tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post4755248918016136464..comments2024-03-29T15:07:44.290+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP rocket to Westminster vote of 46% in stupendous Survation surveyJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41007169333999152642014-11-18T23:53:32.915+00:002014-11-18T23:53:32.915+00:00Muttley, where have I ever said we've made no...Muttley, where have I ever said we've made no progress? For a start I've said above that our conversion of Labour folk to SNP has been beyond our wildest dreams. I've just posted elsewhere that it's never felt better to be Scottish. These are wonderful times. <br /><br />But it's possible the euphoria has gone to the parties' heads and they've made a mistake that could cost between ten and thirty seats. I very much hope I'm wrong on the Yes Alliance issue but the current evidence suggests not. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1877832465437024152014-11-18T23:39:03.139+00:002014-11-18T23:39:03.139+00:00@Sean
Do you not believe the tremendous surges in...@Sean<br /><br />Do you not believe the tremendous surges in the membership of the SNP, the SSP, and the Scottish Greens is not progress? What about the opinion polls showing SLAB's support plummeting? What about the polls showing support for another independence referendum within a decade or so? <br /><br />muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75421254707800667152014-11-18T19:25:28.099+00:002014-11-18T19:25:28.099+00:00Sounds about right braco.
Those in the SSP and Gr...Sounds about right braco.<br /><br />Those in the SSP and Greens that I know have certainly not given up and they had a membership surge too after all. Though not the colossal 85,000+ of the SNP still more than enough to still make them a formidable fighting force compared to the rest of the unionist parties in scotland. They do know the reality of FPTP and 2015 but they also know that they have to keep campaigning to keep enthusiasm and their membership enthused for 2016 when they will almost certainly see real and tangible gains for their efforts. Apart from anything else a great many of those in the SSP have no problem AT ALL campaigning against Labour and indeed relish the prospect of taking on the ultra-Blairite Eggman. Will the nature of FPTP and the recent polling curb some of the individual party campaigning compared to what we will see in 2016? Absolutely. But anyone who thinks these polls are great news for the unionist parties and terrible news for the Yes parties has their head firmly lodged up their arse. (not that you are saying that braco but a reality check is needed for those others who still don't grasp the magnitude of the change we are seeing in the scottish political landscape.) The SSP, Greens and indeed the Yes alliance have hardly vanished but that campaigning strength was always going to transform to match the reality of a 2015 GE under FPTP.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78314077822297270402014-11-18T18:57:28.961+00:002014-11-18T18:57:28.961+00:00"SNP rocket to Westminster vote of 46% in stu...<i>"SNP rocket to Westminster vote of 46% in stupendous Survation survey"</i><br /><br />That'll be the Eggman 'effect' then.<br /><br /><b>LOL</b><br /><br />You would need a heart of stone not to laugh.<br /><br />Two weeks ago the 'Murphymania' in the westminster bubble media and among his tory supporters was at fever pitch yet the scottish and indeed Labour voting public appears to be amusingly unimpressed by the Blairite Eggman and his boss little Ed.<br /><br />As for the differences across the pollsters, sure, they are a caution to take any Labour wipeout claims with a pinch of salt. (not that we need that since we do actually <i>know</i>> the size of the huge Labour majorities we'll be fighting to overturn or drastically cut) However, there's been more than enough polls now to know for certain that this isn't a blip and that right now 'scottish' Labour are looking at GE outcomes which can be compared to falling off a very tall building and falling off a cliff. It's certainly not looking good for little Ed and his Eggman, to say the least.<br /><br />As for the rest, meh. The blue rinse brigade won't change much so a scottish tory surge looks as amusingly unlikely as it was in 2010. The fate of the yellow tories also seems set in stone as Clegg's ostrich faction sprints towards the brick wall of scottish public opinion with the same kind of speed as in 2011 when they were reduced to an irrelevance in scotland and a taxi full of MSPs.