tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6781574788052335692..comments2024-03-28T11:28:02.632+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Is the SNP lead hardening still further?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30875189915754809962015-03-11T18:21:35.944+00:002015-03-11T18:21:35.944+00:00amazing to me that people, firstly argue Scotland ...amazing to me that people, firstly argue Scotland is uniquely incapable of managing it's own affairs and finances<br />And in doing so, believe we enjoy our priveleges at the largesse of our benevolent neighbours. <br />Playing the part of Beggars that don't know they're true worth, heartbreaking to see people value themselves so lowlybroken arrownoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30393172867353092902015-03-11T17:32:19.069+00:002015-03-11T17:32:19.069+00:00If you actually believe the GERS figures, then you...If you actually believe the GERS figures, then you can could think of it as a good thing, especially with FFA or independence. A supposed large deficit will focus the minds of politicians to tackle Scotland's real problems. Mainly alcohol and obesity, which cost the Scottish tax payer £3.2 BN and £4.7BN. Getting rid of this wasted spend would mean that we'd be laughing all the way to the bank. It's a shame that no-one is willing to tackle this with a necessary steep tax rise on the causes. At least the SNP are making an attempt to tackle these problems, whereas Labour seem to want to keep it that way.... <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77517659150002615512015-03-11T16:54:36.586+00:002015-03-11T16:54:36.586+00:00To paraphrase one commenter 'If the Tories won...To paraphrase one commenter <i>'If the Tories won't subsidise a spare bedroom, they're hardly going to subsidise a whole country'.</i><br /><br />The moment the Tories openly back Scottish independence is the moment we know they've finished draining us.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83745370064481729372015-03-11T16:29:55.149+00:002015-03-11T16:29:55.149+00:00Nice post IanH, thanks.
bracoNice post IanH, thanks.<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25853163114990816102015-03-11T16:12:30.305+00:002015-03-11T16:12:30.305+00:00"you haven't "won the argument"...<i>"you haven't "won the argument" with me on the oil fund."</i><br /><br />Sorry to have to burst your bubble but it's not all about you Flockers old bean. I said "we've" and cited the Labour u-turn in policy, or do you need everything explained to you like a child?<br /><br />Get as petulant as you like but you are hardly helping your case by mindlessly regurgitating easily disproven sub-Daily Mail pish about scotland not paying it's own way. Or indeed with simpleton straw man bullshit yelping about Panacea and cakes.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60322179933320436332015-03-11T16:05:33.776+00:002015-03-11T16:05:33.776+00:00No, that's not how it works, Flockers - in ord...No, that's not how it works, Flockers - in order to avoid the charge of hypocrisy, you have to provide a link to where you met the challenge laid down to unionism by GERS. If such a thing exists, I'll look forward to reading it.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36451078799865273622015-03-11T16:01:02.307+00:002015-03-11T16:01:02.307+00:00"supporting welfare reforms aimed at getting ...<i>"supporting welfare reforms aimed at getting people back into work"</i><br /><br />Perhaps you should have thought about them for longer than five minutes before handing them over to an incompetent out of touch twit like Ian Duncan Smith?<br /><br /><b>Is Iain Duncan Smith Fit for Purpose? Tory Turmoil as Welfare Reforms Branded 'Unmitigated Disaster'</b><br /><br /><i>According to a deeply-critical report by the Public Accounts committee of MPs, implementation of the reform has been "extraordinarily poor" and much of the <b>£425m</b> spent so far will have to be written off</i><br /><br />http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/universal-credit-welfare-reform-iain-duncan-smith-520376<br /><br />Though of course if you want to impress us on welfare you could always tell us how much of a stroke of genius the bedroom tax was. Amusingly, it somehow took little Ed an <i>entire year</i> to realise how disasterous and toxic that tory policy that was.<br /><br />*chortle*Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48549234042593884062015-03-11T16:00:43.587+00:002015-03-11T16:00:43.587+00:00@Flockers
The oil fund and GERS have been dubunke...@Flockers<br /><br />The oil fund and GERS have been dubunked many times over.<br /><br /><a href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/08/23/how-decisions-on-data-and-analysis-have-biased-the-referendum-debate/" rel="nofollow">http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/08/23/how-decisions-on-data-and-analysis-have-biased-the-referendum-debate/</a><br /><br /><i>The obvious one is control of resources. In the case of GERS, Ian Lang knew exactly what he was doing when he allocated resources to the production of the first GERS in 1992. As he wrote to John Major, “I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against all of them.” And likewise, successive unionist governments knew exactly the effects when they failed to resource extension of GERS to a proper set of accounts for Scotland.</i><br /><br />So GERS was never set up to be accurate it was designed by politicians for political ends.cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53995214985214194982015-03-11T15:55:13.443+00:002015-03-11T15:55:13.443+00:00The problem Flockers with your argument is you hav...The problem Flockers with your argument is you have taken a year in isolation and extrapolated. The dishonesty in this approach is staggering. Gers figures in the past made very uncomfortable reading by the unionist parties and gained next to zero media exposure. I wonder why. <br /><br />Scotland will have to be fiscally prudent and these figures highlight the issue but lets just get two points highlighted.