tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2610267575888544333..comments2024-03-28T13:13:12.506+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP lead by 19% in richly satisfying new YouGov pollJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-793177433083844922015-03-13T13:58:26.758+00:002015-03-13T13:58:26.758+00:00We will get a full poll in May.We will get a full poll in May.Charles O'Brien.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10778040983298966024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29108671761798703662015-03-13T13:57:34.027+00:002015-03-13T13:57:34.027+00:00Another great blogg from Mr.Kelly,always tempered ...Another great blogg from Mr.Kelly,always tempered with logic,great reading.Should save them up and make an abridged version as a book,paperback of course.Charles O'Brien.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10778040983298966024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32439809790181830462015-03-13T11:31:52.116+00:002015-03-13T11:31:52.116+00:00Would be nice to see a Populus full scale Scottish...Would be nice to see a Populus full scale Scottish poll. Seems to be the preserve of Yougov Mori and Survation with the odd offerings from ICM and Panelbase. <br /><br />Don't imagine the red rosette wearers in the Thatcher Tribute Party would glean any comfort from Populus if they did, looking at their last 20 or so Scottish sub samples the SNP lead appears to have actually widened.<br />As the iron lady was asked "what was your greatest achievement or creation as PM?"....."New Labour" were the two words she snapped almost instantaneously. And as much as I despised her politics, I found myself agreeing with her, especially post 09/14.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74156318194479960232015-03-13T11:27:49.574+00:002015-03-13T11:27:49.574+00:00Yes, will start to get ridiculous if they have a L...Yes, will start to get ridiculous if they have a <i>Lab 2010-SNP 2011-SNP2015 (but still deep down love Lab)</i> grouping. For now it's just plain stupid.<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54259355627313730772015-03-13T11:18:13.395+00:002015-03-13T11:18:13.395+00:00But that wasn't the rationale being put forwar...<i>But that wasn't the rationale being put forward - instead we were invited to believe that a rejection of a deal would prevent harm being done to the Union. It's difficult to know whether to laugh or cry - have the Westminster establishment truly learned nothing over the last twenty years?</i><br /><br />Never interrupt an enemy when they are making a mistake. What the British establishment are doing is exactly what they did with the Irish as well. Obviously, there is a different context in Scotland, but they are being as intransigent in their dealings with the Scottish electorate as they were with the Irish one. The Irish Republic may well still be part of the British state if they had been given a significant amount of autonomy. Instead, the British state arrogantly dismissed Irish demands, and the same thing is happening with Scotland.<br /><br />The fact is that the worst thing the British state could do is behave in the manner that we are witnessing at present, with their MSM cronies stirring up anti-Scottish sentiment by the bucket loads of horseshit.muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78786588354649242802015-03-13T11:11:43.387+00:002015-03-13T11:11:43.387+00:00Populus sub-sample:
SNP 45, Lab 26, Con 11, LD 8....Populus sub-sample:<br /><br />SNP 45, Lab 26, Con 11, LD 8.<br /><br />http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_13-03-2015_BPC.pdf<br /><br />Slightly bigger SNP down-weight than in their last few polls.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-428108567975001912015-03-13T11:10:10.224+00:002015-03-13T11:10:10.224+00:00Hopefully YouGov will junk that adjustment after M...Hopefully YouGov will junk that adjustment after May.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12103305842762122812015-03-13T10:52:51.663+00:002015-03-13T10:52:51.663+00:00Also, just noticed there has been HUGE upweighting...Also, just noticed there has been HUGE upweighting of the SNP 2011 (Lab 2010) group, from 40 to 105 respondents. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51694135647911828402015-03-13T10:47:58.427+00:002015-03-13T10:47:58.427+00:00Link to the tables:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudf...Link to the tables:<br /><br />https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2i4cik3x8y/Times_Scotland_150312_Website.pdf<br /><br />Holyrood constituency VI: <br /><br />SNP 49 (-2), Lab 27 (+1), Con 14 (+2), LD 5 (+1), Others 5 (-2).<br /><br />Holyrood list VI:<br /><br />SNP 43 (-1), Lab 25 (+1), Con 15 (+3), Green 8 (=), LD 5 (+1), Others 5 (-3).<br /><br />I wonder if the changes (particularly the Tory boost) is mainly due to the recalled referendum vote adjustment. If anything that would make the poll a bit more accurate. The one thing against that is that Ashcroft had the Tories lower than in 2010 in all of his polls, yet 18% would represent a 1% increase on 2010.