tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post2048446430745087115..comments2024-03-29T15:07:44.290+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Yes vote increases to 48% in awesome Opinium offeringJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42618688883975548582014-09-17T12:22:14.430+01:002014-09-17T12:22:14.430+01:00The weightings CHOSEN by the managers of these pol...The weightings CHOSEN by the managers of these polls is crucial to the outcome. For example, in a poll result of Y 50% N 50%, ie 500 N 500 Y, a change made in the weighting of results anywhere in the poll which removes 20 people from eg N, changes the result to 480 N and 500 Y and N 49% Y 51%.<br /><br />In DHeil today there is a piece by one of the pollsters bemoaning the fact that they might ALL be wrong due to the reasons I have stated many times before here, the most notable being the huge new non-polled population who haven't voted before, younger voters not responding to phone polls, et al. <br /><br />Turning to canvassing results, Rentoul is reporting "what someone told him". Well fuck me, that is really credible! Did he have a dog as well? It seems to me that the body language and demeanor of the two parties vav canvassing returns is revealing. YES happy NO glum. <br /><br />Also our OZZIE friend is on record as saying that YES canvassing shows 54% 46%.<br />Murdoch may not have a dog but he more credible than Rentoul's "someone told me".James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-262487026329582552014-09-16T23:23:58.395+01:002014-09-16T23:23:58.395+01:00Annon has been posting about 'Our Leader' ...Annon has been posting about 'Our Leader' on a couple of threads.<br /><br />I think it might indeed be Fifi La Bonbon?<br /><br />Or perhaps,<br /><br />Lord drunk as a newt Foulkes?<br /><br />Oh dear! You really can't answer the substantive point, can you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31802677260200386592014-09-16T23:19:56.844+01:002014-09-16T23:19:56.844+01:00Annon has been posting about 'Our Leader' ...Annon has been posting about 'Our Leader' on a couple of threads.<br /><br />I think it might indeed be Fifi La Bonbon?<br /><br />Or perhaps,<br /><br />Lord drunk as a newt Foulkes?Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25231495199048618982014-09-16T23:09:10.755+01:002014-09-16T23:09:10.755+01:00"Your leader"
Give us a break eh, you r..."Your leader"<br /><br />Give us a break eh, you really don't wanna start throwing stones in the enormous glass house that is the moral or professional credibility of the people at the top of the relative camps<br /><br />So what is the option?<br /><br />(1) The Euro - a disaster<br />(2) The Pound - your monetary policy is decided by the Bank of England in London. What sort of independence?<br />(3) A Scottish currency - if it is viable, why is it not being promised?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60332129223113993022014-09-16T23:06:57.983+01:002014-09-16T23:06:57.983+01:00The question on the ballot paper is not what curre...The question on the ballot paper is not what currency but what capital city do you wish to govern<br /><br />If you get the currency union - a big if - then your monetary policy will be decied by the Bank of England in London!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27525162776408677882014-09-16T23:03:40.602+01:002014-09-16T23:03:40.602+01:00I believe the euro has performed considerably bett...I believe the euro has performed considerably better than the nose diving pound. We will use the pound for a short period of time until our newly independent state has found it's feet. <br /><br />The question on the ballot paper is not what currency but what capital city do you wish to govern.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10418325652418041951noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76597680443674143912014-09-16T23:03:40.321+01:002014-09-16T23:03:40.321+01:00"Your leader"
Give us a break eh, you r..."Your leader"<br /><br />Give us a break eh, you really don't wanna start throwing stones in the enormous glass house that is the moral or professional credibility of the people at the top of the relative camps.Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25264196191236314212014-09-16T22:56:41.404+01:002014-09-16T22:56:41.404+01:00Anon @ 10:43 you have zero credibility on the abil...Anon @ 10:43 you have zero credibility on the ability to spell credibility. Anyway how are you tonight Kezia?<br /><br />You are so embarassed about the currency issue that you have to focus on a typo!<br /><br />The man who leads your campaign called sterling a 'millstone around Scotland's neck' now demands a sterling currency union!<br /><br />EPIC FAIL!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16752810237356671782014-09-16T22:51:38.859+01:002014-09-16T22:51:38.859+01:00Anon @ 10:43 you have zero credibility on the abil...Anon @ 10:43 you have zero credibility on the ability to spell credibility. Anyway how are you tonight Kezia?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28183122173129408292014-09-16T22:43:47.209+01:002014-09-16T22:43:47.209+01:00If you lose - and I accept that it is still in the...If you lose - and I accept that it is still in the balance - it is due to the fact that you have zero credibility on the currency.<br /><br />Your leader is a man who claimed in 1999 that sterling was a 'millstone around Scotland's neck,' and who backed the disastrous Euro, which has caused misery around Europe, but who now says with a straight face that Scotland has to adopt the pound.<br /><br />He and YES have ZERO xredibility on the currencyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87492532538740789542014-09-16T22:29:05.569+01:002014-09-16T22:29:05.569+01:00Agree that turnout will be the deciding factor
Mo...Agree that turnout will be the deciding factor<br /><br />Most of the polls are suffering from polling politically active campaigners. The holyrood intention to vote is the giveaway for this in my opinion<br /><br />SNP was 10% ahead at 50% turnout in 2011. Survation has SNP 10% ahead at a 70% turnout.<br /><br />If Survation have SNP 10% ahead at a 70% turnout what is the lead at 50%? In my opinion lower turnout will increase the SNP lead as less Labour and other voters turn out. So in effect survation are saying the SNP have massively increased their lead for Holyrood (I would expect SNP to be in front but not massively increasing)<br /><br />This gives two possibilities<br /><br />1. people are lying about voting when they didn't <br /><br />2. Survation have too many previous voter in its poll. <br /><br />If its point 1 the polls are out if its point 2 they have no idea what the non-voters will do Laukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17714048401123180942014-09-16T22:20:25.942+01:002014-09-16T22:20:25.942+01:00Nicely put GeorgeNicely put GeorgeBVB1909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5880920337258492862014-09-16T22:14:40.780+01:002014-09-16T22:14:40.780+01:00Tie. Turnout takes it now.Tie. Turnout takes it now.Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13393458531210349862014-09-16T22:11:22.513+01:002014-09-16T22:11:22.513+01:00People, you have got to stop stripping out the und...People, you have got to stop stripping out the undecideds, otherwise the numbers are NOT meaningful and will not explain what is happening.<br /><br />Survation poll, what happened in only three days?<br /><br />YES went from 42% to 44%, up 2%<br /><br />NO went from 49% to 48%, down 1%.<br /><br />DK, went from 9% to 8%, down 1%.<br /><br />So what does that tell us?<br /><br />A SEVEN PERCENT GAP was cut to FOUR PERCENT in three days!!!<br /><br />It appears that DK are breaking to YES.<br /><br />As I have been saying, its now a tie game. YES was going to lose based on polling a few months ago. Its now a tie game.<br /><br />IF everything I have read and heard about the ground game and GOTV for YES and the SNP is true, then YES will win Friday morning.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13673293376214913762014-09-16T22:08:36.453+01:002014-09-16T22:08:36.453+01:00Leak was right, then. All polls tonight agree.