<br /><br />1)Even with poor oil revenue figures Scotland is still a wealthier nation than the UK on a GDP per capita basis<br /><br />2)Even with poor oil revenues Scotland contributes more to the exchequer on a per Capita basis.<br /><br />The amount of savings that Scotland could make if independent. Not having to contribute an extortionate amount of expenditure on defence and nuclear weapons. Not having to contribute to the running of Westminster and their champagne and expenses. Not having the negate the bedroom tax. <br /><br />Lets be honest the decline in oil revenues has been down to the taxation imposed by the tories and George Osbourne in order to hram the SCottish economy in the run up to the independence referendum. This meant that profitablilty of extraction was at a minimum and meant that record investment into the sector. This ultimately decreased revenue from oil taxation.<br /><br /><br />And finally....<br /><br />After we know about the Mccrone report the collusion of both British parties to silence this data. The huge under investment for decades in Scotland before devolution while poverty and social deprivation took its grip crippling the Scottish economy and leaving a huge legacy even today. <br /><br />The trouble with Unionists is there black and white approach to economics and lack of imagination. A government with full fiscal levers is much better able to deal with hardships and exploit good years to grow the economy than one dependent on big brother. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33142582976919737382015-03-11T15:52:14.653+00:002015-03-11T15:52:14.653+00:00"The Unionist parties' proposals to date ...<i>"The Unionist parties' proposals to date have"</i> - resulted in historic SNP leads. No other way to read than the scottish public simply not believing them or finding them pitifully inadequate.<br /><br /><i>"the comfort blanket of Barnett,"</i> - Is a tabloid and unionist myth, or tired old "trope" if you like. One that is hardly being made any more believable by the deluge of foaming at the mouth lunacy from desperate unionist hacks about the "Thames foaming with much blood" and other bigoted nonsense. <br /><br />Your problem is that the coward Cameron obviously doesn't give a shit about the union right now. Not when he thinks he sees a narrow party advantage in demonising democratically elected scottish MPs having a say in how scotland is governed from westminster. <br /><br />He thinks scaring english voters about little Ed having to rely on scottish SNP MPs will help him and to fuck with the long-term consequences of that.<br /><br />No matter. <br /><br />We are already using this barely disguised racism from the westminster chattering classes all over social media <i>very</i> effectively. Just keep it coming. It simply proves all we have said about the broken and corrupt nature of westminster establishment. :-)Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60357581503117109172015-03-11T15:50:06.410+00:002015-03-11T15:50:06.410+00:00In short, encouraging private enterprise and suppo...In short, encouraging private enterprise and supporting welfare reforms aimed at getting people back into work are the two most important things Scotland can do to improve its relative fiscal position. They've had a restorative effect throughout the UK in the last three years. I would like to see Scotland invest heavily through tax incentives, grants and other means to encourage the development of industry and commerce in Scotland, and to be given all necessary powers to do so (with appropriate co-operation UK wide to avoid destructive internal competition) Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69550175917491727502015-03-11T15:49:43.595+00:002015-03-11T15:49:43.595+00:00Perhaps there's a fundamental question here wh...Perhaps there's a fundamental question here which relates to the way folk might regard these GERS numbers and their likely impact on voting intention. If there are structural imbalances in the Scottish economy showing as an over-dependence on the Oil and Gas sector for example, as there are in the UK economy with its over reliance on the Financial sector and disproportionately small Manufacturing sector - how did it become so?<br /><br />Given that it is UK national political decisions over a period of decades that are largely responsible for this state of affairs what should one chose to do about it now?<br /><br />Leave the political and economic decision-making power in the hands of the political bodies that produced the economic situation in the first place and which show precious little ability to resolve it, or instead seek to gain control of powers that might allow us to improve matters for ourselves?<br /><br />Independence was never going to be easy and I doubt if FFA would be, but to say that the current situation which was caused by others is a reason to leave control with those others isn't going to hack it with me. It gives me no reason to change my voting intention, it just strengthens it.IanHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13109437794334387398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48360771361468138642015-03-11T15:46:39.823+00:002015-03-11T15:46:39.823+00:00Mick - you haven't "won the argument"...Mick - you haven't "won the argument" with me on the oil fund. You have, as ever, spectacularly missed the point. It's not about the merits of an oil fund per se, it's about whether an oil fund can address Scotland's larger deficit. Personally I would like to see an oil fund, for the same reasons as you. But I don't kid myself that it is a panacea, or that it will somehow allow us/Scotland to have our/its cake and eat it.Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7897449614268074492015-03-11T15:42:38.089+00:002015-03-11T15:42:38.089+00:00James, if you can give one example of me "duc...James, if you can give one example of me "ducking the challenge" on GERS, or previously criticising it, I will gladly withdraw. You won't find one.<br /><br />Like any statistical analysis it has its limitations - which it readily acknowledges - but it is a decent source. And yes, in some years it has found Scotland to be a net contributor, in others a net beneficiary. But the fact that sometimes Scotland pays its way is no more a case for Scottish independence than the equivalent would be for London, or Surrey. Economics is only part of the broader question.Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47593077932885421052015-03-11T15:42:01.220+00:002015-03-11T15:42:01.220+00:00Those proposals don't address how Scotland wou...Those proposals don't address how Scotland would go about improving it's relative fiscal position. Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28059984512681854552015-03-11T15:34:18.903+00:002015-03-11T15:34:18.903+00:00Sigh, the old "too poor" SNP trope again...Sigh, the old "too poor" SNP trope again. The argument is not that Scotland is too poor, but that it will be poorer - or at least more exposed - as an independent economy. I salute anyone willing to accept that as a negative of independence but still supportive of it for other reasons, but I am afraid most independence supporters (at least those posting on here and elsewhere) are hell-bent on denying economic reality.<br /><br />The Unionist parties' proposals to date have largely focused on giving Scotland greater freedom over how its share of Westminster spending is allocated and some limited additional tax raising powers, both of which I support. Greater fiscal autonomy is harder to deliver without Scotland giving up the comfort blanket of Barnett, and doesn't really work without Scotland having independent borrowing powers, which cannot happen within the UK framework. I am sure greater minds than mine can come up with a solution but it will take time and needs to take into account the wider constitutional implications - this is not just about Scotland.Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5054189848175631682015-03-11T15:32:50.625+00:002015-03-11T15:32:50.625+00:00Scotland has had a Fiscal Deficit (without debt) i...Scotland has had a Fiscal Deficit (without debt) in every single year since 1980 (before which there are not separate records. In the early 20th Century, before figures were suspended as being "too embarrassing for London" Scotland got to spend about one third to one half its generated fiscal Revenues.<br /><br />The idea that Scotland has "needed" or been "responsible" for a single penny of Westminster's debt is utterly ludicrous. It's London's debt, let London pay it back.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45049112892202948472015-03-11T15:27:41.129+00:002015-03-11T15:27:41.129+00:00"who's shrieking (and throwing around the...<i>"who's shrieking (and throwing around the same dull insults)? "</i><br /><br />You are as we've heard this insulting tabloid tosh that scotland doesn't pay it's own way for decades. Toddle back to Stormfront Lite/PB where the far-right loons might believe you and be clueless enough to base everything on one single set of GERS figures rather than the totality of all that has gone before.<br /><br />http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2015/mar/gers-scotland-needs-financial-control<br /><br />Fact is we've already won the argument on the oil fund with even Labour belatedly realising it's efficacy. Though they did admittedly try to spin it and rebrand it as a "resilience fund" lest we laugh at them too much for their hypocrisy and lies on the subject for decades. ;-)Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2694664604013066092015-03-11T15:19:19.086+00:002015-03-11T15:19:19.086+00:00Oooh, suddenly a fan of GERS are we, Flockers? Fu...Oooh, suddenly a fan of GERS are we, Flockers? Funny how that wasn't the case in previous years - indeed you and your fellow Tories seemed rather keen to "duck the challenge" it laid down for the weak case for Scotland remaining in the UK.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2868982595163465792015-03-11T15:15:21.197+00:002015-03-11T15:15:21.197+00:00Thing is Flockers, I don't see the unionist pa...Thing is Flockers, I don't see the unionist parties proposing anything either. All I'm reading today is a lot of pointing and saying 'we told you were too poor'. Not exactly the basis for a happy and stable marriage.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34471988872952437132015-03-11T15:15:07.389+00:002015-03-11T15:15:07.389+00:00Let's also remember that despite little Ed bei...Let's also remember that despite little Ed being one of the worst Labour leaders in modern times the coward Cameron is still running scared to debate him. <br /><br />That's hardly a position of strength and there is simply no way on earth that <i>either</i> leader can hide from the electorate as the GE campaign intensifies. (because it's not as if Cameron is that much more popular than little Ed always remember)<br /><br />The tories also need to be leading consistently and a by a large amount. Cowardly Cameron's backbenchers managed to scupper the boundary changes with their opposition to Lords reform so it's not as if just being ahead by a little is enough for them.