tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7368657851498757107..comments2024-03-29T05:53:21.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: To what extent will the next Yes campaign be a "Remain" campaign?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13532079208033272482017-02-14T13:03:19.062+00:002017-02-14T13:03:19.062+00:00The thing is - I don't think it will cost us v...The thing is - I don't think it will cost us votes elsewhere. At the very least there is no polling evidence either way. Despite everything that has happened the polls haven't moved that much. Hopefully the 49% will be confirmed elsewhere, but that's still a minority, or a tie.<br /><br />EEA/EFTA neatly deals with a substantial number of scare stories, which have been, are being and will be used. One of them is even true - A49 requiring a majority vote. Why would we not explore an option that removes the ability for our opponent to muddy the waters with endless scares? Why would we not explore that?<br /><br />Quite apart from this Robin McAlpine is correct that there almost certainly isn't time, or a mechanism, to maintain seamless EU membership between any Yes vote and the date of Brexit. We are going to be out, and we need a suitable holding pen or bridging option in order to maintain single market access for however long it takes to rejoin the EU. <br /><br />It seems blindingly obvious what that option is. And if it increases the Yes vote, even betterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73968995568560038192017-02-13T16:23:38.198+00:002017-02-13T16:23:38.198+00:00I just think this is all wrong. There's no qu...I just think this is all wrong. There's no question of "threats", but realistically, it is simply a fact that we're not going to win in Shetland. I doubt if there would then be a push for Shetland to leave Scotland, and if there was, I doubt if it would succeed. You disagree, and as you're a Shetlander and I'm not, I have to accept there's a chance you're right because there's no polling evidence available. But even if you <i>are</i> right, I don't see what we can do about it. It certainly wouldn't make sense to adopt a European policy in a doomed attempt to win Shetland if that was going to cost us votes elsewhere.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24497617606527477592017-02-13T12:49:19.002+00:002017-02-13T12:49:19.002+00:00For these voters (whom I disagree with and am very...For these voters (whom I disagree with and am very exasperated with), it's like saying "hey, you wanna come and see some puppies? get in the van - I promise you can get out later if you want."commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27122850939303593732017-02-13T12:47:34.877+00:002017-02-13T12:47:34.877+00:00"Neutralise the EU issue with a subsequent re..."Neutralise the EU issue with a subsequent referendum" doesn't work.<br /><br />It aims to fool the Yes/Leave=>No voters with a bit of misdirection.<br /><br />The trick is that you tell them "EU membership is up in the air, we are just voting for independence this time. Later on we'll decide on the EU separately", hoping that they don't notice Scotland voted 62% in favour of staying in the EU.<br /><br />The targeted voters meanwhile are able to think ahead like actual human beings, and notice that the promise of an EUref is not relevant given the likely result of said referendum - that we'd end up in the EU.<br />commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64448283391646739702017-02-12T23:04:20.913+00:002017-02-12T23:04:20.913+00:00Morag
That can be read as an imperialist view. It...Morag<br /><br />That can be read as an imperialist view. It irks me, and I've been in the SNP for 30 years. Not a great way to maximise the vote. <br /><br />I observe Faeroe is moving towards full independence. That's a 200nm EEZ, to median line, not 12. <br /><br />We need to win by persuasion and an offer that has positive attraction, not by threats <br /><br />Derick fae Yellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44124986764844906762017-02-12T16:08:55.871+00:002017-02-12T16:08:55.871+00:00I'll say again. If Scotland starts blowing lu...I'll say again. If Scotland starts blowing lukewarm on EU membership, talks about EFTA instead or having another EU referendum after a Yes vote, all goodwill from the EU will evaporate. We'll be fighting the indyref against jeers from the unionists about calling a referendum to stop Scotland being dragged out of the EU and then proposing jumping out of the EU anyway, and against frosty, hostile rhetoric from the EU countries.<br /><br />I see no prospect at all of winning in that situation. We know there is a substantial majority in Scotland for staying in the EU. We need to work on getting as many of these people on board for Yes, not throwing away that advantage.