tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post1135306642515374670..comments2024-03-29T09:57:11.038+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Wisdom on Wednesday : It's this simpleJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89944344203891353632014-09-04T06:38:17.643+01:002014-09-04T06:38:17.643+01:00Just for fun and out of interest while we wait.
...Just for fun and out of interest while we wait.<br /><br /><br />Imagine you are talking to someone who doesn't have a clear idea of their national identity and feels vaguely scottish and british. You attempt to impose the forced choice and ask them to pick one. They haver and don't know.<br /><br />What arguments would you use, if any, to convince that person they should regard themselves as Scottish (rather than British, European or somne other identity).Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63854911361649889792014-09-04T03:09:54.269+01:002014-09-04T03:09:54.269+01:00This is bad, bad, bad - sleepless nights waiting f...This is bad, bad, bad - sleepless nights waiting for the next poll and prospect of cold turkey after 19 Sept. At least if No win we get to do it all over again one day. Sorry, that's getting like the Panda joke. <br /><br />But since we're reduced to sharing anecdotes - intriguingly I met 2 No voters today (yesterday now). Went into a Govan charity where the Thatcher-admiring office manager had been wavering a while back. There she was, a brilliant gallus woman, with a mischievous grin on her face and a No Thanks badge. We both burst out laughing (me with Yes badge). She'd decided she'd had too much of being urged Yes so was declaring for No. I shouldn't be revealing this story, but somehow it felt right because you just know she'd be No at the core. It felt good that our organisation could hold folks with strong views on both sides. <br /><br />Other instance was later on train to Edinburgh. Young woman sat beside me. Me, busy on computer and evidently getting too old to pay too much attention to young woman (wife, take note) eventually asked to be let out to get off at H'market. As she got up I sensed an edge and only then noticed she had a No Thanks folder. As well as my Yes badge had the Wee Blue Book amongst my papers. I just looked straight at her, tapped my badge with a huge sort of astonished smile at which she too burst out smiling and it was almost like loyalty amongst thieves: at least we both had courage of convictions. I said something about "let's keep it smiling", she nodded, and I headed off, regretting only that I'd failed to hand her the Wee Blue Book. <br /><br />Meanwhile, Wife has agreed to Yes sticker on car (for a while, I was sneaking it on when she wasn't with me). Still not allowed window (been some arson issues in the area - not indy related), but I've got this wicked plan, as the day gets closer, to stick my Yes umbrella out the window on pretext of sheltering her window boxes.<br /><br />Time to try going back to sleep, folks. Indy madness cathartically discharged. (Any sign of that poll yet?)Alastair McIntoshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02057511478889767753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14461997961301777482014-09-04T00:48:14.314+01:002014-09-04T00:48:14.314+01:00I disagree Stuart. I like the reports from the fro...I disagree Stuart. I like the reports from the frontline and the anecdotal evidence of the Yes groundswell. It keeps us occupied in between polls. I suspect there will be a flurry of polls in the next few days and I would say that it is highly likely that one of those polls will show Yes in the lead. <br /><br />Back to the anecdotes. I spoke with my one and only hardline No aquaintance today. He seemed a little disheartened to say the least, didn't want to discuss the referendum in any depth and muttered something about the country being divided. I could tell from his general attitude that he's given up hope of No vote. I almost felt sorry for him as I know how important it is to him to remain part of the UK. A No vote for him is an emotional one and I respect that. A poll putting Yes ahead could have a devastating effect on No morale if the timing is right. <br />Stickersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67414041055614906772014-09-04T00:28:08.832+01:002014-09-04T00:28:08.832+01:00Stuart, with all due respect, if you have a compla...Stuart, with all due respect, if you have a complaint, articulate it and explain it. I'm not a mindreader.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73787578911768599262014-09-04T00:11:36.892+01:002014-09-04T00:11:36.892+01:00This page is beginning to bore me, until we get an...This page is beginning to bore me, until we get another poll lets all cool down blog somewhere else then come back to the page. James get a grip please! from a Yes voter!<br />Maybolebuddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15776630416742473684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86873473533267963122014-09-03T23:58:29.874+01:002014-09-03T23:58:29.874+01:00Anon : It did make a difference - in this case (qu...Anon : It did make a difference - in this case (quite unusually) the Yes vote was actually 1% lower among definite voters, although that may have been exaggerated by the rounding.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26412757656097716442014-09-03T23:45:48.536+01:002014-09-03T23:45:48.536+01:00Kellner said on BBC 24 last night that Yougov will...Kellner said on BBC 24 last night that Yougov will issue 3 more polls before Sept 18th.alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17307986658978359972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12255249785879628182014-09-03T22:27:30.792+01:002014-09-03T22:27:30.792+01:00@ betty
