tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2245431854840817751..comments2024-03-28T10:46:35.575+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Tantalising TNS poll suggests the SNP still enjoy enormous leadJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54291996681366159342015-10-09T15:22:30.925+01:002015-10-09T15:22:30.925+01:00We probably didn't see a surge in Tory support...We probably didn't see a surge in Tory support because lowest vote share of a Conservative majority government in a century (in Scotland AND the UK, mind) doesn't exactly strike me as "kicking ass."Taranaichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02176999342965850175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85318221194514926802015-10-09T13:38:42.501+01:002015-10-09T13:38:42.501+01:00Dreadful figures for Brit Nat Labour and that is d...Dreadful figures for Brit Nat Labour and that is despite getting an easy run of it in the Brit Nat Press and Media in Jockistan. Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41868921380870043572015-10-09T13:03:27.144+01:002015-10-09T13:03:27.144+01:00That wasn't a landslide / end of an era type r...That wasn't a landslide / end of an era type result (see polls after 1997 for example). Labour increased their vote share more than the Tories May. Tories did quite poorly; just got lucky with FPTP to scrape them a majority.<br /><br />Anyway, the TNS numbers don't seem to have changed that much; for example this poll would show higher SNP than the last one if it wasn't for problems getting an H&I sample; heavily up-weighted and unusually low SNP. Rest of Scotland shows SNP up on last month; possibly a reaction to #ThomsongateScottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50380713406861187882015-10-09T12:13:45.957+01:002015-10-09T12:13:45.957+01:00You are the one who appears more like a Natsi with...You are the one who appears more like a Natsi with your idiotic comments GlasgowWorkingClass are you seriously thinking that Labour or the Tories offer Scotland a better deal if so then you are seriously deluded.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06712693854913429452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36879138691657662422015-10-09T09:23:19.205+01:002015-10-09T09:23:19.205+01:00"you get folk who say they backed / would bac..."you get folk who say they backed / would back the party that's just kicked ass"<br /><br />Why didn't we see a surge in tory support then? :0)))))))<br /><br />Aldo Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32022753545662083892015-10-09T08:29:29.826+01:002015-10-09T08:29:29.826+01:00Eat your cereal.Eat your cereal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32052029468356975392015-10-09T00:19:23.571+01:002015-10-09T00:19:23.571+01:00Do not worry Paul it is an impersonator. I am the ...Do not worry Paul it is an impersonator. I am the real thing. Nat si hater and Unionist.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8807987216581409552015-10-09T00:15:31.581+01:002015-10-09T00:15:31.581+01:00As in the polling prior to the Westminster elelect...As in the polling prior to the Westminster elelection,it will take a huge amount of work to turn these opinion polls into actual results.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28788641492162059042015-10-08T22:29:20.095+01:002015-10-08T22:29:20.095+01:00Good polling figures. 8 months to go.Good polling figures. 8 months to go.Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12329583030850678262015-10-08T20:29:00.304+01:002015-10-08T20:29:00.304+01:00Re: the theory you construct then dismiss. I'm...Re: the theory you construct then dismiss. I'm sure you're correct and that the movements are pretty much solely margin of error noise but it did bubble up one idle thought in my head: what would it take for right-of -voters currently backing the Tories but who are not died-in-the-wool unionists to vote SNP/back indy if they thought there was a chance of there being a Corbyn UK government?Haplegnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48800416920236624662015-10-08T19:33:31.467+01:002015-10-08T19:33:31.467+01:00From previous elections quite a fair percentage do...From previous elections quite a fair percentage does actually go to a whole range of small parties. Independents, varieties of Socialist ( and we have Rise as an umberella now ), Religious Fundamentalists and the like. In my region it was about 8% of the actual votes cast last time out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58416170759105326952015-10-08T19:31:13.407+01:002015-10-08T19:31:13.407+01:00Looks like just problems getting an H&I sample...Looks like just problems getting an H&I sample is causing a variation. It's a tiny wee sample from there, heavily up weighted (much more so than usual), and unusually low SNP as a result. If you remove it (in this and the last), the SNP are up on the last poll by a couple of points. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20793338535396088922015-10-08T18:41:35.105+01:002015-10-08T18:41:35.105+01:00James, where did 4% go on the constituency vote? T...James, where did 4% go on the constituency vote? To the Greens?Craighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06269318540856074376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31190057980478117832015-10-08T15:36:06.984+01:002015-10-08T15:36:06.984+01:00Paul - Yes I believe it is...maybe he is leaving t...Paul - Yes I believe it is...maybe he is leaving the sinking ship!November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57887908436779654512015-10-08T14:39:39.570+01:002015-10-08T14:39:39.570+01:00My word is that a compliment to the SNP from Glasg...My word is that a compliment to the SNP from GlasgowWorkingClass I think I need a lie down. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06712693854913429452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64838684237431631682015-10-08T13:21:36.817+01:002015-10-08T13:21:36.817+01:00Very good polling figures for the SNP. Dreadful f...Very good polling figures for the SNP. Dreadful for the other parties.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4398221842493207932015-10-08T13:04:26.749+01:002015-10-08T13:04:26.749+01:00"So it's beginning to look like the most ...<i>"So it's beginning to look like the most extreme phase of the SNP's extraordinary post-May honeymoon is now over, and that we perhaps won't see the 60% barrier being broken again. "</i><br /><br />That was probably just 'revelling in the glory' people. It happens after big wins; you get folk who say they backed / would back the party that's just kicked ass. Lasts a month or two then settles down. TNS just seem to be falling into line with other pollsters now showing the SNP into the 50's. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16685292259479231462015-10-08T13:00:34.433+01:002015-10-08T13:00:34.433+01:00Perhaps the SG announcement of extending the morat...Perhaps the SG announcement of extending the moratorium to UCG may allay some fears from SNP thinking about Green. Seems only a matter of time before it is permanent.<br /><br />Second thought is that the Scottish GE campaign has just started it may firm SNP vote.<br /><br />Third thing; Tory Government goes right wing extreme, and doesn't look as if Corbyn is emerging as the answer, so that would hopefully persuade some more that a strong SNP Gov will be working for Scotland.<br /><br />Fourth thought; Mundell openly stating the new tax for Scotland is a trap, should piss off some Labour folks, and where are they going to go for someone to represent them.Brian Powellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67993635996594324452015-10-08T12:53:25.714+01:002015-10-08T12:53:25.714+01:00No counting chickens.No counting chickens.bjsalbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40317338032330544702015-10-08T12:25:14.608+01:002015-10-08T12:25:14.608+01:00Not much sign of that tactical Green list vote ari...Not much sign of that tactical Green list vote arising. Maybe they should start targeting soft Labour list voters, reluctant to give ex-MPs a career lifeline?jt1https://www.blogger.com/profile/13742663983317218305noreply@blogger.com