tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post3709129202965966592..comments2024-03-29T09:02:27.112+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Panelbase poll shows Yes at 50% among the whole sampleJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger84125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85033545317699624802014-09-15T12:39:12.565+01:002014-09-15T12:39:12.565+01:00 Have you been infected by the infamous liar and ... Have you been infected by the infamous liar and PB moderator TSE? Putting Carly Simon lyrics in the thread headers I see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61520821483848277252014-09-15T11:03:43.501+01:002014-09-15T11:03:43.501+01:00Skier, I've seen it with my own eyes, die-hard...Skier, I've seen it with my own eyes, die-hard unionists, have turned to Yes due to the media barrage.<br /><br />It's unbelievable.<br /><br />chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88557654782351255782014-09-15T10:44:05.408+01:002014-09-15T10:44:05.408+01:00ylee coyote said...
Actualy, it's not quite t...ylee coyote said...<br /><br />Actualy, it's not quite true that a high turnout faviours Yes. Well, a high turnout favours Yes but a very high turnout favours No. As you say Yes voters are more committed to vote. Let's say there is a 75% turnoutout. That could mean that some No voters have stayed at home BUT if the turnout is 85% it means that both the Yes and No camps have got their vote out. The higher it is is the more No votes have been given lifts to the polling stations and this will work against Yes.Ian Bairdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35505575915467961492014-09-15T10:40:35.123+01:002014-09-15T10:40:35.123+01:00As you have mentioned Skier...'national identi...<i>As you have mentioned Skier...'national identity' coming to the fore.</i><br /><br />Playing a role definitely.<br /><br />Large group of Scots (born) still refusing to be polled, but this seems to have been reducing and related to sudden poll movements. Yes amongst Scots born shooting up.<br /><br />Lots of anecdotal reports of Nos moving to Yes due to ramp up of scare stories, BBC stuff etc.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64727926646733058392014-09-15T10:32:05.331+01:002014-09-15T10:32:05.331+01:00Xabi, there's plenty on here who will argue Lo...Xabi, there's plenty on here who will argue London-based papers push London-based agendas. Given that, it is not more than likely a Madrid-based paper is pushing a Madrid-based agenda i.e. try and stop the catalonians having their own referendum - "its respect for constitutional legality"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80844593769356127472014-09-15T10:31:10.787+01:002014-09-15T10:31:10.787+01:00As you have mentioned Skier...'national identi...As you have mentioned Skier...'national identity' coming to the fore....I hope the Yes message this week is one of history making and for Scotland.<br /><br />Appeal to the heart and people will find it very difficult in the polling booth to vote No for Britain.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91996694248696880812014-09-15T10:05:59.186+01:002014-09-15T10:05:59.186+01:00Historically, Yes support shows a very good correl...Historically, Yes support shows a very good correlation by region against SNP 2011 regional share. As you might expect.<br /><br />Since 2007 that pattern broke down at times, with odd results in that e.g. nationalist heartlands suddenly were bastions of the union. <br /><br />The pattern returned again in 2009 when it was clear there'd be no referendum and the heat came off Scotland. It broke down again 2010-early 11 when the heat was back on, then reappeared in the glory of 2011.<br /><br />It broke down again 2012-13 and into 14. <br /><br />It's back in the ICM which has Yes ahead. Which is why Yes went ahead.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56244789281752222142014-09-15T09:09:12.909+01:002014-09-15T09:09:12.909+01:00In case it is of your interest, Spanish newspaper ...In case it is of your interest, Spanish newspaper El País has today an editorial on the Scottish referendum titled "Scotland is unique".<br /><br />http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/09/14/opinion/1410719435_239400.html<br /><br />The article endorses no one, but generally commends the pro-independence side for its civility, for its respect for constitutional legality, and for posing reasonable, prospective arguments, instead of purely emotional and retrospective ones.<br /><br />XabiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5211441560419763702014-09-15T08:21:57.339+01:002014-09-15T08:21:57.339+01:00David Beckham? FFS! Who thinks up these anti-No ge...David Beckham? FFS! Who thinks up these anti-No gestures?<br />I look forward to hearing his speech, how concerned he is for the unemployed and the users of food banks, and people having their benefits cut..<br />But we are Better Together David?<br />PS Loved that penalty you missed when you went on your erky...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36153201466115048792014-09-15T08:06:01.975+01:002014-09-15T08:06:01.975+01:00Hey, James on BBC breakfast tv, good stuff! Appear...Hey, James on BBC breakfast tv, good stuff! Appearing with Duncan Hotherstall over and above the call of duty.Theuniondivvienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53056417499866227392014-09-15T06:42:17.623+01:002014-09-15T06:42:17.623+01:00Given that the polls are tight (which I do not rea...Given that the polls are tight (which I do not really believe) then we get into the realms of other factors<br />Now I seem to remember that there was two factors which helped yes <br />The Yes voter is more likely to turn out ,and the bigger the turnout the better for yes <br />IIRC curtiss said this could be worth 3 or 4 points to yes ...comments ?ylee coyotenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84908520449022102012014-09-15T01:37:55.551+01:002014-09-15T01:37:55.551+01:00Should have added that I got generous odds for tea...Should have added that I got generous odds for teams playing England, because I was living in England at the time.