I ...Leak was right, then. All polls tonight agree.<br /><br />I note the Daily Mail is calling this a 1-point swing to Yes based on their last Survation (which may be fair enough).<br /><br />However, I believe it's a 4-point swing on the last Survation chronologically, which was commissioned by BT. That looks like something of an outlier now.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33408079221117902302014-09-16T22:03:19.499+01:002014-09-16T22:03:19.499+01:00Survation has Yes on 48%Survation has Yes on 48%BVB1909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2365571295206848112014-09-16T22:03:03.502+01:002014-09-16T22:03:03.502+01:00Is I true poster don't like polling ppl that d...Is I true poster don't like polling ppl that do not have a history of voting. Excluding first time voters?Billyfifehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17230219951785626381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27051794441956576022014-09-16T21:56:50.387+01:002014-09-16T21:56:50.387+01:00A plethora of different methodologies producing ve...A plethora of different methodologies producing very similar results. Something is not quite right because only one methodolgy can be correct but they all can be wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82278583894026645312014-09-16T21:56:12.178+01:002014-09-16T21:56:12.178+01:00I'd agree George, whenever the gap between the...I'd agree George, whenever the gap between the sides is much less than the DKs, I don't see that poll as being powerful in the predictive senseScottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75648135275517361462014-09-16T21:56:05.726+01:002014-09-16T21:56:05.726+01:00"awesome Opinium offering"
You got ther..."awesome Opinium offering"<br /><br />You got there!Sunshine on Crieffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91329509532005209852014-09-16T21:56:05.141+01:002014-09-16T21:56:05.141+01:00"awesome Opinium offering"
You got ther..."awesome Opinium offering"<br /><br />You got there!Sunshine on Crieffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42101179828510433062014-09-16T21:46:14.000+01:002014-09-16T21:46:14.000+01:00IF there was a consistant pattern of polls showing...IF there was a consistant pattern of polls showing NO at 50% with undecideds then and only then would be this "over."<br /><br />Neither side has reached 50% in any poll.<br /><br />On Friday morning the pollsters will announce that the undecideds broke one way or another.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73009641705876130102014-09-16T21:40:40.662+01:002014-09-16T21:40:40.662+01:00On that ICM Poll, apples to apples is comparing Mi...On that ICM Poll, apples to apples is comparing Mid August to Mid September.<br /><br />This idea of taking out undecideds is rubbish and I say that from American political experience. Undecideds are up for grabs in particular based on GOTV.<br /><br />YES has gone from 36% to 41%, up 5%.<br /><br />NO has gone from 48% to 45%, down 3%.<br /><br />DK has gone from 16% to 14%, down 2%.<br /><br />What does that tell us so far?<br /><br />Without Operation Fear, YES would have had this in the bag already. Operation Fear stopped the bleeding of BT.<br /><br />Essentially, YES is drawing 100% of the undecideds and slowly chipping away at NO.<br /><br />I now understand the purpose of Operation Fear and that was to stop the bleeding, nothing more. Guess what it worked. But it has done nothing to gain votes for NO.<br /><br />Essentially, through GOTV or otherwise, YES needs to get 2/3 of the undecided vote. That is not insurmountable at all.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8861901367386743672014-09-16T21:36:17.104+01:002014-09-16T21:36:17.104+01:00Folks- we should be careful about using polls as a...Folks- we should be careful about using polls as a predictive tool- their errors are huge and unknowable. <br /><br />On the other hand, the actual votes counted on Thursday evening will be subject to 0% error (hopefully!)<br /><br />Be careful, look for large shifts over the past few weeks and don't worry about 1 or 2% here and there- its just noise.Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90201542938317510462014-09-16T21:35:00.285+01:002014-09-16T21:35:00.285+01:00James, I'm very concerned that people here don...James, I'm very concerned that people here don't seem to be concerned enough. <br /><br />Levels of concern are definitely now at a two week high out in the real world, but not reflected on this thread. <br /><br />Professor Poultice is contradicting what you are saying and is tweeting that currently concern is is several percentage points above previous levels of concern.<br /><br />Please reassure me, for I'm very concerned.Concernednoreply@blogger.com