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70427511690098713712017-02-12T16:05:01.155+00:002017-02-12T16:05:01.155+00:00The amount of sea territory that would accrue to S...The amount of sea territory that would accrue to Shetland if it was an enclave of England in Scotland's territorial waters is pretty small and doesn't have any major resources in it.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59755781995261516682017-02-12T16:02:42.027+00:002017-02-12T16:02:42.027+00:00I believe the electorate is smart enough to be abl...<i>I believe the electorate is smart enough to be able to understand a more nuanced approach...</i><br /><br />I honestly think there's a problem with that. Of course many people do understand a nuanced approach but I think thoughtful people aren't going to be so hard to persuade anyway. But there are many many people who latch on to a single point and decide on that. They're difficult to reason with. I do believe the number of people who will grab on to "stay in the EU" and vote Yes on that basis is way larger than the number of people who might vote no to that but who are potentially amenable to being talked round by "nuanced" arguments about EFTA.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6093625569894939842017-02-12T12:42:47.558+00:002017-02-12T12:42:47.558+00:0035 years being brought up and living in Shetland. ...35 years being brought up and living in Shetland. 10 of which were actively spent campaigning and twice standing for the SNP does not lead to quite as much confidence. I know people who will vote No to Independence because of the CFP and who would be persuadable if we are out of it, even temporarily.<br /><br />0.5% of the population, but how much of the territorial waters? I've never tried working it out but maybe 30%. And how much of the oil reserve. Nearer 70%. It matters. <br /><br />But above all this is not about what scenario might play out. But about reducing the ground our opponents have to scare and smear. <br /><br />We need a much sharper offer than in 2014, and to minimise areas which are open to whataboutery.<br /><br />We will have a Scottish currency<br />We will have a central bank<br />We will take no debt share without an acceptable asset share<br />We will remain in the Single Market <br /><br />Just yesterday there's auld Brillo pad twittering about the "queue" to join the EU. Comments on the famous "Spanish Veto" abound. It's mince, but it works. Which is why our opponents use it.<br /><br />Sidestep the lot. Derick fae Yellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84238088714546989852017-02-12T11:25:37.201+00:002017-02-12T11:25:37.201+00:00With respect, we don't have to win Shetland (i...With respect, we don't have to win Shetland (it has less than 0.5% of the population), and we almost certainly won't win Shetland no matter what we do. The aim of the exercise will be to cut the No lead there. "Partition" can't realistically happen without yet another referendum in Shetland on whether to leave Scotland. I'm very confident that a) it would never get to that point, and b) such a referendum would have the right result.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85787727905462626702017-02-12T11:07:07.129+00:002017-02-12T11:07:07.129+00:00The Scottish Government has correctly focused on s...The Scottish Government has correctly focused on single market membership, as that is the absolute in necessity to avoid the economic damage of Brexit. Plus it guarantees the four freedoms.<br />It's the "big tent" option which unites the desires of people who want EFTA, EU or (like me) aren't bothered. Big tent = maximised Yes vote, surely? We all want to win a Yes vote!<br /><br />There are some very vehement comments above, but shouting doesn't convert anyone.<br /><br />There are a number of Project Fear scares about the EU. True or not, they work. Why not simply sidestep them? "Spanish veto"? Pfft. "Queue" pfft!<br /><br />Robin McAlpine's point about what is possible in the time available is a good one. Say we have, and win, a referendum in Autumn 2018. We will have at best seven months to complete the institutions of the Scottish State to a standard that would allow seamless EU membership. It's not possible. <br /><br />Therefore we will be out of the EU even if for a few years. We absolutely cannot be out of the single market. It seems obvious that the bridge must be EFTA. <br /><br />Austria, Finland and Sweden have all trod the EFTA to EU route. Yes we would need to vote on it but what's to fear from democracy?<br /><br />And. We must win in Shetland. Being out of the Common Fisheries Policy is the key to that. RUK will attempt Partition if they think they can get away with it.<br /><br />Out of the CFP even if we then join the EU thereafter is a much stronger negotiating position. We have to win Shetland. Clair Ridge folks. <br /><br /><br /><br />Derick fae Yellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81523764993106927922017-02-12T10:47:50.907+00:002017-02-12T10:47:50.907+00:00James,
