tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7014858118731270911..comments2024-03-28T16:21:32.043+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Yes secure second-highest ever showing in a telephone poll - and it was commissioned by the No campaignJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger130125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45387765535798769912014-09-14T06:09:40.927+01:002014-09-14T06:09:40.927+01:00Just to explain my slightly odd comment above, I w...Just to explain my slightly odd comment above, I wrote it quite a bit earlier than the time-stamp suggests, when we were still taking Euan McColm's word for it that the ICM poll was a subsample. I attempted to post it on my mobile, but I was in a place with a weak signal, and it didn't end up making it through until quite a bit later.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15748976893648670082014-09-13T23:08:59.595+01:002014-09-13T23:08:59.595+01:00Don't panic, they phoned me and I lied!Don't panic, they phoned me and I lied!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51925150619510217972014-09-13T20:09:00.567+01:002014-09-13T20:09:00.567+01:00Anyone know the last time Opinium did a poll and t...Anyone know the last time Opinium did a poll and the results?<br /><br />BVB1909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35775688280485066082014-09-13T20:07:24.368+01:002014-09-13T20:07:24.368+01:00need to ask James
Opinium
45% yes
49% No
6% DKneed to ask James<br /><br />Opinium <br />45% yes<br />49% No<br />6% DKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17410071137267708192014-09-13T20:06:11.031+01:002014-09-13T20:06:11.031+01:00Someone on Curtice's Blog BTL comments suggest...Someone on Curtice's Blog BTL comments suggesting a sub-sample of that size has possibly a margin of error of less than 4%. Robert, West Lothiannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34457940005493777362014-09-13T20:03:50.787+01:002014-09-13T20:03:50.787+01:00Surely Opinium doesn't really count as its not...Surely Opinium doesn't really count as its not done it before?<br /><br />Chris DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26763967129630675052014-09-13T20:03:33.899+01:002014-09-13T20:03:33.899+01:00ICM small poll seemingly very unreliable according...ICM small poll seemingly very unreliable according to experts on twitter.Opinium just released 53-47 No pretty much in line with Survation earlier.Panelbase for the Times 9.30Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43971211167479447062014-09-13T20:02:10.208+01:002014-09-13T20:02:10.208+01:00Because implies about 80% likelihood of it being N...Because implies about 80% likelihood of it being No ROFL...wouldn't take any notice of bookies!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29815683667598446262014-09-13T20:01:00.939+01:002014-09-13T20:01:00.939+01:00opinium has 53-47 lead for noopinium has 53-47 lead for noAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36253783580559091762014-09-13T19:57:55.413+01:002014-09-13T19:57:55.413+01:00Also, James: doesn't a "subsample" h...Also, James: doesn't a "subsample" have to be taken from a larger poll, so not properly weighted etc? Curtice doesn't say that's the case here, so I assume it's a full, weighted poll, just with a smaller sample than usual.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12546095683949184792014-09-13T19:57:15.901+01:002014-09-13T19:57:15.901+01:00Exciting. Except Betfair hasnt moved an inch. Am i...Exciting. Except Betfair hasnt moved an inch. Am i missing something? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28285478117666356532014-09-13T19:56:44.905+01:002014-09-13T19:56:44.905+01:00James...are you saying this isn't an 8 point l...James...are you saying this isn't an 8 point lead??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58401460708468017032014-09-13T19:55:26.803+01:002014-09-13T19:55:26.803+01:00James - Curtice has confirmed all of that. I assum...James - Curtice has confirmed all of that. I assume Smithson was aware of this, so why he kept quoting that totally ambiguous paragraph from D'Ancona is a mystery.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18549225244458673962014-09-13T19:53:41.002+01:002014-09-13T19:53:41.002+01:00Now we know why BT released their internal poll.Now we know why BT released their internal poll.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77488160393797313662014-09-13T19:52:59.300+01:002014-09-13T19:52:59.300+01:00Smithson is such a buffoon. Even leaving aside th...Smithson is such a buffoon. Even leaving aside the fact that it's only a subsample, he made three claims of fact in his tweet, none of which were supported by his "source" - a) that it was an online poll, b) that the lead was 8, and c) that it was for the Telegraph. If he's right about any of that, it'll just be by luck.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49255132385406798372014-09-13T19:52:45.042+01:002014-09-13T19:52:45.042+01:00An 8 point lead for Yes. Wow!
Is this true.An 8 point lead for Yes. Wow!<br /><br />Is this true.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82478756579480202442014-09-13T19:51:40.222+01:002014-09-13T19:51:40.222+01:00Who cares about margin of error...eight points lea...Who cares about margin of error...eight points lead...we're doing it!!!!!<br /><br />Chris DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56678245307502488532014-09-13T19:48:05.641+01:002014-09-13T19:48:05.641+01:00Yes, can't complain about that. What's the...Yes, can't complain about that. What's the margin of error on a poll of 705?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91957608951208906722014-09-13T19:47:04.489+01:002014-09-13T19:47:04.489+01:00Don't pay any attention to this poll friends o...Don't pay any attention to this poll friends of mine have voted yes already and told them they were voting no Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23044005811636146982014-09-13T19:45:39.945+01:002014-09-13T19:45:39.945+01:00Keaton
Sounds like it's true then!
Result!!!...Keaton<br /><br />Sounds like it's true then!<br /><br />Result!!!!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40981255588303739822014-09-13T19:45:03.597+01:002014-09-13T19:45:03.597+01:00It looks like it is right. Sample size smaller (70...It looks like it is right. Sample size smaller (705), but not tiny by any stretch of the imagination:-<br /><br />http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/Blasketcasenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57737506921188682492014-09-13T19:43:22.943+01:002014-09-13T19:43:22.943+01:00Mike's now posted that paragraph from the arti...Mike's now posted that paragraph from the article on Twitter. On the strength of apparently only that, he's posted a pb.com article with a graph showing Yes on 54%. What the hell is he smoking?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45281609404962855292014-09-13T19:42:47.235+01:002014-09-13T19:42:47.235+01:00Still...yes 8 points ahead...good poll...Still hol...Still...yes 8 points ahead...good poll...Still holding out for Murdoch's Panelbase...he didn't fly in for nothing!<br /><br />Chris DAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49824331234908460442014-09-13T19:28:29.351+01:002014-09-13T19:28:29.351+01:00McColm reckons it's from a UK wide poll so not...McColm reckons it's from a UK wide poll so not reliable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17931094982460097682014-09-13T19:25:34.177+01:002014-09-13T19:25:34.177+01:00Smithson can't read, then.
"The Survatio...Smithson can't read, then.<br /><br />"The Survation poll this weekend put Unionists eight points ahead of the Yes campaign. But an ICM poll, which shows support for independence leading by a similar margin, cannot, and will not, be ignored. Cameron is right to warn the Scots that the leap from the precipice is not a bungee jump."<br /><br />Doesn't even imply Yes have an 8% lead.keatonnoreply@blogger.com