tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post257079602929974199..comments2024-03-29T07:48:22.768+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Solidarity are more likely than RISE to take a seat next yearJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55020428057533957472015-11-18T08:39:14.169+00:002015-11-18T08:39:14.169+00:00Good to see the continuing steady decline in the L...Good to see the continuing steady decline in the Labour vote and a steady increase in the SNP. <br /><br />I wonder if they are in any way related?<br /><br />Onwards and upwards to Hollywood 2016.<br />Hosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07962638502091728814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44480417236493172362015-11-18T08:22:30.650+00:002015-11-18T08:22:30.650+00:00SNP 54% and 56% in UK Survation and ICM poll subsa...SNP 54% and 56% in UK Survation and ICM poll subsamples respectively.<br /><br />Labour 17% in both.<br /><br />For what it's worth.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87272074443197729512015-11-18T06:44:14.702+00:002015-11-18T06:44:14.702+00:00The Labour man wants you to shut up and eat your c...The Labour man wants you to shut up and eat your cereal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70647972530974973862015-11-18T06:42:41.726+00:002015-11-18T06:42:41.726+00:00The Labour man wants you to shut up and eat your c...The Labour man wants you to shut up and eat your cereal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38932661794344968422015-11-18T06:37:53.327+00:002015-11-18T06:37:53.327+00:00Eat your cereal.Eat your cereal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50347246469884979022015-11-18T02:16:16.059+00:002015-11-18T02:16:16.059+00:00Anon, fool Nat si hiding. Not up front who are you...Anon, fool Nat si hiding. Not up front who are you. What party?Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44585114784072120882015-11-18T00:23:43.723+00:002015-11-18T00:23:43.723+00:00David, I attended a special birthday party for Har...David, I attended a special birthday party for Harry McShane in the Mitchell Theatre during the seventies. He joked about the various parties that tried to recruit him over the years. The SWP had a go but he refused. He was wurkin class tae the end. Petty Nationalism I reckon would have repulsed him. Nationalism is the last vestige of despots with nothing to offer but self interest.<br />Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44713548753972107412015-11-17T23:50:16.276+00:002015-11-17T23:50:16.276+00:00They will in the form of Scottish Nat sis.They will in the form of Scottish Nat sis.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44881823984373034222015-11-17T21:25:18.612+00:002015-11-17T21:25:18.612+00:00Anon or perhaps Pt who knows who cares. No bottle ...Anon or perhaps Pt who knows who cares. No bottle no name hiding in cyberspace. You owe Blair an apology.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37476486661454065772015-11-17T20:26:31.624+00:002015-11-17T20:26:31.624+00:00I did the numbers for Central region basing it on ...I did the numbers for Central region basing it on the percentages in May. If the votes hold up I am expecting all regional seats to fall to the SNP, and for 1 list seat ( the 7th ) depending on the strength of parties other than the red or blue tories. <br /><br />I expect the beneficiaries of attempts at tactical voting to be the Conservatives. They poll quite well in some areas. <br /><br />There is a good website which was listed here before <br /><br />http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015_11_01_archive.html<br /><br />What would help most is if people would stick with SNP for both votes.<br /><br />And d'Hondt is not difficult to follow. I found a schools website explaining it best, but cannot find the link. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90225143554203512692015-11-17T20:11:12.953+00:002015-11-17T20:11:12.953+00:00And talking of taking a rise out of us all. up pop...And talking of taking a rise out of us all. up pops fucknuts.<br /><br />Go eat your cereal. You are not welcome here. Splash.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83860545820715766812015-11-17T20:07:36.472+00:002015-11-17T20:07:36.472+00:00"That's the reality, my friends, that'..."That's the reality, my friends, that's the reality!" To quote the man himself. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15562182375183123037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84930684306820226002015-11-17T19:18:57.720+00:002015-11-17T19:18:57.720+00:00Sheridan is on my patch. He has no chance. Maybe h...Sheridan is on my patch. He has no chance. Maybe he can try in ten years time when a generation that know him has moved on. I wonder where he gets the deposits from. Certainly not by grafting like the people he suppoedly represents.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58257236989420370482015-11-17T18:03:47.927+00:002015-11-17T18:03:47.927+00:00Even if the SNP got all 8 constituency seats in Hi...Even if the SNP got all 8 constituency seats in Highands and Islands for instance, they would still based on uniform swing, get 1 list seat, not 0. Lab would get 2, LibDem 2, Con 1 and Green 1, total 7.<br /><br />2011 list vote overall: SNP 44, Lab 26.3, Con 12.4, Lib 5.2, Green 4.4, UKIP 0.9.<br />Latest opinion poll list vote: SNP 52, Lab 25, Con 11, Lib 5, Green 5, UKIP 2 (ignore UKP).