tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post3331921801125909418..comments2024-03-29T01:33:01.670+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP extend lead to 10.3% in Scot Goes Pop Poll of PollsJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53884230670532694872014-10-02T22:09:08.307+01:002014-10-02T22:09:08.307+01:00Very interesting to see a full scale SNP lead in t...Very interesting to see a full scale SNP lead in the WM elections too.<br /><br />Hopefully the SNP can keep up the pressure.<br /><br />We need devo max. Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3891923703773260832014-10-02T15:10:09.927+01:002014-10-02T15:10:09.927+01:00SNP ahead in Panelbase poll for Westminster and Ho...SNP ahead in Panelbase poll for Westminster and Holyrood:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/oct/panelbase-poll-snp-westminster-and-holyrood-lead" rel="nofollow">http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/oct/panelbase-poll-snp-westminster-and-holyrood-lead</a><br /><br />Interesting that the Westminster VI was apparently 2010 weighted. Could be underestimating SNP vi. We should be able to see from the tables.<br /><br />Also holyrood VI was EU election weighted so may underestimate SNP again.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60352237310398054162014-10-02T14:45:15.350+01:002014-10-02T14:45:15.350+01:00@Juteman
They might like to sign this then.@Juteman<br /><br /><a href="https://www.change.org/p/gordon-brown-mp-go-fuck-yourself" rel="nofollow">They might like to sign this then.</a>cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62265383401920674392014-10-02T14:45:14.824+01:002014-10-02T14:45:14.824+01:00@Juteman
They might like to sign this then.@Juteman<br /><br /><a href="https://www.change.org/p/gordon-brown-mp-go-fuck-yourself" rel="nofollow">They might like to sign this then.</a>cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60426617167050990962014-10-02T14:40:24.018+01:002014-10-02T14:40:24.018+01:00Bit early for that maybe.Bit early for that maybe.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60669013078839809012014-10-02T14:35:01.036+01:002014-10-02T14:35:01.036+01:00I wonder what YES would score now in a new indy po...I wonder what YES would score now in a new indy pollAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64623925994322651242014-10-02T13:54:37.487+01:002014-10-02T13:54:37.487+01:00Conversation at work today with an older No/DevoMa...Conversation at work today with an older No/DevoMax voter.<br />"That c**t Broon jist taen the pish oot o me, huz e no?"<br />I was forced to agree. Lots of angry older Labour voters out there.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8436089009385757882014-10-02T13:53:58.727+01:002014-10-02T13:53:58.727+01:00Google docs is mainly useful because it's free...Google docs is mainly useful because it's free and quite easy to share. It doesn't have as many features as Excel.<br /><br />Saying that, smoothing should be less necessary with the poll of polls as that already averages out the worst of the variation.<br /><br />I've given it a go with the three points we've had so far:<br /><br /><a href="http://tinyurl.com/okbayxo" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/okbayxo</a>oldchaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12383226724085667887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32402309910524842832014-10-02T13:43:15.340+01:002014-10-02T13:43:15.340+01:00I'd be reluctant to accept that the SNP vote i...I'd be reluctant to accept that the SNP vote is under represented in these polls after pinning my hopes to the Yes vote being under estimated ahead of the referendum :(<br /><br />Mandelanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38709540229388517122014-10-02T13:42:39.279+01:002014-10-02T13:42:39.279+01:00"If anyone could patiently talk me through st..."If anyone could patiently talk me through step-by-step the process of setting up a decent-looking graph, I'd be willing to give it a go. I've tried a few times before and always gave up in despair."<br /><br />Oldchap's suggestion of Google Docs is a good one, or you could use Excel and exponential smoothing-<br /><br />http://www.excel-easy.com/examples/exponential-smoothing.html<br /><br />Not sure which is better though, as I've not used Google Docs much.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6534250060022224142014-10-02T13:08:04.003+01:002014-10-02T13:08:04.003+01:00Oops, in fact 24 point changes for both parties (e...Oops, in fact 24 point changes for both parties (excel typo), i.e. Labour can get 44 one day then 20 the next.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58481301373620076202014-10-02T13:06:27.110+01:002014-10-02T13:06:27.110+01:00Historically, for yougov subsets, you can get a la...Historically, for yougov subsets, you can get a labour share up to 24 points different from the previous day. SNP 18 points different. Hence expect wild swings from day to day; a symptom of it being subset data.<br /><br />SNP had already drawn level in the subsets with Labour prior to referendum after slow steady gains over the past year+ leading up to it. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68781199636317170702014-10-02T12:24:27.644+01:002014-10-02T12:24:27.644+01:00I made a graph of this a few days ago. Will update...I made a graph of this a few days ago. Will update it and post it later. Problem with it is however, that these subsamples go up and down fairly dramatically.Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16082387274082456122014-10-02T12:18:14.530+01:002014-10-02T12:18:14.530+01:00Hmm, for some reason my comments are appearing und...Hmm, for some reason my comments are appearing under my "oldchap" handle rather than "Sandy Brownlee" like I've asked blogger to do.<br /><br />On the trolling front - this is far from a cult! Yes, there is a pro-independence slant, but you try finding a site that isn't biased one way or the other. Conclusions are always backed up by numbers from polls. You are (and others have been in the past) welcome to disagree if you can back up your arguments. That's healthy debate.oldchaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12383226724085667887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3693441627544030672014-10-02T12:14:59.434+01:002014-10-02T12:14:59.434+01:00@Anon
