tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post428204627178981469..comments2024-03-28T19:31:14.251+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Dramatic poll boost for independence campaign as SNP open up comfortable lead - and almost HALF want a new indyref within just THREE YEARSJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44343546084203751242018-03-17T01:22:11.979+00:002018-03-17T01:22:11.979+00:00If it ever does happen then it would be the perfec...If it ever does happen then it would be the perfect excuse to junk devolution. They could say 'in 20 years you've gone from an amicable devolution settlement and consensus politics to a failed independence referendum and UDI. This is a failed experiment and we're ending it now'. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12337347782903332042018-03-16T22:13:45.818+00:002018-03-16T22:13:45.818+00:00The Nat sis should declare UDI inspite of the majo...The Nat sis should declare UDI inspite of the majority being in favour of the Union. Then watch what happens next...Go on do it fascists, cannae wait.GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42022772777405582162018-03-16T21:59:45.434+00:002018-03-16T21:59:45.434+00:00Adam, sorry but that isn’t true. The UK joined, a...Adam, sorry but that isn’t true. The UK joined, and will leave, an international organisation where they aren’t technically politically untied or bound by a constitution that requires consent. Scotland, and England, are part of THE SAME COUNTRY and, like Catalonia, can’t declare UDI and be recognised. That’s how it works. For the same reason, Falkirk couldn’t leave an independent Scotland straight away following a local referendum.Union 2.0https://www.blogger.com/profile/16006292834539508418noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38879650458737864212018-03-16T08:40:07.611+00:002018-03-16T08:40:07.611+00:00Spot on Adam. We should use that time and again. Spot on Adam. We should use that time and again. ramstamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10764651142754131538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8516811671120019892018-03-15T19:14:15.600+00:002018-03-15T19:14:15.600+00:00Couldn't agree more with this. It also removes...Couldn't agree more with this. It also removes the possibility of a Unionist boycott. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32740726885946491982018-03-15T15:34:27.846+00:002018-03-15T15:34:27.846+00:00Scotland does not need England's permission to...Scotland does not need England's permission to leave the Union any more than the UK needed Europe's permission to leave the EU.AdamHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08843088351913325431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48772912698825738482018-03-15T11:41:42.105+00:002018-03-15T11:41:42.105+00:00i don't know a single person my age who has a ...i don't know a single person my age who has a landline. I think this is a great poll for Yes if it's majority landline people.<br /><br />surely these companies need to get with the times..? A simple text message to mobiles would deliver a more accurate response.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77665418373128135382018-03-15T11:25:57.760+00:002018-03-15T11:25:57.760+00:00James, I see they are showing 16-24 results in the...James, I see they are showing 16-24 results in the Indyref tables.<br />Presumably that would have been virtually impossible if they had stuck to landline only calls.<br /><br />How likely is it that they are getting representative data by just including "some" calls to mobile numbers?Grandpaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06050980119923788315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88289045278666095592018-03-15T10:36:49.493+00:002018-03-15T10:36:49.493+00:00The union is explicitly a reserved matter though. ...The union is explicitly a reserved matter though. Holyrood could hold a unilateral poll, but it would be legally meaningless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14466479705324821772018-03-15T09:17:26.030+00:002018-03-15T09:17:26.030+00:00Is a Section 30 order, or at least the rubber stam...Is a Section 30 order, or at least the rubber stamping of one by Westminster, actually necessary?<br /><br />"<br />…the Scottish Parliament’s competences do not depend on positive conferral of power to legislate on particular topics, but rather on the absence of relevant restrictions on its powers. While there is currently no express permission in the Scotland Act to hold an independence referendum neither is there any explicit prohibition.<br />"<br />---Professor Aileen McHarg, expert in constitutional law.