tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post5410728504054785384..comments2024-03-28T14:15:36.649+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Full-scale Scottish poll from SurveyMonkey gives SNP a 10% lead over the ToriesJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32894930186125960352017-05-30T07:12:52.531+01:002017-05-30T07:12:52.531+01:00On politics, the bookies are wrong constantly. I ...On politics, the bookies are wrong constantly. I don't know how many more times they have to be wrong before people stop treating them as a predictive God.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11486119131110251252017-05-30T07:05:57.087+01:002017-05-30T07:05:57.087+01:00Polls are fine but the bookies are rarely wrong il...Polls are fine but the bookies are rarely wrong ill go with them.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18307865094224928881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78183228704223870542017-05-29T14:59:33.122+01:002017-05-29T14:59:33.122+01:00That is enough of a mandate for Independence.That is enough of a mandate for Independence.sock puppethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10328214110674666266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2935144053439357352017-05-29T14:40:39.019+01:002017-05-29T14:40:39.019+01:00Haha, I don't actually, but pumped the figures...Haha, I don't actually, but pumped the figures into electoral calculus and that's what came out.<br /><br />Tories will take East Ren, fairly confident that the bookies have it correct. chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25363405650270624352017-05-29T14:37:34.233+01:002017-05-29T14:37:34.233+01:00I think we need to take a step back here and remin...I think we need to take a step back here and remind ourselves that this poll is pointing to the SNP winning well over two-thirds of the seats. It would have to be worse than that before any of these dire scenarios would play out. (Although admittedly it could yet be worse than that due to differential turnout.)James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37176924734913780292017-05-29T13:40:07.496+01:002017-05-29T13:40:07.496+01:00Chalks, if you fancy Labour for East Ren and Edin ...Chalks, if you fancy Labour for East Ren and Edin N and Leith you can get 10/1 and 9/1 respectively. Go for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32179892304395767972017-05-29T13:32:41.765+01:002017-05-29T13:32:41.765+01:00just completed 2 different yougov polls asking who...just completed 2 different yougov polls asking who I'd vote for in the General Election. First one was more detailed then the second but strange to get 2 in such quick successionLaukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56807386785067936992017-05-29T13:32:05.165+01:002017-05-29T13:32:05.165+01:00Some better news for the SNP in todays SUBSAMPLE C...Some better news for the SNP in todays SUBSAMPLE Comres poll.<br />Excluding DK, SNP 47% TORY 26% LABOUR 21% LIBDEM 4% GREEN 1% Largs tea ladynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2660543497365942472017-05-29T13:28:18.318+01:002017-05-29T13:28:18.318+01:00Good points.
The Lib Dems are also using this ele...Good points.<br /><br />The Lib Dems are also using this election to push the EU vote, and it doesn't seem to be gaining any traction for them at all. Some polls have them losing even more seats than the 8 they held. <br /><br />The SNP have also been in government for 10 years now. I know, I know this isn't a Holyrood election ; but for too many people it will do.<br /><br />If the SNP can whack up at least 43% of the vote, they should do well and keep at least 40 MPs. <br /><br />This election has me spinning and turning. At times I look at the constituencies and think we'll do alright, but other times I have a bad feeling. <br /><br />Look at Perth/North Perth - Wishart has 50% of the vote in 2015, and 10,000 more votes than the Tories who polled 33% on a 75% turnout. Even if you add up all the other candidates, they can't even beat him. So if the Tories do win, it'll be from 'tartan' Tories going back to them and SNP apathy.Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76076162055619944472017-05-29T13:21:27.849+01:002017-05-29T13:21:27.849+01:00I think I agree with you, Chalks. Good point about...I think I agree with you, Chalks. Good point about the rock and hard place e.g they would have been critised either way if they didn't mention wanting to be part of Europe, or about having an independence referendum.<br /><br />You can also look at the Lib Dems, they have almost been been campaigning on a pro-EU/second EU ref alone and are doing absolutely nothing in the polls. They of course are being squeezed too ; but even for many Remain voters I don't think EU is that big an issue. Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20808653124821103942017-05-29T13:01:07.494+01:002017-05-29T13:01:07.494+01:00Sorry but this election was always going to be abo...Sorry but this election was always going to be about their record and devolved issues. Why? Because it is there biggest weakness and the unionists know that.