tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post4492909012236192243..comments2024-03-29T07:48:22.768+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Are online polls superior to telephone polls?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8162513488725749652018-11-07T05:29:12.053+00:002018-11-07T05:29:12.053+00:00GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77...GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.<br />Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia and its desperate need for human contact. <br />So sad.<br />So very funny.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15405466069185307152018-11-06T23:45:58.121+00:002018-11-06T23:45:58.121+00:00They know. Act normal.They know. Act normal.jimmy glesganoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67499832127087811902018-11-01T14:59:29.680+00:002018-11-01T14:59:29.680+00:00Oh Cordelia, what a heavenly hat.Oh Cordelia, what a heavenly hat.Compactnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63463857892176532112018-11-01T08:19:12.674+00:002018-11-01T08:19:12.674+00:00GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77...GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.<br />Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia and its nonsensical drivel.<br />Always funny watching its various identities bickering with themselves.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9810589860034896202018-10-31T19:53:21.145+00:002018-10-31T19:53:21.145+00:00The Tories have lowered the tax threshold on four ...The Tories have lowered the tax threshold on four occasions since coming to power for lower earners. The Tartan Tories have tax raising powers but are scared to use them. The Tories are always ahead of the game and always backfooting their Tartan pals over tax. Glesga2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9069743805612779702018-10-31T12:45:27.300+00:002018-10-31T12:45:27.300+00:00So Labour back the latest Tory tax cuts for the be...So Labour back the latest Tory tax cuts for the better off. Why am I not surprised.<br /><br />We just need Corbyn to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Tories by voting for their brexit bill and voting Labour becomes utterly pointless.scottish skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37279262988094156822018-10-31T06:21:59.694+00:002018-10-31T06:21:59.694+00:00GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77...GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.<br />Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia and its nonsensical drivel.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12102067320212069902018-10-30T10:40:26.853+00:002018-10-30T10:40:26.853+00:00Scotland's independence drive is dying from c...Scotland's independence drive is dying from chat. No independence movement in the world made decisions based on polls. They went for independence, with leads that worked for independence.<br />Our leaders have been working to make Westminster decisions work in Scotland in the least harmful way.<br />In the end that doesn't win anything.Brian Powellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67854351027681818122018-10-30T08:24:30.297+00:002018-10-30T08:24:30.297+00:00I commented on an earlier post about the NY TIMES_...I commented on an earlier post about the NY TIMES_ Siena college doing a hundred polls of different races all over the USA , they are posting EVERY CALL online so you can see and Follow along as each call gets made, answered, not answered, etc. Some are still going on, they start one or two per day and take about three days. Some problems have been how many calls it takes to get an answer: sometimes in the hundreds to get one response. Often after 300 responses( out of 350 to 500 needed) there are HUGE subsets nearly vacant. Other than millennial there seems no reason why a subset in a particular district is not being reached. Another huge problem is how far the swings are within that total call #. Often a candidate is up 60% to 40 after 300. Down by 10 after 400. Up by 10 at 500. The PROBLEM is you could seriously , scientifically have stopped at any of these points and published the poll in good conscience ( in the full sub- set ones) . this NEVER used to happen.it raises the question of how many pollsters spend the extraordinary amount of money to keep polls in the field to the PREDETERMEND target? It is hard to get info out of most anyway afterwards. When you see poll response numbers vary, you have to wonder if this is effecting results.if they get 1,200 responses in one poll, but stop at 1.137 the next but go to 1,257 the next you are skewing the results? How many pollsters will spend 33% more to come back a fourth day to " finish" ? I bet a lot stop at a convenient point unless it's right before the actual vote. Yes 55 no 40 a month out? Similar result to expectations and other polls? Yes. Got 1,130 responses, wanted 1,300 and Scottish , Yorkshire. And 18-30 voter sub-samples short? Spend 33% more to fill it out AT POLLING COMPANIES EXPENSE? I doubt it. This may be why they are so vague at first. Three days later there are like 10 people in the world looking at the criteria.I would love to see a UK poll with full subsets and a preannounced total sample.BillfromBostonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09399762489266212680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48080123732184116852018-10-30T08:03:43.466+00:002018-10-30T08:03:43.466+00:00They're not taking us seriously Bryan.