Thanks for clarifying the 16 / 17 year old...James,<br /><br />Thanks for clarifying the 16 / 17 year old issue. Whilst I am no statistician or the like, is a sample size of 5 reflect the views of all 16 / 17 year olds? Seems too narrow a data set to reach any conclusions from.<br /><br />Best wishes, you run a fascinating web site. douglas clarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11422060678908705962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-92151816510339004122017-02-12T09:51:56.331+00:002017-02-12T09:51:56.331+00:00James,
turnout in the eu ref was much lower than i...James,<br />turnout in the eu ref was much lower than in the Indy ref.I feel this must be important but I'm not quite sure how and why.Do you have any views on this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32242286616900261832017-02-12T08:43:55.105+00:002017-02-12T08:43:55.105+00:00So yesterday was the first time I'd commented ...So yesterday was the first time I'd commented on here and it's already clear a couple of people aren't capable of calm debate. Not a great start. If this is how you respond to pro-indy people who you don't 100% agree with, I dread to think how you engage with the folk whose minds we need to change.<br /><br />To be clear, I am not arguing that EFTA is a better solution than full EU membership. I voted remain and I would favour an indy Scotland being a full EU member. But this is about winning indyref2, and we need to be smarter than last time, where our opponents were able to scream "plan B?" for months. Which, like it or not, worked. For every friendly hint from Brussels that we'll be treated favourably, there will be some EU beareucrat giving a technical answer which the media will lap up. We need to present credible options. We need answers to the follow up questions that we had no answers to last time, or we'll lose again.<br /><br />As much as I agree there's doubt over how GERS figures can be extrapolated to an indy Scotland's situation, a blank argument that it is irrelevant will not win over previous No's. Surely I'm stating the obvious here? <br /><br />The argument that we'll trade with rUK based on whatever deal they agree with the EU also concerns me greatly. If you're an undecided and your main concern is trade with rUK, the worry would be: if it's a bad deal, what will the economic impact be in an indy Scotland? On the other hand, if it's a good deal, maybe indy isn't needed? These are the questions that need clear, convincing answers, not just assertions. I believe the electorate is smart enough to be able to understand a more nuanced approach, where options are laid out, and I believe some previous No's would take more kindly to that than to the "there will be a currency union"/"there is no deficit" approach, which had already seen us fail once.Colinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56553030658954051882017-02-11T22:54:54.893+00:002017-02-11T22:54:54.893+00:00Great comments and I'm with Rolfe all the way....Great comments and I'm with Rolfe all the way. Excellent stuff, clearly argued. On the EFTA thing, there are additional reasons why it's a non-starter, as Arc of Prosperity makes plain.<br /><br />http://www.arcofprosperity.org/aiming-for-a-norwegian-solution-for-scotland-would-be-disastrous/smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60805705021831311022017-02-11T20:18:30.005+00:002017-02-11T20:18:30.005+00:00Colin, "eventual full EU membership" - w...Colin, "eventual full EU membership" - what sort of crazy talk is that?<br /><br />Here we have a golden opportunity to retain our current EU citizenship, our right to travel and study and reside in the EU, and take our seat at the top table in our own right. We get a direct Scottish voice in EU affairs, and our veto, and our turn at the presidency and everything. We haven't had these last things up to now. You can have no idea that they'd be bad for Scotland, because they're out of our experience.<br /><br />You want to throw that chance away, snub the EU leaders who seem ready to welcome us rapidly to remain in the union, and switch it for a position where we pay in but don't have any direct say in decision-making. With the caveat that maybe we could think about taking them up on their kind offer some decades in the future? What are you smoking?Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30236604878841309522017-02-11T20:11:15.881+00:002017-02-11T20:11:15.881+00:00The many intelligent comments above have crystalli...The many intelligent comments above have crystallised something for me. We tend to think of the anti-EU group currently agitating for a swift Scottish EU referendum as if they're all going to vote No unless they get this undertaking. They may well be telling the pollsters and the canvassers that that's exactly what they'll do, at the moment. But will they?