tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2447413758147633793..comments2024-03-28T12:33:40.905+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: It's not all grim for Jim - he has neigh problems with the equine voteJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24248688584887772222015-04-02T15:33:18.827+01:002015-04-02T15:33:18.827+01:00It's being reported that Jim Murphy is predict...It's being reported that Jim Murphy is predicting a last minute surge to Labour, as people realise it will be Cameron or Milliband, yada yada yada.<br /><br />A lot of people are worried that him saying this is an indication that he knows Labour are planning a postal vote fraud.<br /><br />I'm not so sure about this, as I just think it's classic Labour Speak.<br />They can't say, hey it looks like we have got no chance because we have thrown the kitchen sink at Scottish voters with threats of Tory's getting into power, and the meltdown of our NHS, but the polls simply aren't budging.<br /><br />He has to keep his activists enthused, and he definitely needs to keep a lid on the simmering, divisions within the Labour Party, that would break out into full scale war, if they become sure they are about to lose their seats.<br /><br />Just look at the leaks to the press about Maggie Curran, getting all the funds directed to her seat because she was worried that she might lose.<br /><br />Our good friend Duncan Hothersall, had an on line Twitter exchange with a Labour activist, after Labour had began to rule out a coalition with the SNP, and some suggested they were ruling out any formal deals.<br /><br />She told him that she had met with other activists that day, and they were all very angry at Milliband for doing this.<br />She told Duncan that they all felt betrayed and demoralised, explaining that this would not go down well with Scots, so Scotland had been sacrificed, for the Labour vote in the South East.<br /><br />Duncan assured her that although the polls were looking bad at that time, this move would in fact change it into Labours favour, as Scots would see a vote for the SNP, as a wasted vote.<br /><br />She asked him, when they should start to see the turn around in the polls, his reply:<br /><br />At the beginning of April.<br /><br />Oh dear, looks like Labour are already missing targets, and they aren't even in power! lol.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83121388320937303462015-04-02T15:15:08.570+01:002015-04-02T15:15:08.570+01:00It's just the nature of Populus and the fact i...It's just the nature of Populus and the fact its a subsample. Populus use a spiral of silence reallocation of DK back to 2010 which benefits pro-union parties.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91747710920791929802015-04-02T14:44:03.806+01:002015-04-02T14:44:03.806+01:00SS where the heck are the Libs getting 8% from!SS where the heck are the Libs getting 8% from!November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43241476986212871872015-04-02T13:09:22.555+01:002015-04-02T13:09:22.555+01:00Just took part in a (very short) Panelbase survey:...Just took part in a (very short) Panelbase survey:<br /><br />VI for WM 2015<br />Past constit vote in H'rood 2011<br />Past vote for Indyref 2014<br />VI for hypothetical future indyref<br />When/whether Scotland would be independent<br />Should there be another indyref and if so when?<br />Agree/disagree if 4 major parties support making Scotland a more equal society.<br /><br />Didn't take notes so might not have remembered everything.HapLegnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85328763867338700162015-04-02T11:15:51.757+01:002015-04-02T11:15:51.757+01:00Populus UK Scotland subsample:
44% SNP
28% Lab
16%...Populus UK Scotland subsample:<br />44% SNP<br />28% Lab<br />16% Con<br />8% Lib<br />3% Green<br />1% UKIP<br /><br />http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_02-04-2015_BPC.pdf<br /><br />Only a small SNP down-weight.<br /><br />All's quiet on the western front. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10800896748346682892015-04-02T09:28:51.121+01:002015-04-02T09:28:51.121+01:00Love the graph. Excellent work.Love the graph. Excellent work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37403577401733658692015-04-02T06:22:25.068+01:002015-04-02T06:22:25.068+01:00SNP 42 Lab 27 Con 23 Lib 3 UKIP 4 Green 2
http://...SNP 42 Lab 27 Con 23 Lib 3 UKIP 4 Green 2<br /><br />http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qor6izxq75/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-010415.pdfKevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79451223682127189612015-04-02T01:43:28.455+01:002015-04-02T01:43:28.455+01:00Yes, quite possibly. But with Labour in Scotland b...Yes, quite possibly. But with Labour in Scotland becoming so desperate, they're quite likely to burn any press contacts they have in their attempts to survive, so the journos should make sure they don't get their fingers burned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25613260266326630992015-04-02T00:46:49.071+01:002015-04-02T00:46:49.071+01:00Tomorrow's Sun You Gov poll has