<br /><br />They use the indyref2 to galvanise the no voters behind them and then the floating voters are gobbled up who believe all the negative stuff around the snp.<br /><br />The Snp have talked about indyref2, Nicola said yesterday that a majority of mp's is mandate for Westminster to give us another referendum.<br /><br />They were stuck between a rock and hard place, but my thoughts are they should have waited until we know what brexit looks like, only then will you have the weight of public opinion on your side....as it's not going to be pretty, but saying it isn't going to be pretty NOW, is not what the public want to hear or talk about, primarily because they have heard it all before.<br /><br />There is a time when to shut up and a time to talk and that's the current issue.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20555535010991543612017-05-29T12:48:07.762+01:002017-05-29T12:48:07.762+01:00The SNP vote has slid because of the following rea...The SNP vote has slid because of the following reasons: <br /><br />1. By pushing for indy ref 2 they lost their 2014 no voters<br /><br />2. By pushing to stay in the EU they lost many of their leave voters to the Conservatives and probably Labour as well <br /><br />3. They've lost some independence supporters to Labour, who like Corbyn and feel like he can bring about change in Westminster and the SNP can't. <br /><br />4. The Tories have taken over the anti SNP message and Corbyn has the platform of London media coverage. The SNP have been drowned out, and don't have a clear reason or message, although the manifesto launch may give then much needed publicity and purpose at the right time. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65481364871795029562017-05-29T12:18:21.678+01:002017-05-29T12:18:21.678+01:00I am not going to publish this on my blog till aft...I am not going to publish this on my blog till after the election is gone by, hopefully without too much damage. But in what is a relatively private space in this comments section, I should say I think the SNP has fought a low energy lacklustre campaign. A decision not to argue the case for Independence means they have accepted to fight on enemy chosen ground - which has been devolved areas and performance of the glorified council at Holyrood. The fundamental flaw in the "gradualist" approach - that you get blamed for failures of a Scotland hamstrung by the Union - is exposed.Craig Murrayhttp://www.craigmurray.org.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85801540199761455452017-05-29T11:52:42.949+01:002017-05-29T11:52:42.949+01:00The SNP's position probably hasn't been he...The SNP's position probably hasn't been helped by the delay to the manifesto launch meaning people will have basically just over a week to understand what they might be voting for with them.<br /><br />On the flipside it might mean some useful publicity when it most countsRobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56803559307935095442017-05-29T11:34:16.258+01:002017-05-29T11:34:16.258+01:00Yeh, personally I think Angus and Alex should be f...Yeh, personally I think Angus and Alex should be fine, be very close in Angus, but Salmond loves campaigning and he loves a fight.<br /><br />chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25715840139855918992017-05-29T11:28:07.810+01:002017-05-29T11:28:07.810+01:00Just checked with William Hill, Angus 4/5 fav for ...Just checked with William Hill, Angus 4/5 fav for Moray Alex 1/8 fav for Gordon Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47005560564708580332017-05-29T11:21:00.277+01:002017-05-29T11:21:00.277+01:00Sorry, east ren and Edinburgh north goes to labour...Sorry, east ren and Edinburgh north goes to labour not torieschalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77222507137469276682017-05-29T11:19:34.977+01:002017-05-29T11:19:34.977+01:00Those numbers would result in the Conservatives wi...Those numbers would result in the Conservatives winning the whole north east, Argyll and bute, the borders, east Dunbartonshire, edinbrugh north, south west, west, perth, fife north east, and east ren......oh and Orkney and Shetland<br /><br /><br />Let's hope it isn't like that.<br /><br />I think that is the lowest of the SNP support, with the highest being 45%<br /><br />Also, just to argue with your post, I'm Aberdeenshire, but the lib dem support has utterly collapsed and gone to the tories, that's why they are in contention all over the place. The 'tartan' tories that voted snp are still voting snp. chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20420030992400993992017-05-29T11:03:27.334+01:002017-05-29T11:03:27.334+01:00On those numbers the Tories could potentially win ...On those numbers the Tories could potentially win 15 seats and casualties would include Salmond, Robertson, Wishart, Gethins and Nicholson. It might be a victory but it'd be akin to the Tories losing the entire cabinet but winning a majority.