister or which party would do the best job of managing the economy<br /><br />- Though I think that Ed Miliband would be a worse Prime Minister, I don’t like Cameron enough to make me actively want him to be Prime Minister<br /><br />Never seen a question like that, presumably a Conservative requested focus group question?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38367525295658254422015-03-05T13:46:30.351+00:002015-03-05T13:46:30.351+00:00Nice to see James' analysis on page 2 of the N...Nice to see James' analysis on page 2 of the National :)Johnnynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72386389612634300052015-03-05T13:39:02.803+00:002015-03-05T13:39:02.803+00:00I get bored by it too but I just internally edit i...I get bored by it too but I just internally edit it out as Mick is entertaining and has real moments of clarity that others don't offer.<br />He's repetitive, sure, but it's just a campaigning style.<br />Look below the style and the substance is all there.grimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4765311134547025212015-03-05T13:15:34.227+00:002015-03-05T13:15:34.227+00:00'Clegg's ostrich faction' might even b...'Clegg's ostrich faction' might even be my favourite. ;-) <br /><br />Totally nails the lib dem spinners mindset. <br /><br />I see calamity Clegg thinks he's going to stroll into the final debate to replace the cowardly Cameron. Leaving aside his own comical debate 'skill' with Farage, his own laughable personal poll ratings and that he's already agreed to the other debates - you would think even he would have realised by now that it might not be too clever an idea to stick up for this tory government and defend it to the hilt for an hour or so against little Ed.<br /><br />Yes, Clegg, what you really need to do is associate yourself and your party <i>even more</i> closely with the tories. So obvious in retrospect! :-DMick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31553144821263624682015-03-05T12:59:09.170+00:002015-03-05T12:59:09.170+00:00Personally, I can't get enough of 'the inc...Personally, I can't get enough of 'the incompetent fop' and 'Calamity Clegg'.Brotyboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16033816796226681381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30668168288417922232015-03-05T12:50:04.129+00:002015-03-05T12:50:04.129+00:00The Thurso nonsense was from someone who had the i...The Thurso nonsense was from someone who had the inside line because he had spoken to more than one person from up that way. I think he'd also been to the far North, Clackmannan if I remember rightly. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04525945185977904212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44625059414536350762015-03-05T12:38:57.890+00:002015-03-05T12:38:57.890+00:00There was an earlier post on Carmichael which did ...There was an earlier post on Carmichael which did a pretty good job of explaining it as it seems to be more of a 'legacy vote' than anything else. The politics there being quite a bit different to the mainland obviously. <br /><br />However, I did notice that <i>even there</i> the local SNP membership has rocketed up so I for one don't believe Carmichael its <i>truly</i> safe. Still the most likely winner? Certainly for now but we'll have to wait and see as we get closer and closer to polling day to be sure. <br /><br />I also seem to remember some absurd bullshit being touted about Thurso somehow being almost invincible because the locals supposedly tug their forlocks to Viscounts or some such claptrap. Let's be real. If Kennedy can go Thurso is most definitely toast. Thurso has obviously nowhere near the credibility and incumbency factor that Kennedy does. <br /><br />So it's an amusing buh-bye to the yellow tory Viscount going by these kind of numbers. :-DMick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24099829785709440092015-03-05T12:17:11.890+00:002015-03-05T12:17:11.890+00:00Ahh.... Now I see your error. (mysterious poster w...Ahh.... <i>Now</i> I see your error. (mysterious poster who never appeared on James Blog before till after we had a good laugh at the tory twats on Stormfront Lite PB. LOL)<br /><br />You have sadly mistaken me for someone who actually gives a shit about your petulant shrill whining. No matter! :-D <br /><br />Let me assure you that my mockery of that second rate Blair impersonator and obvious coward Cameron (along with little Ed and calamity Clegg) will continue unabated. As indeed will their own laughably bad personal ratings with the public. Since, what you also seem to have somehow inexplicably missed is that on this I am far from alone in thinking these pathetic jokes masquerading as westminster party leaders deserve nothing but mockery and contempt. The scottish public thinks so too. As do a huge chunk of opinion in rUK.<br /><br />Nor did you manage to comprehend that not all jokes are applicable. Without the truth backing them up they have absolutely no power or potency. Hence the shrill cries of "Red Ed" from the right-wing press having no purchase at all because it was such obvious bullshit. Or do you seriously think a Labour leader would be presiding over complete and utter catastrophe in scotland because he's too left-wing? Like fuck he would.<br /><br />I am copying no-one and have chosen my own ways to describe these foolish joke leaders every time. The mainstream media is overwhelmingly biased against the SNP and Independence so I think you'll find very few people on here getting as upset as you that a poster uses their own methods against these multi-billion pound corporations, press barons and well paid spindoctors. It's what is called an uneven playing field so I have no qualms at all about bettering their vapid and pitiful efforts.<br /><br />Last time I hear your kind of pitiful shrieking was on Stromfront Lite funnily enough. ;-)<br /><br />I <i>do</i> care about Rolfe's opinion since she is dedicated, almost always pleasant, well known here and not some pitiful sockpuppet for a PB coward. <br /><br />You on the other had can go fuck yourself. Sideways if you like. This isn't PB and I am under no obligation to be nice to obvious trolls. Nor will I be. :-)<br /><br />Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84985173760339739962015-03-05T12:16:32.669+00:002015-03-05T12:16:32.669+00:00If Cameron fails to turn up for the final debate i...If Cameron fails to turn up for the final debate it would clearly be unfair for it to become instead a long interview with Ed. So the moderator should simply go home and leave us with live coverage of Ed sitting alone for minute after excruciating minute. Quietly whistling and humming to himself, drumming his fingers, examining his fingernails, pretending to be having fun. Occasional attempts to talk live to camera abandoned because he has no script. End on a five minute close-up on his implausible grin. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.com