tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post3191007890416504721..comments2024-03-28T15:31:24.324+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Fraser Nelson wants to have his cake and eat it - againJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27528647107260762102015-05-10T19:49:00.916+01:002015-05-10T19:49:00.916+01:00It doesn't work that way - Shadow Scottish Sec...It doesn't work that way - Shadow Scottish Secretary is a title with no constitutional standing, so the SNP can't stop Labour designating someone. But yes, it'll be interesting to see if Murray gets the nod - in normal circumstances he would be a terrible choice.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37019454906244658702015-05-10T19:37:03.727+01:002015-05-10T19:37:03.727+01:00More interesting than the identity of the Sec of S...More interesting than the identity of the Sec of State for Scotland, is the identity of the Shadow Sec of State. While Scotland is used to have a government and Ministers it rejected at the ballot box, this time is unique (I think) in that we rejected the opposition as well. I think the SNP group should be well within their rights to claim this role. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1291595126754754012015-05-10T16:01:05.606+01:002015-05-10T16:01:05.606+01:00Is there any chance the last day swing was purely ...Is there any chance the last day swing was purely down to swing voters walking into the booth and thinking, "Ed? Nah..."? It would explain the dead heat in the final few weeks as well as the (reasonably) accurate exit poll. It would also confirm beyond doubt that the months of anti-SNP and anti-Scottish abuse in the English press wasn't the deciding factor.<br /><br />Wings said for years that the Tories would win on the Ed Factor (or the Kinnock Factor) if nothing else, although he also expected it to be clear cut with a few months to go. Many of us expected the Tories to have a large poll lead by Summer 2014, which would surely have catapulted Yes beyond 50%. Ah well, we live and learn!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63831799841428704172015-05-10T12:28:03.279+01:002015-05-10T12:28:03.279+01:00An interesting idea. But as far as I know the SNP...An interesting idea. But as far as I know the SNP (as a matter of principle) has no members in the Lords. So Goldie could not answer SNP MPs and they could not question her. A fitting image of non-communication perhaps.Dennis Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533079746508505314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80341301229766876242015-05-10T10:45:03.722+01:002015-05-10T10:45:03.722+01:00During the STV election night coverage Annabelle G...During the STV election night coverage Annabelle Goldie was interestingly cagey when asked if she was expected a call from No10. As a peer of course she is eligible for a cabinet post. She would prove a more formidable SoSfS than Mundell. <br /><br />I offer this as proof that I was paying attention in the small hours and was nowhere near drunk. I had Newsshaft in one ear from my mobile and was channel hopping on the box. <br /><br />BTW if STV can switch from white to black lettering on yellow or light green backgrounds for the parties then wtf couldn't the Beeb? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6153942350593836022015-05-09T23:43:13.418+01:002015-05-09T23:43:13.418+01:00When asked at his count whether he'd become So...When asked at his count whether he'd become SoS for S, Mundell said that was way above his pay grade. Think he'd find it difficult to live that remark down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14983219066547251962015-05-09T22:22:52.799+01:002015-05-09T22:22:52.799+01:00I prefer the Forfar Thumb ClapI prefer the Forfar Thumb ClapBrotyboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43675568157852547262015-05-09T22:22:02.191+01:002015-05-09T22:22:02.191+01:00Thanks for the link; very interesting and not a li...Thanks for the link; very interesting and not a little perturbing.Brotyboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7859298972642350982015-05-09T21:38:45.628+01:002015-05-09T21:38:45.628+01:00That Wings post was odd all right.
And the preva...That Wings post was odd all right. <br /><br />And the prevailing idea that Cameron's scaremongering about the SNP was key also seems questionable. If that had been the case surely the pollsters, although badly wrong about the wider picture, would have picked up *some* kind of late swing to the Tories. It seems more likely that general shy Toryism was sitting there undetected by the pollsters for months. Gossip among staff at a certain pollster has it that a degree of shy anti-Semitism may have factored too (bacon sarnie, Ed?) though of course testing this suggestion would be problematic, to say the least. <br /><br />Great to see Slab carrying on with the shameless deceit and voter-contempt that served them so well during the campaign, with Murphy and McDougall blaming Scottish voters and the SNP for a Tory Govt that Better Together themselves paved the way for. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26584327947800334272015-05-09T21:02:46.460+01:002015-05-09T21:02:46.460+01:00Penfold as Sec of State for Scotland? Crikey!