<br /><br />2011 result for H&I: SNP 47.5, Lab 14.5, Con 11.6, Lib 12.1, Green 5.1.<br />Calculated 2016: SNP 56.1, Lab 13.8, Con 10.3, Lib 11.6, Greeen 5.8.<br /><br />SNP initial divisor 8+1 = 9, all the rest 1. List seat allocation would go (with divisor):<br /><br />Lab 13.8% / 1 = 13.8<br />Lib 11.6% / 1 = 11.6<br />Con 10.3% / 1 = 10.3<br />Lab 13.8% / 2 = 6.9<br />SNP 56.1% / 9 = 6.25<br />Lib 11.6% / 2 = 5.8<br />Green 5.8% / 1 = 5.8<br /><br />Standings after those 7 list seats would be SNP 56.1% / 10 = 5.6, Lab 13.8% / 3 = 4.6, Lib 11.6% / 3 = 3.9, Con 10.3% / 2 = 5.15, Green 5.8% / 2 = 3.9. If there was an 8th list seat, the SNP would get it on 5.6, ahead of the Cons at 5.15.<br /><br />And the formula for the Uniform Swing prediction of 2016 list vote for H&I for each party is:<br /><br />H&I 2016 list = 2011 list * Latest Opinion poll overall standing / 2011 overall standing. e.g. SNP = 47.5 * 52 / 44 = 56.1%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81094465052609382132015-11-17T18:02:56.917+00:002015-11-17T18:02:56.917+00:00But the name was nabbed and registered by someone ...But the name was nabbed and registered by someone else with the EC, wasn't it?Haplegnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55855866671410995002015-11-17T18:01:24.711+00:002015-11-17T18:01:24.711+00:00What is happening is that some people are making c...What is happening is that some people are making comments as definitive, for all 8 regions, that are opinions and are not based on any actual regional projected figures. There's a lot of heat, and no light on this, with comments such as "clearly nobody understands the d'Hondt system", but clearly with no understanding themselves.<br /><br />What I suggest is that people get asked to give figures to back up their claims. Based on the 2011 Holyrood results broken down by region, easily available from the dreaded Beeb, based on the overall list percentages for each party, and the latest list opinion poll.<br /><br />Always with the rider that opinion polls don't reflect the actual result, and any formula such as uniform swing used to work out resulting percentages for any region, can be opposed with another formula - plus of course private polling by campaigners in constituencies / regions. I give an example (Hiohalnds and Islands) I bothered calculating, in a second posting below, showing the calculations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75164720084591627522015-11-17T17:12:36.623+00:002015-11-17T17:12:36.623+00:00That could be down to simple demographics.A percen...That could be down to simple demographics.A percentage of Tories won't be sure of being around next May.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91539990987516672312015-11-17T16:32:18.852+00:002015-11-17T16:32:18.852+00:00By 'stepping in' what would they DO?By 'stepping in' what would they DO?Niallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15499424676960568140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80330331863033736972015-11-17T15:21:20.080+00:002015-11-17T15:21:20.080+00:00Interestingly, in the recent TNS poll, out of all ...Interestingly, in the recent TNS poll, out of all the main parties, SNP voters say they are the most likely to vote<br /><br />Certain to vote:<br />87% SNP<br />84% Lab<br />80% Con<br /><br />Certain not to vote:<br />10% Labour<br />5% Con<br />4% SNP<br /><br />If that pattern was accentuated on voting day, could result in even higher SNP.<br /><br />Must admit I was surprised Tory voters are the most apathetic.<br /><br />Maybe they care less for the union that we think.<br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1217976132629226322015-11-17T15:05:33.764+00:002015-11-17T15:05:33.764+00:00'Solisheridanarity' could work.'Solisheridanarity' could work.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80014753400169083752015-11-17T15:04:27.396+00:002015-11-17T15:04:27.396+00:00Aren't you better asking this on the website t...Aren't you better asking this on the website the commissioned the poll?Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59835370949208649812015-11-17T14:58:28.356+00:002015-11-17T14:58:28.356+00:00Didn't the bath man do a full Scottish poll (P...Didn't the bath man do a full Scottish poll (Panelbase) recently? If so, where are the Holyrood voting intention figures?<br /><br />Publish the poll!!! ;0)Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67637148603917489872015-11-17T14:57:09.054+00:002015-11-17T14:57:09.054+00:00Yes, it will - once it becomes abundantly clear to...Yes, it will - once it becomes abundantly clear to the 45 that Sturgeon has no intention to hold a referendum rerun anytime soon. Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76047435942597662082015-11-17T14:51:17.854+00:002015-11-17T14:51:17.854+00:00"the rise of smaller pro indy parties" -..."the rise of smaller pro indy parties" - that'll be happening any minute now...commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69830771364269804152015-11-17T14:39:33.278+00:002015-11-17T14:39:33.278+00:00Yes and the thing that gives the nationalists an e...Yes and the thing that gives the nationalists an electoral advantage, mainly, is that they are united and the pro-UK camp disunited. With the rise of smaller pro indy parties, that advantage will be thrown away. Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.com