Con 36 Lab 34...Tomorrow's Sun You Gov poll has<br /><br />Con 36 Lab 34 Lib 8 UKIP 13 Green 4 - 95%. <br /><br />Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70879747464456928522015-04-01T23:24:14.337+01:002015-04-01T23:24:14.337+01:00I agree, it looks wacky but it's what the numb...I agree, it looks wacky but it's what the numbers say given that in Scotland UKIP are polling now polling around 4.01%, which is up 5.74x from the 2010 result of 0.7%. In 2010 6.3% of Orkney and Shetland voted UKIP. Hopefully I'm wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84684102662074444622015-04-01T19:19:56.938+01:002015-04-01T19:19:56.938+01:00Re: the question about 'depth of support' ...Re: the question about 'depth of support' I'm pretty sure that polling has shown SNP-intending voters are more likely to have firmly made up their mind than Labour-intending voters: albeit the difference isn't too big.Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51839223018765693222015-04-01T19:14:09.748+01:002015-04-01T19:14:09.748+01:00In these serious times, a small bit of humour is a...In these serious times, a small bit of humour is always welcome.<br /><br />My apologies to Ernest Lawrence Thayer ( author of Mighty Casey at the Bat)..........<br /><br />The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Labour crew that day:<br />The polls stood four to two, with but barely time to play.<br />And then when Blair sent packing first, and Brown did follow same,<br />A sickly silence fell upon the patrons of the game.<br />A straggling few got up to go in deep despair. The rest<br />Clung to that hope which springs eternal in the human breast;<br />They thought, if only Murphy could get but a chance to wear the hat -<br />We'd put up even money, now, with Murphy at the bat.<br />But Gray preceded Murphy, as did also Johann Lamont,<br />And the former was a lulu and the latter was founding want;<br />So upon that stricken multitude grim melancholy sat,<br />For there seemed but little chance of Murphy's getting to the hat.<br />But McTernan wrote a jingle, to the wonderment of all,<br />And McDougall, the much despised, joined tall Jimmy’s stall;<br />And when the dust had lifted, and the men saw what had occurred,<br />There was Jimmy safe in office and Kezia a-hugging Byrd.<br />Then from 5,000 throats and more there rose a lusty cry;<br />It rumbled through the valley, it rattled across the sky;<br />It knocked upon the mountain and recoiled upon the flat,<br />For Murphy, mighty Murphy, had advanced and took the hat.<br />There was ease in Murphy's manner as he stepped into his place;<br />There was pride in Murphy’s bearing and a smile on Murphy's face.<br />And when, responding to the cheers, he shyly climbed his crate,<br />No stranger in the crowd could doubt 'twas Murphy at Gallowgate.<br />Ten thousand eyes were on him as he filled the air with dirt;<br />Five thousand tongues applauded when he wiped egg from his shirt.<br />Then while the writhing listeners ground their teeth in never-ending grip ,<br />Defiance gleamed in Murphy's eye, a sneer curled Murphy's lip.<br />And now another putrid egg came hurtling through the air,<br />And Murphy stood a-watching it in haughty grandeur there.<br />Close by the sturdy crate the eggs unheeded sped-<br />"That ain't my style," said Murphy. "Day one," the Nat man said.<br />From the media benches, black with people, there went up a muffled roar,<br />Like the beating of the storm-waves on a stern and distant shore.<br />"Kill him! Kill the Nat!" shouted someone from his band;<br />And its likely they'd a-killed him had not Murphy raised his hand.<br />With a smile of Christian charity great Murphy's visage shone;<br />He stilled the rising tumult; he bade the day go on;<br />He ignored again the picture, and once more the polls shone through;<br />But Murphy still ignored them, even as McTernan cried, "Vote Blue."<br />"Fraud!" cried the maddened thousands, and echo answered fraud;<br />But one scornful look from Murphy and the audience again was awed.<br />They saw his face grow stern and cold, they saw his muscles strain,<br />And they knew that Murphy wouldn't let the Nats fly by again.<br />The sneer is gone from Murphy's lip, his teeth are clenched in hate;<br />He pounds with cruel violence his fist upon his pate.<br />And now the voters are in the hall, and now they make their judgement so,<br />And now the air is shattered by the result of Murphy's show.<br />Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;<br />The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,<br />And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;<br />But there is no joy in Labour - mighty Murphy’s been found out.<br />Brian Nicholsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62685996713860036342015-04-01T18:20:50.113+01:002015-04-01T18:20:50.113+01:00@ yesindyref2
Or perhaps they both get handed ...@ yesindyref2<br /><br />Or perhaps they both get handed 'press releases' from the Labour Party, and so both of them printed the same blooper?Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6232143599851406802015-04-01T18:06:48.257+01:002015-04-01T18:06:48.257+01:00James, thanks for that about Comres and Herald tot...James, thanks for that about Comres and Herald totally blooping it. In defence of Magnus, the Scotsman comes out with its stories earlier, and Magnus clearly takes those articles and rewords them, same for one or two other newpapers. Sloppy and lazy work. Normally I find he tries quite hard to balance his own articles.<br /><br />I was first in commenting on the first article and pointed out the error, confidently expecting a correction - instead a second with the same rubbish came out after I went to my pit. I did put in a reply to soeone along the lines of "Magnus is usually factual but got it wrong on this occasion", but it was deleted. So at least the moderators got the message! I also put in about Scotland's second psephologist and Scot Goes Pop, suggesting the Herald always checked here first to make sure it didn't get it so badly wrong. Also deleted! Ah well, it's not often I get deleted as I stay away from criticising editorial policy of journalists, so I hope they get the message.