tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post1413262409063827083..comments2024-03-29T11:42:10.238+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: OK, London broadcasters, so tell us : just what WOULD be enough for a Jock party to get into your debates?James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65276104040539321482014-10-19T11:40:16.906+01:002014-10-19T11:40:16.906+01:00Thanks for clarifying that, James. I thought it lo...Thanks for clarifying that, James. I thought it looked seriously dodgy.<br /><br />It seems to me that the best argument would be, from an SNP perspective, to say that Labour may well 'win' the election but, based on polls, they have little chance of sustaining themselves in government in the face of a right wing majority.<br /><br />If Inverness ever voted UKIP then I'd have to start telling fibs about where I was born, but thankfully those figures have to be nonsense. For all the talk of Glasgow and Dundee being the Yes cities, it looks like Inverness voted Yes too.Philiphttps://twitter.com/PhilipThomas_45noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47288535254916045342014-10-19T03:17:51.232+01:002014-10-19T03:17:51.232+01:00To give an example of the stupidity of using Unifo...To give an example of the stupidity of using Uniform National Swing, I pumped tonight's ComRes figures into Electoral Calculus, and discovered to my surprise that UKIP can look forward to gaining Inverness, Gordon, Aberdeenshire West and Argyll & Bute!James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36196079991143409382014-10-19T03:14:33.779+01:002014-10-19T03:14:33.779+01:00Philip, the UK Polling Report seats projection is ...Philip, the UK Polling Report seats projection is based on Uniform National Swing, which is hopeless. I'm not even convinced that he factors in the SNP's improved showing on a GB-wide basis (and that wouldn't be anything like sufficient to take account of the current surge) - he just seems to assume that "minor parties" like the SNP will remain unchanged from 2010, and instead calculates the effect of swings between the three "main" parties.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12438982552875107112014-10-17T23:22:59.451+01:002014-10-17T23:22:59.451+01:00Philip, if by "block the debates entirely&quo...Philip, if by "block the debates entirely" you mean prevent them from taking place or being broadcast in England and Wales, that wouldn't be the aim. Blocking them in Scotland might be a last resort objective (as it was last time), and if there was a court order to that effect the broadcasters would just have to take every reasonable step. When an interview with John Major was blocked in Scotland in 1995, the BBC also had to withdraw it in some northern parts of England to prevent the signal reaching Scotland.<br /><br />More constructively, the real aim of legal action would be to gain some form of inclusion in at least one of the main debates, or failing that to get some dedicated prime-time coverage to repair the imbalance (the Scottish debates can't do the trick because the already grossly over-represented London parties will be present in those as well).<br /><br />Whatever the outcome, there's no way the SNP will boycott the Scottish debates altogether, although you might remember that they put forward Angus Robertson rather than Alex Salmond for the first one in 2010.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47405213629684055492014-10-17T21:44:43.811+01:002014-10-17T21:44:43.811+01:00I'm not sure what the best way to play this wi...I'm not sure what the best way to play this will be to be honest.<br /><br />A broadcast ban in Scotland wouldn't do much in my view. You can switch regions for BBC1 on iPlayer, for example, and as far as I recall watching ITVplayer doesn't switch you to STV if your IP is in Scotland. With the Virgin package in my place you also have the different regions on separate channels. I don't watch much TV (my brother sorted that out) so I'm not that clued up on the different services but I assume you can do that with most other pay services and even Freeview? <br /><br />So I imagine the purpose of any legal action would be to try to block the debates entirely unless we were invited or we'd just be blowing hot air.<br /><br />If the Scottish debates go ahead then should the SNP refuse take part? I don't think that will reflect well with a lot of those we're trying to attract, even if it seems like the 'right' thing to do. When I take my indignant hat off I can see that. <br /><br />We could refuse to put Nicola in and put in whoever the new deputy will be, or put in one of our WM contingent arguing that it's a WM election and none of the Holyrood leaders have a chance of being a WM MP - you could possibly work that angle and obviously it plays on the BBC's argument that Nicola isn't running as a possible PM but it would be tricky to put that case properly too. I suspect that we'll suck it up in the end (as we always do) since we understandably don't want to portray ourselves as a protest party. As much as it annoys me, I think that, ultimately, that will be our safest card given the tools at our disposal at this time - it remains to be seen how much exposure the 'new media' can gain without a terrestrial broadcast license - and I'd have to support it. The SNP can't hurt the BBC, only license fee payers can...Philiphttps://twitter.com/PhilipThomas_45noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86760705120041903112014-10-17T10:28:09.451+01:002014-10-17T10:28:09.451+01:00I saw a tweet that said something along these line...I saw a tweet that said something along these lines:<br /><br /><i>If we are to have English votes for English laws, then surely we should have English nuclear weapons for English people?</i>Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26394494158676255922014-10-17T10:27:07.724+01:002014-10-17T10:27:07.724+01:00TNS poll in the Herald.
