tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7928366362366349260..comments2024-03-28T18:01:59.712+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: A wander through the YouGov and Panelbase datasetsJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5484838777485289892014-09-08T14:48:02.653+01:002014-09-08T14:48:02.653+01:00Thanks Sandy. Tonight's TNS might provide some...Thanks Sandy. Tonight's TNS might provide some welcome relief for Prof Curtice's PoP but likely also to boost ScotGoesPop. Everyone's a winner. ;-)Briannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34034967891977048212014-09-08T14:43:39.782+01:002014-09-08T14:43:39.782+01:00James Coleman - That isn't the first time I ha...James Coleman - That isn't the first time I have heard such a number.<br /><br />Will be even more interesting once we find out the numbers of new voters/lapsed new voters as well.<br /><br />FT.com is going mental, George Robertson has an article up, horrible stuff.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21621579561558641142014-09-08T14:36:28.442+01:002014-09-08T14:36:28.442+01:00Brian:
I've been keeping track of the poll-of...Brian:<br /><br />I've been keeping track of the poll-of-polls updates as James has published them. I think I've got them all in this plot: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/18361224/nolead-sep8.png<br /><br />A surprisingly linear trend. Recent points have been flattened by the presence of some much older polls in the PoP, hopefully that will all change of the next few days.Sandy Brownleehttp://www.brownlees.net/2014/05/yes.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22482710966545922052014-09-08T13:57:01.085+01:002014-09-08T13:57:01.085+01:00Re Panelbase and the 278 Y weighted down to 221 Y ...Re Panelbase and the 278 Y weighted down to 221 Y because of EU2014 vote 'remembrance'. <br />On a rough calculation of say 1000 polled, and putting these votes back in as unweighted, the 475 Y becomes 532 Y, ie 47.5% Y goes to 53.2% Y. <br /><br />Interesting: even if not entirely accurate. <br /><br />And see graphs of ICM polls pre 1979 Devo Ref.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/JamesCo77979225/status/490489074021851137/photo/1James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50033548085580090992014-09-08T13:16:46.571+01:002014-09-08T13:16:46.571+01:00The last TNS poll had Yes: 45% No: 55% excluding d...The last TNS poll had Yes: 45% No: 55% excluding don't knows and unlikely voters. The fieldwork will be out of date so may have missed a very recent shift to yes, but it should be interesting anyway. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79754977713569181412014-09-08T12:51:03.390+01:002014-09-08T12:51:03.390+01:00Per PB, TNS are publishing tonight, rather than to...Per PB, TNS are publishing tonight, rather than tomorrow as originally planned.EdinburghPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02607333526580186251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72356106112791356952014-09-08T12:16:31.244+01:002014-09-08T12:16:31.244+01:00Alastair writes "They who live by Murdoch die...Alastair writes "They who live by Murdoch die by him. Scotland, take note."<br /><br />Well said and you might note that the Scottish Sun today mocks Better Together as the Sun prepares to bow to its master and endorse Yes.<br /><br /> I also though agree with the contributor who said Murdoch is primarily in this to attack his enemies in England (which is currently just about the whole English political class apart from Nigel Farage). True enough. But that does not mean he won't expect a reward and influence. He always does.<br /><br />I do have to correct my statement though that Salmond was Murdoch's only ally left. I was wrong, Farage is a critical ally of Murdoch's too. And Farage certainly benefits from Yes (even if he is notionally No) for a Yes win is likely to neutralise Labour in England. Note too Murdoch is a passionate opponent of the EU so don't expect him to encourage any European aspirations in Scotland.<br /><br />Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84655300485457222752014-09-08T11:11:21.357+01:002014-09-08T11:11:21.357+01:00James, how does your PoP look inc DKs? I was enjoy...James, how does your PoP look inc DKs? I was enjoying following it as it dipped from > N+20 to ducking under N+10.Briannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23662918482080290632014-09-08T10:38:35.004+01:002014-09-08T10:38:35.004+01:00saynotoyesmen,