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40419071503881236402014-11-18T18:56:50.930+00:002014-11-18T18:56:50.930+00:00That's a fair point, muttley, and maybe its im...That's a fair point, muttley, and maybe its implications are correct. Maybe by March or April that 10% figure will be considerably higher -- so much higher that it proves the approach of the SNP and this site's regulars correct. Would you care to take a lighthearted wager on this? Give me a figure and if you're roughly correct I will pay a forfeit of your evil devising and have to listen to your muttley sniggers. ;-)<br /><br />Or maybe this figure won't improve at all, and may even deteriorate. Remember that current 10% is against a background of the SNP at an all-time high. <br /><br />Aren't you disappointed by that 10% figure? I certainly am. It suggests that me and braco are correct, but let's be clear: I want to be wrong on this issue. I don't WANT the ditching of the official Yes Alliance to be the colossal blunder I fear it might be. I want the SNP to be right on this. <br /><br />There were four areas (at least) of potential gains next May. Let's list them in descending order of how often they're mentioned on this site and at party level.<br /><br />1. Converting pro-devomax Unionists to SNP.<br />2. Converting Labour Yessers to SNP.<br />3. Combining SNP and Green votes. <br />4. Keeping the missing half million Yessers engaged and voting. <br /><br />Based on the only evidence we have, here's the progress we've made in two months:<br /><br />1. Terrible. Zero progress.<br />2. Beyond our wildest dreams (but we're doing so well here that it may be masking the lack of progress elsewhere).<br />3. Now dead in the water. Rejected at party level. <br />4. Barely even merited a discussion. <br /><br />Over to you, compadre. Good to find someone here who can disagree about strategy but keep it civil. The toys-oot-the-pram stuff has been embarrassing. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80475220320650401162014-11-18T18:28:53.177+00:002014-11-18T18:28:53.177+00:00Stupendous post, "anon". You're dead...Stupendous post, "anon". You're dead right, of course. <br /><br />The fact that the main focus will now be on converting Unionists, which common sense told us was daft and we now know isn't working -- with the potential loss of up to thirty seats in the GE -- is of course AS NOTHING compared to the fact that a Twitter account I have nothing to do with has X number of followers. <br /><br />Really, nobody can compete with strategic insight on that level. Thank Christ we have your cognitive firepower on our side. <br /><br />As a matter of interest, just how often are you directing posts like the above at your fellow Yessers? <br /><br /><br /><br />Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71619252043937878902014-11-18T17:00:42.378+00:002014-11-18T17:00:42.378+00:00There has been an interval of only two months sinc...There has been an interval of only two months since the referendum Sean. Are you arguing that there has been no dramatic changes in Scottish politics since then? Do you not think we need to give some No voters the chance to react to what they have voted for, over a longer period of time than a few months?muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69106312081042492662014-11-18T16:59:15.489+00:002014-11-18T16:59:15.489+00:00This is an on-line survey, so is it missing the o...This is an on-line survey, so is it missing the over 55s? bjsalbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75793676916841640392014-11-18T16:44:12.306+00:002014-11-18T16:44:12.306+00:00Also interesting, changes from last comparable Sur...Also interesting, changes from last comparable Survation poll in July: <br />SNP: 46% (+8) <br />Lab: 24% (-9) <br />Con: 17% (nc)<br />Lib: 6% (nc) <br />UKIP: 5% (nc) <br />Green: 2% (nc) <br /><br />It looks certain the SNP are the only party that have benefited from the referendum, and entirely at Labour's expense. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67967669779593803342014-11-18T16:26:05.432+00:002014-11-18T16:26:05.432+00:00The 2011 election demonstrated that "tactical...The 2011 election demonstrated that "tactical voting" on the list vote is a mug's game. In fact it's almost a contradiction in terms, because it backfires pretty regularly.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6632635983582621342014-11-18T16:01:02.027+00:002014-11-18T16:01:02.027+00:00Boab,