That's the one I did by the sounds of...@ betty<br /><br />That's the one I did by the sounds of it.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-92093656612746707612014-09-03T22:26:52.169+01:002014-09-03T22:26:52.169+01:00YouGov figures are usually straight up. It wouldn&...YouGov figures are usually straight up. It wouldn't make much difference (if any) in this case because the intention to vote was >90%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22341560992759490182014-09-03T22:18:14.860+01:002014-09-03T22:18:14.860+01:00Anyone know if those you gov figures were weighted...Anyone know if those you gov figures were weighted for likelihood to vote?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12363479976693016493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91395619796571434122014-09-03T22:13:23.956+01:002014-09-03T22:13:23.956+01:00Hi James, just did another yougov poll. More or le...Hi James, just did another yougov poll. More or less the same as the Sun one the other day with a couple of different questions. A new fun one that I hadn't seen before was along the lines of: Probably True or Probably False: the UK Govt is concealing oil finds; M15 is working for the UK govt in the indyref; the vote will be rigged. <br /><br />I gave them all the tin foil hat answers.Betty the Firstnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64943922840672575402014-09-03T22:04:39.358+01:002014-09-03T22:04:39.358+01:00Well, there's been a lot of talk from people w...Well, there's been a lot of talk from people who've been polled by Panelbase so there's probably at least one out there. According to Severin Carrell, Yes Scotland have denied holding onto a Panelbase poll showing a Yes lead. Of course, it could be the SNP rather than Yes Scotland that has the poll, or it could show 50-50 or 49-51 which would show definite progress for the Yes side even without a lead.<br /><br />That said, I doubt we're getting anything tonight. We'd have probably heard something from Kevin Pringle on Twitter by now if a Panelbase poll was going to come out showing a Yes lead. As we get closer to the vote, speculation will most likely reach fever pitch.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78170640815883457692014-09-03T21:30:37.103+01:002014-09-03T21:30:37.103+01:00There is a lot of chatter on twitter currently abo...There is a lot of chatter on twitter currently about a Panelbase poll apparently coming out this evening. Has anyone been able to verify this, or is it just more wild speculation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73448264031937846512014-09-03T20:56:43.937+01:002014-09-03T20:56:43.937+01:00@Anon:
Labour didn't receive wall-to-wall supp...@Anon:<br />Labour didn't receive wall-to-wall support in the media in 2011. With varying degrees of enthusiasm, the SNP was endorsed by most of the broadsheets, the Sun, and I think some of the UK papers (Sunday Times, possibly?). Yes, even the Scotsman backed the SNP - in a very sullen and reluctant manner, and only in the last day or two when it was clear Labour were finished.<br /><br />I'm always wary of comparisons between that election and the referendum. We're not going to get anything like the press support that the SNP had in 2011. We <i>might</i> get the Sun, but only if they think we're going to win anyway.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37762399064037573752014-09-03T20:42:54.988+01:002014-09-03T20:42:54.988+01:00On new registrations. I was part of a group who re...On new registrations. I was part of a group who registered hundreds of new voters yesterday (400+ just in our group). We didn't ask voting intention (or reveal ours), but most people gave it away (National ID question on form was the biggest pointer, followed by direct questions to us, followed by level of enthusiasm). The new registrants who gave away their intentions were the great majority I saw, and were about 3 to 1 Yes.<br /><br />The demographics were in this order: first time Scottish born voters in their twenties, first time Scottish born voters in their teens, other Scottish born, Commonwealth nationals (20s, 30s), EU nationals (20s, 30s),Others.<br /><br />Many had low awareness of how to vote, so registration is only half the story.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7547451796018301132014-09-03T20:16:53.273+01:002014-09-03T20:16:53.273+01:00Pertinent point here folks regarding this phantom ...Pertinent point here folks regarding this phantom poll. Severin Carroll is Labour to the core. If the man told me tomorrow was Thursday I'd check a calendar to confirm. If he shook my hand, first thing I'd do is count my fingers.<br /><br />The only time this man will comment is to either a) Stir up speculation and use this to attempt to create an advantageous situation for Labour, or<br />b) Provoke counter comments and use these in an attempt to bolster/justify a position taken by Labour.<br /><br />Another of this mould is Tom Gordon of the Herald. <br /><br />Credit to some, at least Gardham, Chryton, Clegg and McNabb in the Herald/Record/Scotsman all make their intentions to assist Labour, spin for Labour and represent Labour's interests to the detriment of all else come hell or high water obvious.