tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post1451097114441242148..comments2024-03-28T19:50:04.345+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Sensational poll suggests SNP would make sweeping GAINS in an early Westminster electionJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35174786872631085132017-09-19T16:14:47.312+01:002017-09-19T16:14:47.312+01:00Presumably one or more of the GWC2s are different ...Presumably one or more of the GWC2s are different but I have no idea which is which any more /\(Oo)/\...<br /><br />....or it is all the same person having a glorious melt down. HandandShrimpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77263034206765668842017-09-19T12:21:21.243+01:002017-09-19T12:21:21.243+01:00Im a short fat balding englishman like youIm a short fat balding englishman like youGWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72893996320035378592017-09-19T10:34:44.743+01:002017-09-19T10:34:44.743+01:00I agree with that impersonator but what goes on in...I agree with that impersonator but what goes on in your mind that you have to impersonate...Are you a nat zii coward? You seem to be on the ball everytime I post...Wash your jammy bottoms.GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50724912180804245812017-09-19T10:06:05.718+01:002017-09-19T10:06:05.718+01:00Nat sis cowards Nickerless should call the referen...Nat sis cowards Nickerless should call the referendum nowGWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88634881614262664502017-09-19T09:43:45.596+01:002017-09-19T09:43:45.596+01:00You should worry about yourself impersonator.. .pe...You should worry about yourself impersonator.. .perhaps you could explain why you impersonate...?GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47359457986420150542017-09-19T06:13:26.957+01:002017-09-19T06:13:26.957+01:00I'm worried the less astute of your Nat sis Bh...I'm worried the less astute of your Nat sis Bhoys might think its me being a bigot.GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41466863549604650122017-09-18T23:31:47.811+01:002017-09-18T23:31:47.811+01:00James, surprised you allow the GWC2 impersonator t...James, surprised you allow the GWC2 impersonator to make sectarian comments. FTP is clearly recognised as sectarian...Not that I care but it is your blog.GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64103016714184532792017-09-18T21:56:06.850+01:002017-09-18T21:56:06.850+01:00I'm doing the corbyn bouncy bouncy WATP FTP GS...I'm doing the corbyn bouncy bouncy WATP FTP GSTQGWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76299310226960246322017-09-18T21:03:01.484+01:002017-09-18T21:03:01.484+01:00I was in the house on 18 September 2014 and went t...I was in the house on 18 September 2014 and went tae bed early knowing it would be a glorious victory for the Union. Next day I went tae George Sq tae celebrate but the Square was occupied by sad disgruntled nas si fash who were intent in causing trouble knowing Unionists would be descending on the Square to celebrate. They got their trouble!GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17300944691829701352017-09-18T18:28:08.694+01:002017-09-18T18:28:08.694+01:00Bungo Pony, better than living in the twelfth cent...Bungo Pony, better than living in the twelfth century.GWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61413904429143823412017-09-18T13:50:51.163+01:002017-09-18T13:50:51.163+01:00So what? That's what weighting is there for.So what? That's what weighting is there for.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29236311032876587122017-09-18T13:42:30.793+01:002017-09-18T13:42:30.793+01:00Both polls have an SNP recall of more than 42% whi...Both polls have an SNP recall of more than 42% which is way above the 37% that actually polled on June 8th. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84615435894448393412017-09-18T13:26:38.888+01:002017-09-18T13:26:38.888+01:00"One local council poll..." How many lo..."One local council poll..." How many local council polls were there? I can only think of a couple. Even at the time it was obvious they were wrong (and I said so) because they didn't take account of independent candidates. If there's any equivalent problem in this poll, it's the 2% for the Greens (so if anything the SNP may be a smidgeon too low).James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86404635876989220022017-09-18T13:09:46.847+01:002017-09-18T13:09:46.847+01:00"Should" correct for it, yes. But there ..."Should" correct for it, yes. But there was presumably a similar correction after the Holyrood election but the polls were still out in the two elections held this year. One local council poll had the SNP way up at around 47-49%. I think they ended up on 32%. Then a month later the polls failed to accurately predict the GE. That's fail, fail and then fail. I suppose by the law of averages they need to get it right at some point. