tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post4520290439560453267..comments2024-03-29T04:11:41.539+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: A stupid (and possibly malicious) mythology about the referendum polls which must not be allowed to take rootJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54534496880393878262014-12-26T01:26:10.557+00:002014-12-26T01:26:10.557+00:00" The HoC can't block the SNP MPs if the ..." The HoC can't block the SNP MPs if the SNP have a mandate for something and they have a majority of Scots MPs."<br /><br />I think the point at which your analysis falls down is that you believe the SNP can take their seats in parliament and yet decide whether Westminster is sovereign on an issue-by-issue basis. If they take their seats in parliament and take the oath, they agree to be bound by the rules and conventions of parliament, the rulings of the Speaker, etc. Not voting (abstaining) on something is not the same as rejecting the right of the body you are a member of to rule on that issue.<br /><br />One of the most important conventions of the House of Commons is that any member can vote on any issue that comes before the House. If that is broken because of EVEL, then in the long run it will be very damaging for the Union, as I think you would agree.<br /><br />If the SNP chose to stand for election on a platform of UDI if they won a majority of Scottish seats, I would expect them to abstain from parliament (like Sinn Fein) afterwards. That would bring the issue to a head and the British government would then have to decide (as in the Irish case) how to respond.Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58361112181870327682014-12-25T23:22:14.579+00:002014-12-25T23:22:14.579+00:00SS : The situation is different in Northern Irelan...SS : The situation is different in Northern Ireland because welfare is devolved. If Westminster wanted to impose welfare reform they'd have to suspend the assembly or strip it of one of its key powers.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87685277939951642422014-12-25T23:17:46.234+00:002014-12-25T23:17:46.234+00:00"SNP will get 15-20 seats tops"
That wi..."SNP will get 15-20 seats tops"<br /><br />That will be why the bookies have the over/under line on SNP seats at 24.5 and have SNP favourites to win most seats (8/15 with Ladbrokes).Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62787928862145384892014-12-25T23:14:13.220+00:002014-12-25T23:14:13.220+00:00Of all the lazy chestnuts that people come out wit...Of all the lazy chestnuts that people come out with, "the bookies very rarely get it wrong" is the silliiest of the lot. The bookies actually have a poor track record on politics - even Mike "can't be arsed" Smithson would tell you that. My favourite (which I've mentioned here umpteen times) is that they had Labour as overwhelming odds-on favourites to win most seats in 2007 for several hours AFTER Brian Taylor had announced that the SNP were winning. James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13470542985739217442014-12-25T22:34:03.221+00:002014-12-25T22:34:03.221+00:00Mick Pork -
If you want to believe crank websites ...Mick Pork -<br />If you want to believe crank websites like WoS and want to ignore the fact that the oil price crash in an Iscotland would not have made this country poorer then that's up to you. <br />There is certainly nothing on WoS worthy of being educational it's nothing more than pro independence fanzine website littered with inaccuraciesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40268287220614525442014-12-25T22:20:47.977+00:002014-12-25T22:20:47.977+00:00Scottish Skier -
Not free money at all. Have you e...Scottish Skier -<br />Not free money at all. Have you ever seen a poor bookie?<br />% share of the vote irrelevant at GE, there are 59 seperate elections in Scotland at the GE, not just one. <br />Bookies very rarely get it drastically wrong. SNP will get 15-20 seats tops Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70906754705423166152014-12-25T20:57:27.778+00:002014-12-25T20:57:27.778+00:00A very merry Christmas to you too, friend! Always...A very merry Christmas to you too, friend! Always warms the heart for my efforts to be appreciated over the festive season.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24564738652958244432014-12-25T20:33:27.680+00:002014-12-25T20:33:27.680+00:00Alasdair,
WE can agree on that obviously, my poin...Alasdair, <br />WE can agree on that obviously, my point being that THEY won't, and when 'they' make up 85% of the UK population and occupy all seats of meaningful power, 'reasonable' argument proving the faulty nature of their constitutional belief structure is very liable to fall on deaf ears or worse, outraged ears! <br /><br />This is similar to an atheist arguing with a believer. Neither is able to comprehend the obvious truth of their perception. This is almost as basic, as it encompasses a conflicting perception of the UK's 'creation myth'.<br /><br />braco Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41405081654120041442014-12-25T20:15:17.942+00:002014-12-25T20:15:17.942+00:00The Crawford and Boyle analysis is fundamentally b...The Crawford and Boyle analysis is fundamentally broken.<br /><br />While they correctly identify that a vote for Independence by Scotland is not to "leave the UK" but to DISSOLVE the UK - the only legal proposition for this outcome - they then fantasise about "Scotland was extinguished" with absolutely no evidence for their contention. They make the statement that England is the continuator state as a subjective opinion then treat EVERYTHING subsequent to this based on the false premise.