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39120531339339117692015-03-13T10:38:37.569+00:002015-03-13T10:38:37.569+00:00Current support for independence is Yes: 49% No: 5...Current support for independence is Yes: 49% No: 51%. A fall from last time, although it looks like the referendum recall figures have finally been weighted back to the actual result. <br /><br />Labour have also overtaken the SNP as who would be best to stop a Covervative Governement (37% to 36%), although that question came after several leading ones, about whether Scotland would be better off under a Labour or Conservative Goverment, and if SNP taking seats from Labour would help the Conservatives. <br /><br />SNP voters are also most decided/very likely to vote for the party they think they will (89%, compared with Labour (85%) and Conservative (87%). Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88165514226009702602015-03-13T10:08:23.789+00:002015-03-13T10:08:23.789+00:00This poll shows the complete failure of Jim Murphy...This poll shows the complete failure of Jim Murphys campaign.<br /><br />His approach was to target the former Labour voters, who had voted Yes in the referendum and had left Labour as a result. he reckoned they were mostly older males, from the Glasgow area.<br /><br />He has therefore looked closely at what it was that made these voters leave Labour, and he has went all out to convince them that 'Labour had Changed' and was now all the things these voters wanted from Labour.<br /><br />Patriotic, Socialist, Not beholding to London, Like a drink at the football, etc etc.<br /><br />In order for the Murphy campaign to have been shown to have worked, Labour needed to see a drop in the SNP vote, and a similar increase in Labours vote, as these older Yesers, came back into Labours fold.<br /><br />The fact that Labour hasn't saw a single percentage point increase, as well as the drop in Jim Murphys personal rating, shows clearly that his campaign has failed.<br /><br />With the pressure within Labour already causing friction, I wonder just how much grumbling will be going on among the activists today about the Murphy team, and I wonder if we will start to see some 'off the record briefings' against McTernan/McDougal/Murphy over the next few days.<br /><br />Would be nice to see the hunter become the hunted.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85381630541159746272015-03-13T10:01:20.903+00:002015-03-13T10:01:20.903+00:00Possibly more a function of the fact that UKIP are...Possibly more a function of the fact that UKIP are standing in relatively few Scottish constituencies. The list I saw posted on Monday by the Electoral Reform Society said there were only 9 UKIP candidates in Scotland (out of 59). <br /><br />The previous YouGov poll had them on 4%, which would be practically impossible with only 9 candidates. A 4% vote share would give them a 26% vote share in those 9 seats, assuming all 59 are of broadly equal size (they aren't in the two cases of the island group seats). Even a 2% national vote share is overly optimistic, but it is at least a bit more realistic.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57056417474738815952015-03-13T09:50:26.655+00:002015-03-13T09:50:26.655+00:00look at today's Daily Record cover - savage st...look at today's Daily Record cover - savage stuff indeedDavid Agnewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5973109770744987562015-03-13T08:17:47.050+00:002015-03-13T08:17:47.050+00:00So that's the British army now having a say on...So that's the British army now having a say on how Scotland should be 'occupied'.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/ministry-of-defence-opposed-further-devolution-to-scotland.120570512" rel="nofollow">http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/ministry-of-defence-opposed-further-devolution-to-scotland.120570512</a><br /><br />All fine though right. I mean foreign government controlled armies acting to limit democratic governance is nothing to be concerned about now is it.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43475895091726658502015-03-13T07:25:03.391+00:002015-03-13T07:25:03.391+00:00You never know. It's probably mostly political...You never know. It's probably mostly political amoraks that actually realise that SNP are in the lead. This news will get even more widely known during the campaign. I think this can only help SNP - many people like to back a winner - also there can be no longer argument that an SNP vote is a wasted vote as they are competitive in every seat in the country. We just have to be wary of the same suspects from the referendum (newspapers, BBC, Westminster elite and their big business pals).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12363479976693016493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40384908925637404242015-03-13T02:51:49.194+00:002015-03-13T02:51:49.194+00:00I don't think there is a deal, but it's no...I don't think there is a deal, but it's not hard to see how the Greens could indirectly benefit from the SNP wiping out the pro-austerity unionist parties.