tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post1803580914520823287..comments2024-03-19T11:24:27.698+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: "Shredded" by a dead sheepJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87432445444092318832015-11-18T13:04:10.527+00:002015-11-18T13:04:10.527+00:00Well, I can confirm that your zombie description h...Well, I can confirm that your zombie description has helped clear the smoke and mirrors of Kevin Vague's disengenuous distortions.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64616382069093438542015-11-18T00:32:02.048+00:002015-11-18T00:32:02.048+00:00As for the last two years, I said way back in the ...As for the last two years, I said way back in the very first blog posting that "the figures for the last couple of years will readily confess that this is not the brightest ever period for Scotland’s public finances".<br /><br />All I'm saying is that the figures should not be exaggerated by applying illogical adjustments.<br /><br />This is not sophistry, nor is it pulling the wool, and it certainly isn't bollocks.Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37085216893048715512015-11-18T00:20:40.397+00:002015-11-18T00:20:40.397+00:00The zombies were a specific case of a general prin...The zombies were a specific case of a general principle. This principle applies if the marginal tax revenue per person from the new people is less the average revenue from the existing people (quite likely) and the marginal expenditure per person from the new people is less than the average expenditure on the existing people (very likely).<br /><br />In such circumstances a 'per capita' approach would show an improvement even when the deficit has become no more affordable.<br /><br />If anything, I'm very patiently trying to remove the wool from people's eyes.Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81712864389869236802015-11-18T00:07:35.791+00:002015-11-18T00:07:35.791+00:00It's really isn't bollocks. GERS figures:...It's really isn't bollocks. GERS figures: Net Fiscal Balance for Scotland -8.4% of GDP and for UK -8.5% of GDP.<br /><br />Workings?? Ok: -8.4% - -8.5% = +0.1% relative surplus for Scotland.Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12615555180562079162015-11-17T22:13:28.644+00:002015-11-17T22:13:28.644+00:00"So what about 2009-2010? KH shows a relative..."So what about 2009-2010? KH shows a relative deficit of around £400 per person. GERS figures show a relative deficit of 0.2% of GDP which is less than £60 per person"<br /><br />KH includes this graph, the last two years don't look too healthy...<br />http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/ffa-for-dummies-methodology.html<br /><br />What's your prediction for this year?Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35346988091016803362015-11-17T22:08:46.406+00:002015-11-17T22:08:46.406+00:00"No, it shows that we can change the divisor ..."No, it shows that we can change the divisor when the affordability of the deficit has not changed"<br /><br />This is pure sophistry.<br /><br />You can't change the population without changing the affordability of the deficit. Adding 'zombies' had no useful benefit for any sort of realistic financial analysis.<br /><br />You're trying to pull the wool over people's eyes.Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65276885829514331532015-11-17T21:59:11.304+00:002015-11-17T21:59:11.304+00:00"The sum of the errors would give us the erro..."The sum of the errors would give us the error in any estimate of Scotland's hypothetical total debt"<br /><br />Only if we maintained _exactly_ the same finances that we would have as part of the union, which we won't.<br /><br />The only thing it can tell us is the position at the potential point of separation.<br /><br />"On the other hand, no you cannot say that the deficit for 2010-11 would have been £7 billion. There was a small surplus relative to the position of the UK as a whole."<br /><br />Bollocks. Workings?Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79060769344543441742015-11-16T18:03:12.021+00:002015-11-16T18:03:12.021+00:00I said this would get interesting below...
If KH ...I said this would get interesting below...<br /><br />If KH had used the normal GPS methodoligy and converted directly into per person values,...and purely for fun at his expense.... How many real live scots would he have to assume to become non influencial but income earning zombies for the year? ...i.e. just turn brain dead... to skew the deficit figure from £60 to £400 per person.<br /><br />In other words, what is his zombie rating of accuracy? 100K zombies, 250K 1million?<br /><br /><br />I like this version of zombie assumption better than the invasion. <br /><br />How many financial zombies will Scottish independence create? Kevin Hagues public need to KNOW!!!<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19910382992948163862015-11-16T17:03:13.144+00:002015-11-16T17:03:13.144+00:00Anonymous:
Some years are more skewed than others...Anonymous:<br /><br />Some years are more skewed than others. I've described 2010-11 differences in the original post. <br /><br />So what about 2009-2010? KH shows a relative deficit of around £400 per person. GERS figures show a relative deficit of 0.2% of GDP which is less than £60 per person.<br /><br />Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46234575037470027892015-11-16T15:38:47.527+00:002015-11-16T15:38:47.527+00:00No, it shows that we can change the divisor when t...No, it shows that we can change the divisor when the affordability of the deficit has not changed.<br /><br />If the divisor is GDP, we can't increase the divisor without the deficit becoming truly more affordable.Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60633039862615262422015-11-16T15:16:23.384+00:002015-11-16T15:16:23.384+00:00I do take your point on summing the errors. It is...I do take your point on summing the errors. It is not totally irrelevant though. The sum of the errors would give us the error in any estimate of Scotland's hypothetical total debt. But, yes, it would be better to discuss it in annual terms.<br /><br />On the other hand, no you cannot say that the deficit for 2010-11 would have been £7 billion. There was a small surplus relative to the position of the UK as a whole.Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66044743984388312732015-11-16T13:16:05.810+00:002015-11-16T13:16:05.810+00:00really???