Voters trust Sturgeon the...TNS poll in the Herald.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/voters-trust-sturgeon-the-most-to-deliver-new-powers.25616595" rel="nofollow"><b>Voters trust Sturgeon the most to deliver new powers</b></a><br /><br /><i>MORE Scots trust the SNP and its leader-elect Nicola Sturgeon to deliver extra powers to Scotland than any other party or politician, despite the Yes campaign losing the independence referendum, a survey has found.<br /><br />The research by pollsters TNS suggests the First Minister-in-waiting is poised to inherit a strong legacy of trust when she takes charge of the Nationalists next month.<br /><br />But the survey of almost 1,000 people who were eligible to vote in last month's referendum poll delivered a sombre message for the main UK parties, in whom there is little trust to deliver their pledge of enhanced powers for Holyrood...</i>Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90717165089170508792014-10-17T10:05:26.306+01:002014-10-17T10:05:26.306+01:00Tories are ahead of Labour in the Scottish subsamp...Tories are ahead of Labour in the Scottish subsample in the Populus poll.<br /><br />SNP 35, Tories 24, Labour 21, LD 10, Greens and UKIP 4 each.<br /><br />http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_17-10-2014_BPC.pdfJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52646860562940855252014-10-17T08:55:49.352+01:002014-10-17T08:55:49.352+01:00Labour on 19% in Yougov Scottish sample this morni...Labour on 19% in Yougov Scottish sample this morning. I believe that's the lowest share they've had ever.<br /><br />Dave seen as the preferred option as a UK PM by Scots even though the Tories are hated.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-45598830367149316942014-10-17T08:40:58.516+01:002014-10-17T08:40:58.516+01:00The UK could quite easily survive as a Federalist ...The UK could quite easily survive as a Federalist country. <br /><br />They don't want to dilute power though, it's easier to control london than it is 3 other areas.<br /><br />At present none of them are competing against London, they don't have the economic weapons to do that.<br /><br />If federalism happened, they would. <br /><br />We all know London is the priority, the remembrancer in the House of Commons has that particular responsibility to see that no harm comes to the City of London.<br /><br />Would they see federalism as harming the City of London?<br /><br />Of course they would. <br /><br />To say federalism wouldn't work in the UK is nonsense though, it would work, but it'll never happen as long as London is the way it is.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68000810523812028862014-10-17T03:52:44.842+01:002014-10-17T03:52:44.842+01:00become Britain's *biggest* party. (chuckle)become Britain's *biggest* party. (chuckle)Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3040599665928986822014-10-17T01:31:48.490+01:002014-10-17T01:31:48.490+01:00I doubt very much if the Union could survive as a ...I doubt very much if the Union could survive as a (con)federal state. It's just not workable<br />See http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2014/09/25/squaring-the-circle-what-no-means/<br /><br />other people think the same<br />http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2014/09/29/th-whole-worls-in-a-terrible-state-o-chassis-good-luck-with-that/<br /><br />So English votes for English people is a problem because the scots, Welsh and Irish may never get the chance to have a PM. That's one giant red herring - <br /><br />Sinn fein doesn't even bother to attend westminster and has no interest in becoming PM.The irish in NI already have one foot out the door of the Union and will have both out as soon as they get a majority in NI.<br /> <br />Unionist parties appear to be on the way out in Scotland. The SNP MPs don't vote on English matters. The majority of scottish people seem to want Devo max, with 45% wanting independence. i suggest their ambitions are directed elsewhere. <br />The Welsh are clamouring for Devo max like the scots<br />http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/welsh-assembly-leaders-back-fast-track-7940186? so I imagine their energies would also be directed elsewhere.<br />The evidence all points to very few, if any, politicians in Scotland, Wales and NI actually wanting to be PM outside of their own countries.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46113617974891868402014-10-17T01:15:39.192+01:002014-10-17T01:15:39.192+01:00Muttley, I agree that the precise increase in the ...Muttley, I agree that the precise increase in the SNP membership doesn't really matter -- unless we become Britain's party. At which point it matters a whole lot in PR and hence leverage terms domestically and internationally, and also morale-wise -- great for us, not so great for Lamont and Murphy. <br /><br />And 150000 isn't going to happen without a concerted campaign. But plans are afoot. I'll keep you posted. Sean McNultyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17417132693074694333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8211646146244450532014-10-16T23:22:15.760+01:002014-10-16T23:22:15.760+01:00@ James
