tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5522447292368179569..comments2024-03-29T09:23:57.275+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Is that it?! ICM poll the No campaign have been crowing about all evening shows a lower No lead than two months agoJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19998217656546853772014-07-14T13:59:30.656+01:002014-07-14T13:59:30.656+01:00Thanks both Scottish Skier and Cynical Naturalist ...Thanks both Scottish Skier and Cynical Naturalist for comments above. Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74501108331730206622014-07-14T13:40:41.515+01:002014-07-14T13:40:41.515+01:00Guess what. 6% (25) of people who answered 'N&...Guess what. 6% (25) of people who answered 'N' to Y/N promptly went on to scale themselves as Yes on 1-10. 9.5% (42) scaled themselves 5+ DK/in the middle to Yes.<br /><br />In contrast, just 1.5% of Yes voters made this 'mistake'. In their case it likely is just a mistake. 5 people.<br /><br />Oops. Those shy Yes voters should be more careful.<br /><br />And there's more of them who didn't give themselves away so easily.<br /><br />Where are those missing Yes 9's?<br /><br />Looks like they said DK/soft No 5-4.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85317242519827217862014-07-14T12:56:22.259+01:002014-07-14T12:56:22.259+01:00Still no data sets available for this Poll ?Still no data sets available for this Poll ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23739168488095697472014-07-14T12:43:35.387+01:002014-07-14T12:43:35.387+01:00I had to write to the Daily Record,not expecting a...I had to write to the Daily Record,not expecting any chance of publishing but it least got it off of my chest;Sir,I read Kezia Dugdale's column page 8 Daily Record 14/7/2014,and was NOT amazed at her blatant lie.She claimed "Thousands of Scots cast their referendum ballot this weekend" the amount of people who voted at an impromptu ballot was 576 (thousands indeed) 441 voted no = 71.8%,it was described as a "fun ballot" done at the Corby Highland Gathering.Can we expect a confession and the truth be told? probably not,as I have came to expect from members of the Labour Party in Scotland.I am beyond disgust for her and her type,the truth is always far away from them,pity us all if there is a no vote here,we will find out that its party before people from them.Its those that are convinced to vote no under the pretext doled out by Labour,that will feel the worst,conned again,fooled for trusting.Come on give the people the real facts,tell about the oil and how its only a bonus as Scotland is a country well able to sustain itself and services,from what we already have.Scotland exports food,which unless you are different from all the rest of us, we need,but of the food we are net exporters,and guess what that means we feed ourselves and have plenty left over(about 27%) to export.Now England is a net importer of food and I cant see them deciding not eat out of spite and malice can you? When more are eating from food banks,and feeling the cold,come winter will you all be happy that you stuck with the Empire and the Establishment,that have got away with paedophilia,rape and whatever else preserve the Establishment at all costs.That is what you are asking people to stay with? well no thanks its yes to independence,perhaps that is why so many in Westminster are so desperate to keep things as they are Hmm. RegardsCharles O'Brien.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10778040983298966024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31347850436313613072014-07-14T12:09:00.732+01:002014-07-14T12:09:00.732+01:00Landline telephone polls (MORI) are now hitting al...Landline telephone polls (MORI) are now hitting all time low response rates of 20%. That means they are not reaching 80% of the population. <br /><br />There is a particular problem reaching those in inner cities where landline use is going down disproportionately (in rural areas landlines are still popular due to poorer moblie coverage). <br /><br />Poorer people and younger generations are most likely to be mobile only. Also those most likely to be Yes.<br /><br />You can see this reflected in MORI polls in weightings. Results in particular show MORI respondents to be older, more conservative and more British as a result. However, there is also a likely shy factor here due to non-anonymity. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7577461428934495362014-07-14T11:55:02.553+01:002014-07-14T11:55:02.553+01:00Incidentally, I was phoned by Mori on my landline ...Incidentally, I was phoned by Mori on my landline on the evening of 1 July. Don't quite know how that fits with respect for the telephone preference service to avoid cold calls, but never mind, the young woman had a warm Scottish accent and there's the first point in influencing response, because I usually just tell cold-callers that I'm sorry but I don't take cold calls. She asked if she could ask some questions. I asked whether it was for the referendum. She said it included that, on which basis I agreed to proceed. There's a second point introducing bias - in this case, pro yes. She said it would take 15 minutes. I almost quit at that stage, but I had a friend in the room with me, he was interested to hear what they'd ask on speakerphone, so I agreed to continue. She then asked my age. 58. Wrong age sample for what they were seeking. Said they'd maybe contact me another time. <br /><br />I was very struck throughout this process how much my decisions whether to cooperate were influenced by subtle factors including, I have to confess, my own prejudices as to the level of connection I felt with the interviewer. Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8176595609238051342014-07-14T11:16:27.569+01:002014-07-14T11:16:27.569+01:0026% of Women completely against independence
34% o...26% of Women completely against independence<br />34% of men<br /><br />46% of Men NET against<br />43% Of women net against<br /><br />37% of Men NET for <br />37% of women NET for<br /><br />Ex DK<br />73% of women think Holyrood should control all taxes and welfare.<br />68% of men think the same <br /><br />Just 29% of women think a No will result in some unspecified powers.<br />52% of men think something might happen.<br /><br />So women more for independence / more against the union than men.<br /><br />Yeh, this all makes sense.<br /><br />Nothing funny going on here at all.<br /><br />People being totally honest.<br /><br />Seems for this poll we just had a higher No in the sample (unweighted base) to start with and that just filtered through as it did with TNS.<br /><br />Also a few more Yes people (as indicated by the 1-10) saying DK when put on the spot = shyness showing again.<br /><br />Anyway, I wouldn't want to be No going into a referendum with only 29.5% of people solidly backing the union.<br /><br />Standing in that booth it will be hard to say No if your heart says 'Independence would be nice'. And it's only one vote. I mean if I just swallowed hard, took a deep breath and went ahead and ticked Yes that wouldn't change anything would it? What harm could it do? I mean it's <i>just one vote...</i><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51098959653744557562014-07-14T10:49:20.937+01:002014-07-14T10:49:20.937+01:00Just 29.5% 'completely against' independen...Just 29.5% 'completely against' independence according to ICM's poll. Where have wee seen this before? In TNS's 'I support No and won't change my mind about voting for it'. That should worry No a lot; these are the people they can rely on to vote No on the day if they vote. If these people think No is a dead cert, they might not bother voting.<br /><br />People also think if the referendum was tomorrow, Yes would get 47%. Or do they? In February, people were asked to think again based on what their Yes guess gave No. When they thought again, they said 53% Yes (if I'm reading tables right).<br /><br />Where's the silent patriotic British majority?<br /><br />I note they haven't got Country of Birth data so we can't know how far they are off again this time.<br /><br />The slight rise in No looks simply like variance. The Yes drop is associated with people saying DK instead of Yes which could be explained by an actual backing off, or simply shyness.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87477604903911847962014-07-14T09:36:47.044+01:002014-07-14T09:36:47.044+01:00Have a listen to the Derek Bateman podcast if you ...Have a listen to the Derek Bateman podcast if you need a boost, many intelligent people involved in the campaign talking very positively about our prospects.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10678903759314268561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42999813156784026112014-07-14T03:02:25.785+01:002014-07-14T03:02:25.785+01:00By the way, the Ryder Cup is taking place a weeks ...By the way, the Ryder Cup is taking place a weeks or so after the referendum, so apart from the sense of anticipation it won't have any impact. James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30162357748737165742014-07-14T03:00:26.084+01:002014-07-14T03:00:26.084+01:00"No momentum" with us? Just think back ..."No momentum" with us? Just think back less than a year, when YouGov were showing a No lead of 67-33, and the No campaign were talking about "Panelbias" because Panelbase "only" showed a No lead of about 10 points. Now we have ICM - the UK's leading polling firm - showing a No lead of around 10 points, and the No campaign suddenly think that's a cause for riotous celebration. <br /><br />That's the measure of our progress. As the Poll of Polls shows, the No lead has been essentially halved since last autumn. Yes, we have to overturn the remaining lead in a much shorter timescale, but as Ivan points out there is no reason to expect a linear trend - many people will make up their minds (and change their minds) at a very late stage.