tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post1896227349872925804..comments2024-03-28T21:42:43.644+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP vote surges by 11% in Kirkcaldy East by-electionJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20096306912811702792015-01-27T23:07:52.304+00:002015-01-27T23:07:52.304+00:00If the swing in the Kirkcaldy result is repeated, ...If the swing in the Kirkcaldy result is repeated, the Labour party will be left with fewer than 10 seats in Scotland, and the SNP will have over 50. If Miliband would sigh with relief at that result, he must be a bigger idiot than you've pretended to be on this thread.<br /><br />But I can at least thank you for your promise to stop trolling now. Off you pop.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6268057467084867792015-01-27T23:01:24.311+00:002015-01-27T23:01:24.311+00:00Just to clarify, the labour party retained 70% of ...Just to clarify, the labour party retained 70% of its previous level of support. If the general election is anything like that, I think Murphy and Miliband will breathe a sigh of relief and call it a win.<br /><br />Right, I'm off. I don't want you literally going "pop". Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51406921401979667422015-01-27T22:53:58.878+00:002015-01-27T22:53:58.878+00:00Stop trolling. Just stop.Stop trolling. Just stop.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79256219239528554032015-01-27T22:51:56.884+00:002015-01-27T22:51:56.884+00:00Sorry, I've Just read your latest diatribe. Pe...Sorry, I've Just read your latest diatribe. Perhaps you can answer me this - why wasn't the swing in Kirkcaldy greater than 12.8? If the labour party and SNP have essentially changed positions since 2010, labour should have received a hellish arse kicking. But they didn't. In fact, I would say their vote held up pretty well considering. Now why is that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12123959027278977172015-01-27T22:51:35.836+00:002015-01-27T22:51:35.836+00:00I've already explained that very clearly. Wil...I've already explained that very clearly. Will you FOR THE LOVE OF GOD read what I said in my second reply, and read it properly. I've already reposted it once.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84380582244740288872015-01-27T22:46:31.543+00:002015-01-27T22:46:31.543+00:00As we don't seem to be getting very far here, ...As we don't seem to be getting very far here, perhaps you can enlighten me (preferably without unpleasant accusatory or patronising language), why it is so hideously wrong to apply the same degree of change to the last general election results, aside from the obvious - which is that it's a different sort of election. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71002122246380261422015-01-27T22:43:19.347+00:002015-01-27T22:43:19.347+00:00You're damn right I'm angry, sunshine, and...You're damn right I'm angry, sunshine, and I have no intention of calming down until you stop trying to mislead people. The stunt you've attempted to pull on this thread is as cynical as any I've seen from a troll on this blog, and that's saying something.<br /><br />The remainder of your comment is just a load of distraction, bluster and waffle that has nothing whatever to do with the matter in hand. This is not an argument about swingback. This is an argument about you taking a local election result, adjusting the SNP lead downwards by TWENTY-FIVE PER CENT, and claiming that as the "real " result. Please stop evading the issue, and address that point.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9209380651789903562015-01-27T22:24:55.100+00:002015-01-27T22:24:55.100+00:00Your tone is very angry. I think you need to calm ...Your tone is very angry. I think you need to calm down just a little. All I did was to apply the same swing to the general election. That is all. I know the two elections are not directly comparable, however I put more stock in a real life election than any opinion poll - even if it is a poll for the wrong type of election.<br /><br />When the last round of local elections was held in 2012, the labour party were still dominant in the polls. Now their poll ratings have crashed through the floor, you would expect there to be a larger swing than 12.8% in Kirkcaldy - especially as the election is largely inconsequential. But what we have is a relatively small change from last time, implying the result of the GE may not be as dramatic as some suggest (possibly).<br /><br />I don't know how old you are but I remember polls in the 1990s predicting that Blair would win by 30 points. He won by twelve. I remember the democratic primaries in America in 2008 when polls would project a state for either Obama or Clinton by margins of 10% or above only for the other candidate to clinch it. There have been further polling debacles as recently as last year - with polling companies chronically overstating SNP support in the run up to the European parliament elections.<br /><br />A real life election is sometimes a better judge of the public mood than any poll. And if your polls had been correct, the swing last Thursday would have been far greater.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7801459623175581062015-01-27T13:14:02.473+00:002015-01-27T13:14:02.473+00:00"What I did was to apply the same degree of c...