tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post448161065737698837..comments2024-03-18T22:55:22.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Despair for Dugdale as SNP soar to 34% lead on the Holyrood list in tumultuous TNS pollJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger104125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18980748808751983842015-12-23T22:16:44.332+00:002015-12-23T22:16:44.332+00:00Heard the prof on Radio Scotland using that 60% mi...Heard the prof on Radio Scotland using that 60% minimum poll rating for indi 2 story. He claims it was agreed at the SNP conference. Was it hell and he knows it. There is no figure agreed. It was when the people show a will for indi 2 and when support is consistently higher for yes.November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83468879455384473362015-12-23T17:01:17.586+00:002015-12-23T17:01:17.586+00:00It's totally obvious Lothian fits the green li...It's totally obvious Lothian fits the green list strategy as does mid and fife and weej but both to a lesser extent compared with Lothian...high numbers of socio-economic As and Bs who vote green and significantly lower for snp especially on the list...It's an entirely reasonable strategy to want to use that demographic to our advantage...we need to monitor it and be cautious but Lothian has all the ingredients for a brilliant coup d'etat and if it keeps a nawbag oot count me inJamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35510462875501358502015-12-23T16:49:43.872+00:002015-12-23T16:49:43.872+00:00It's information. I know what the confidence i...It's information. I know what the confidence intervals are. Snp has risen even further and will likely take every Lothian seat including edinburgh south. In such an instance 41% plus or minus 9% gives them f all on the list. Are you trying to deny that? Green meanwhile could get 3 on Lothian. If the trend continues then yes I will recommend a green list vote in Lothian.Jamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31301821828331497132015-12-23T16:00:13.920+00:002015-12-23T16:00:13.920+00:00"Tns provides Lothian level constituency vote...<i>"Tns provides Lothian level constituency vote."</i><br /><br />Oh for heaven's sake. They provide a Lothian subsample of 85 people, which is not properly weighted, and therefore has an incalculably huge margin of error. THAT'S what you're basing your "tactical voting" on? Seriously?James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76304603291699684622015-12-23T14:49:22.047+00:002015-12-23T14:49:22.047+00:00Tns provides Lothian level constituency vote..we k...Tns provides Lothian level constituency vote..we know what it was last time and in 2011 for Lothian and each seat..tns also provides key explanatory age, sex and social economic group information.we know these variables at seat level. Using this information we can predict the outcome for each seat. We have the list regional vote so we can put it in the calculator to see who'll get the list seats and how much say snp or green would need to get an additional seat. It's not perfect but I'll give it a go and share it if you're interested.Sorry about saying you're lying James I think we just have a different opinion on it. Jamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56717383098918346522015-12-23T13:25:51.560+00:002015-12-23T13:25:51.560+00:00In Lothian such a turnout for green on the list wo...In Lothian such a turnout for green on the list would produce potentially 3 greens with snp a maximum of 1 list but most likely none. It's obvious then to tactically vote in that region..I believe the same applies to a lesser degree in fife but will monitor the polls as that's my region.Jamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65073240611915952712015-12-23T13:22:02.065+00:002015-12-23T13:22:02.065+00:00Yes it is James. Stop lyingYes it is James. Stop lyingJamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20907164869444821432015-12-23T03:10:05.657+00:002015-12-23T03:10:05.657+00:00Think I was more pontificating in the general batt...Think I was more pontificating in the general battle 'tactical' sense but not explicit enough on a poll based thread guvnah, knuckles considered duly rapped!Tumshie Heid's Lamenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15602229781183816905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39001474560738374662015-12-23T00:24:34.740+00:002015-12-23T00:24:34.740+00:00By all means vote Green on the list if you want An...By all means vote Green on the list if you want Andy Wightman or Mark Ruskell as an MSP, but that's not "tactical voting" - that's voting for the party (or in this case the candidate) you most want to be elected. Genuine tactical voting isn't feasible on the list.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65970244614689687972015-12-23T00:20:48.138+00:002015-12-23T00:20:48.138+00:00"but what you want in this life and what you ...<i>"but what you want in this life and what you actually get aren't necessarily the same."</i><br /><br />Well, quite. You're hoping for an electoral miracle, and you're highly unlikely to get it. I know that's an unwelcome message, but you'd be wise to heed it all the same.<br /><br /><i>"Nothing amateur about it."</i><br /><br />In other words : "I'm projecting the way I once felt onto other people AND THAT MAKES ME A PROFESSIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST."James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82168166926976310512015-12-22T22:42:44.813+00:002015-12-22T22:42:44.813+00:00Yup, the FRB will be open to cars and other light ...Yup, the FRB will be open to cars and other light vehicles from 6am tomorrow. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70330077637395330492015-12-22T22:21:53.624+00:002015-12-22T22:21:53.624+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06179370658162112212noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57270708541593697392015-12-22T21:09:10.062+00:002015-12-22T21:09:10.062+00:00It was the UK that stupidly joined the EU.It was the UK that stupidly joined the EU.