When I...They're not taking us seriously Bryan.<br /><br />When I was wee (1950s) my dad took me for haircuts to Alec the Pole. I thought it was because of the red and white striped pole he had outside his shop.Prof John Robertsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17342601124291687785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64505154915406350522018-10-30T07:25:45.988+00:002018-10-30T07:25:45.988+00:00Racist! I have great respect for the people of Pol...Racist! I have great respect for the people of Poland.Ethel Shandnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3271163549562052482018-10-30T07:24:02.179+00:002018-10-30T07:24:02.179+00:00There's a telephone poll in our garden.There's a telephone poll in our garden.Ethel Shandnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54137681619843578892018-10-30T07:22:31.984+00:002018-10-30T07:22:31.984+00:00My opinion (FWIW) is below John. ;o)My opinion (FWIW) is below John. ;o)Bryan Weirnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32725477128727142822018-10-30T07:20:07.890+00:002018-10-30T07:20:07.890+00:00Personally I think engagement, observance, cogniza...Personally I think engagement, observance, cognizance and intuition are as reliable as any poll. I receive all "sensational" poll results with a wry smile.<br /><br />Polls are as useful as a one legged man in an arse kicking competition.Bryan Weirnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61447333638652264152018-10-30T06:43:53.142+00:002018-10-30T06:43:53.142+00:00Will share with my 'people'. Lifelong lear...Will share with my 'people'. Lifelong learning!Prof John Robertsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17342601124291687785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41242874969006717642018-10-30T06:43:02.811+00:002018-10-30T06:43:02.811+00:00Bloody hell what a battering I got there. I surren...Bloody hell what a battering I got there. I surrender.<br /><br />Prof JohnProf John Robertsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17342601124291687785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11398222042003399202018-10-30T06:06:30.006+00:002018-10-30T06:06:30.006+00:00GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77...GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.<br />Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8959437828591692632018-10-30T06:04:54.344+00:002018-10-30T06:04:54.344+00:00GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77...GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.<br />Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87460656214244914882018-10-30T06:04:15.158+00:002018-10-30T06:04:15.158+00:00GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77...GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.<br />Poor, miserable, incoherent Cordelia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38879198098483859332018-10-29T22:49:32.516+00:002018-10-29T22:49:32.516+00:00You hope. Wonder if the Scots will ever know how m...You hope. Wonder if the Scots will ever know how much money they poured into the EU Mafia. OH they did give us some EU frozen butter during the eighties. WE WERE SOOOO GRATEFUL. Glesga2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48464765994825518642018-10-29T22:10:52.105+00:002018-10-29T22:10:52.105+00:00I see the English Tory brexiters are already slash...I see the English Tory brexiters are already slashing taxes for the wealthy. Jeez they move fast; we're not even out of the EU yet.<br /><br />I wonder if Corybn and co will vote for their brexit bill? Could decide the final fate of Labour in Scotland and the union itself.scottish skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19591037576400324602018-10-29T20:36:59.135+00:002018-10-29T20:36:59.135+00:00Frua Merkel (thanks British mugs for subsidising u...Frua Merkel (thanks British mugs for subsidising uz former Nazis) ve took ye tae ra cleaners. GWCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62152848683412426662018-10-29T20:27:00.058+00:002018-10-29T20:27:00.058+00:00Am I right in thinking that there was a similar co...Am I right in thinking that there was a similar convergence in the results of online and phone polls in the EURef: with Remain's lead in phone polls becoming markedly less pronounced as voting day drew near?<br /><br />From the blogpost:<br /><br />"So, commonly, telephone surveys generate conservative, negative or status quo returns. Respondents are more likely to say no to a question about a big change of some kind."<br /><br />One possible explanation could be the inherent problem with online surveys: that they are chosen from a self-selected pool of people willing to sign up to answer YouGov's questions every so often. These people by nature will probably be more engaged/knowledgeable about/interested in politics than the average voter, and so will likely have devoted more time to thinking about the kind of questions they will be asked than the average voter will. Hence the phone respondent who has engaged with the questions less will be more likely to default to supporting the 'status quo' answer.<br /><br />But as the day of a big election/referendum draws near, the less-engaged phone respondents start to inform themselves and think about the questions more, and so their answers start to converge more towards the already-engaged online respondents: creating the pattern we saw in the closing stages of the Indyref.<br /><br />I'd be inclined to suggest the phone polls are more likely to be accurate on the grounds that most of the population is less interested in day-to-day politics than regular visitors to a politics blog.Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70485471126438345702018-10-29T20:12:30.599+00:002018-10-29T20:12:30.599+00:00You have to congratulate the government for gettin...You have to congratulate the government for getting us out of the corrupt dictatorial EU. The sight of SCOTTISH EU grovellers is shameful to Scotland.Glesga2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29593024090967696542018-10-29T15:52:43.076+00:002018-10-29T15:52:43.076+00:00Last time I saw a >43% SNP in a Yougov subsampl...Last time I saw a >43% SNP in a Yougov subsample was back ahead of the 2017 election. However, yougov samples have shown a long term steady but modest increase in SNP share since a bottom out post 2017 election. So, while 47% looks like mainly noise, it comes on the back of movement in that direction and isn't ridiculous historically of course. However, it would be silly to get carried away about as you say.<br /><br />Survation at the lower end, Yougov subsample at the higher end of variance. Polling generally very steady for a year now, except for views on the UK getting a good brexit deal. They've crashed to ridiculous lows both here and in England. That's important as it could be a warning for large swings as we near England's big day.scottish skiernoreply@blogger.com