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099991106368571630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31608647349443805842018-03-15T00:05:25.677+00:002018-03-15T00:05:25.677+00:00Are you unaware the Scots Govt. was proceeding wit...Are you unaware the Scots Govt. was proceeding with the Indyref in 2014<br />and it was the UK Govt. that then suggested the process towards the Edinburgh agreement. <br />Saying we in effect need English approval for Indyref2 is a narrative being encouraged by those against independence.<br />When will we know when the time is right? It's a bit like an elephant,<br />Ye'll ken it when ye see it. ramstamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10764651142754131538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7782913566871681922018-03-14T23:48:07.234+00:002018-03-14T23:48:07.234+00:00Limbo isnae the problem. We have the latest poll o...Limbo isnae the problem. We have the latest poll on indy showing the 55/45 gap in 2014 is now 52/48. <br />That's a 10% lead for NO shrinking to just 4%. <br />Stopping independence by talking up FFA is daft when we're fighting to hold onto the devo powers we already have. <br />Maybe if you guys weren't so intent on 'taking back control' you'd have more credibility. ramstamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10764651142754131538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26049796029049341732018-03-14T22:38:41.216+00:002018-03-14T22:38:41.216+00:00Since when were opinion polls used to decide wheth...Since when were opinion polls used to decide whether to call a referendum. They are a snapshot of opinion not in any way a matter of fact. Circumstances should be what decides the new vote. It's fundamentally about democracy and should be called because it's necessary not thought to be winnable.We are at the stage where it's referendum or capitulation.November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56011937410562015422018-03-14T21:56:16.025+00:002018-03-14T21:56:16.025+00:00What percentage of support for Independence does t...What percentage of support for Independence does there need to be before the SNP calls for a referendum?<br /><br />51%? 60%<br /><br />I’d rather know either way whether or not to expect one, I hate this limbo.<br /><br />Why has support for independence increased but support for unionist parties for Holyrood also increased?<br /><br />Now more than ever I think the UK needs to be reconstituted to allow FFA - it might be the only way to stop this limbo.Union 2.0https://www.blogger.com/profile/16006292834539508418noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45951157818839594392018-03-14T21:21:14.760+00:002018-03-14T21:21:14.760+00:00Just a simple point. Because some people suggest t...Just a simple point. Because some people suggest they don't want another referendum doesn't mean they won't vote in it. A good campaign removes the hesitation.<br />Another point. A significant percentage of the Labour vote will vote for independence come the day. A few flutes and Union Jacks will ensure that.Dave McEwaan Hillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18006513752566050341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83924454577495187802018-03-14T21:20:15.917+00:002018-03-14T21:20:15.917+00:00You’re right, and I’m of the firm opinion that we ...You’re right, and I’m of the firm opinion that we need to have an independence referendum before the 2021 election. It’s just that I don’t see any way in which the UK government will consent to one given the present circumstances. I really hope I’m wrong (or that I’m at least missing something), but short of a dramatic shift in the opinion polls I can’t come up with a realistic scenario that will allow the Scottish Government to force the issue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45477814601021647872018-03-14T21:01:52.359+00:002018-03-14T21:01:52.359+00:00James. The current qualified mandate for a referen...James. The current qualified mandate for a referendum is not as strong as the 2011 one, which started that there would be a referendum, no qualifications. <br /><br />It is easier for May to stall a S30. That just seems factual to me. <br /><br />The First Minister has been clear that the decision to hold a referendum or otherwise will be made when the terms of Brexit are clear. The difficulty at present is we don't know when that will be clear! A referendum Bill this autumn, or spring next year latest, would facilitate a 2020 referendum.<br /><br />We shall see! Derick fae Yellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36428546255662170992018-03-14T21:01:22.764+00:002018-03-14T21:01:22.764+00:00I apolgoise, I misread the Survation numbers, they...I apolgoise, I misread the Survation numbers, they are similar to YouGov and Panelbase. However my point about unrepresentative samples still stand. If there has been a swing to no among those who voted in both referendums then that eould likrly underestimate yes a little. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50876383626991648612018-03-14T20:54:42.272+00:002018-03-14T20:54:42.272+00:00If they scrap Holyrood (unfortunately they are not...If they scrap Holyrood (unfortunately they are not that stupid) on the basis that Westminster is sovereign, the immediate implication is that a majority of Scottish MPs is a mandate for a direct move to independence, as in Ireland 1918. Bring it on!Derick fae Yellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52963218933377188222018-03-14T20:52:01.328+00:002018-03-14T20:52:01.328+00:00But a parliamentary mandate can only come from bot...But a parliamentary mandate can only come from both parliaments.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1993971358017958912018-03-14T20:48:32.697+00:002018-03-14T20:48:32.697+00:00There were polls showing results like this and clo...There were polls showing results like this and closer just before the last referendum, yet we all know what happened.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48242474230933730192018-03-14T20:38:48.836+00:002018-03-14T20:38:48.836+00:00I've been having a look at the latest indepden...I've been having a look at the latest indepdence polls from each company and noticed something interesting. <br /><br />Around 3.6 million people voted in the 2014 independence referendum and 2.6 million in the 2016 EU referendum. So 2016 turnout was around 70% of 2014. However each polling company has different levels of 2014 and 2016 voters in their samples: <br /><br />Ipsos Mori: <br />Yes at 48% and doesn't weight by past vote <br /><br />Survation: <br />2016 voters 71% of 2014. Last poll has yes at 46% <br /><br />YouGov: <br />2016 voters 94% of 2014. Last poll has Yes at 43% <br /><br />Panelbase: <br />2016 voters 98% of 2014. Essentially poll of only people who voted in both referendums. Last poll has Yes at 43% <br /><br />It appears as if the more unrepresentative the proportion of both 2014/2016 voters a poll has, the lower support for independence is. <br />But Survation that has independence support slightly higher than in 2014 has the right proportions of 2014/2016 voters and Ipsos Mori doesn't use poltical weighting at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45772270703276602402018-03-14T19:59:46.188+00:002018-03-14T19:59:46.188+00:00That's a recipe for going around in circles fo...That's a recipe for going around in circles forever. There's only likely to be significant movement in public opinion (in either direction) once the referendum campaign is actually underway. Waiting for the perfect opinion poll to show to Theresa May is a mug's game. James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47087247491738975522018-03-14T19:34:36.284+00:002018-03-14T19:34:36.284+00:00I'm in my 50s and shortly about to get rid of ...I'm in my 50s and shortly about to get rid of the landline entirely when the contract runs out in September, we don't use it for broadband and hardly ever for calls any more, it's a total waste of money. So, yeah, it's not just the kids who are landline free these days.Pantone300noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84158874580846777392018-03-14T19:33:13.110+00:002018-03-14T19:33:13.110+00:00I agree -- independence can only be achieved by ho...I agree -- independence can only be achieved by holding a referendum. But the polls are still showing that, at best, only half of the population are in favour of independence (and likewise for holding a referendum before 2021). Without sufficient public pressure for another vote, the UK government can reasonably claim that there isn't enough interest in independence to justify granting a Section 30 order.<br /><br />If, on the other hand, polling consistently showed that a majority were in favour of independence, then it would be extremely difficult for the UK government to deny a Section 30 order. But on the basis of the numbers you presented in the above post, we're still a long way from that.<br /><br />I still believe that we would a referendum if given the chance... the problem is getting that chance. The polls are close enough that Theresa May knows there's a huge risk of the No campaign losing this time, and her reliance on the DUP means that she can't grant a Section 30 order without effectively bringing down her own government. She won't be worried about the Scottish Government holding a consultative referendum, either -- Spain showed that it's easy enough to muddy the waters by asking No-voters to boycott it and ignoring the result anyway (and if we look at the international reaction to Spain's disgraceful behaviour, there don't appear to be many consequences for doing this).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com