<br /><br />It is broken analysis which would not stand up to the first test in Law. The UK would be dissolved, the status of England both in 1707 and as the lead of rUK would be completely undecided.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77322815673272945192014-12-25T16:38:22.342+00:002014-12-25T16:38:22.342+00:00Thanks for the tip; various SNP to win bets made. ...Thanks for the tip; various SNP to win bets made. I don't normally gamble, but this is an opportunity not to be missed. Free money basically. Punters down south obviously not following Scottish polls! Bookies will be pleased with them betting on Labour - will make the former a tidy sum.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90259350963553972452014-12-25T16:16:28.642+00:002014-12-25T16:16:28.642+00:00Merry Christmas everybody BTW! :-)
bracoMerry Christmas everybody BTW! :-)<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80927623956256773042014-12-25T15:07:12.054+00:002014-12-25T15:07:12.054+00:00All you are doing SS is expressing/explaining the ...All you are doing SS is expressing/explaining the Scottish perspective or understanding of the 'Union' we find ourselves in (an understanding I agree with incidentally). It does not however take on board the realities of the 'English' (=British) understanding or perspective of this 'Union' they have created. <br /><br />You ask 'Can you direct me to where this is written?'<br /><br />Yes here: Annex A, Opinion: Referendum on the Independence of Scotland - International Law Aspects. British Government legal opinion from Proffessors James Crawford and Alan Boyle. 10th Dec. 2012<br /><br />para 35 and 95.<br /><br />(95.) '.... Whether or not the UK is the continuator state of England, Scotland was extinguished in 1707, so this possibility may not depend on Scott's [or yours, or my own] view that the UK was created by the Treaty of Union' (35.) An alternative view is that as a matter of international law England continued, albeit under a new name and regardless of the position in domestic law, was simply enlarged to incorporate Scotland.'<br /><br />You and I may not like it SS, or subscribe to it but that is the most recent official legal position of the UK State on it's own formation. ('Our' UK State.) <br /><br />You put forward some options the UK has of continual rule in Scotland as somehow ludicrous and impossible. Everyone of which has been practised enthusiastically by the UK state whenever faced with equivalent situations in the past. <br /><br />I am not forecasting such events, but such events in the past were as a result of Westminster's inability to plan, adjust and modify itself to it's new reality. UK's current Empire mindset as illustrated by our various foreign military adventures around the world does not, to me, indicate much scope for optimism however.<br /><br />As far as Boab's point is concerned, I think he understands that simply 'expecting' England (=Britain) to happily conform to our reading of 'the Constitution' sounds naive in the extreme.<br /><br />These are the reasons I have been perplexed by the loud and vociferous voices from our own side post referendum (I think Boab was one, not sure so apologies Boab if I am wrong) ruling out, absolutely, any form of UDI. All the more perplexing when UDI is well understood and internationally accepted Legal mechanism to gain Independence from an intransigent State . <br /><br />Scotland lost her Independence through a majority of it's MPS declaring UDU in 1707. Scotland's MPs declaring UDI , by democratic majority, may eventually be it's only way back out again.<br /><br />http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/12/23/on-colonialism-and-lesser-britain/<br />well worth the effort and very thought provoking.<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28346016406687234632014-12-25T13:51:31.752+00:002014-12-25T13:51:31.752+00:00So you are saying that Scotland is is a colony Boa...So you are saying that Scotland <i>is</i> is a colony Boab? That if the SNP won a majority of Scots MPs pre-Holyrood, England could stop Scotland holding a referendum by voting down the SNP? (this 'old way' of course still applies and you saw the wails from unionists when it was mentioned by the SNP in passing, confirming what I'm saying)<br /><br />Interesting concept Boab. <br /><br />Can you direct me to where this is written? Your 'English MPs have full control over Scotland / England owns Scotland / Scotland is a colony of England' thing? Pretty incredible it true. Why didn't they just say No to our recent iref? Would have saved a lot of bother.<br /><br />What's happening in NI? Why doesn't London just force through all the welfare reforms and budget cuts if England owns Northern Ireland like it does Scotland?<br /><br />And if the SNP said No, how would our English masters 'force' the legislation upon us?<br /><br />Would they send troops? Would the English close Holyrood with tanks? That's what it would be; not the 'British' closing Holyrood, but the 'English' (I don't see the Welsh and NI MPs voting to end Scotland's devolved parliament but even if they did, that would still be subjugation of one nation by others).<br /><br />Scotland consented to join the union. It continues to consent to Westminster rule by electing British unionist parties. If it elects nationalist or 'devo maxist' parties with mandates as a appropriate, that consent is varyingly withdrawn.<br /><br />I'm happy to have the above debated and people offer explanations as to how England can just rule Scotland as a colony, by force if needed of course. Dismissing what I say as fantasy, even in the face of evidence (e.g. 'vote SNP if you want independence') isn't the best response.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42319451611477163452014-12-25T12:30:33.118+00:002014-12-25T12:30:33.118+00:00No offence Scottish Skier, but this is absolute cr...No offence Scottish Skier, but this is absolute crap.<br /><br />The SNP having a majority of seats in Scotland does not give them a mandate to block any Westminster legislation.<br /><br />Nice story, but completely fictional.Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57894754551403661042014-12-25T11:55:28.178+00:002014-12-25T11:55:28.178+00:00James -