some of the most hardworking and effective c...Boab,<br />some of the most hardworking and effective campaigners that helped deliver those 1.6 million yes voters were SSP activists (and other minority parties/ no parties). You must factor in the possible loss of those campaigners into the 'SNP alone' Westminster Campaign. It's not the simple numbers game you seem to believe it to be. <br /><br />The referendum showed the campaigning power of enthusiastic and energetic minority interests upon the motivation of the electorate getting involved, engaged and into that voting booth. <br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42376679407590901352014-11-18T15:48:27.416+00:002014-11-18T15:48:27.416+00:00Anon,
I was looking forward to a reply to Sean'...Anon,<br />I was looking forward to a reply to Sean's point there.... but then..oh well, never mind.<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50068566349038214602014-11-18T15:38:42.442+00:002014-11-18T15:38:42.442+00:00Thanks for those figures Calum, very interesting. ...Thanks for those figures Calum, very interesting. <br /><br />I think it underlines the simple logic of some sort of Alliance. Nobody is questioning the 'SNP alone' strategy if going only on the current polling figures. The question is in the 'IF', and in the nature of FPtP elections delivering large landslides on small percentage points over a threshold (in our case I think about 38%). <br /><br />Do we all confidently believe that the SNP will be able to deliver the current polling numbers in the face of all the old, tried and tested techniques previously deployed by Labour, the BBC and the entire MSM? If so what is the evidence for that belief and how is it more convincing than attempting to harvest as many of the YES voters, as well as as many of the Devo max NO vote as possible, through some sort of Devo Max Alliance. <br /><br />This would also have the effect of redrawing the Westminster election in Scotland as something very different to the usual Party political dog fight that plays directly into the 'vote Labour to keep the Tories out' sloganeering and Media campaigns we know that have worked so well in the past to sideline and diminish the SNP on the UK stage.<br /><br />braco Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84839265578004520022014-11-18T15:17:17.909+00:002014-11-18T15:17:17.909+00:00If you say so Sean.
Good luck with yer campaign. ...If you say so Sean.<br /><br />Good luck with yer campaign. Looks like you have a whopping 2,345 followers of the YES Alliance on twitter now!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25830109410994238492014-11-18T14:50:21.925+00:002014-11-18T14:50:21.925+00:00So 10% of No voters plan to vote SNP.
But rememb...So 10% of No voters plan to vote SNP. <br /><br />But remember all those people who were ALREADY SNP voters who voted No in indyref? <br /><br />So it looks as if the approach this site's regulars are so fond of, that of concentrating on converting pro devomax Unionists to the SNP, may in fact be converting NO ONE. <br /><br />And now we have the proof. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28541614510813215112014-11-18T14:19:44.675+00:002014-11-18T14:19:44.675+00:00By the by, for anyone that has been paying attenti...By the by, for anyone that has been paying attention, the SSP whom many of the more dedicated YES campaigners might wish to vote for, have been almost non-existent in not only Westminster voting intentions, but Holyrood too.Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38034049107652874602014-11-18T14:17:38.069+00:002014-11-18T14:17:38.069+00:00Braco: to say nothing of the missing half million ...Braco: to say nothing of the missing half million Yessers who've now disappeared back among the Don't Knows, Won't Votes, and Unreachable by Surveys. <br /><br />And nobody is saying a Yes Alliance could have kept that 17% plus the entire missing half million on board next May. But even 5% + 100,000 would have made a massive difference. At the SNP's current levels every few extra % make a big difference in terms of seats. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38412328428874359812014-11-18T14:16:30.925+00:002014-11-18T14:16:30.925+00:00Braco: "Why walk away from that 17% of yes vo...Braco: "Why walk away from that 17% of yes voters in the hope they will 'see sense' and vote SNP tactically against their own party of choices advice? Without even a discussion."<br /><br />You don't think it hasn't been discussed within the higher echelons of the SNP? Of course it has, and they've decided that this is the way to go. to think 100% of YES voters would vote for the SNP or a YES Alliance is just a pipe dream!<br /><br />The SNP are courting the votes of the 60-75% of voters that support a form of Devo Max. Limiting themselves to just the 45% who voted YES would be dumbass.<br /> <br />You think having a Yes Alliance will simply add 6% to an SNP total, without scaring others away? Thats just out and out crazy!