<br /><br />Projections from electoral calculas and lord Ashcroft put Douglas Ross as much as 6% ahead of Angus Robertson. The reality is in the North East it is SNP voters going Tory, I know that's hard for Central Belt minded Scots to appreciate but most of the North East SNP vote was carved out of Tory voters in the first place hence the old "tartan Tory" jibe. It was always likely the Tories would be chief benefactors from an anti SNP backlash there.Aberdonianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18223644313298279653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61594680320994584752017-05-29T10:57:31.760+01:002017-05-29T10:57:31.760+01:00I have to agree to be honest, I know a lot of folk...I have to agree to be honest, I know a lot of folk who voted SNP in 2015 who are switching to Tory or back to Labour. I fear that our Indy chance is gone for the foreseeable future unless Scottish Labour were to change their tune on Independence (as many of their members would like them to do). I think after 10 years in Government people are just getting sick of the SNP which unfortunately is not exactly unexpected.chrism_scotlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00216771073195573342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58151993699945786142017-05-29T09:41:24.084+01:002017-05-29T09:41:24.084+01:00Strange, your experience is opposite of mine, left...Strange, your experience is opposite of mine, left ex Labour voters coming to the SNP and the right wing Blairite/ Ultra unionists returning to the Torys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66820608402708342352017-05-29T08:24:51.790+01:002017-05-29T08:24:51.790+01:00I have a bad feeling about this election for the S...I have a bad feeling about this election for the SNP. The unionist vote is galvanising and growing. The SNP have been very quiet and i think there internal polling is suggesting a bad outcome. I hope i am hopelesly out of touch and entirely wrong but i have met a lot of resistance from people who voted SNP two years ago. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18307865094224928881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78647792116654174762017-05-29T05:31:02.250+01:002017-05-29T05:31:02.250+01:00Love, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Lo...Love, Love, Love.<br />Love, Love, Love.<br />Love, Love, Love.<br />There's nothing you can do that can't be done.<br />Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.<br />Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.<br />It's easy.<br />Nothing you can make that can't be made.<br />No one you can save that can't be saved.<br />Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.<br />It's easy.<br />All you need is love.<br />All you need is love.<br />All you need is love, love.<br />Love is all you need.<br />Nothing you can know that isn't known.<br />Nothing you can see that isn't shown.<br />Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.<br />It's easy.<br />All you need is love (All together, now!)<br />All you need is love (Everybody!)<br />All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44540581448630841882017-05-29T05:30:24.042+01:002017-05-29T05:30:24.042+01:00Love, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Lo...Love, Love, Love.<br />Love, Love, Love.<br />Love, Love, Love.<br />There's nothing you can do that can't be done.<br />Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.<br />Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.<br />It's easy.<br />Nothing you can make that can't be made.<br />No one you can save that can't be saved.<br />Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.<br />It's easy.<br />All you need is love.<br />All you need is love.<br />All you need is love, love.<br />Love is all you need.<br />Nothing you can know that isn't known.<br />Nothing you can see that isn't shown.<br />Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.<br />It's easy.<br />All you need is love (All together, now!)<br />All you need is love (Everybody!)<br />All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84829867303638239082017-05-29T05:29:42.516+01:002017-05-29T05:29:42.516+01:00Love, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Lo...Love, Love, Love.<br />Love, Love, Love.<br />Love, Love, Love.<br />There's nothing you can do that can't be done.<br />Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.<br />Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.<br />It's easy.<br />Nothing you can make that can't be made.<br />No one you can save that can't be saved.<br />Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.<br />It's easy.<br />All you need is love.<br />All you need is love.<br />All you need is love, love.<br />Love is all you need.<br />Nothing you can know that isn't known.<br />Nothing you can see that isn't shown.<br />Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.<br />It's easy.<br />All you need is love (All together, now!)<br />All you need is love (Everybody!)<br />All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com