tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2104438730078138050..comments2024-03-28T13:00:53.517+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Last night's Survation poll was better for Yes on the unrounded numbersJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-287385563309308572014-09-18T22:01:21.974+01:002014-09-18T22:01:21.974+01:00I see Kevin Maguire of the mirror has been getting...I see Kevin Maguire of the mirror has been getting told by senior No figures that No expects to win 58/42.... really?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23650687631212185982014-09-18T20:55:44.375+01:002014-09-18T20:55:44.375+01:00Close to tears reading these comments, 87% turnout...Close to tears reading these comments, 87% turnout in my village. I went round last night with my wife of 1 year,who had never done anything. Suddenly she had the bug that I have had for years.<br /><br />Still an hour to go and still people coming and going. Met salmond earlier for a photo, in inverurie,which is very no,but you wouldnt think it.<br /><br />Am I dreaming?chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62515293269318114312014-09-18T19:24:14.152+01:002014-09-18T19:24:14.152+01:00Anonymous 6:50pm
Well these days Moray is a bit l...Anonymous 6:50pm<br /><br />Well these days Moray is a bit like Galloway in that there is a high number of English people now living here - ex-RAF who have stayed on.<br />Frankly I don't know which way Moray will go - obviously hoping for a big Yes vote but would settle for 50/50.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22644320774657983962014-09-18T19:07:52.716+01:002014-09-18T19:07:52.716+01:00@xabi, I am only relaying what I found. The twitte...@xabi, I am only relaying what I found. The twitter account is from the Mayor of Limerick, IRL. <br /><br />My guess, is one a walkback, but second the sample could be very distorted.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54789715987890361282014-09-18T19:05:18.088+01:002014-09-18T19:05:18.088+01:00@George
Why? IpsosMORI has actually predicted a h...@George<br /><br />Why? IpsosMORI has actually predicted a higher turnout.Xabinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15945539127700407802014-09-18T18:57:01.557+01:002014-09-18T18:57:01.557+01:00@All......
The pollsters are now taking a walkbac...@All......<br /><br />The pollsters are now taking a walkback.....<br /><br />"<br />Diarmuid Scully @dscullylimerick<br /><br />IPSOS MORI confirm that their opinion polls are no longer valid if turnout in Scotland hits 80% I suspect these extra voters will go for Yes"Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36744013271809681562014-09-18T18:53:59.534+01:002014-09-18T18:53:59.534+01:00I've just remembered that I took part in a Pop...I've just remembered that I took part in a Populus poll about 18 months ago, so they would know I was from Scotland.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69087619833272050492014-09-18T18:51:08.760+01:002014-09-18T18:51:08.760+01:00It wasn't UK wide. They asked what area of Sco...It wasn't UK wide. They asked what area of Scotland I was in, and read out a list of areas to choose from.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65784039430943804252014-09-18T18:50:43.788+01:002014-09-18T18:50:43.788+01:00As I said here earlier knowing the election result...As I said here earlier knowing the election result is worth millions if you know what to do with that information.<br /><br />These polls might not be made public, purely for select consumption and private profit.<br /><br />Great info from the Canadians, so hope they are true, but then Glasgow is expected to vote YES, question is by how much.<br /><br />I am from Galloway and believe me if we got 40% down there I'd be running out into the street cheering and ripping my shirt off like we had won the world cup, because believe me that would be seismic! That would be a YES for sure. All farmers and tories down there. SNP has core support in west of the region (Stranraer to Newton Stewartish) but not big in numbers, and lots of traditional Labour in urban east. But it is all rural, lots of retired, big percentage of English. Only in Salmond's wildest wet dream fantasies does he foresee a YES vote down in Dumfries and Galloway.<br /><br />Anyone done any analysis of what we should be looking for in those smaller areas declaring in the 1.30-2.30 range. Obviously a good majority in Moray for example, but has anyone done modelling?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5503690490305768022014-09-18T18:49:48.089+01:002014-09-18T18:49:48.089+01:00Well, Survation and ICM claim to have phoned mobil...Well, Survation and ICM claim to have phoned mobiles for their recent referendum polls. I'm slightly baffled as to how they did it, but admittedly the geographical distribution of mobile phone numbers isn't my area of expertise.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53313262761151378532014-09-18T18:48:57.191+01:002014-09-18T18:48:57.191+01:00@"Cheers, James"
I have been doing twit...@"Cheers, James"<br /><br />I have been doing twitter advanced searches, lots of voted yes traffic and its all positive happy.<br /><br />The voted no traffic, far less and they are all glum about it.<br /><br />YES supporters and voters are doing this with a warm heart looking forward into the future. There is nothing wrong with standing on your own two feet. <br /><br />I was warmed to read about the team from Canada that is working alongside Team YES. <br /><br />I also had not really known much about RICS as I have written earlier I am a "recovering political activist" from my decades in the states. <br /><br />Everyone seems to be hitting their stride right along.<br /><br />I have seen enough twitter traffic on no votes switching yes that I think there is at least a fraction of a point in that. The referendum question was WELL thought out.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35032492482126510082014-09-18T18:47:13.634+01:002014-09-18T18:47:13.634+01:00Sorry for the second comment.