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68830229624581643632014-07-14T02:36:45.211+01:002014-07-14T02:36:45.211+01:00I'm a Yes supporter too, but to be honest, I a... I'm a Yes supporter too, but to be honest, I am concerned about our polling. <br /><br />Not one poll has us ahead. Not one! The MSM is bias, oh yeah! Absolutely it is, but still we are meant to be a "canny(sic, fucking sic and patronising)" people so why can't we se through that?<br /><br />I'm so fed up of britScots. They want their cake (Scottish football, rugby, etc) and eat it (UK olympics, Labour etc). <br /><br />We are not going to win this because Scots are not small c conservative, they are big C COWARDS. <br />I've heard people moan/complain about the bedroom tax, Westminister, IDS, Scottish Labour, corruption, yet they are voting no.<br /><br />They are voting no. Not due to any love of Britain, far from it - but Yes implying we'll be in the EU, the pound, taxation. Of course the MSM haven't helped at all with their knockout headlines, but we have no counter arguement. <br />"They're bluffing" does not work! I've tried it and used various examples with undecided people. <br /><br />We are not courageous people unlike the Chileans who voted ironically NO to Pinochet, or Montenegrins who faced a similar battle in 2006 or even the Quebecers who by a bawhair rejected indy. <br /><br />I'm drunk I'll admit that, but I'm gutted at the lack of desire from our own people to vote for independence or how selfish and pathetic 'what's in it for me/I'm alright Jack' crew.<br /><br />How are Yes going to turn this around? There is absolutley no momentum with us. None, I'll no doubt be blasted as a concern troll or a no voter, but couldn't be further from the truth. <br /><br />I'm just deflated that it seems most Scots don't want us to be a real country.<br /><br />I hope so much we have something up our sleeve. I fear we don't though. We are relying on a great Commonwealth Games, Ryder Cup (I hope we win as many golds, and Europe romp home), but we are relying on sportsmen for national pride. <br /><br />Come on Scotland!WAKE UP.<br /><br />Albanachnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72007538832959106102014-07-14T01:22:55.336+01:002014-07-14T01:22:55.336+01:00Thanks James for that info on Differential Turnout...Thanks James for that info on Differential Turnout, especially for giving me the phrase to refer to the phenomenon.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099991106368571630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1486944191886084492014-07-14T00:57:44.046+01:002014-07-14T00:57:44.046+01:00There is also the Cameron/Tory factor as it may be...There is also the Cameron/Tory factor as it may become clearer to voters that te/they may remain in power.<br /><br />Expected UKIP coalition may affect voting.<br /><br />Orange March may persuade a few to Yes.<br /><br />Farage's intended Glasgow event may also persuade some to Yes.<br /><br />Hell, the housing bubble may even burst before the Vote.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099991106368571630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82094575458097716982014-07-14T00:37:11.457+01:002014-07-14T00:37:11.457+01:00Chris : Unfortunately, many pollsters have factore...Chris : Unfortunately, many pollsters have factored differential turnout into their headline numbers already. The only firms that don't use a turnout filter or turnout weighting are YouGov and TNS.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73215234329561586272014-07-14T00:21:04.116+01:002014-07-14T00:21:04.116+01:00When considering all polling data we should always...When considering all polling data we should always bare in mind the phenomenon of polled Yessers being more likely to physically vote on the day, than those stating No intentions.<br /><br />Some surmise that this may add 2 or 3% to Yes on the day.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099991106368571630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15300397252871221822014-07-13T19:19:14.017+01:002014-07-13T19:19:14.017+01:00Jeez Alistair you wrote that at 8 oclock on a Sund...Jeez Alistair you wrote that at 8 oclock on a Sunday morning? You're a sharp one. Given me food for thought. I went dipping onto Lakoff the other day for some crumbs of wisdim because I too am worried about depression setting in come a 19th No result. As always all that remains is Hope. Thx for the contribution.The Cynical Naturalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10924744053564027673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27975324285499247472014-07-13T16:53:16.972+01:002014-07-13T16:53:16.972+01:00Doesn't explain either why the classes most as...Doesn't explain either why the classes most associated with reaction and conservatism are putting so much money into the No campaign. They clearly don't believe constitutional change is without its winners and losers. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20279258618515825452014-07-13T16:29:51.297+01:002014-07-13T16:29:51.297+01:00Countries that become independent don't give i...<i>Countries that become independent don't give it up because that would mean the people who found themselves in charge giving up power.