my perception is that this poll ha...saynotoyesmen,<br /><br />my perception is that this poll has demoralised many No voters, rather than fighting back they are just shrugging shoulders?<br /><br />also the panic and infighting inside BT is allowing media and soft No's to turn against themChris Knowlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15392988355775683172014-09-08T10:38:33.363+01:002014-09-08T10:38:33.363+01:00saynotoyesmen,
my perception is that this poll ha...saynotoyesmen,<br /><br />my perception is that this poll has demoralised many No voters, rather than fighting back they are just shrugging shoulders?<br /><br />also the panic and infighting inside BT is allowing media and soft No's to turn against themChris Knowlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26565221983886882822014-09-08T09:55:02.102+01:002014-09-08T09:55:02.102+01:00If Murdoch helps win the vote for 'Yes' th...If Murdoch helps win the vote for 'Yes' then everybody on the 'Yes' side should be overjoyed. Nothing could in any way take the shine of a 'Yes' vote.<br />It isn't a pact with the devil after all.<br />Grow a set and celebrate when the morning of the 19th dawns and we are heading for Independence.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04565579919684172507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81201646857102998452014-09-08T09:51:52.068+01:002014-09-08T09:51:52.068+01:00this poll will fire No voters out of bed on the da...this poll will fire No voters out of bed on the day, that's for sure :-)<br /><br />237 hours to go:-)saynotoyesmennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80572402353415539972014-09-08T09:26:38.344+01:002014-09-08T09:26:38.344+01:00Just looking at what's happening on the pound ...Just looking at what's happening on the pound now the London markets are open. In round figures, it's down about a cent on the dollar over the past 24 hrs and between 3 and 4 cents over the past month, with analysts suggesting the Scottish factor as the main driver. However, that is against the backdrop of a steady climb since the end of 2013. This past month has seen it lose only about 2/5 of that climb. As such, the constitutional uncertainty could be seen as doing the UK a favour to limit over-valuation and effect on exports. In consequence, unless we see a much sharper fall then contrary to what I suggested in above posts, the markets may not be that strong a driver towards currency union. They'll already have factored much of the uncertainty in: the bookies certainly have, with today's Oddschecker for several of them falling below 2:1 on yes (down from about 6:1 not long ago). <br /><br />On Murdoch, if he does come out for Yes this week, let's remember that the polls preceded his tweets, so don't let him run off with the prize. They who live by Murdoch die by him. Scotland, take note. Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26540669157074597442014-09-08T08:56:01.595+01:002014-09-08T08:56:01.595+01:00"but I think I would be YES if it freed Scotl...<i>"but I think I would be YES if it freed Scotland from the scourge of Murdoch."</i><br /><br />Hahahahahahahahahahahahaaa!!!<br /><br /><br />Stop wasting everyone's time as your feeble attempts to troll this site have become frankly pitiful. You clearly have gone round the bend if you expect anyone here to seriously believe that hysterical shrieking nonsense.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37651916735784736072014-09-08T08:24:20.452+01:002014-09-08T08:24:20.452+01:00"but if he hadn't petulantly banned me fr...<i>"but if he hadn't petulantly banned me from his site for life"</i><br /><br />You would have wasted a great deal of your valuable time on a westmisnter bubble site dominated by out of touch tory twits, bigots and racists who have been proved wrong about the independence referendum time after time after time.<br /><br />Amazing weekend for campaigning with the icing on the cake being the No campaign and the westminster media going into complete meltdown and panic mode. <br /><br />Again, that outright panic was predicted on here multiple times and so it has proved. <br /><br />The spectacle of the BBC and Sky News trying to 'report' the latest developments has been absolutely hilarious. They all look shellshocked, utterly bewildered with some of them looking near to tears. Apart from revealing just how 'impartial' they truly are, you just know they were relying on some of the usual suspects like Curtice and Kellner who previously insisted that there was nothing to worry about. Not any more though. LOL <br /><br />Not once did it occur to them that the precise same thing happened in 2011 with the same out of touch pundits, pollsters and westminster media finding themselves completely at odds with the reality on the ground and having to eat their words and staggering complacency as the landslide took hold.