The...Penfold as Sec of State for Scotland? Crikey!<br /><br />The sound of one neuron clapping.Christian Wrighthttp://www.weourselves.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29345868760878189192015-05-09T20:06:15.982+01:002015-05-09T20:06:15.982+01:00Since we partly own the British state,we should de...Since we partly own the British state,we should demand emissary offices in Buckingham Palace.<br />Cameron can visit us when he meets with his cousin Liz.bringitonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10712089398887269381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78377444016210330792015-05-09T19:45:51.578+01:002015-05-09T19:45:51.578+01:00Long but relevant read: https://opendemocracy.net/...Long but relevant read: https://opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/shaun-lawson/polls-and-all-but-one-of-forecasts-were-wrong-ed-miliband-was-nowhere-near-bAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65216335766118477542015-05-09T19:42:59.576+01:002015-05-09T19:42:59.576+01:00Could the Sun in England have helped with a last m...Could the Sun in England have helped with a last minute swing after all?<br />2 hard hitting anti-Miliband front pages.<br /><br />The Edstone fiasco a couple of days before voting didn't help either.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56791764936567027892015-05-09T19:35:43.503+01:002015-05-09T19:35:43.503+01:00Sounds about right. If they can't fulfil the r...Sounds about right. If they can't fulfil the role, remove the role completely. "What's Scotland?" would be typical of that lot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37355546888017025852015-05-09T18:51:11.865+01:002015-05-09T18:51:11.865+01:00IMO the position of SOS for Scotland will be binne...IMO the position of SOS for Scotland will be binned.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64414444943996348292015-05-09T18:40:08.049+01:002015-05-09T18:40:08.049+01:00I was being a wee bit frivolous when I raised the ...I was being a wee bit frivolous when I raised the Secretary of State question. But Cameron does face a real dilemma. I agree with James that he needs to emphasise the Scottish credentials of his government. On that basis, with Carmichael no longer on side, it has to be Mundell.<br /><br />OTOH, does he really want to allow Mundell to debate complex policy issues against the likes of Alex Salmond and Stewart Hosie, week after week, on the floor of the Commons and in the media? Mundell's capacity for political and presentational disaster must give surely give Cameron nightmares.Dennis Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533079746508505314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15416960511379489732015-05-09T17:20:59.040+01:002015-05-09T17:20:59.040+01:00Perhaps they shouldn't bother with a Secretary...Perhaps they shouldn't bother with a Secretary Of State, and instead just deal with Scotland via a Scottish Embassy in London.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37656577626683578182015-05-09T17:14:33.153+01:002015-05-09T17:14:33.153+01:00I understand that the costs for the Scotland offic...I understand that the costs for the Scotland office have skyrocketed under the Tories and that we in Scotland pay for this junketing. That has to be stopped.bjsalbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86088264166752406312015-05-09T16:49:21.839+01:002015-05-09T16:49:21.839+01:00I'm not sure anything happened between 1997 an...I'm not sure anything happened between 1997 and 2001 - the huge drop in turnout reflected the fact that 2001 was the dullest election in post-war history, and everyone knew from the word go it was going to be a second Blair landslide. But there was a big decrease in 1997, and another big decrease in 2001, from which there has only been a partial recovery. I think the explanation for that is the end of Cold War era politics after 1992 - big issues no longer seemed to be at stake.<br /><br />It's quite likely that right-leaning voters are disproportionately likely to turn out, but that's the case even in a high turnout election (witness the referendum).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40586619505006668982015-05-09T16:41:46.611+01:002015-05-09T16:41:46.611+01:00Probably I'm missing something, not being too ...Probably I'm missing something, not being too psephologically inclined, but I keep thinking: maybe we just have to accept that there is no way for polls to factor in people changing their minds at the last minute (or the undecided breaking heavily for a given party). <br />In other words, the polls were perhaps an accurate reflection of what people were telling pollsters, but crucially, they simply can't deal with the last-minute psychology of the voter.<br />My own preference would be for the media etc to stop commissioning so many polls. Not least considering how - as James Kelly often says - they are used to manipulate agendas.<br />But also because they can never tell us what is going to happen with certainty.<br />At the very least, I wish to God the media would stop using headlines like:<br />"Party X set to take Y number of seats" and similar language...they often use forms of words that make it sound like this is what is almost certain to happen. Why not say, "Party X at 35% in poll" etc - far more accurate.<br />Anyway, my main point is that there should be far more focus on policy, and far less on bloody polls!<br />(none of this is aimed at JK's brilliant analyses of polls, much of which debunks msm BS)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14172025067178523389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17453140605024139072015-05-09T16:35:08.481+01:002015-05-09T16:35:08.481+01:00Being a bit of a geek I was looking in some detail...Being a bit of a geek I was looking in some detail at the figures and here's something I noticed.<br /><br />Total Turnout collapsed in 2001 (for the first time it was under 60% and has only recovered to 66.1% (up 1% on 2010). 1945-1997 it was never under 70%, so there are still quite a few people not voting.<br /><br />So something happened between 1997 and 2001 to have the vote collapse as follows.<br /><br />UK in total: from 71.4% to 59.4%<br />England: from 71.4% to 59.2%<br />Scotland: from 73.5% to 61.6%<br />Wales: from 71.3% to 58.2%<br />Northern Ireland: from 67.1% to 68%<br /><br />Now I would put it down to a great many people becoming disillusioned with the political parties. It would be nice to look at party membership trends as well since there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that they have all hollowed out significantly – the exception being the post-referendum surge to the SNP and the Greens in Scotland.<br /><br />Turnout crept up a bit in 2005 (to 61.4% and again in 2010, to 65.1%).<br />Now compare England, Wales and Scotland (sorry Northern Ireland) 1997-2015<br /><br />England: 71.4 %, 59.2%, 61.3%, 65.5%, 65.8% <br />i.e. -12.2%+2.1%+2.2%+0.3% = -7.6% down on 1997<br /><br />Wales: 73.5%, 61.6%, 62.6%, 64.7%, 65.7% <br />i.e. -11.9%+1%+2.1%+1% = -7.8% down on 1997<br /><br />Scotland: 71.3%, 58.2%, 60.8%, 63.8%, 71.1% <br />i.e. -13.1%+2.6%+3.0%+7.3% = -0.2% down on 1997<br /><br />Now I don’t believe that the 7.5+ percent missing in England and Wales are all on the left but I would assume that many Tories turned off from voting in 2001 would have come back into the electorate to try to vote their party in in 2010. <br /><br />It’s interesting that Scotland, where there has been a return of grass-roots politics post-referendum *and* a progressive alternative the vote is virtually back to 1997 levels.<br /><br />You have much more experience of dealing with the numbers. Could there really be a "shy" left in England & Wales, so shy that they no longer even vote?<br />Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03913027169028236056noreply@blogger.com