It just reinforces the perception that you ...@Anon<br /><br /><i>It just reinforces the perception that you guys are not a credible political cause, but a cult. Heaven’s Gate, the Peoples Temple, Yes Scotland.</i><br /><br />Not sure what to make of this bizarre statement. If we were a cult then we would all be dead by now, because of the No vote. What a utterly batshit crazy statement. The No campaign have had decades to come up with a positive case for the Union, and we are still waiting to hear it. Instead of calling independence supporters deranged cultists, why can you not come up with one positive reason for Scotland remaining a dependency? Go on give us positive reasons, which do not entail the usual catastrophes that would somehow entail from Scottish self government.muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9337099741857735922014-10-02T12:07:43.900+01:002014-10-02T12:07:43.900+01:00"In cults, criticism isn't welcome. Neith...<i>"In cults, criticism isn't welcome. Neither is perspective nor questioning."</i><br /><br />And all this from a person whose comments haven't been deleted. Tell you what - try posting a pro-independence comment on a Labour website, or on an anti-independence Facebook page, or on the Adam Tomkins blog, and see how long it stays up - in the unlikely event it ever gets published in the first place, that is.<br /><br />Then come back here and try to lecture us about "cults" and "bubbles" with a straight face. (Or even, dare I say it, about self-awareness.)James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17711127282691421712014-10-02T12:00:51.735+01:002014-10-02T12:00:51.735+01:00@Anon
A tad unfortunate that my comment questionin...@Anon<br />A tad unfortunate that my comment questioning James's post came one minute after your comment stating that no one around here ever questions anything.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82877212538460002342014-10-02T11:55:15.425+01:002014-10-02T11:55:15.425+01:00In cults, criticism isn't welcome. Neither is ...In cults, criticism isn't welcome. Neither is perspective nor questioning.<br /><br />Your reply completely vindicates this original point of mine. <br /><br />Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52997929586746663942014-10-02T11:44:51.866+01:002014-10-02T11:44:51.866+01:00"If anyone could patiently talk me through st..."If anyone could patiently talk me through step-by-step the process of setting up a decent-looking graph, I'd be willing to give it a go. I've tried a few times before and always gave up in despair."<br /><br />It depends on how decent-looking you mean but I'd be happy to set up another chart in Google Docs if you like.oldchaphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12383226724085667887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83022581239224358092014-10-02T11:41:43.028+01:002014-10-02T11:41:43.028+01:00"you guys would realise you have a serious im...<i>"you guys would realise you have a serious image problem with a large slice of the electorate"</i><br /><br />Is that what you call yourself? How pompous.<br /><br />A gentle hint - it might be a good idea to practice what you preach. Even by the standard of the trolls we've been infested with from your side of the argument, your post was a tad over-the-top.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12734035334613998392014-10-02T11:37:34.408+01:002014-10-02T11:37:34.408+01:00Those numbers give us, using http://www.electoralc...Those numbers give us, using http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/<br />3 Con<br />16 Lab<br />2 Lib<br />38 SNP<br />Wouldn't THAT be fun :DAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16613242334330613213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73040049662133504892014-10-02T11:36:54.052+01:002014-10-02T11:36:54.052+01:00@ylee
Historically, polls have tended to overestim...@ylee<br />Historically, polls have tended to overestimate the SNP. The only election I can recall where they outperformed the polls was 2011.<br /><br />In any case, I'd be interested in whether Westminster subsamples eight months out have ever come anywhere near the eventual result. I kind of doubt it.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65582361790794786532014-10-02T11:35:46.047+01:002014-10-02T11:35:46.047+01:00Just came across this blog last night and haven...Just came across this blog last night and haven't laughed so much since the Clackmannanshire result came in on the 19th.<br /><br />Is this the bubble you guys live in? Everyone as delusional as each other, selectively taking pro-independence bits of articles, highlighting via cognitive bias the bits which back up your case whilst ignoring the bits that don’t, then chucking it out there for a few rounds of Chinese whispers to make a puddle appear an ocean, all followed by the most uncritical commenting I’ve seen to follow-up.<br /><br />You accuse the mainstream media of bias, and rightly so, but heavens above, this is incredible. Pretty much every post and every comment is completely unquestioning. It just reinforces the perception that you guys are not a credible political cause, but a cult. Heaven’s Gate, the Peoples Temple, Yes Scotland. <br />If you all dared to step outside your bubble of mutual back-slapping you guys would realise you have a serious image problem with a large slice of the electorate.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20638607361826742742014-10-02T11:23:56.943+01:002014-10-02T11:23:56.943+01:00Is it not true that the polls typically underestim...Is it not true that the polls typically underestimate the SNP share of the vote, but also when extrapolating this trend from a subsample is fraught with errors <br />However it is balanced by all the polls show the same trend ,It will be interesting when a scot only poll is done (soon ? hopefully ?)ylee coyotenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11240639424478985042014-10-02T11:20:18.921+01:002014-10-02T11:20:18.921+01:00Anon : If anyone could patiently talk me through s...Anon : If anyone could patiently talk me through step-by-step the process of setting up a decent-looking graph, I'd be willing to give it a go. I've tried a few times before and always gave up in despair.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.com