I'm not saying that any de facto (if ...@ James<br /><br />I'm not saying that any <i>de facto (if not written) rule</i> currently exists. I'm saying that such a convention might become tempting, especially to English voters, if EVEL is ever introduced. Of course this would be <i>absurd and anti-democratic</i>. My whole point is many existing UK constitutional practices are absurd and anti-democratic, and there is a danger this could get worse.<br /><br />The comparison with the USA is irrelevant. The USA has a federal system and no party currently has properly developed plans to introduce federalism in the UK, not even the Lib Dems. As I said above, systems of symmetric devolution, like federalism, can be fully democratic. But asymmetric devolution can't because it fails the basic test of giving all citizens an equal voice and all votes an equal value.<br /><br />For the record, I can see real see real advantages in a confederal UK where each constituent nation has constitutionally entrenched sovereignty. But no UK party is currently offering this.Dennis Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533079746508505314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76853277079028578172014-10-16T22:49:23.714+01:002014-10-16T22:49:23.714+01:00This suggestion of a de facto (if not written) rul...This suggestion of a de facto (if not written) rule preventing people from Scotland (and possibly Wales) from becoming PM, Chancellor, etc is absurd and anti-democratic. <br /><br />Imagine a conversation with an American and telling them that the situation of Scotland was the equivalent of (say) people from Alaska being barred from the Presidency, or other federal positions. Most foreigners would think that was legitimate grounds for pursuing independence. <br /><br />Brown often accused the SNP of wanting to create a "colonial" relationship between an independent Scotland and rUK in respect of the proposed currency union. Well, having a scenario where only English representatives are allowed to be the PM of the UK would appear to be the definition of colonialism to me.<br /><br />As Vernon Bogdanor put it a few weeks ago, asymmetry is the price that England has to pay for Union (and they weren't willing to do this for Ireland). In any union or federation there has to be some "unfair" representation given to smaller populations to prevent majoritarianism. For example, each state in the US has two senators, whether they have less than 1 million people (Delaware, Wyoming) or tens of millions (California, Texas).Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64962534527254218072014-10-16T21:43:55.763+01:002014-10-16T21:43:55.763+01:00@ Anonymous
In policy terms I completely agree. ...@ Anonymous<br /><br />In policy terms I completely agree. I wouldn't wish a Northern Ireland Prime Minister on anyone. But there is an issue of democratic legitimacy here. Why should Northern Ireland voters be denied the opportunity of voting for an MP who could theoretically become the Prime Minister of the state of which they are citizens? Let's bear in mind that Scotland and Wales could be moving in the same direction. I don't often agree with Gordon Brown but he may have a case in arguing that the implementation of English Votes for English Laws could potentially disqualify any MP from Scotland and Wales from becoming Prime Minister.Dennis Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533079746508505314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2235485692286954662014-10-16T20:58:24.360+01:002014-10-16T20:58:24.360+01:00dennis Smith " why is a PM from Northern Irel...dennis Smith " why is a PM from Northern Ireland so unimaginable?"