<br /><br />Superficially it might make it look closer than it is but all the polling for months has been pointing to a hung parliament in much the same way they did in 2010. <br /><br />The tories are also relying on Osbrowne to be an election strategist and we all know how hilariously bad he was at that in 2010. Having Crosby doesn't help them all that much since any tory posturing on immigration or Europe will be a godsend to the kippers. The kippers will also not disappear completely. Sure, they will likely fall back but it's pie in the sky to belive they will fall all the way to their 2010 levels of 3%. They will be strong enough in more than enough areas to put the coward Cameron under extraordinary pressure as the tory MPs in kipper strong constituencies begin to panic.<br /><br />As muttley also rightly points out we just tell scottish voters 'how did that work out in 2010?' should they ask about the unlikely event of an outright tory win.<br /><br />It's also far less potent now that so many scots have woken up to the Red tories being just as useless and right-wing on so many matters as the blue ones.<br /><br />The bottom line is that having a positive vision for scotland and how it is governed is proving to be extremely popular on the doorstep while whining about 'don't let X in by voting Y' is a position of weakness that totally relies on how other parties are viewed as well as your own. <br /><br />If the unionists can't even make a credible, believable case for their own parties then they are in very deep trouble indeed. <br /><br />What is also getting missed by the westminster chattering classes in the media is that this General Election was of vital importance for the SNP to successfully transition, not just to a new leader, but an entirely new situation.<br /><br />Our membership has skyrocketed to approaching 100,000 and let nobody tell you that was an easy thing to manage logistically. It wasn't. Yet now we have branches almost everywhere that are motivated, enthused and also well managed with a professional attitude and the people power in place to make every election from now on a whole new ball game.<br /><br />Just wait till 2016. :-DMick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10613702668198271902015-03-11T14:59:50.063+00:002015-03-11T14:59:50.063+00:00Mick - who's shrieking (and throwing around th...Mick - who's shrieking (and throwing around the same dull insults)? <br /><br />The oil fund will smooth out fluctuations (and potentially deliver a net benefit if the returns generated by the fund are greater than the cost of capital) but it doesn't address the fundamental point that if over any given period the oil wealth is not sufficient to make up the revenue/spending deficit (as the GERS and industry projections illustrate), Scotland will need to borrow more. You can't spend the money twice. By putting more into the fund during the good years, you are increasing the deficit in those good years, which therefore requires more borrowing. Sure, you borrow a bit less during the bad years, but it all nets out (subject to the point above about performance). Oil funds are marvellous for countries with large surpluses, looking to invest their wealth and avoid overheating their economies in the short term. Scotland is not in that happy position.<br /><br />The GERS very soberly points to Scotland's challenge - a much larger deficit than rUK, even taking into account oil revenue on a geographic basis, and even before the recent precipitous decline in prices is taken into account (which as you know affects not just public finances but the broader economy, including services industries). That is the challenge an independent or fiscally autonomous Scotland would face today. It can't be ducked.Flockersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57029050537096652282015-03-11T14:48:11.313+00:002015-03-11T14:48:11.313+00:00I think a strong SNP team would be more than a mat...I think a strong SNP team would be more than a match for anything that Westminster can put up.Luiginoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55683662013539757452015-03-11T14:42:07.141+00:002015-03-11T14:42:07.141+00:00meh. I think the picture is inevitably going to be...meh. I think the picture is inevitably going to be mixed from constituency from constituency with our support firming up in some areas and falling a bit in others.<br /><br />We certainly aren't relying on the polls as we have been campaigning for weeks and the ground campaigning is only going to intensify.<br /><br />The Ashcroft polling is handy for pointing out where we are best placed to get rid of unionist MPs in individual constituencies like the one remaining nasty party tory MP. The other polling also does no harm at all as it reinforces the point that we are leading. Even if we did fall back the chances of 'scottish' Labour taking the lead are growing ever more vanishingly small by the day so in the end we are looking at an election with a background of polling showing the SNP to be the largest party in scotland which helps us in plenty of areas where it used to be taken as read that they were safe seats for the unionist parties. <br /><br />Not any more. :-DMick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39024606695216039392015-03-11T14:33:14.951+00:002015-03-11T14:33:14.951+00:00Hilarious to see out of touch tory twits shrieking...Hilarious to see out of touch tory twits shrieking about GERS when we all know that an oil fund would deal with the oil price fluctuations. Only the very simple and feeble minded like Daily Mail readers believe the bullshit that scotland doesn't pay it's own way.<br /><br /><i>Enough of the Scottish subsidy myth<br /><br />Scotland pays its way in the Union - it's time the London commentariat acknowledged that.</i><br /><br /><br />http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/11/scotland-12288-union-public<br />Mick Porknoreply@blogger.com