The SNP traditional voters "tartan to...James -<br />The SNP traditional voters "tartan tories" voted No in the referendum.<br />Do you really think that tgey will vote SNP again? The party has been taken over as a far left uprising - these guys will revert to tory to keep labour and far left parties outAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87596689433912638232014-12-25T11:41:59.347+00:002014-12-25T11:41:59.347+00:00You are Mike Smithson and I claim my £10 prize.
V...You are Mike Smithson and I claim my £10 prize.<br /><br />Voters will determine who wins which seat and not any betting site.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9256013270122305922014-12-25T11:34:28.022+00:002014-12-25T11:34:28.022+00:00Merry Christmas
Checked out some odds -
SNP only o...Merry Christmas<br />Checked out some odds -<br />SNP only odds on favourites to take 4 of the 41 labour seats. Dundee West, Ochill and South Perthshire, Falkirk and Livingston. <br /><br />Merry ChristmasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16729650998245910952014-12-25T10:21:56.323+00:002014-12-25T10:21:56.323+00:00Well, I grew up with 'Vote SNP if you want ind...Well, I grew up with 'Vote SNP if you want independence'. It was understood that if you elected the SNP as a majority of MPs, then they'd have a mandate to start negotiations for independence (or at least to hold a referendum). We are after all a union of countries, with Scotland sovereign. The referendum made that clear to the world so nobody could dispute it any more. Sure we chose to stay, but it demonstrated how we are free to leave if we wish and London does not dispute that (it can't legally as the closest thing the UK has to a constitution is the international treaty of union).<br /><br />Now, in such a situation, the SNP would hold half of Scots MPs or more and and policy they put forward could just be voted down by the rest of the commons surely, including any move for independence?<br /><br />Ah, but that would no longer mean we were a union, but England subjugating Scotland against the latter's democratic will.<br /><br />That's where we are. The HoC can't block the SNP MPs if the SNP have a mandate for something and they have a majority of Scots MPs. Whether that's independence or devo max. Even without a mandate, can still work. The SNP can't really push something that's not in their manifesto, but they can still block other stuff from Westminster until agreement is reached. You have been seeing this happening to an extent in NI at the moment; NI chooses to be part of the union and not Ireland. It's free to go too. Its MPs are roughly split between nationalist and unionist with some neutrals. Hence the deadlock and the fact that George's welfare reforms, cuts etc have yet to be properly implemented.<br /><br />Short of sending in tanks and ending the union by turning it into an occupation, there's nothing Westminster can do but negotiate.<br /><br />This is why Westminster fears SNP MPs far more than them in Holyrood.<br /><br />They don't fear our Tory, Lab and Lib MPs because they take British party whips and vote on English laws. By doing so they give up the right to veto British/English laws being applied to Scotland. They could stop SVEL and veto EVSL, but they won't. They're British.<br /><br />The union functions if we keep electing British parties in Scotland to Westminster. If we elect Scottish parties which won't take a British whip in majority, everything changes.<br /><br />SNP know this but will not necessarily shout it out; better to keep cards close to their chest. They will stand on a devo max mandate however (at least I fully expect them to), giving them the mandate and power to transfer tax and spending to Holyrood. Westminster would have to work something out with them on this unless it wants to end the union.<br /><br />Think about it this way; how would Westminster force through legislation in Scotland without the permission of Scotland's MPs and Holyrood (Westminster laws have to pass through Holyrood right now just as they used to be implemented by the Scottish office and formerly the SoSfS)? It can't basically, not unless it invades. What if it tried to stop Scotland getting any block grant? Well, that would cause economic chaos and the Scottish government could e.g. fight back by passing a law saying all taxes in Scotland are now going to Edinburgh. They are in charge of the police, courts etc after all...<br /><br />Put SNP in Westminster and Scotland is in control.<br /><br />Merry Christmas!Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39170633299580565202014-12-25T09:52:59.909+00:002014-12-25T09:52:59.909+00:00Will thanks for trapping us in poverty.Will thanks for trapping us in poverty.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06712693854913429452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13490106264885437202014-12-25T07:49:11.807+00:002014-12-25T07:49:11.807+00:00Merry Christmas to all, even wee Labour trolls.