<br /><br />Like I said weeks ago, the SNP wouldn't stand under a Yes Alliance ticket - what they have done is very wise and allowed other non-SNP members (that would entice non_SNP voters) to stand.<br /><br />So we may well see people like Ivan McKee, Aamer Anwar or even Elaine C Smith stand, but they'd be doing it under the SNP banner.Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4270113102505772252014-11-18T14:13:17.624+00:002014-11-18T14:13:17.624+00:00This is exactly what you want to see. Anyone who ...This is exactly what you want to see. Anyone who believes in Scottish Independence has a duty to vote for the Greens on the list.<br /><br />Eliminating the Red Tories from constituency seats at Holyrood is not enough. They will still end up with a couple of dozen thanks to the top up lists IF SNP voters vote SNP Constituency and List. However if 50% vote SNP Constituency that is close to enough for every FPTP seat to go to the SNP. But it also makes it impossible to get any List seats. Voting Green prevents Labour picking up List seats and provides an even larger pro-Independence majority at Holyrood.<br /><br />With 50% support for SNP in constituencies, an SNP List vote is a WASTED vote.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70849780534396960822014-11-18T13:02:43.091+00:002014-11-18T13:02:43.091+00:00Looking at the tables, Westminster voting intentio...Looking at the tables, Westminster voting intention by referendum vote is very interesting: <br /><br />Yes voters: <br />SNP: 83% Lab: 11% Others: 6% <br /> <br />No voters: : <br />Lab: 37% Con: 31% Lib Dem: 11% SNP: 10% UKIP: 8% Others: 3% <br /><br />Nationalists mostly back the SNP with the Unionists being split 5 ways. It's why FPTP could benefit us this time. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32999001554793890292014-11-18T12:14:11.233+00:002014-11-18T12:14:11.233+00:00Boab,
83% of YES voters intend to vote SNP.
As y...Boab,<br />83% of YES voters intend to vote SNP. <br />As yesindyref2 says<br />'I don't, but if those Yes voters not intending to vote SNP, but perhaps Green and SSP, could be persuaded to vote SNP / Alliance for the GE, that could add another 6% to the SNP figure for 51.8% :-)<br /><br />That six % could be the difference between a landslide and 'close but no cigar' especially after the BBC and MSM do theeir campaigning and innevitably eat away at some of these current SNP percentages. 38% is the threshold to majority, each % after that adds seats exponentially. That can mean 20 or so extra seats for only a handful more % points.<br /><br />Why walk away from that 17% of yes voters in the hope they will 'see sense' and vote SNP tactically against their own party of choices advice? Without even a discussion.<br /><br />braco <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60036988098945633852014-11-18T10:56:30.145+00:002014-11-18T10:56:30.145+00:00James: "If true, that might suggest that the ...James: "If true, that might suggest that the SNP vote will prove more resilient in the face of media bias than we've been fearing..."<br /><br />With this in mind, would you be starting to wane from the idea that the YES Alliance concept is a bigger attraction than the SNP, who are going to allow non-SNP members to stand for them?<br /><br />Not only is the SNP lead in the polls maintaining itself, it is growing. I have no doubt that the gap will lessen before the election, but the SNP have embarked on the right strategy - convincing the electorate a vote for them is a vote to enforce Devo Max.<br /><br />Labour will as ever campaign on the idea that a vote for the SNP will let in the Tories, and it will have some effect no doubt, but far less than before imho.Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56275203069713744432014-11-18T10:52:01.558+00:002014-11-18T10:52:01.558+00:00That's also possible, but it could be that Tor...That's also possible, but it could be that Tory supporters are core voters and always voted anyway. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89742390532945294272014-11-18T09:32:38.117+00:002014-11-18T09:32:38.117+00:00Murphy, because we all know it's a done-deal p...Murphy, because we all know it's a done-deal postal vote-wise, will still get an easy time from "Scottish" media. He and they sicken me. I believe I am not alone in that emotion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71175835785670823872014-11-18T09:27:05.306+00:002014-11-18T09:27:05.306+00:00Other Holyrood 2016 constituency shares are LD 7, ...Other Holyrood 2016 constituency shares are LD 7, UKIP 3 and Green 2.<br /><br />40 of the 76 Green list voters are SNP Westminster voters. UKIP list votes are more from a mixture of Tory and Labour (very few SNP).Jamesnoreply@blogger.com