..You really dont know do you? And KH ...really???<br /><br />..You really dont know do you? And KH didnt know either?<br /><br />This WILL get interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31195005238912439872015-11-15T12:08:14.092+00:002015-11-15T12:08:14.092+00:00"The zombie stress test was a give away"..."The zombie stress test was a give away"<br /><br />What, that if you divide a number by a bigger number than before you get a smaller result? That's all it's showing.<br />Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80329201460304079792015-11-15T12:06:39.113+00:002015-11-15T12:06:39.113+00:00It's like saying a speedometer that's X% o...It's like saying a speedometer that's X% out is 'wrong' because if you add up all the deltas it's been out over the last hour it adds to a big number.<br /><br />What's the motivation to do this? <br /><br />It serves no purpose (unless you're trying to pull the wool over people's eyes).<br /><br />"close to £1 billion error in 2010-11"<br /><br />So we can say the deficit would have been >> £7 Billion?Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42848215544348107662015-11-14T17:52:42.727+00:002015-11-14T17:52:42.727+00:00Andrew,
I get the idea that you know your stuff.....Andrew,<br /><br />I get the idea that you know your stuff....must be the northern air! The zombie stress test was a give away...and the dead sheep! ......Hague and companies lack of recognition of what these actually were does highlight he is a self taught amateur with an obvious agenda.<br /> <br />SO...Can I ask how skewed statistically is Kevin Hague's stuff?<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37838443692339684472015-11-14T12:24:19.197+00:002015-11-14T12:24:19.197+00:00It's hardly disingenuous if it's what I ex...It's hardly disingenuous if it's what I explicitly said in the original post. I also gave a figure for an individual year - close to £1 billion error in 2010-11.<br /><br />Yes, the deficit/surplus we would start with is the key point. To even start forecasting that we must be using the correct methodology.<br /><br />Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28158503391038111322015-11-14T10:21:41.221+00:002015-11-14T10:21:41.221+00:00"difference over the period"
Are you su..."difference over the period"<br /><br />Are you summing the difference over the period?<br /><br />If so, why? It's a very dis-ingenious thing to do.<br /><br />The only thing that matters is the deficit that we would start with _at_any_point_in_time_ if Scotland became independent. <br />Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64596505116246684472015-11-14T00:58:18.173+00:002015-11-14T00:58:18.173+00:00Even his latest calculations show that the differe...Even his latest calculations show that the difference over the period is several billion pounds. And that's after making a fairly heroic assumption.<br /><br />My points were about errors in methodology. They still stand. Once we're all agreed on that we can move on to what conclusions we might reach. <br /><br />Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85161774800733524562015-11-13T20:25:47.096+00:002015-11-13T20:25:47.096+00:00"the differences add to many billions of poun..."the differences add to many billions of pounds"<br /><br />Have you read Hague's latest addendum. <br /><br />It appears that the differences are now ~ 0.2 £Billion.<br /><br />So it's still something more than £8 Billion less to spend.<br /><br />Do you agree?<br />Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91224054030726951692015-11-13T16:42:14.146+00:002015-11-13T16:42:14.146+00:00You can call it 'nit picking'. I see it a...You can call it 'nit picking'. I see it as highlighting clear logical flaws in a body of work that seems to be gaining an uncritical media fan base. As I've said, the differences add to many billions of pounds.<br />Andrew Morrisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17041383963187115792015-11-13T15:09:08.167+00:002015-11-13T15:09:08.167+00:00'nit picking'. Bloody phone.'nit picking'. Bloody phone. Nialnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75895867408052977432015-11-13T15:08:05.591+00:002015-11-13T15:08:05.591+00:00In your Snow White analogy you are not picking on ...In your Snow White analogy you are not picking on whether she would be £7 or £8 pounds worse off if she leaves the group. <br /><br />You have confirmed but are ignoring the big picture, that she will have at least £7 less to spend if she leaves the group Nialnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61012514208063238192015-11-13T08:38:34.577+00:002015-11-13T08:38:34.577+00:00James - when exactly did I say that the oil price ...James - when exactly did I say that the oil price was fixed? I always us ethe futures price as a guide. I guess if you have to make up your facts you would agree with Andrew. <br /><br />http://bit.ly/LIVEShred2Neil Lovatthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01850168753314706369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-92004616896742495802015-11-13T08:36:21.592+00:002015-11-13T08:36:21.592+00:00It really doesn't Andrew, trouble is you reall...It really doesn't Andrew, trouble is you really dont understand but this post confirmed it beyond all doubt. <br />http://bit.ly/LIVEShred2Neil Lovatthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01850168753314706369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-182955880945787392015-11-12T22:38:50.957+00:002015-11-12T22:38:50.957+00:00Explain the errors.Explain the errors.Glasgow Working Classnoreply@blogger.com