p...Merry Christmas to all, even wee Labour trolls.<br /><br />p.s. if you are convinced that the Tories are going to win seats in "Angus, Aberdeenshire and Perthshire" -- fill your boots at the expense of Mr Ladbrokes.<br /><br />Tories are 20/1 to in Angus<br /><br />http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/angus/winning-party<br /><br />12/1 in Perth and North Perthshire<br /><br />http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/perth-and-n-perthshire/winning-party<br /><br />5/2 (third favourite) in W. Aberdeenshire<br /><br />http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/aberdeenshire-west-and-kincardine/winning-partyJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72690953422452421502014-12-25T05:44:47.999+00:002014-12-25T05:44:47.999+00:00"That's fully consistent with Yes support..."That's fully consistent with Yes support having reached somewhere in the region of the high 40s by the penultimate weekend (reported as 51% in one particular poll due to the margin of error), before slipping back - which ironically is likely to have happened mostly because of the "shock and awe" campaign of terror that was triggered by the London establishment's reaction to the very poll Sparrow is moaning about."<br /><br />James, has it occurred to you - it certainly has to me - that the supremely Establishment Peter Kellner, most of whose previous polls deliberately downsized the Yes vote through various weighting tactics, is just the man to deliberately light a firework up Westminster's arse through skewing this "rogue" poll, in order to galvanise the No side into throwing everything and then some at Yes?<br /><br />It worked - short term. Longer term, as Mick's post eloquently explains, it is boomeranging badly.lawrenceabhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16425746967578710370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53413180075686967632014-12-25T03:33:39.950+00:002014-12-25T03:33:39.950+00:00I have never before heard the argument Scottish Sk...I have never before heard the argument Scottish Skier makes above that if the SNP hold a majority of Scottish seats they could block all Westminster legislation from being implemented in Scotland simply by refusing to vote on it.<br />We have an unwritten constitution. What exactly is the mechanism by which this comes about?Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9007358497708811092014-12-25T00:18:25.258+00:002014-12-25T00:18:25.258+00:00Leaving aside the hilarious obliviousness you disp...Leaving aside the hilarious obliviousness you display as you shriek about the dangers to prosperity after Labour and now the tories have trashed the economy and seen the gap between rich and poor continue to widen - at least educate yourself to a reasonable standard before trotting out sub Daily Mail style imbecility on here for us to laugh at.<br /><br />http://wingsoverscotland.com/oilmageddon/<br /><br />Thankfully not everyone has the IQ of a walnut and believes everything they see in the Daily Mail or on the BBC.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82133263107681110782014-12-25T00:12:18.550+00:002014-12-25T00:12:18.550+00:00Oh give it a rest - the referendum is over, you ca...Oh give it a rest - the referendum is over, you can ease up on the "we're all doomed, I tell ye" propaganda for a couple of years.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43048306856320774772014-12-24T23:54:54.934+00:002014-12-24T23:54:54.934+00:00For most people it was not about sekf governance /...For most people it was not about sekf governance / Nationhood etc. It was about the drastic effects thus would have on our daily lives. Independence would have meant 10-15 years of hardship to many more people. People could have lost their jobs, houses being repossessed and businesses going under due to the uneccasary risk of independence. The recent oil price drop has highlighted just how dangerous independence would have been - this would have lead to a 6% drop in GDP. What would that gave done to the reliance on foodbanks. Goods abd services would have cost more, banking was going to be more expensive (incresing mortgages and bank loan rates etc) no real currency and no central bank to safeguard bank deposits. <br />Thankfully not everyone was blinded by Scottish Nationalism. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com