tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7400529183988318852..comments2024-03-29T14:28:34.129+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP lead by 15% in new Poll of PollsJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13842037526015123592015-03-09T19:08:58.540+00:002015-03-09T19:08:58.540+00:00I'd grudge the Tories a seat further north les...I'd grudge the Tories a seat further north less than I grudge them any of the three in the extreme south. Not only are they geographically big, so spoil the map, they make it look as if Scotland doesn't start until about Lanarkshire. Oh yes and I live in one of them.<br /><br />All these years, and I still might not get to live in an SNP WM constituency. Even though the one I voted in for nearly 55 years will probably fall. (Bye bye Frank Roy.)Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28865622145451172812015-03-09T16:35:03.887+00:002015-03-09T16:35:03.887+00:00Those figures (if applied to all Scotland) give me...Those figures (if applied to all Scotland) give me:<br />SNP 57<br />Lib Dem 1<br />Berwick Rox Selkirk is a 3 way split, Tories just pipping SNP with those numbers.Wee Jock Elliothttps://twitter.com/WeeJockElliotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47811893465969684632015-03-09T16:17:03.615+00:002015-03-09T16:17:03.615+00:00Ashcroft subsample:
54% SNP
21% Lab
16% Con
5% Lib...Ashcroft subsample:<br />54% SNP<br />21% Lab<br />16% Con<br />5% Lib<br />3% UKIP<br />1% Green<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65913028346564787672015-03-09T15:53:05.878+00:002015-03-09T15:53:05.878+00:00I made my own predictor using James's poll of ...I made my own predictor using James's poll of polls, the 2010 results, and the Ashcroft polls and get the following seat numbers:-<br /><br />SNP 54<br />LAB 2<br />Lib Dem 2<br />Con 1<br /><br />That's assuming poll weightings are valid. If they're downweighting too much then it could be almost a clean sweep with only the northern isles holding out.Wee Jock Elliothttps://twitter.com/WeeJockElliotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69249307203384831142015-03-09T15:34:08.894+00:002015-03-09T15:34:08.894+00:00Just for fun I played around with the numbers on E...Just for fun I played around with the numbers on Electoral Calculus and tried to see what the lowest level of SNP support which would return all 59 seats for the SNP. I managed it with 50% for SNP, 20% for Labour, 15% for Cons and 5% for each of the rest. Anyone manage it with any smaller number for SNP? <br /><br />It might be a bit of wishful thinking but it doesn't seem too far away from this Populus sub-sample.<br /><br />EppyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14875461079499452772015-03-09T15:21:34.504+00:002015-03-09T15:21:34.504+00:00I just don't know any more. Remember this? htt...I just don't know any more. Remember this? http://wingsoverscotland.com/how-many-chickens/<br /><br />That was mid-April of course, not March. But it was a near-incredulous response to a poll showing the SNP on course for 63 Holyrood seats. The reality was 69.<br /><br />I'm really frustrated today. There are stacks of leaflets to be delivered and I'm laid up with the flu. But on the other hand these leaflets are not languishing in my garage, as they would have been even a year ago. A friend has comandeered my book of route maps and is busy doling them out to a small army of eager volunteers that has materialised almost from nowhere. The village is nearly done, she says, and she can maybe get some of the rural routes organised that need a car. "They're really enthusiastic," she says.<br /><br />It's a whole new world out there.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42290584149045146412015-03-09T14:53:54.717+00:002015-03-09T14:53:54.717+00:00Just had a look at the Daily Redcoat on-line (yes ...Just had a look at the Daily Redcoat on-line (yes I know)<br /><br />Wanted to see how they would spin and hype the Weekend Conference, but all I could see was an article about how Kezia would be helping the poorest kids, subject to approval.<br /><br />Ok, I added the 'subject to approval' part, but only because I know Labour Double-Speak.<br /><br />If the Redcoat doesn't even try to spin it, it must have been as dire as other reports tell us.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3043659133640547792015-03-09T14:33:07.038+00:002015-03-09T14:33:07.038+00:00That gives a 44/11/3/1 seat split on Electoral Cal...That gives a 44/11/3/1 seat split on Electoral Calculus. I'd put that at the upper limit of what the SNP could expect.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62558733179430385392015-03-09T14:29:22.202+00:002015-03-09T14:29:22.202+00:00It's mind-boggling that Miliband is polling lo...It's mind-boggling that Miliband is polling lower than Clegg in Scotland.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8471831298428623672015-03-09T12:07:01.475+00:002015-03-09T12:07:01.475+00:00LOL! I'm going to use that!LOL! I'm going to use that!Phil Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12929452799095590860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42738892188105780782015-03-09T09:46:55.646+00:002015-03-09T09:46:55.646+00:00What stupendous popularity!