<br /><br />The simply do not get it. <br /><br />The westminster media are all but an irrelevance to the Independence referendum. The levels of trust in them are even more laughable than the levels of trust scotland holds for Cameron, Clegg and little Ed. <br /><br />Nor will the polling do anything other belatedly try to catch up to what's happening on the ground just like in 2011. (where it never fully did even at the end)<br /><br />These last 10 days will see the fruition and culmination of a broad based and diverse grass-roots Yes campaign that has been YEARS in the making. Everything is in place and we are utterly determined to put the case for a better scotland directly to the scottish people. Friends, family, work colleagues, young and old, rich and poor, Everyone knows a Yes or a No in scotland so fatuous and witless scaremongering was NEVER going to work. We simply do not need the westminster dominated media/press and never did. Why on earth would we bother with a distrusted 'middleman' when we can talk directly to scots across the country? Something we have been doing for years in ever more huge numbers in the past six months.<br /><br />Meanwhile the panicking No campaign is sending for the westminster 'cavalry' MPs to save the No campaigning by popping to scotland and lecturing scots on why we are better together. This after securing their <b>10%</b> pay rise. <br /><br />ROFL<br /><br />Truly unspoofable, and yes, we predicted this as well because, you guessed it, the precise same thing happened in 2011 as the panic set in and the idiots from westminster sent their most comical 'helpers' to scotland to 'turn everything around'. <br />Didn't quite work out that was though, did it? ;-)Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16159733221703950872014-09-08T02:18:16.192+01:002014-09-08T02:18:16.192+01:00Pantone300 - as I was posting the above you nipped...Pantone300 - as I was posting the above you nipped in and put your finger on what was in my mind, but had not quite brought to articulation. Well said. Mind you good folks - both Yessers and Noers alike in this discussion - we'd better all be aware of the danger of getting sucked into conspiracy theories over this next 10 days. Recall Kipling (whose mother was one of the MacDonald sisters): <br /><br />If you can keep your head when all about you <br /> Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, <br />If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,<br /> But make allowance for their doubting too;<br /><br />Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82091352813450976362014-09-08T02:13:49.952+01:002014-09-08T02:13:49.952+01:00Expat - Murdoch's psychohistory is too complex...Expat - Murdoch's psychohistory is too complex to explore in a format like this, but the Calvinist backdrop, to which Murdoch alluded in what I quoted from Levenson (in comments to the previous item on this website that you have picked up on), is possibly significant in understanding his ambivalent relationship to the Scottish nation and the British state. Too complex to go into here, but you'll find threads of it in one of my Bella articles from a few weeks back - http://goo.gl/yec5pN .<br /><br />Meanwhile, as the £ is apparently wobbling as the markets open, let me given a discussion touched on here (I think it was) a few days ago, share a post I just made to Craig Murray's reflection on what he's been picking up from Scot Goes Pop this past 24 hrs. Murray concludes: "There is at last some understanding that Yes will win: the penny has not yet dropped that this is a revolutionary moment, not a polite constitutional shuffle." His piece is at http://goo.gl/TNdjnV . <br /><br />My comment, slightly tangential but triggered by his focus on the failure of elite perceptions:<br /><br />"From speaking at both a predominantly No and a Yes event this last week I’ve been struck by how much the currency has become a fetish (in the anthropological sense of something taking on a symbolical value beyond actual value) by an elite social class that signally fails to grasp what is going on. Currency is also being used as a weapon – but a boomerang as illustrated by the pound’s fall in today’s markets. The solution is simple. Don’t mess around with offering us all powers except defence and foreign affairs. It’s too late for that, and it only reveals the extent to which this is a bid to hold on to an imperial past that avoids the need to examine identit(ies) in the rUK. Instead, stabilise the markets by rapidly agreeing continued currency sharing in all but name and with due safeguards for the rUK economy. Signal the intention, if Scotland votes Yes, to bring about a just amicable settlement, one in which Scotland will willingly shoulder a fair share of the debt."