Stonehaven REVELATION as "most accurate pollster" puts the SNP on course for an overall majority as Labour slump to FOURTH

To be clear, the bit about "most accurate pollster" is Stonehaven's own self-description, but I always put that in because it upsets our resident unionist troll KC.  

It was Stonehaven who, a few months ago, first started the trend of MRP polls showing an SNP overall majority, and I must admit I was surprised that YouGov of all companies ended up following their example.  Remember, however, that Stonehaven have stated that they factor tactical voting into their headline projections, and once again they've found that the SNP benefit more from tactical voting than any other party.  That seems intuitively implausible, so if there's any health warning to be put on these numbers, that would be it.

Seats projection (Stonehaven MRP):

SNP 66

Reform UK 21

Greens 14

Labour 13

Liberal Democrats 8

Conservatives 7

SNP: 66 seats

ALL OTHER PARTIES: 63 seats

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS

PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 80 seats

ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES 49 seats

 

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 31 SEATS

Like a lot of people, the first thing I do when I see one of these MRP projections is look at the individual constituency numbers to check if any them look obviously wrong.  In this case there are a few that leap out...

Dumbarton is projected to be an SNP gain, with Reform in a distant second place.  That seems unlikely - even if the SNP do take the seat, there will presumably still be enough tactical votes for Labour to keep them ahead of Reform at the very least.

Cunninghame South is projected to be a Reform UK gain.  It's amazing how many MRP polls seem determined that there is going to be a Reform breakthrough in Ayrshire in particular, and while that's certainly possible, I can't see why Reform would take this specific seat and fail to take any other constituency in the country, which is what Stonehaven are saying.

Edinburgh Northern is projected to be a notional SNP hold, with the Greens in second place.  It seems far more likely the race there will be between the SNP and the Liberal Democrats.

The SNP are projected to take all three seats in the southern Blue Wall, which is possible on a good day, although I certainly wouldn't bet the house on it happening.

Here are the national vote shares from the poll:

Constituency ballot:

SNP 37%

Reform UK 18%

Labour 17%

Greens 10%

Conservatives 9%

Liberal Democrats 8%

Regional list ballot:

SNP 33%

Reform UK 19%

Labour 16%

Greens 13%

Conservatives 9%

Liberal Democrats 8%

That's a wee bit odd.  The constituency-level projections seem to take account of the fact that there will be no Green candidates in most constituencies, but clearly the national vote shares do not.  So if we make a common sense adjustment based on where those Green constituency votes might really go, we could well be looking at an SNP vote in the low 40s at least.

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My latest constituency profile for The National is the Shetland Islands.  That, as it happens, is the only one of the 73 constituencies that I've never actually set foot in myself.  I've been to Na h-Eileanan an Iar once, because I spent a few days in Uist when I was 14, and I've been to Orkney three times, including as recently as two years ago.  But I've never made it as far as Shetland.  Hopefully one day.

Incidentally, I was shocked to see that the Lib Dems have apparently taken out a front-page attack ad in the Shetland Times, which attempts to monster the SNP candidate Hannah Mary Goodlad.  Either they're severely rattled or they have money to burn.

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