tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6832722570815832591..comments2024-03-29T05:53:21.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: ICM poll : SNP on course to deny UKIP a seat in the European ParliamentJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29270322590401213022014-05-20T14:22:29.017+01:002014-05-20T14:22:29.017+01:00Turnout will be the key - I expect it will be fair...Turnout will be the key - I expect it will be fairly low but SNP should top the poll. Don't think the Greens will be polling well enough for the last seat.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63252780865788073232014-05-19T15:42:49.569+01:002014-05-19T15:42:49.569+01:00Ivan : YouGov are showing the SNP at a lower level...Ivan : YouGov are showing the SNP at a lower level of support for Thursday than other pollsters, and as they're a No-friendly firm it might be a matter of some concern if they ended up closest to the truth. I suppose what the SNP would be looking for to prove the Yes-friendly pollsters right is mid-30s, which is a tall order because last time around they only got 29%, at a time when the UK Labour government was extremely unpopular, and the SNP government was still enjoying an extended honeymoon.<br /><br />I have a sneaking suspicion the SNP's vote might be a touch lower than we expect - the combination of pure list PR plus a very low turnout seems to produce that effect.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82249116672146877802014-05-19T15:01:05.587+01:002014-05-19T15:01:05.587+01:00James; S-S;
Any pointers for what to look for in ...James; S-S;<br /><br />Any pointers for what to look for in terms of the result on Thursday to help us 'calibrate' the pollsters ?<br /><br /><br />What I'm specifically thinking about is the situation where we have a clutch of more Yes friendly pollsters (P/base; ICM; Survation) and a clutch of more NO friendly ones (TNS; YouGov; I-Mori).<br /><br /><br />First question : are we seeing substantially different results from each of these pollsters for Euro VI in Scotland ?<br /><br /><br />If so then what kind of result on Thursday would show the Yes friendly pollsters as being the most accurate, and what kind of result would show the No friendly ones as being more accurate.<br /><br /><br />Understand lots of caveats need to be applied in terms of relationship between Party and IndyRef VI, and also in terms of turnout which should be much higher in IndyRef than it will be on Thursday, but would be nice to have a broad-brush overview to give us something to watch for on Thursday.<br /><br /><br />thanks<br />Ivan McKeenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32359710347503394552014-05-19T12:53:12.054+01:002014-05-19T12:53:12.054+01:00They did ask the comfortableness ahead of the indy...They did ask the comfortableness ahead of the indy Q.<br /><br />Poll's therefore no good. Leave it out of your poll of polls James.<br /><br />Any Q's before the indy one should not have anything that might make people answer differently to indy.<br /><br />Funny how prof C doesn't mention this yet was all over the SNP one last year where they had some simple questions which might lead you more to Yes.<br /><br />ICM looked for shy No and found shy Yes. I suspect this bit of the poll will therefore be kept quiet.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21478893276139089982014-05-19T11:52:37.808+01:002014-05-19T11:52:37.808+01:00Correct that, it's even worse. I made the mist...Correct that, it's even worse. I made the mistake of looking at unweighted base. Post weighting the base is even <i>more</i> unrepresentative.<br /><br />75.0(-6.5)% Born in Scotland<br />16.4(+6.8)% Born in England<br /><br />If ICM asked the comfortableness question ahead of the intention question then we really need to write off the poll. The order in tables suggests this was the case.<br /><br />You can't make people start to question how comfortable they are being asked about a sensitive issue them proceed to ask them about that issue in a poll and not expect the result to be affected. You've already got them thinking about motivations for them being asking.<br /><br />Oh and quelle surprise, the Yes reduces most from last month in those who are most uncomfortable giving a view on indy. So, looks like ICM just made lots of shy Yes in this poll.<br /><br />I also note ICM are saying they're getting a political bias in their sample after demographic weighting. They're having a TNS issue here and up-weighting the DNVs massively so creating imaginary views.<br /><br />This poll is very interesting, but in terms of Y/N, it's for the bin.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34290717985180757762014-05-19T11:11:56.907+01:002014-05-19T11:11:56.907+01:00That should have been:
15.5(+5.9)% Born in Englan...That should have been:<br /><br />15.5(+5.9)% Born in EnglandScottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43439020755657098282014-05-19T11:10:55.693+01:002014-05-19T11:10:55.693+01:00Well, ICM not demographically representative again...Well, ICM not demographically representative again.<br /><br />75(-6.5)% Born in Scotland<br />15.9(+5.9)% Born in England<br /><br />Interestingly ladies, labour voters and DKs some of the least comfortable about being asked what they plan to vote.<br /><br />High levels for an online pollster; 20% of women uncomfortable being asked. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86619715888846163902014-05-19T09:45:04.275+01:002014-05-19T09:45:04.275+01:00Daily Record have realeased new Survation polling ...Daily Record have realeased new Survation polling for the Euros too: <br /><br />LAB - 26% (- 3%)<br />CON - 13% (NC)<br />SNP - 37% (- 2%)<br />LD - 6% (+ 1%)<br />UKIP - 10% (+ 3%)<br />Green - 6% (+ 3%)<br />BNP - 1% (NC)<br />Another Party - 1% (NC)<br /><br />Eerily similar to ICMs I see. <br />Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8685420177555796822014-05-19T07:51:47.414+01:002014-05-19T07:51:47.414+01:00I'm very keen to see the ICM tables and what t...I'm very keen to see the ICM tables and what they did to methodology.<br /><br />What I found odd is that those believing independence would be bad economically shot up. This had been steadily falling under a barrage of business leaving etc scare stories yet suddenly rises for no apparent reason? <br /><br />The level was too high to begin with based on long term SSAS values which is in line with ICM being not demographically representative (e.g. CoB data).<br /><br />As we know, ICM seem to wish / feel that Yes support should be lower, which is a very worrying thing for a pollster to be saying. Pollsters are there to try to measure public opinion; not put forward their own. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.com