<br /><br />Some will, of course. Those for whom a Yes vote in 2014 was cast more because they believed the Better Together lies about Scotland being forced out of the EU on independence, than because they support independence as such. But frankly, I think most of them won't.<br /><br />Right now the anti-EU lobby is to some extent using the debate over indyref2 to try to push their own position. They want another EU referendum and they see this as a way to engineer a commitment to that. They must on no account be pandered to, or we're toast. But what will they do then, when a strong pro-EU campaign has been run and they're in the polling booth?<br /><br />I venture to suggest that not very many of them will actually mark the No box.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7672121540546695712017-02-11T20:01:36.468+00:002017-02-11T20:01:36.468+00:00I agree too. Only 38% voted Leave in Scotland. A...I agree too. Only 38% voted Leave in Scotland. A proportion of these are hard-No British nationalists who will never be won for Yes. Another group are indy-first voters who may bitch and moan (I know a couple, and as you say Sillars is probably in that group too) but will turn out and vote Yes to independence on the day anyway. How many voters are there who would vote to remain with Westminster in preference to remaining in the EU, but who might be won round with a promise of a further referendum? I can't say but I doubt if it's 10%.<br /><br />As James says, that group seems to have switched to No already (they're noticeably loud and vocal), and even so we're on 49%. We don't need them. Let them vote No. We need to hold firm to the pro-EU strategy first because that's why we're having the bloody second indyref in the first place and it would be utterly ludicrous to row back and say "but we might still leave the EU on a Yes vote", second because that's the only way to get the EU leadership mood music and encouraging semaphore messages we need, and third because it's what's going to attract the influx of voters who haven't quite caught up with events yet but will see where their real interests lie as hard Brexit gets closer.<br /><br />If circumstances change and say ten or 20 years down the line there's a strong clamour for Scotland to leave the EU, then another referendum at that stage would be entirely legitimate. But the idea of wrecking our chances of getting in right now by blowing lukewarm about Europe during the independence campaign is howling-at-the-moon insane.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53855204687638036942017-02-11T19:43:42.854+00:002017-02-11T19:43:42.854+00:00Absolutely, Nigel. I hope and trust the strategis...Absolutely, Nigel. I hope and trust the strategists who are game-planning this are not listening to the strident EU-haters, or those who have been spooked by them.<br /><br />We need to display our pro-EU credentials on our sleeves in order to win the support we need from the other EU states. We need EU leaders and diplomats explaining that Scotland will be welcome in the EU, that negotiations will be facilitated, and the expectation is that a deal will be worked out so that Scotland leaves the EU perhaps only symbolically for a minute at midnight on independence day. This is what is likely to happen, but the waverers won't believe it unless they hear it from EU leaders. And EU leaders are going to go pretty cold on issuing that sort of rhetoric if Scotland signals it's ambivalent about the EU by talking about another EU referendum. The UK one has traumatised relations quite enough.<br /><br />It's an insane idea from another perspective as well. England is trying to drag Scotland out of the EU "against its will". This is why we're having indyref2. Can you imagine the negative press if we say, yes, well, but we still might leave the EU anyway? We'd be rightly accused of isolationism, being separatists, and wanting to cut Scotland off from all our markets. It's bonkers.<br /><br />As you say, the ordinary, sensible, thoughtful soft No pro EU voters are teetering on the edge. We can expect a significant influx of these over the coming months. James makes a very good point that the Yes-to-No Eu-hating deflections have probably already happened and we're still on 49%. If we throw away our hopes of getting that pro-EU bandwagon to come our way just to woo back these hot-heads, we'll destroy everything we've worked for.<br /><br />We need to say to the EU-haters who tell us that they'd rather remain ruled by Tory Westminster than remain in the EU, OK, suit yourselves, vote No, see if I care. We can't win them all, and we don't need to win that demographic.