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52703646558185842992014-09-15T01:36:34.919+01:002014-09-15T01:36:34.919+01:00No matter how many times Englands National team ha...No matter how many times Englands National team has failed in major competitions, I could always get very generous odds on the other team winning, just because few punters would vote against their own side.<br /><br />I would think that this bodes well for Yes, if people are backing their own side in the bookies.<br /><br />Dundee did indeed have 100% for Yes, but I think this was only with William Hill, who released their betting data. I don't think any other bookies have released their data, but not sure? <br /><br />We only have a couple of days until the polling stations are open! <br /><br />I'm filled with every emotion I have ever felt, and some I didn't know I had, lol!Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26928388100230029302014-09-15T01:18:25.401+01:002014-09-15T01:18:25.401+01:00Isn't there a problem with purely online polli...Isn't there a problem with purely online polling in that you have to be both online and signed up to a polling agency? Does this not automatically exclude older, small c conservative types who might not be particularly taken with the internet or computers? I realise the under represented demographics are 'upweighted' - but what if internet use represents a demographic in itself? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66681148348564428712014-09-15T01:15:30.080+01:002014-09-15T01:15:30.080+01:00Apart from David Bowie, Andy Murray must have the ...Apart from David Bowie, Andy Murray must have the lowest ratio of words spoken about the referendum to analysis in the media of those words.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30228555405915184632014-09-15T01:04:54.716+01:002014-09-15T01:04:54.716+01:00When Andy Murray first came on the scene he was wa...When Andy Murray first came on the scene he was was wearing sweatbands with the Scots Flag on it, also I saw him in a press conference questioning why Scotland and England play football, rugby, golf, cricket, snooker, darts, etc etc, as separate countries but at tennis we play as Britain ???<br /><br />Plus he sarcastically took the mickey out of the English Football team about 8 years ago '' I'll be supporting anyone but England,'' This was reported by the London press and he never fully recovered from the backlash, public relations wise, they've painted him as a '' dour boring Scot.'' That's probably why in interviews now he just gives bland statements because he doesn't want the media jumping down his throat for any slip ups he might make.<br /><br />Of course Andy Murray has always been popular in Scotland with a dry sarcastic sense of humour, which the English don't seem to get.<br /><br />I suspect he's an Independence supporter but he can't come out for fear of the London media industrial complex crucifying him again. David Brimsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74017590639909910822014-09-15T00:27:51.482+01:002014-09-15T00:27:51.482+01:00Andy Murray is not a No when he was asked who he w...Andy Murray is not a No when he was asked who he would play for if Scotland was independent he said 'Scotland' he then said that it didn't look like it would be a Yes (this was when the polls had No well ahead)Denisenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19846174511432436562014-09-14T23:58:31.130+01:002014-09-14T23:58:31.130+01:00Wheres James? It's like waiting for Batman to ...Wheres James? It's like waiting for Batman to appear.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10215759079049927902014-09-14T23:27:07.597+01:002014-09-14T23:27:07.597+01:00That might go against his mums wishrs....
Anyway...That might go against his mums wishrs....<br /><br /><br />Anyway, survation released their data tables for ruk mail on sunday poll....it does not bode well for us if its a no vote. We will seriously be fucked over, not feeling the love LOLchalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-49721755366485018592014-09-14T23:26:02.066+01:002014-09-14T23:26:02.066+01:00That might go against his mums wishrs....
Anyway...That might go against his mums wishrs....<br /><br /><br />Anyway, survation released their data tables for ruk mail on sunday poll....it does not bode well for us if its a no vote. We will seriously be fucked over, not feeling the love LOLchalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79838999850895001512014-09-14T23:12:44.402+01:002014-09-14T23:12:44.402+01:00big name supporting NO is David Beckham
walofsbig name supporting NO is David Beckham<br /><br />walofswaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03242753707412340371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46430845593403165212014-09-14T23:07:05.012+01:002014-09-14T23:07:05.012+01:00Anyone know when the next polls get released?
Goo...Anyone know when the next polls get released?<br /><br />Good turn out today in Aberdeen rally. Not feeling so good about the overall vote up here though. Anyone know how Aberdeen is doing in the polls?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17026912670552132482014-09-14T23:06:59.090+01:002014-09-14T23:06:59.090+01:00It's interesting that Boon has spoken out agai...It's interesting that Boon has spoken out against his own poll. However, I think he's likely being very cautious at this point, and I don't doubt the figures the ICM poll released.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42843725636293374172014-09-14T23:03:16.763+01:002014-09-14T23:03:16.763+01:00I had not realised at all that the ICM poll with ...I had not realised at all that the ICM poll with the 8% lead for YES was called an outlier not just as a possibility by James but by the boss of ICM Martin Boon.<br /><br />ICM QUOTE <br /><br />Martin Boon, the head of ICM Research, said his firm's poll should be seen in the context of a volatile campaign in which results have shifted dramatically. <br /><br />“The proper way to analyse this poll is simply to take it as an ‘outlier’ which fits into the overall impression created by all Scottish polls right now: it seems too close to call, and could go either way.” <br /><br />Is this caution, bias, reality or what?Expatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42557105318040166832014-09-14T23:03:01.125+01:002014-09-14T23:03:01.125+01:00Any clue about next polls?
Best,
XabiAny clue about next polls?<br /><br />Best,<br /><br />XabiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com