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68842533137699173672015-03-13T02:47:48.850+00:002015-03-13T02:47:48.850+00:00It has done for decades, so you can see why they&#...It has done for decades, so you can see why they'd keep trying it.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40070667645182316402015-03-13T02:47:05.621+00:002015-03-13T02:47:05.621+00:00I would've thought it's just because they ...I would've thought it's just because they can't afford too many lost deposits. What kind of deal do you think could exist between the Greens and SNP? I mean, what could the Greens get out of it?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82115245558060755292015-03-13T02:40:25.933+00:002015-03-13T02:40:25.933+00:00Added to that, they chose the wrong leader. He has...<i>Added to that, they chose the wrong leader. He has no charisma, no charm. He doesn't even have sex appeal, which might have helped him with some. He's not articulate, he has an irritating voice, and his protestations of being a patriotic Scottish socialist are beyond parody.</i><br /><br />Are you saying Boyack or Findlay beat him in any of these departments (apart from the socialist one)?<br /><br />I'd say he is actually pretty articulate, and has a certain kind of homiletic charm. In the 2010 leader (or whatever) debates he did better than Salmond. His main problem is that he's too nakedly unprincipled, too willing to say anything, no matter how meaningless. The NHS stuff is the prime example. Fighting a Westminster election on an issue just about everyone now knows is devolved is pushing the public's gullibility just a bit too far.<br /><br />But who do you think would've made the best leader, from what was on offer?keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4737688889350127792015-03-13T01:21:52.041+00:002015-03-13T01:21:52.041+00:00I'll admit to being somewhat nervous as to wha...I'll admit to being somewhat nervous as to what might happen to the SNP's solid lead once we get into the "official" campaign period. Then again look what happened to Labour's position during the business end of the 2011 campaign. I'm stuck between wondering whether the SNP's lead will dwindle, or that they might stick on a few more % come 7 May. I don't dare to dream.Iain Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46093024560108598722015-03-13T00:59:07.785+00:002015-03-13T00:59:07.785+00:00Of course we can't take anything for granted, ...Of course we can't take anything for granted, but I expected the lead to be quite a bit smaller by now. With only two months to go, time really is running out for Labour. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8598447882365402832015-03-13T00:41:57.147+00:002015-03-13T00:41:57.147+00:00@tris
"The negativity and talking down of ev...@tris<br /><br />"The negativity and talking down of everything that people in Scotland work hard to provide...NHS, schools, police social workers, just seems now to hack everyone off."<br /><br />Yes, and now we see the running down of Scotland because of the latest finance figures, where we had a relatively bad year.<br /><br />They seem to delight in telling Scots they are useless and need subsidised by London. Rather than needing the powers to compete with London.<br /><br />I don't see why that attitude would make people want to vote for their party.<br />Onwardsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38966026042347640532015-03-13T00:32:31.413+00:002015-03-13T00:32:31.413+00:00I wish to hell they weren't running here, wher...I wish to hell they weren't running here, where we're neck and neck with the Tories and need every vote we can get to send Mundell packing.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36093785357576387342015-03-13T00:13:47.739+00:002015-03-13T00:13:47.739+00:00O/T but interesting
Those who are real anoraks w...O/T but interesting<br /><br />Those who are real anoraks would have noticed that the Greens in Scotland are only running in about half of the constituencies. That by itself is not astonishing but if you dig deeper and look at the constituencies where they currently have no candidate, you will note a pattern. They appear to be not running candidates in rural seats currently held by the LibDems, and in seats in the West of Scotland.currently projected as close seats between Labour and SNP.<br /><br />A cynical person would deduce some kind of agreement between the Greens and SNP in those seats. If this holds, one could reasonably expect that most of the Scottish Green vote ( not all) is likely to end up in the SNP column in those seats and this may make a considerable difference in the end result.Brian Nicholsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36773066215688037752015-03-12T23:56:01.604+00:002015-03-12T23:56:01.604+00:002011 Constituency results
...2011 Constituency results<br /> Votes % (+/-) <br />SNP 902,915 45.39 (+12.46) <br />Labour 630,461 31.69 (-0.45) <br />Conservative 276,652 13.91 (-2.69) <br />LibDem 157,714 7.93 (-8.25) <br /> Brian Nicholsonnoreply@blogger.com