</i><br /><br />Well that would mean UKIP and the [Eurosceptic] Tories <i>are talking shite</i> I suppose.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62297015030242657572014-07-13T16:27:11.253+01:002014-07-13T16:27:11.253+01:00Actually it's the politicians who are presentl...Actually it's the politicians who are presently making a killing out of careers in the UK Parliament that stand to lose most. That's why the No side is completely dominated by them. People at the bottom will always be at the bottom. Oh well let's not do anything to change anything then. Funny that that way of thinking is espoused by someone so convinced of the individual's capacity to change. History shows that collective action can bring about all kinds of fundamental alterations to the way society functions. Independence is not going to create a perfect society but the notion that we should accept the gross inequalities and mismanagement which characterise the UK without trying to something about it is not acceptable to many of us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90320513102959195062014-07-13T15:29:10.461+01:002014-07-13T15:29:10.461+01:00"Cynical yes, pathetic no, as it means I real...<i>"Cynical yes, pathetic no, as it means I realise my life prospects are better controlled by my own individual actions than hoping the stars align at the rainbow's end."</i><br /><br />Try telling "you are the master of your own destiny" to someone queueing at a food-bank.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89076381916427378352014-07-13T15:21:49.359+01:002014-07-13T15:21:49.359+01:00You're confusing "country" with &quo...You're confusing "country" with "ruling elite" rolfe<br /><br />Countries that become independent don't give it up because that would mean the people who found themselves in charge giving up power.<br /><br />Cynical yes, pathetic no, as it means I realise my life prospects are better controlled by my own individual actions than hoping the stars align at the rainbow's end. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7493277934523769212014-07-13T15:01:37.548+01:002014-07-13T15:01:37.548+01:00Oh what an awful prospect. We'd have politici...Oh what an awful prospect. We'd have politicians in our parliament and some people might make some money out of helping us with the form-filling!<br /><br />Better vote No folks. (Like a lot of the fat-cat lawyers are doing, wonder why.)<br /><br />What a miserable, pathetic reason to vote to abolish your own country, instead of taking your place among the nations of the world.<br /><br />Show me one country that has regretted becoming independent, if you can.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39557127363753860912014-07-13T14:37:02.894+01:002014-07-13T14:37:02.894+01:00I think people are getting a bit theatrical over t...I think people are getting a bit theatrical over the difference between a yes and a no vote.<br /><br />The people at the bottom of the pile will still be at the bottom of the pile after a YES vote<br /><br />The rich will still have their money and carry more clout after a YES vote<br /><br />The only people who should genuinely gnash their teeth in the event of a NO vote are the politicians who thought they were going to be elevated to leading a country, plus the armies of lawyers rubbing their hands at the fees for sorting the separation out.<br /><br />Perhaps that is the really depressing thought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58362766985657563552014-07-13T14:06:28.205+01:002014-07-13T14:06:28.205+01:00Ivan : "So we have 7% on 5; 4% between 1 - 4 ...Ivan : <i>"So we have 7% on 5; 4% between 1 - 4 and 5% between 6 - 10."</i><br /><br />I think it may turn out to be more complicated than that, because I got the impression that not all of the 7% on 5 were necessarily undecideds on the headline question (as counter-intuitive as that sounds). I was slightly confused by Professor Curtice's article as well, because there were a couple of statements that could be interpreted more than one way. For example, do Yes need all of the people on 5 to get to 49%, or all of the people on 4-7?<br /><br />In recent times, ICM have published their datasets on Monday, so we should find out tomorrow.<br /><br /><i>"Surely this has to be looked at suspiciously as I don't think this has happened before and may suggest some tampering with methodology?"</i><br /><br />Not necessarily - that sort of odd finding can be thrown up by random sampling variation. Obviously the margin of error is bigger for half the sample than for the whole sample, so it could be that ICM just randomly found too many Yes women and too few Yes men. It'll be interesting to see if they have once again weighted women too high in the overall sample, although obviously that won't make any difference in this particular poll if the gender gap has closed completely. What will have made a difference is any ongoing error in the country of birth breakdown (ie. too many respondents born in England and too few born in Scotland), so that'll be the first thing I'll check.James Kellynoreply@blogger.com