tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7940499524637413400..comments2024-03-28T16:21:32.043+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Poll of Polls : the long-term trend towards YesJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53380816566180839612014-02-25T13:41:04.310+00:002014-02-25T13:41:04.310+00:00Sandy : that's great, thanks very much for you...Sandy : that's great, thanks very much for your help.<br /><br />Yes, I think the hope must be that the move to Yes will accelerate from late May onwards, because from that point on the broadcasters are required to provide strictly balanced coverage (whether they will actually do that is highly doubtful, of course, but the situation should at least improve).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61137432951870960662014-02-25T13:30:07.402+00:002014-02-25T13:30:07.402+00:00I've only seen a couple of quotes from Eve Mui...I've only seen a couple of quotes from Eve Muirhead today, but if those are anything to go by she seems to have been fairly cagey. I'm not sure she meant her comments to be quite as political as the media have spun them - which brings me back to the feeling of ambivalence that I expressed at the start of the Olympics. In the end I was 100% behind the curlers in every game - but just imagine how much worse this media circus of "let's try to get them to say something that sounds unionist" would be now if they had won the gold.<br /><br />One thing we do know, of course, is that lower-income people are disproportionately likely to be Yes voters. Curling (at least in Scotland) is a sport played by the relatively affluent, so my guess is that if you did a poll of curlers there would be a decent No lead - particularly if that poll was conducted by the Aberdeen bridalwear company.<br /><br />There was a bizarre article in the Independent the other day claiming that Eve Muirhead must be a Yes voter, on the basis of no other evidence than that she plays the Scottish sports of curling and golf, is a talented bagpipe player, and once did a naked-except-for-tartan photoshoot. I'm not sure what that assumption says about the "you can be proudly Scottish and still want to remain within the United Kingdom" narrative.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13370399059993233922014-02-25T12:46:57.041+00:002014-02-25T12:46:57.041+00:00Nice to see the curlers getting involved in runnin...Nice to see the curlers getting involved in running down Scotland.<br /><br />Winning the World Championships as a Scottish team was rubbish compared to competing for the glorious team gb according to e muirhead. Absolute total and utterly amazing demonstration of the Scottish cringe. And yet people are defending her racist Scots are untermensch views.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80553981657532307212014-02-25T11:41:52.897+00:002014-02-25T11:41:52.897+00:00I've put a simple plot of the figures in Excel...I've put a simple plot of the figures in Excel - https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/18361224/NoLead.xlsx - both with just the data points and with a linear trendline (though it's questionable as to how much use that is). Assuming a linear trend, we do need things to accelerate a little to have a Yes lead in time for the vote, but I'd hope that there would come a tipping point once it starts to look more possible.<br /><br />If you're after something that can be posted online and updated live, Google Docs will let you publish in individual chart and the way it can be created is essentially the same as Excel. Once you've got a spreadsheet on google, add a chart and there's a button on it with an option to publish, you then get some html to copy+paste.Sandy Brownleenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14415346347352723002014-02-25T10:11:12.944+00:002014-02-25T10:11:12.944+00:00Calum : Yes Scotland referred to yesterday's P...Calum : Yes Scotland referred to yesterday's P&J survey as a "straw poll", which would generally indicate that the normal demographic weightings were not applied. If so, the results are literally worthless, and the media should be ashamed of themselves for misleading their readers and viewers.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41259460069486039052014-02-25T09:52:32.196+00:002014-02-25T09:52:32.196+00:00I've just remembered P&J carried out a pol...I've just remembered P&J carried out a poll last year on Independence for the Northern Isles. The breakdown of ages polled set alarm bells ringing. <br /><br />http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-new-flag-for-scotland/Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66691548715717476022014-02-25T08:27:34.827+00:002014-02-25T08:27:34.827+00:00No, it includes Don't Knows. The current figu...No, it includes Don't Knows. The current figures are No 48.7%, Yes 34.7% (lead 14.0%), Undecided/Won't Vote 16.6%.<br /><br />Excluding Don't Knows, it's No 58.4%, Yes 41.6% (lead 16.8%).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58652024618525056952014-02-25T08:20:12.385+00:002014-02-25T08:20:12.385+00:00James, are those figures for the elad excluding do...James, are those figures for the elad excluding don't knows?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35354287581701852812014-02-25T06:18:03.339+00:002014-02-25T06:18:03.339+00:00Thanks, Patrick.
TUD : Thanks for the information...Thanks, Patrick.<br /><br />TUD : Thanks for the information. Crikey. At this rate we'll have cake shops joining the British Polling Council soon.<br /><br />Might still be a marginal improvement on YouGov, though.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25192150916015451662014-02-25T03:04:25.481+00:002014-02-25T03:04:25.481+00:00The SNP have a 'poll of polls' that shows ...The SNP have a 'poll of polls' that shows a clear trend towards Yes as well James.<br /><br />I've been trying to find a graph that I saw on-line a few days ago, that shows the ups and down of both the Yes and No polling figures.<br />It has a black line through both of these figures charting an average percentage.<br /><br />It shows a clear downward course for No, as well as an equally clear upward course for Yes.<br /><br />Keep it up and both lines will inevitably converge. <br /><br />If I do find the chart James, I will post it on your 'Scot goes Pop'Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57909412159247909772014-02-24T23:05:55.610+00:002014-02-24T23:05:55.610+00:00The problem with polls, if I may say so, is the la...The problem with polls, if I may say so, is the lag time between research and publication.<br /><br />For instance, it seems to me that Cameron has shot himself in the foot yet again today.<br /><br />Assume that that is true.<br /><br />How much of a lead time will we have to endure before the polls either prove me right or I'm shot down in flames?<br /><br />What we need to know are whether what we think are significant interventions, (and no, David Bowie isn't one,) and the time that takes to percolate into voter intentions. I suppose I want more certainty in the statistics and that is just not possible, else daily polls.<br /><br />douglas clarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11422060678908705962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70358071863373895532014-02-24T19:02:35.819+00:002014-02-24T19:02:35.819+00:00Encouraging James.
The P&J voodoo poll you me...Encouraging James.<br /><br />The P&J voodoo poll you mentioned previously was apparently done by Ideas In Partnership (http://tinyurl.com/ph5urkg), a company that are 'experts in entrepreneurship and have used these skills throughout the UK'. Hilariously one of their other 'skills' is running bridalwear events.<br /><br />Unsurprisingly they've become PB's favourite pollster.<br /><br />Keep up the good work!Theuniondivviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14835852343211594463noreply@blogger.com