tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2715278179595745116..comments2024-03-29T04:11:41.539+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: ICM poll : Unprecedented surge for the SNP and Plaid?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68190669088083415352013-06-14T02:50:58.829+01:002013-06-14T02:50:58.829+01:00OK, we've got ourselves totally confused here....OK, we've got ourselves totally confused here. My humblest apologies to the Guardian - they were right all along. The SNP are on 7% (55% in the Scottish subsample), Plaid Cymru are on 1%, and the BNP are indeed on zero. The figures Marcia mentioned are from the May poll (ICM take forever to update their website).<br /><br />In response to James Kay, ICM always used to lump Scotland and the North of England together in a "North" region. They still do that, but at least they now supply an additional breakdown for Scotland (that's why the SNP have the same number of voters in "the North" and in Scotland).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90571078887296475752013-06-13T11:24:39.936+01:002013-06-13T11:24:39.936+01:00The tables are now up on the ICM website.
It seem...The tables are now up on the ICM website.<br /><br />It seems that 30 voters in the 'North' are planning to vote SNP!!! (See page 6)<br /><br />http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/06/2013_guardian_june_poll.pdf<br /><br />On the other hand, there are also 30 voters in Scotland who want to vote for the SNP. I suspect that somewhere in their analysis, their geography has become confused. Easy to do in the mindset of someone who thinks of Scotland as somewhere remote 'up North'.James Kaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90000744358049845142013-06-12T18:07:55.250+01:002013-06-12T18:07:55.250+01:00Yes, I'm not surprised either - the 'Graun...Yes, I'm not surprised either - the 'Grauniad' live up to their nickname once again. It seems they can't distinguish between the BNP (on 5%) and the SNP!<br /><br />But the Ipsos-Mori figures are much better - the SNP in the mid-thirties in the Scottish subsample.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3978422969844831782013-06-12T18:01:10.739+01:002013-06-12T18:01:10.739+01:00As I suspected ICM figures should read 3% and not ...As I suspected ICM figures should read 3% and not 8%:<br /><br />http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/05/2013_may_guardian_poll.pdfMarcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19926374315594548592013-06-12T16:24:39.264+01:002013-06-12T16:24:39.264+01:00Ipsos MORI poll out today:
http://www.ipsos-mori....Ipsos MORI poll out today:<br /><br />http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/jun2013polit_web.PDFMarcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66899414305665959262013-06-12T04:59:25.775+01:002013-06-12T04:59:25.775+01:00I couldn't agree more with Marcia. The poll st...I couldn't agree more with Marcia. The poll stinks of random variation; I suspect we'll see a restoration to the usual 9/10pt lead Labour seem to be experiencing next time round. Good to see you've recognised it in your reference to small Scottish/Welsh samples.<br /><br />In terms of UK government victories, we all know that FPTP currently skews in favour of Labour; the Tories require a good ~12-13pt margin to secure a workable majority in terms of uniform swing, but Labour require far less. Yes, the majority that could be produced with ~7pts would be slender after the intense 2015 GE run-up, but if you count LD fallout going to Lab/Con and Tory votes going to UKIP, I suspect the numbers would stack up favourably. I therefore disagree in terms of your view to a Tory victory, in spite of the leadership, economic credibility and public trust crises Labour presently faces, which will likely be addressed over the next two years as policy emerges.Theonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75666321589947493882013-06-11T14:36:57.225+01:002013-06-11T14:36:57.225+01:00I would find that difficult to believe. Here is po...I would find that difficult to believe. Here is poll for TNS at a combined 5% for SNP/Plaid that appeared yesterday.<br /><br />http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/voting-intentions-data-tables-10-jun-2013_1370877344.pdfMarcianoreply@blogger.com