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3327609594498818762015-04-01T17:33:52.751+01:002015-04-01T17:33:52.751+01:00Maybe this is one Rev Stu at Wings could put in on...Maybe this is one Rev Stu at Wings could put in one his future polls? However, I guess any wording to guage the depth of party support would need a great deal of thought to produce any meaningful answers?Steve Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71532982538799807112015-04-01T16:40:50.150+01:002015-04-01T16:40:50.150+01:00Yes November 13, I think that's at the root of...Yes November 13, I think that's at the root of the inevitability of Independence should the polls be correct. It could be relatively quick, or it may drag on and on via house to house constitutional skirmishes, but if the Scots electorate have really actually changed and continually return non Unionist political representation, then the Union is finished. <br /><br />Once this voting pattern is established and (importantly) accepted by both 'nationalists' and unionists alike, the first real test of sovereign power (national interest) perceived won unfairly (by either side) will result in a voluntary end to Union. <br /><br />I think it's an inescapable mechanism, under the current (and historic) Westminster fetish of absolute Parliamentary Sovereignty. The establishment that it gives complete power to have always chosen to lose territory (and its' democratic irritant) rather than have to address the UK'' (empire) structural democratic deficit, at the expense of absolute power, in order to retain percieved territorial integrity. See, India, Australia, Canada, NewZealand, Ireland, etc etc.<br /><br />bracoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71750570369442380742015-04-01T15:57:51.973+01:002015-04-01T15:57:51.973+01:00On a more serious note, it seems to me that those ...On a more serious note, it seems to me that those who move away from one political party to another often go through a transition. They start as Party X strong, move to Party X weak, then to undecided, on to Party Y weak and finally end up in Party Y strong. This usually takes a series of elections to manifest.<br /><br />In Scotland, the referendum seems to have accelerated that transition with many former Labour YES voters now supporting the SNP. From the recent polling, it appears that most of those are now SNP strong rather than SNP weak, and thus will be hard, if not impossible, to be pulled back to Labour. Coupled with that is the small number of undecided voters showing up in the polls. This would seem to indicate an electorate which is hard wired to its current voting intention with very little room for movement.<br /><br />This does not bode well for either Labour or the LibDems. The SNP vote is growing and only the Conservative and Unionist vote seems to be immune to transition,<br /><br />It would be a great benefit if a poll were to dig deeper into party support to determine the relative strength of that support.Brian Nicholsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15743036596823229022015-04-01T15:37:01.966+01:002015-04-01T15:37:01.966+01:00In the five constituencies that the Middleland Int...In the five constituencies that the Middleland Integrationists are running, do we refer to their candidates as the M!5?Brian Nicholsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24166309077555271502015-04-01T15:16:50.718+01:002015-04-01T15:16:50.718+01:00So here is the thing if 45 SNP Mp's are return...So here is the thing if 45 SNP Mp's are returned. Then we are effectively operating in two different political states. The Tories and Labour are irrelevent, and do not represent Scotland. Yet one of those two will still be running Scotland!<br /><br />Is this a legitimate claim for Scotland to leave the union, as the state no longer represents the people at any level.November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-493217888348829492015-04-01T14:47:38.979+01:002015-04-01T14:47:38.979+01:00UKIP winning Orkney with 37.71% of the vote ?UKIP winning Orkney with 37.71% of the vote ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54633355082675103832015-04-01T14:35:51.014+01:002015-04-01T14:35:51.014+01:00Interesting that Professor Curtice took a more opt...Interesting that Professor Curtice took a more optimistic (for the SNP) / more pessimistic (for Labour) view of the ComRes poll than the ITV expert. Curtice reckons Labour would only hold 5 seats based on the poll.<br /><br />http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/comres-poll-of-labour-seats-confirms-labours-difficulties/Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33624365095143747092015-04-01T14:33:57.345+01:002015-04-01T14:33:57.345+01:00Doesn't say a lot for whoever is analysing pol...Doesn't say a lot for whoever is analysing polls for the Scottish Labour press department then.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60064850554322903542015-04-01T12:52:27.990+01:002015-04-01T12:52:27.990+01:00Here's a graphical poll of polls for Scottish ...Here's a graphical poll of polls for Scottish Electorate:<br />http://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_30.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89052355507282468302015-04-01T12:51:36.469+01:002015-04-01T12:51:36.469+01:00Imagine two entirely independent journalists worki...Imagine two entirely independent journalists working for entirely separate publications both making the same utterly laughable mistake.<br /><br />It's almost as if they are just writing what someone else tells them to. But that can't possibly be the case, can it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87822245834591634492015-04-01T11:41:23.044+01:002015-04-01T11:41:23.044+01:00Some nameless one speaking on behalf of "Scot...Some nameless one speaking on behalf of "Scottish" Labour says the polls are bad for the SNP as they got 45% in the Referendum and are polling less than that for the GE.<br /><br />Where to begin.<br /><br />OK, the best opposing Army you can fight, is the one still trying to fight the last war which they really lost but declared that they won.<br /><br />Dontcha just luv 'em?Bugger le Pandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15924663556503952533noreply@blogger.com