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49591231803412389252015-12-22T19:43:02.160+00:002015-12-22T19:43:02.160+00:00Nice to find someone with an attitude similar to m...Nice to find someone with an attitude similar to mine regarding Ross Greer.hootsmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891562975709378246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3467904103087633792015-12-22T19:41:39.831+00:002015-12-22T19:41:39.831+00:00Nice to find someone with an attitude similar to m...Nice to find someone with an attitude similar to mine regarding Ross Greer.hootsmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08891562975709378246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84445912389233845452015-12-22T16:57:44.240+00:002015-12-22T16:57:44.240+00:00Thanks tumshie my view on rise or indeed any tacti...Thanks tumshie my view on rise or indeed any tactical vote away from snp is it has to satisfy the snp list vote is wasted and the tactical vote is the way to prevent a nawbag double condition. I'm not sure rise can do that. Weej or west is most likely but even there I doubt it. Please post on the rise candidates merits though as polls may change..I'm currently trying to persuade lothians I know to vote list green and fife and weej to monitor it. If you identify suitable rise candidates and if they could win (seems currently unlikely) then let us knowJamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28650044416479418242015-12-22T16:27:05.805+00:002015-12-22T16:27:05.805+00:00Wise heids and open minds indeed sir...mark ruskel...Wise heids and open minds indeed sir...mark ruskell is top of the Scottish greens list for mid Scotland and Fife, not a bad call either, decent msp 2003-2007 and latterly doing a decent job as a councillor in Stirling, might be worth consideration...whisper it though, in some regions too, as they finalise their lists, might be worth looking at the individual and regional merits of Rise candidates, though I'm only advocating careful rather than blanket consideration!Tumshie Heid's Lamenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15602229781183816905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86266883842658905072015-12-22T15:19:55.500+00:002015-12-22T15:19:55.500+00:00Tumshie some regions only 3 am I potentially advoc...Tumshie some regions only 3 am I potentially advocating currently and only Lothian has my current strong support although I think mid and fife looks likely..greer is west of Scotland and I'm not selling him. I prefer snp but for reasons of tactics and secondly wightman there are some places where we shid shift. It's obviousJamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53577224822796188982015-12-22T14:41:24.177+00:002015-12-22T14:41:24.177+00:00Wightman is 2nd on the Lothian list and his presen...Wightman is 2nd on the Lothian list and his presence could popularize an important issue to people who currently dinnae huv a clue aboot it. To get 2 in Lothian we need around at least 15% green on the list which is the lower end of the95% confidence interval from the tns figures. This implies the green Lothian list is important..it might be important in mid Scotland and fife and possibly in the weej. I'll take a look at their list candidates so we can see if they're yes enough. Everywhere else as it currently stands seems to be double snp vote. Time for wise heids and open mindsJamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78461570789402515632015-12-22T13:53:33.987+00:002015-12-22T13:53:33.987+00:00The Tories (and others) keep telling us that the S...The Tories (and others) keep telling us that the Second Referendum cannot happen. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets the SNP a few votes from Tories who prefer a fiscally sensible SNP government to a wasteful Labour embarrassment at Holyrood.<br /><br />Repeatedly telling the electorate that Indy is off the table might not be a very useful tactic for Loyalists.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11805837667362406549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76000184543564271702015-12-22T13:34:09.157+00:002015-12-22T13:34:09.157+00:0060% +++ is a target to frighten the waens, Aldo an...60% +++ is a target to frighten the waens, Aldo and GWC. It has got to the point where no figure seems unattainable or mythical!donnywhohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14846423522597391238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7543051266159927062015-12-22T13:11:29.355+00:002015-12-22T13:11:29.355+00:00Green on the list for Lothian is a good call Jam, ...Green on the list for Lothian is a good call Jam, when it comes to holding the SNP leadership to account over land issues there would be no better parliamentarian than Andy Wightman! Wouldn't want to see the odious Ross Greer anywhere near holyrood though, so your right, tactical voting in some regions is worth discussing beyond the simple considerations of SNP majority!Tumshie Heid's Lamenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15602229781183816905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69095632447356528742015-12-22T12:11:12.090+00:002015-12-22T12:11:12.090+00:00These poll figures are great news. However, it'...These poll figures are great news. However, it's important that we don't take anything for granted. To translate them into votes, we have to do the work. Every vote must be worked for and earned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24700053687372839052015-12-22T12:08:44.450+00:002015-12-22T12:08:44.450+00:00Excellent, even just the title of this article is ...Excellent, even just the title of this article is music to my ears. <br /><br />Won't bother trawling through the trolls' comments but they are looking desperate, boo hoo. <br />Happy Xmas to all! hettyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14336425954068503728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-266405907869001122015-12-22T12:00:12.612+00:002015-12-22T12:00:12.612+00:00FRB opening on Wed (2 weeks ahead of deadline - tx...FRB opening on Wed (2 weeks ahead of deadline - txs for heads-up, Dan).<br /><br />Unionists looking increasingly fcuked it seems via polls.<br /><br />Aldo & GWC to be swallowed up by the Dead Sea, perchance?<br /><br />Festive season looking good for a few hefty drams of Glengoyne:)Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02975588480290026016noreply@blogger.com