<br /><br />Pul-eeze ! The Loyalist DUP, largest party in NI represents up to 48% of NI people - they do not support abortion, blood donations from homosexuals, and believe the world was formed 4,000 years ago. they spend their time refusing to take part in talks and negotiations with other parties, annoying envoys from the US, trying to ban plays, marching with the orange order and taking orders from them etc You can read all about them and the orange order on eurofree3.wordpress.com<br /> I would not wish them as PM on my worst enemy. God save England and the UK if that ever happens!.<br />Sinn Fein representing most nationalists/republicans (up to 46% of the NI population) has an abstentionist policy - they do not take their seats in Westminster (ever hear of Bobby Sands MP?). Maybe an abstentionist PM would be the best choice for westminster?<br />the other NI parties(nationalist, greens, unionist, UKIP ) are very small and are not linked to the Cons, lab or Lib-dems. What about the leader of a minority party in a minority region with hardly any votes as PM? Surely the UK could do better than that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70835013406721148142014-10-16T18:42:36.384+01:002014-10-16T18:42:36.384+01:00Anon : You're really not listening, are you? ...Anon : You're really not listening, are you? Did you even get past the title?James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76082812815402764752014-10-16T18:33:14.373+01:002014-10-16T18:33:14.373+01:00
SNP and Plaid can never hope to win enough seats ...<br />SNP and Plaid can never hope to win enough seats to form an overall majority.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73481004332369674642014-10-16T16:08:27.879+01:002014-10-16T16:08:27.879+01:00why is everyone so hooked on lazy US style debates...why is everyone so hooked on lazy US style debates centralising debates via gatekeepers who decided as to who is and who isn't eligible to be controlled by them?<br />Something I'm not getti9ng here, were has all the spinal fluids gone, can't we have a historically more adult discourse? I just got used to the genetically imprinted party political landscape nobody can be without, seemingly, what's next a two party political system? Is that what the aim is? trying to adopt the donkeys and elephants, but getting the owls.... what a debate....nevermindnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63966768805907598552014-10-16T13:00:21.996+01:002014-10-16T13:00:21.996+01:00I had to take an oath of allegiance to the Queen w...I had to take an oath of allegiance to the Queen when I became a citizen of Canada. I almost choked! I had never taking such an oath when living in Scotland. I took it in good faith because I was not taking an oath to the Queen as a person, or to the monarchy (I't not like the Nazi oath of allegiance to Hitler), but to the head of state and her heirs. When Canada or Scotland becomes a Republic we will be keeping the oath to the Head of State and her heirs because the President of the Republic will be her legitimate heir (The meaning of "heirs of her body" is "legitimate").Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15054543082104209150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2402426043210114152014-10-16T11:56:31.788+01:002014-10-16T11:56:31.788+01:00@James
I disagree I think David Cameron would pre...@James<br /><br />I disagree I think David Cameron would pretty much destroy him. Miliband is a whimpering fool who cannot think on his feet. As Skier says, the EVEL issue is one which would be picked up by the media. We saw in the referendum how the media pick one issue from the debates and go big on it. <br /><br />Throw in the other 2 against him and he'd be completely out of his depth and that really is saying something. Labours best hope to avoid a total defeat in 2015 is to batten down the doors and not make any sudden movements. <br /><br />They are goosed, in Scotland and in the North of England.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66183648024959505972014-10-16T11:39:42.953+01:002014-10-16T11:39:42.953+01:00(Continued)