<br /><br />How on earth Labour were virtually wiped out in Scotland in 2011 despite wall to wall journalist and media support justifies the suggestions made in earlier comments that people obtain information from elsewhere. It has great significance to this campaign.<br /><br />Just warning you all, dealt with Carroll personally before. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59470831395567917242014-09-03T20:09:20.774+01:002014-09-03T20:09:20.774+01:00Update on the eggman he will be in court the tomor...Update on the eggman he will be in court the tomorrow so we will see what comes of the shell.cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82825655816458935722014-09-03T19:49:25.772+01:002014-09-03T19:49:25.772+01:00Awww, was speaking to a colleague this morning who...Awww, was speaking to a colleague this morning who thought the deadline for registering to vote was today. <br /><br />He was really angry when I told him that it was yesterday and he won't be able to cast his no vote now, what a pity, ahahahahaha. Blinking Hystericalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17463053738192705262014-09-03T19:45:55.912+01:002014-09-03T19:45:55.912+01:00There's a lot of talk right now about a Panelb...There's a lot of talk right now about a Panelbase poll being withheld. I've just had a thought. Isn't it possible that some private Panelbase polls may be commissioned by Better Together? I know if I was running a political campaign I would want a diversity of polling sources.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4063890543735546442014-09-03T18:53:31.302+01:002014-09-03T18:53:31.302+01:00@Anon:
Is everyone confident a high turnout is pos...@Anon:<br /><i>Is everyone confident a high turnout is positive for yes? RIC and many YES canvassers seem convinced of this.?</i><br /><br />Yeah, I've heard this, but have never really understood the reasoning. Yes supporters are more enthusiastic and likelier to vote. So if it's a low turnout, chances are it's the No voters who haven't bothered. Therefore, I'd expect a high turnout to benefit No.<br /><br />Lots of new registered voters helps Yes, though, for the same reason - people who support No are less likely to feel strongly enough about it to go to the trouble of registering.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30525236271149459852014-09-03T18:46:52.482+01:002014-09-03T18:46:52.482+01:00Andy - Fair enough. I made the mistake of deviatin...Andy - Fair enough. I made the mistake of deviating from a rule which has applied 100% of the time in this campaign: if there's below-the-line talk of an unreleased poll, and no journalist/pollster/senior campaign person has mentioned it, it doesn't exist.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83369617880405164822014-09-03T18:41:31.957+01:002014-09-03T18:41:31.957+01:00What is the consensus here about how the late rush...What is the consensus here about how the late rush of registration will affect the vote?<br /><br />There seems to have been an assumption that this is YES-positive, but voices have been raised suggesting that the number of working class voters is less than in 2012, and moreover that analysis of polls shows that those who didn't vote in 2011 are more likely to be NO voters. Given we also know from the same polls that those in the lowest socio-economic bracket seem to be moving towards yes and that undecided voters are on balance siding with YES, what are people's thoughts on turnout? <br /><br />Is everyone confident a high turnout is positive for yes? RIC and many YES canvassers seem convinced of this. Secondly, does the predicted turnout essentially invalidate all of the current polls given the samples using, or is weighting capable of coping with a turnout of over 80%?<br /><br />On an aside I was looking back recently to the 2010 general election result and the exit poll that was released by the BBC at 10pm was almost exactly right, just a couple of seats out from the actual result. Does anyone have any news of exit polls planned for the referendum? It will be the first sense of what Scotland has decided and I would imagine we will all be crossing our fingers for a YES predicted win! Recent experience suggests such polls have been highly accurate, which isn't a surprise given we are dealing with confirmed voting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85699453148570802792014-09-03T18:36:02.102+01:002014-09-03T18:36:02.102+01:00Apologies. Made the beginner's mistake of look...Apologies. Made the beginner's mistake of looking at an old poll. Excited rather than bored.Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15233254683405927152014-09-03T18:32:34.103+01:002014-09-03T18:32:34.103+01:00In fairness to Andy there is some errant chatter a...In fairness to Andy there is some errant chatter amongst commenters to Curtice's last blog about the existence of such a Panelbase poll, but all it amounts to is excited chatter and no substance.<br /><br />More polls will come soon enough, tomorrow, or the weekend is bound to see some. Just a case of patience and not getting carried away by pointless speculation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51291717945838068692014-09-03T18:26:16.407+01:002014-09-03T18:26:16.407+01:00Andy - There's no mention of a new Panelbase p...Andy - There's no mention of a new Panelbase poll at that site. The last article is about the YouGov from the other day. Why are you bothering to talk such transparent crap? I don't see that it benefits either side, so I can only assume you're just bored.keatonnoreply@blogger.com