Your objetion seems...Sorry for the second comment.<br /><br />Your objetion seems reasonable, James. But mobile phone?Xabinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72330739333072134982014-09-18T18:46:25.044+01:002014-09-18T18:46:25.044+01:00It sounds like a UK-wide poll.It sounds like a UK-wide poll.Xabinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22300344591748400172014-09-18T18:43:44.903+01:002014-09-18T18:43:44.903+01:00No, it wouldn't ask how you voted today if it ...No, it wouldn't ask how you voted today if it was UK-wide.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69322218422096112282014-09-18T18:41:39.838+01:002014-09-18T18:41:39.838+01:00It sounds like a UK-wide poll.It sounds like a UK-wide poll.Xabinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59208879630733357762014-09-18T18:40:41.993+01:002014-09-18T18:40:41.993+01:00Mobile phone, 5 minutes ago.Mobile phone, 5 minutes ago.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87167189250247356552014-09-18T18:39:40.044+01:002014-09-18T18:39:40.044+01:00Juteman, was that phone or online?Juteman, was that phone or online?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44154052641913378212014-09-18T18:38:49.514+01:002014-09-18T18:38:49.514+01:00Just took part in a Populus poll. Usual questions ...Just took part in a Populus poll. Usual questions on past voting history, and how I voted today.<br />There was also an interesting question. "Do I think there should be another referendum including the rest of the UK if the vote is Yes?"<br />Is someone getting worried?Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18194006968444626552014-09-18T18:33:09.210+01:002014-09-18T18:33:09.210+01:00Brilliant! Well sourced George! There are reports ...Brilliant! Well sourced George! There are reports of very high turnout in No areas such as Dumfries & Galloway...but with Yes outperforming expectations (exit chatter suggested 40% Yes). That would be nothing short of sensational given No are hoping for 70-75% in areas such as this. One big BT lie is their alleged canvas returns in the Glasgow area. RIC and local Yes groups have stormed huge chunks of Glasgow. Drive through Cathcart or Govanhill tonight (as examples) and you won't just see Yes window posters - you'll see entire windows and ledges draped in saltires and vote Yes banners. It looks sensational. If I was Blair McD or Rob Shorthouse reading this I would be very worried their media lead campaign had badly backfired. Yes shoe leather will win the day. Daring to dream now...<br /><br />Cheers<br />JamesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12839476705207888522014-09-18T18:26:21.023+01:002014-09-18T18:26:21.023+01:00The article was today, read the whole thing.The article was today, read the whole thing.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59320739563444485222014-09-18T18:12:13.052+01:002014-09-18T18:12:13.052+01:00@"Cheers, James"
I am with you!! Thats ...@"Cheers, James"<br /><br />I am with you!! Thats the spirit.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77399698359560730182014-09-18T17:51:02.975+01:002014-09-18T17:51:02.975+01:00High turnout is brilliant for Yes. Look at this w...High turnout is brilliant for Yes. Look at this way in a GE say turnout 65% Now imagine a constituency of 100 in the Tory area and 100 in the poor area In the Tory areas turnout is about 90% but in poor areas turnout is 40% Then the Tories will overwhelm the poor by 90-40 but if the Turnout is 90% then it will be a draw. That is what's happening today and if the reports of turnout are true then Yes will win.Denisenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88060835981202632892014-09-18T17:46:14.938+01:002014-09-18T17:46:14.938+01:00Can we not just dispense with these intrusive exi...Can we not just dispense with these intrusive exit polls? <br />We've had polls ad nauseum these last two days just let the people of Scotland speak at around 5-6am tomorrow morning. Theirs' is the only poll that matters.Robert, West Lothiannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68894474841737491362014-09-18T17:27:07.632+01:002014-09-18T17:27:07.632+01:00If it's a YouGov poll I don't want to see ...If it's a YouGov poll I don't want to see it!John Fnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84544750770884512932014-09-18T17:23:16.285+01:002014-09-18T17:23:16.285+01:00It's not so much that a big turnout helps No r...It's not so much that a big turnout helps No relative to the polls, rather that it makes us more likely to avoid the sort of differential turnout that could potentially damage our side. Though obviously the specifics of it are very much open to interpretation.Stoatnoreply@blogger.com