The SNP participates in Westminster p...(Continued)<br /><br />The SNP participates in Westminster politics for pragmatic reasons, basically because it has no alternative. But its participation is contingent and conditional because it rejects both the assumption of a UK <i>demos</i> and the Westminster doctrine of the absolute sovereignty of Parliament. The latter is another crucial marker of Scottish difference. Scottish constitutional law is vague and poorly developed: it virtually came to a halt in 1707. But there are at least vestiges of a tradition, dating back to George Buchanan and maybe even the Declaration of Arbroath, that sovereignty is vested in the people rather than the crown and that monarchical powers are limited rather than absolute. Though sidelined, Scottish constitutional law has never been extinguished. This is the force of Lord Cooper’s famous obiter dictum in MacCormick v the Lord Advocate in 1953. These two separate lines of argument, a specifically Scottish legal tradition and a general argument from democratic principle, both favour a doctrine of popular as against parliamentary sovereignty.<br /><br />I think this helps to explain the SNP policy of limited engagement with Westminster, abstaining on principle in England-only votes. (I should maybe say that I am not an SNP member, so I am interpreting party policy from the outside.) This is another reason why the idea of an SNP Prime Minister is so problematic. When so much parliamentary business relates only to England an SNP Prime Minister would be obliged to abstain on many of the bills promoted by his/her own government.<br /><br />The doctrines of popular sovereignty and limited monarchy are relevant to the oath issue that I mentioned earlier. They do not commit their adherents to republicanism but they do commit them to rejecting any doctrine of absolute parliamentary sovereignty. On these grounds the monarch appears as a kind of hereditary president for life. There are always ways of equivocating, but I don’t see how a principled SNP Prime Minister could accept the standard Westminster interpretation.<br /><br />Finally (at last) I don’t think your East German analogy works. The German Democratic Republic functioned as a (not really democratic) state but there was never an East German people or <i>demos</i>. The GDR was a historical accident, created when the Allies divided Germany into four zones in1945, then frozen when the USSR fell out with the others. In liquidating the GDR its government were just returning the German people to an earlier, more legitimate status.<br /><br />Apologies for the length of this but I was obviously not making myself clear when I tried to keep things brief.<br />Dennis Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533079746508505314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40851287886173159552014-10-16T11:36:25.815+01:002014-10-16T11:36:25.815+01:00James – apologies for the delayed reply. You have...James – apologies for the delayed reply. You have to sleep sometime and this post then turned out to be too long for Blogger. I'll try to break it into two or more bits.<br /><br />I’ll try to explain, starting from first principles, why I think the SNP is a different kind of party from the unionist parties and why it would be wrong in principle for an SNP MP to become Prime Minister of the UK. States and nations are things of different logical types, though they interact continuously and modify each other. States can to some extent create nations (through education, etc.) while nations can give legitimacy to states and – ideally at least – hold them to account.<br /><br />Any functioning democratic state needs its own demos - a matching nation or people. This raises the question: what is the demos of the UK state? How many peoples or nations are there in the UK? There are many varieties of Scottish nationalism, disagreeing on many issues, but there is widespread agreement that Scotland is a nation and the Scots are a people or demos. The same must be true of the English. (The idea of a demos in Northern Ireland is obviously controversial, so let’s leave Northern Ireland and Wales out of the discussion for now.) If the Scots and the English are separate peoples, I think it follows directly that there can’t be a British demos. In that sense the UK is not a conventional democracy. I think this is true for all kinds of reasons. Asymmetric devolution is a democratic abomination because it violates the basic democratic principle that every citizen should have an equal voice and all votes should have equal value.<br /><br />To be continued (I hope)Dennis Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04533079746508505314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15914538834054066752014-10-16T10:19:39.015+01:002014-10-16T10:19:39.015+01:00I am actually surprised that Labour want the debat...<i>I am actually surprised that Labour want the debates to go ahead.</i><br /><br />Aye, Dave, Nigel and even possibly Nick would slaughter Ed on the EVEL issue live on TV. Ed is anti-democratic, anti-Scottish and anti-English...Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.com