LOL
Another triumph ...What stupendous popularity!<br /><br /><b>LOL</b><br /><br />Another triumph for the cowardly fop, calamity Clegg and little Ed. :-DMick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56195574800698573552015-03-09T09:45:16.805+00:002015-03-09T09:45:16.805+00:00Populus sub-sample: SNP 49, Lab 23, Con 12, LD 12....Populus sub-sample: SNP 49, Lab 23, Con 12, LD 12.<br /><br />http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf<br /><br />Populus are now giving higher sub-sample scores for the SNP than YouGov because there is practically no down-weighting in their polls.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23945406010681777892015-03-09T09:22:48.152+00:002015-03-09T09:22:48.152+00:00Extrapolating long term trend to May 7th
SNP: 43....Extrapolating long term trend to May 7th<br /><br />SNP: 43.5%<br />Labour: 26%<br />Conservatives: 18%<br />Lib Dems: 5.5%<br />Greens: 3.5%<br />UKIP: 3.5%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36774041472801523992015-03-09T08:05:53.077+00:002015-03-09T08:05:53.077+00:00Sure there's noise due to being subsamples, bu...Sure there's noise due to being subsamples, but a sudden drop for all three amigos and notably for DC who's actually been seen as the least worst of them in terms of party leadership?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.statgeek.co.uk/charts/scotland-leadership-ratings-six-month.png" rel="nofollow">http://www.statgeek.co.uk/charts/scotland-leadership-ratings-six-month.png</a><br /><br />From Statgeek of UKPRScottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28341311140373015182015-03-09T07:58:30.602+00:002015-03-09T07:58:30.602+00:00Dave just scored his worst sat rating in Scotland ...Dave just scored his worst sat rating in Scotland in UK Yougov polls.<br /><br />Maybe a sign his 'Don't let the Jocks get a say in UK governance' approach is bearing fruit?Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46693141054418122032015-03-09T06:16:00.524+00:002015-03-09T06:16:00.524+00:00The sub-sample results over-rate the Tories by a f...The sub-sample results over-rate the Tories by a few points. They are down compared to 2010 in every single one of the 24 constituencies polled by Ashcroft, albeit their decrease is normally less than that suffered by Labour or the Lib Dems. The Tories are also significantly lower in the Scottish national polling than in the results implied from the GB polling.<br /><br />In fairness to the Tories and Davidson, this may be due to some Tories in hopeless seats voting tactically rather than a further erosion in their support, but there is no credible sign of a Scottish Tory revival. They may gain a seat in May compared to 2010, but that would be due to the collapse of others rather than anything done by them.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66435473038956932572015-03-09T05:20:08.939+00:002015-03-09T05:20:08.939+00:00"SNP 42.1% (-1.7)
Labour 26.9% (+3.0)
Conserv..."SNP 42.1% (-1.7)<br />Labour 26.9% (+3.0)<br />Conservatives 18.7% (+1.3)<br />Liberal Democrats 5.4% (-1.5)<br />Greens 3.6% (+0.3)<br />UKIP 3.0% (-1.5)"<br /><br />Good news for the Scottish Conservatives. That percentage is in line with their aggregate polling average from Electoral Calculus. They're up, which isn't surprising given Ruth Davidson is the only credible opposition leader left standing against the SNP.<br /><br />Labour are a shower, the LDems don't exist anymore and the Greens are signed up to the SNPs YES revivalism band.<br />Dean MacKinnon-Thomsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08221192592535723681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74854451699556326012015-03-09T00:49:09.186+00:002015-03-09T00:49:09.186+00:00I'd advise avoiding betting off the back of th...I'd advise avoiding betting off the back of that Opinium subsample ;)Pulpstar's bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10851577666051111373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79643002804883003812015-03-08T23:31:44.495+00:002015-03-08T23:31:44.495+00:00Although I think John Smith is hugely overrated, K...Although I think John Smith is hugely overrated, Kenny Farq's assessment of Murph's speech reminds me a little of <a href="http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/2009/03/10" rel="nofollow">this</a> Calvin and Hobbes.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78990262314563614892015-03-08T20:35:01.634+00:002015-03-08T20:35:01.634+00:00If the Opinium poll is downweighting the average, ...If the Opinium poll is downweighting the average, is it likely we're still talking a 16-18% lead for the SNP?FitzyMannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22794471318020370422015-03-08T20:28:37.888+00:002015-03-08T20:28:37.888+00:00had a look at the Opinium tables, and I for one ,c...had a look at the Opinium tables, and I for one ,cannot make heads nor tails of it ..Are they saying labour is ahead in Scotland ? by a large margin too ...Seriously deluded or maybe not ?<br />Can some-one explain it to me ?ylee coyotenoreply@blogger.com