<br /><br />Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43747271143080174982014-09-08T00:25:17.622+01:002014-09-08T00:25:17.622+01:00Another theory: The YouGov poll is an attempt to c...Another theory: The YouGov poll is an attempt to cause the £ to go into a temporary freefall aimed at terrifying the electorate. Another poll will then be released showing we have all taken fright and are voting no again. £ stabilises. No secures victory.<br /><br />Just another theory, not saying that I believe it, but tbh wouldn't put anything past them.Pantone300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43042194643372068142014-09-08T00:18:09.266+01:002014-09-08T00:18:09.266+01:00Phil : As far as I know YouGov aren't weightin...Phil : As far as I know YouGov aren't weighting by region. But there may be upsides to that as well as downsides - the effect of Survation's regional weighting seems completely random at times.<br /><br />Denise : Smithson is right, of course, but if he hadn't petulantly banned me from his site for life, what I'd be asking him is "so what?" It would be very peculiar if YouGov weren't correcting for the under-representation of low income people in their raw data.<br /><br />Calum : Survation will tell us a lot, but I'm not sure TNS will be of much use, simply because their fieldwork will be so out of date. If YouGov are to be believed, a third of the 12% swing happened within the last week.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28780249205311303222014-09-07T23:56:04.709+01:002014-09-07T23:56:04.709+01:00Expat, I think Murdoch is only interested in Scotl...Expat, I think Murdoch is only interested in Scotland to the extent to which a Yes will cause consternation in London. That is where his interest lies and will continue to lie. If he gets his revenge I think it's the last we'll hear of him in relation to events in Scotland.Briannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60076880993672833622014-09-07T23:37:07.127+01:002014-09-07T23:37:07.127+01:00Chris Knowles said...
"Rupert Murdoch just tw...Chris Knowles said...<br />"Rupert Murdoch just tweeted that Yes internal pols showing 54Y 46N.<br /><br />Not sure what to make of this as old rupert is a very shady character."<br /><br />You bet. He will make his play next week. He thinks he's winning. He may well be. <br /><br />DENISE though on different sides I am delighted you agree with me I may be a NO but I think I would be YES if it freed Scotland from the scourge of Murdoch. Absolutely clearly coming as I have predicted on this site for weeks. He lost England now he wants you. (At least as far as he can neutrlalise his opponents in England)<br /><br />ALASTAIR, intriguing but I don't think Murdoch in formal mode at Leveson is remotely useful. That is pure PR. He continues to tweet his intentions clearly.<br /><br />MICK I hear you and we are on the same side in one respect but look at his tweets. The new ones!<br /><br />Oh and Alastair. If this turns out to be big, as it probably already is, I think your idea of a peace-making (?) 'dram' after the event for old SGP sparring partners is not such a bad<br />idea. Hell, bridges will need to be builtExpatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55193905666764676532014-09-07T23:11:22.937+01:002014-09-07T23:11:22.937+01:00I sense that something very strange is happening h...I sense that something very strange is happening here with YouGov. The new TNS and Survation polls should help make the picture clearer. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46304128839752660942014-09-07T22:17:30.974+01:002014-09-07T22:17:30.974+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.dalriadan39https://www.blogger.com/profile/11064346214582902187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42262548326389069882014-09-07T22:17:29.089+01:002014-09-07T22:17:29.089+01:00Fraser Nelson on Sky News today was at pains to po...Fraser Nelson on Sky News today was at pains to point out (stated it twice in one interview) that the Yes lead would grow. It was very intriguing to watch. <br /><br />I hear the Sun will out for Yes this week?<br /><br />Rupert Murdoch claims he has tweeted fugures of Yes internal polling. dalriadan39https://www.blogger.com/profile/11064346214582902187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91918523983247001022014-09-07T22:17:01.854+01:002014-09-07T22:17:01.854+01:00Mike Smithson is tweeting that No is comfortably a...Mike Smithson is tweeting that No is comfortably ahead on YouGov unweighted numbers. He knows better so what is he up to?Denisenoreply@blogger.com