tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5952264722659288399..comments2024-03-28T22:07:26.861+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: The case for pessimism...and the case for mild optimismJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29214284722826665182017-06-09T10:53:33.583+01:002017-06-09T10:53:33.583+01:00Seems we got both our forecast wrong oh well stil...Seems we got both our forecast wrong oh well still over 50% of the <br />Seats in Scotland, I guess if we were a unilateral independence movement we could off avoided this.again!Stuart Jacksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03982984186783248734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2801458063781954322017-06-08T23:33:20.088+01:002017-06-08T23:33:20.088+01:00Chris Cairns @cairnstoon 33 minutes ago
Pollst...Chris Cairns @cairnstoon 33 minutes ago<br /><br /> Pollster on @SkyNews just admitted the range of SNP total in exit poll is from 21 to 50. In other words #fuckinguselessLOLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11884439195785440392017-06-08T22:23:14.505+01:002017-06-08T22:23:14.505+01:00Would have to agree.Would have to agree.Chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54964047323814504372017-06-08T22:05:58.187+01:002017-06-08T22:05:58.187+01:00For the SNP to be reduced to 34 MPs is a disaster ...For the SNP to be reduced to 34 MPs is a disaster imo. Major questions for Sturgeon if this is accurate imo.muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53900919586668617862017-06-08T21:57:23.239+01:002017-06-08T21:57:23.239+01:00Thanks chalkywonkanobiThanks chalkywonkanobiBillfromBostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399762489266212680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74068501124350938102017-06-08T21:45:58.591+01:002017-06-08T21:45:58.591+01:00I don't think there's going to be a meltdo...I don't think there's going to be a meltdown in the SNP seat's either I think the Nats tend to do better when written off. I think we can hold the same number, and maybe increase as the unionist tactical voting seems to be dividing and conquering which is very ironic considering the role of sectarianism in maintaining the union. I would laugh if the SNP increase its numbers and only lost to Patrick Harvey.Stuart Jacksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03982984186783248734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74565706584338670542017-06-08T21:43:28.782+01:002017-06-08T21:43:28.782+01:00Banff and Buchan
Heard an area of Gordon has 70%...Banff and Buchan <br /><br />Heard an area of Gordon has 70% snp exit poll...obvs carried out by snp polling agents outside..Chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23605256390963205172017-06-08T21:38:30.203+01:002017-06-08T21:38:30.203+01:00Sorry - got you now.Sorry - got you now.David Hallidaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45151204251608962662017-06-08T21:38:22.409+01:002017-06-08T21:38:22.409+01:00Which seat are you in, Chalks? Presumably Gordon ...Which seat are you in, Chalks? Presumably Gordon or Banff & Buchan?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4791098850248906082017-06-08T21:37:39.115+01:002017-06-08T21:37:39.115+01:00Sorry bill, replied down below.
Just back in lolSorry bill, replied down below.<br /><br />Just back in lolChalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56826936722088719962017-06-08T21:36:46.946+01:002017-06-08T21:36:46.946+01:00Should add, obvs snp has lost votes but I dont thi...Should add, obvs snp has lost votes but I dont think there has been that much of a swing for snp to lose.<br /><br />@billpalmerChalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31795411192967346372017-06-08T21:35:11.279+01:002017-06-08T21:35:11.279+01:00In line with 2015.
So assuming the same people vo...In line with 2015.<br /><br />So assuming the same people voted as in 2015....snp should be fine if they gotv.<br /><br />Chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66118573350865671562017-06-08T21:35:08.414+01:002017-06-08T21:35:08.414+01:00Not long till the exit poll. Gulp. I'm not at ...Not long till the exit poll. Gulp. I'm not at all confident about my prediction, but hey, might as well mention it one final time just in case it's correct:<br />Snp 50 ConservaSpivs 8 FibDooms 1 Slab zilch. <br /><br />Al Skinnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00131219905689635124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59433205828119409872017-06-08T21:28:27.384+01:002017-06-08T21:28:27.384+01:00Is that good or bad?Is that good or bad?BillfromBostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399762489266212680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1354048486207032272017-06-08T21:26:34.968+01:002017-06-08T21:26:34.968+01:00Turnout in my area rural Aberdeenshire is around 6...Turnout in my area rural Aberdeenshire is around 60-65%<br /><br />Chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22196383998638041222017-06-08T21:21:05.322+01:002017-06-08T21:21:05.322+01:00No, I meant the exit poll had them in the low 50s ...No, I meant the exit poll had them in the low 50s in the popular vote! I think it was 52% or something like that. That's why they were predicted to win 58 seats.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39229090001949210182017-06-08T21:16:07.357+01:002017-06-08T21:16:07.357+01:00The 2015 exit poll definitely had the SNP on 58 se...The 2015 exit poll definitely had the SNP on 58 seats. David Hallidaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14664266988917133312017-06-08T20:47:24.043+01:002017-06-08T20:47:24.043+01:00It should be able to pick up tactical voting - it&...It should be able to pick up tactical voting - it'll certainly aim to do that. The reason the SNP's seats were overestimated last time is simply that their vote was overestimated (I think the exit poll had them in the low 50s).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15394468845761268692017-06-08T20:39:05.155+01:002017-06-08T20:39:05.155+01:00The last exit poll in 2015 had the SNP on 58 seats...The last exit poll in 2015 had the SNP on 58 seats and they won 56. What ever tonight's poll says I would take about 5 off the total due to tactical voting. I don't think exit polls can pick up tactical voting. Im going for the SNP to win 43 seats Largs T Ladynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64413211980718506172017-06-08T20:19:18.535+01:002017-06-08T20:19:18.535+01:00Yes, we are. Drookit but determined. Yes, we are. Drookit but determined. Tom Tumiltynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81246309072000694232017-06-08T20:04:08.511+01:002017-06-08T20:04:08.511+01:00With a bit of luck they're all busy getting th...With a bit of luck they're all busy getting the vote out.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65535772360671847562017-06-08T19:58:29.707+01:002017-06-08T19:58:29.707+01:00Had a look round a lot of political forums and ver...Had a look round a lot of political forums and very little SNP poster's posting. Are things that gloomy? Kylenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11368324099611280892017-06-08T19:53:50.033+01:002017-06-08T19:53:50.033+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Stuart Jacksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03982984186783248734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91528560533906566892017-06-08T19:03:24.739+01:002017-06-08T19:03:24.739+01:00Along with all the other edit polls.... Along with all the other edit polls.... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36106149290159633062017-06-08T18:55:58.218+01:002017-06-08T18:55:58.218+01:00I believe Perth is one of the constituencies where...I believe Perth is one of the constituencies where Labour agreed not to campaign in the hopes of giving the Tories the seat.keatonnoreply@blogger.com