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41527549010240742682017-02-11T19:27:50.152+00:002017-02-11T19:27:50.152+00:00Is there a problem with following the democratic p...<i>Is there a problem with following the democratic path of allowing Scotland's voters a direct say on Scotland's EU membership?</i><br /><br />Yes, there is. This is politics. That line of reasoning is to some extent what got the UK into the mess it's in now. "Why shouldn't the people have their say? Do you hate democracy?" And now look where we are. The EU referendum was a pure political tool designed to advance the cause of Conservative party unity, not a democratic festival to give the people an informed choice. And it blew up in their faces.<br /><br />If anyone in the SNP or Yes is daft enough to adopt this as policy in order to appease a fairly small minority of loudmouthed EU-haters who might on the other hand consider a Yes vote if the result were to be a Scotland cut off from both England and the EU, I'll tell you what will happen. First, the EU themselves will go stone cold hostile to the idea of Scottish independence and will most certainly not issue the friendly welcoming message we desperately need to win indyref2. Second, we'll lose the votes of most of the EU nationals in Scotland and most of the prevously soft No voters who want to stay in the EU. That is FAR more votes than might be won over from the Yes/Leave camp.<br /><br />You will most certainly not mollify either the EU or the soft No/Remain vote by saying, don't worry we'll have the referendum and it will be for the EU, and that will be that. They've heard that one before, and they saw how it came out.<br /><br />We've had our EU referendum for now. It was 62% remain. There is no percentage whatsoever in talking about a re-run soon after a Yes vote to independence. It would make winning that Yes vote immeasurably harder, and it would seriously jeopardise our chances of a swift accession into the EU as a full member.<br /><br />It would be strategically suicidal, so don't come the "are you afraid of democracy" schtick.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63630477127448258442017-02-11T19:10:10.970+00:002017-02-11T19:10:10.970+00:00That was the downfall of the labour government.That was the downfall of the labour government.William Purveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11485363393095886989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14659323120465609422017-02-11T18:40:35.072+00:002017-02-11T18:40:35.072+00:00To Colin.
Scotland's current 'deficit'...To Colin. <br />Scotland's current 'deficit' is a result of accounting done as a member of the UK. After Indy a new set of accounts would be prepared by the Scots Government based on its budget and the results of post Indy negotiations re who owns what, how it is split up, and how much debt Scotland takes with it when it leaves. <br /><br />What you read in the YOON media re rUK refusing to trade<br />with an Indy Scotland is nonsense. If Scotland is in or about to join the EU, trade between Scotland and England will be governed by whatever deal arrives between the EU and rUK. The latter would not embargo Scottish trade because if it did the EU would embargo trade with rUK. Also, rUK would be isolated and desperate to do deals with ANYONE not to mention the fact that rUK's trade with Scotland is more Than vice versa.<br /><br />James Colemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940550268246715045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66832396267524787672017-02-11T17:50:02.302+00:002017-02-11T17:50:02.302+00:00Well, there's the 3% deficit rule. The No side...Well, there's the 3% deficit rule. The No side will use that against us. There's also the rUK trade argument, whereas EFTA would allow an indy Scotland to agree a free trade deal with May's "global leader of free trade" rUK. EFTA does provide answers to some of the No side's likely key arguments. It also doesn't rule out eventual full EU membership should the Scottish electorate favour that.Colinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49811050983356209962017-02-11T17:26:17.392+00:002017-02-11T17:26:17.392+00:00I agree with you.I agree with you.James Colemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940550268246715045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28599312251858960052017-02-11T17:24:20.144+00:002017-02-11T17:24:20.144+00:00No! I don't agree with that. We don't want...No! I don't agree with that. We don't want to be talking about ANY post Indy politics during an Indy campaign never mind an EU referendum. It would inevitably be drawn into the Indy campaign and cause division. The opposition would make hay with it. James Colemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940550268246715045noreply@blogger.com