<i>"What I did was to apply the same degree of change"</i><br /><br />Yes, what you did is blindingly obvious. What is considerably less clear is WHY you did it. (Apart from the obvious intention to mislead.) What possible justification can there be for taking the result of a local election, adjusting the SNP lead downwards by TWENTY-FIVE PER CENT, and claiming that's the "real" result?<br /><br />Can you honestly not understand what a total nonsense this is?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6475756084817622662015-01-26T20:07:38.838+00:002015-01-26T20:07:38.838+00:00I'm well aware that the swing of 13% refers to...I'm well aware that the swing of 13% refers to the last round of local elections and not the general election. What I did was to apply the same degree of change (assuming people behave in the same way) that we saw in this election to the general election results of 2010. I realise there are pitfalls in this - but this is probably the only real life indicator we will get of public opinion, unfiltered by the various competing methodologies of the polling companies, prior to the general election. So I thought it might be worthwhile doing a prediction based on this 13% movement from labour to SNP. You don't seem too keen on this idea though. But what is wrong with acknowledging that, if this 13 pt swing is repeated in the GE itself, it will only be sufficient to overturn the labour majorities in 11 of its 41 seats?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19885657708622077932015-01-26T16:04:32.531+00:002015-01-26T16:04:32.531+00:00If you're claiming not to be a troll, please a...If you're claiming not to be a troll, please acknowledge that I factually corrected you in my second reply. Please address that correction seriously, and not in the fatuous manner that you have done so far. To refresh your memory, the correction was as follows -<br /><br /> <i>"Oh, for pity's sake. As I made abundantly clear, the baseline result for that swing was the 2012 local elections (when the SNP were 1% ahead of Labour) and not the 2010 general election (when the SNP were 22% behind). This is pretty basic stuff."</i>James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89295679257770416952015-01-26T15:12:33.556+00:002015-01-26T15:12:33.556+00:00I am not a troll. I am not being insulting, abusiv...I am not a troll. I am not being insulting, abusive or provocative. I'm just trying to have a conversation here. I've asked you why you're doing a direct comparison between general election votes and a local council by election. I think it's a reasonable query, to which you have responded with a level of bluster that would make George Galloway proud. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-508074156538351382015-01-26T15:02:11.109+00:002015-01-26T15:02:11.109+00:00Please stop trolling. In the highly unlikely even...Please stop trolling. In the highly unlikely event that you genuinely don't understand why your line of argument makes no logical sense, then you're past help - because I explained it clearly in my second reply to you. <br /><br />Either you stuck your fingers in your ears and sang "la la la la I'm not listening", or you're a troll. My money is firmly on the latter.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7350643028816135632015-01-26T14:55:17.465+00:002015-01-26T14:55:17.465+00:00I have no idea what you're going on about. You...I have no idea what you're going on about. You can only calculate a meaningful swing between two elections of the same type. You are looking at a general election and a local council by election. This makes no sense. All we know is that there has been a 13 point swing from one local council election to the next (over the same period we were led to believe that the labour vote had collapsed). If it had indeed collapsed to the extent that is being suggested, we should be seeing your 24 point swing in this local election (or perhaps even greater due to the 'free hit' nature of elections like this). But we didn't. What we saw is a relatively modest shift in public opinion and I believe polling day will bear this out. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59222147240578049852015-01-26T13:40:58.062+00:002015-01-26T13:40:58.062+00:00You're the equivalent of the little boy in the...You're the equivalent of the little boy in the playground who thumps someone, then bursts into tears and screams "Miss, he hit me!" The "you're comparing apples with oranges" line was almost exquisite in its brazenness.<br /><br />Do you HONESTLY think people are too stupid to spot the game you're playing?James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38054425322309512012015-01-26T13:22:04.791+00:002015-01-26T13:22:04.791+00:00You're comparing apples and oranges - which I ...You're comparing apples and oranges - which I suppose is inevitable when talking about two different types of election. But if you're going to do it at all then at least compare the last local election with this one, find out the associated swing, and then apply it to the results from the last general election. That is the only sensible way to do it - and even then the prediction would still come with a major health warning. <br /><br />Based on a uniform swing of 13% from the last election, like I said, that nets the SNP eleven labour seats from the last election to add to their current tally of 6. I'm assuming the tory seat in the borders is beyond their grasp and that they will win the vast majority of the lib dem seats (say 9 out of the 11). This puts them on 6 + 11 + 9 = 26 of Scotland's constituencies. In other words, the results from the by election, extrapolated, predict a result in keeping with what the betting markets are predicting. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45544611188162116082015-01-26T12:35:53.302+00:002015-01-26T12:35:53.302+00:00I can hardly think of a better definition of troll...I can hardly think of a better definition of trolling than to conflate swings from two completely different baselines, and then to accuse the person who sets you straight of (ahem) "statistical nonsense".<br /><br />You've been caught out. Move on.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15553063279258542712015-01-26T07:08:55.607+00:002015-01-26T07:08:55.607+00:00Why is it "trolling" to come on here and...Why is it "trolling" to come on here and challenge your point of view? Your use of the 2010 result as a baseline is statistical nonsense. In so far as council by elections are of any use at all for predicting general elections, you would need to compare like with like. You are cherrypicking to support a swing of 24%. When was the last time a swing like that was achieved in Britain or, indeed, anywhere in the world? The Labour landslide in 1997 - the most dramatic election result in my lifetime - was achieved on a swing of 10.3%. According to the May 2015 website, swings of 15% and above are extremely rare and very short lived when they do occur.<br /><br />I think you are setting yourself - and others - up for some major disappointment on May 8th. And setting the bar so high for your cause will only harm it. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41814475768371349362015-01-26T02:44:44.237+00:002015-01-26T02:44:44.237+00:00Just as an additional explanatory note for trolls ...Just as an additional explanatory note for trolls - if we use the 2010 general election as a baseline result, the swing from Labour to SNP in Kirkcaldy East was probably in the region of about 24% - bang in line with the Ipsos-Mori poll, and putting the SNP on course for a landslide.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67993018994056373192015-01-26T02:40:40.608+00:002015-01-26T02:40:40.608+00:00"But you yourself mentioned a swing of 13%.&q...<i>"But you yourself mentioned a swing of 13%."</i><br /><br />Oh, for pity's sake. As I made abundantly clear, the baseline result for that swing was the 2012 local elections (when the SNP were 1% ahead of Labour) and not the 2010 general election (when the SNP were 22% behind). This is pretty basic stuff.<br /><br />I read the May 2015 article when it was published. It basically reduces to "the SNP can't win these seats because they'd need a really, really big swing". The thing is, the polls are showing they're on course to get a really, really big swing.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59968519445956058982015-01-26T02:19:21.546+00:002015-01-26T02:19:21.546+00:00But you yourself mentioned a swing of 13%. I'm...But you yourself mentioned a swing of 13%. I'm not sure how a swing of 13% in a particular area can be extrapolated to a swing of double that amount in the wider country. <br /><br />11 labour seats would fall to the SNP on a uniform national swing of 13%. The figures are taken from the May 2015 article "why the SNP may struggle to win more than twenty labour seats". Google it - it's a very interesting read.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15805506268079865132015-01-26T02:04:26.417+00:002015-01-26T02:04:26.417+00:00Anyone can pluck figures out of thin air, before a...Anyone can pluck figures out of thin air, before adding "so there's all to play for!" The Ipsos-Mori poll suggests a swing of almost double the one you mention.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72674914864220527432015-01-26T01:06:23.127+00:002015-01-26T01:06:23.127+00:00A swing of just under 13% nationally would net the...A swing of just under 13% nationally would net the SNP only 11 of labour's forty-odd seats. Not quite the bloodbath being predicted - and with 3 and a half months including a 4-6 week formal campaigning period still to play out, anything is possible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74071890110270258772015-01-23T20:11:24.780+00:002015-01-23T20:11:24.780+00:00Yeee Haaa !
I have worked out how to post in Goo...Yeee Haaa ! <br /><br />I have worked out how to post in Google account.<br /><br />For all you Anon trolls it is quite easy - just go to google blogger page and set it up.<br /><br />Simples.<br /><br />Hosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07962638502091728814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90976051420897723232015-01-23T19:45:53.410+00:002015-01-23T19:45:53.410+00:00I was thinking about the new labour policy of by-p...I was thinking about the new labour policy of by-passing Holyrood and devolving power to their local councillors in the cities so that they retain some control.<br /><br />I am not sure this will work as surely if the SNP wipe out a lot of their MPs and their MSPs then obviously the SNP, Greens and SSP will also wipe out most of their councillors in the local elections as well.<br /><br />Why have they not realised this yet? <br /><br />Do you think they will be able to work it out before the next local elections?<br /><br />hossAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com