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79211866688824793432017-09-18T11:04:05.313+01:002017-09-18T11:04:05.313+01:00As pointed out in the blogpost, overestimation of ...As pointed out in the blogpost, overestimation of the SNP is not "more likely than not", because weighting by 2017 recalled vote has been introduced, which should correct for the error in the election this year.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69414742475735846122017-09-18T10:33:46.335+01:002017-09-18T10:33:46.335+01:00It's exactly 3 years since the big day. Where ...It's exactly 3 years since the big day. Where were you on 18th September 2014? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19474823338142249392017-09-18T02:52:28.285+01:002017-09-18T02:52:28.285+01:00That's a lovely thought, can you elaborate a b...That's a lovely thought, can you elaborate a bit on that? Al Skinnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00131219905689635124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40816534502422367742017-09-18T01:39:35.218+01:002017-09-18T01:39:35.218+01:00My pal Gove said we would get loads and loads of p...My pal Gove said we would get loads and loads of packets of smarties and I love himGWC2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29992935205266330402017-09-18T01:23:32.414+01:002017-09-18T01:23:32.414+01:00I would disagree that there have been no important...I would disagree that there have been no important political events. The continued chaos of the UK Conservative Party handling of Brexit, internal divisions within the Conservatives (not to mention Ruth's problem with racist wingnuts), Kezia's resignation and confusion as to where Labour are heading next will all have had an impact. <br /><br />However with no planned elections for 4 years it is perhaps all academic at this stage. A lot can happen in 4 years. HandandShrimpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80204459088505476212017-09-18T00:58:03.886+01:002017-09-18T00:58:03.886+01:00Overestimation of SNP support is more likely than ...Overestimation of SNP support is more likely than not based on recent trends and also the fact that no important political events have happened in the last few months to drive an SNP surge. <br /><br />In 2011, the polls detected an upwards swing in SNP support towards the end of the campaign. They didn't underestimate SNP support, they recorded a change in public opinion in favour of the SNP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34867216548971391032017-09-18T00:48:33.921+01:002017-09-18T00:48:33.921+01:00I never said you should assume its accurate. Nothi...I never said you should assume its accurate. Nothing you've said disproves any of my post. Maybe the poll over-estimates SNP support, but, then again, maybe it doesn't. We just don't know.<br /><br />Me Bungo PonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9862997851702258312017-09-18T00:31:31.547+01:002017-09-18T00:31:31.547+01:00Holyrood 2016, the 2017 local elections and the 20...Holyrood 2016, the 2017 local elections and the 2017 General Election all saw the SNP being pushed back, despite polling that suggested they would do much better. We should have a majority SNP government by now, 45 to 55 SNP MPs and Glasgow City Council should be under single party SNP control. None of it happened. Instead we had repeated failures of polling that failed to improve the next time out even with the knowledge of the previous failure. So why should we assume that this poll is accurate?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-29183692914577150352017-09-18T00:20:21.387+01:002017-09-18T00:20:21.387+01:00Yes, you are right in your assertion that it is el...Yes, you are right in your assertion that it is election results that matter, not polls.<br /><br />However, your subsequent claim about SNP performance is, at best, unreliable. In the recent past, polls have under estimated the SNP vote. Such as the 2011 Holyrood election when Labour were measuring the curtains in Bute House only to lose heavily in the actual vote.<br /><br />You are making the mistake of assuming the future will always mirror the past.<br /><br />Me Bungo PonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83793594489896019952017-09-17T23:51:03.658+01:002017-09-17T23:51:03.658+01:00There are polls and there are real world election ...There are polls and there are real world election results - and a divergence between the two has emerged in Scotland since the Holyrood vote last year. The polls say the SNP is roaring ahead but real elections see them in decline and getting pushed back. The polls don't matter, the real world elections do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66582212219263023522017-09-17T23:36:23.687+01:002017-09-17T23:36:23.687+01:00Within the EU, the decision to cede or repatriate ...Within the EU, the decision to cede or repatriate those powers would be Scotland's alone.<br /><br />Within the UK, the decision to "grant" or "take back" those powers are Westminster's alone with Scotland having no say.<br /><br />So yes, it is independence in the 21st century. As opposed to being smothered in an increasingly 19th/18th century UK.<br /><br />Me Bungo PonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com