The Diffley difference: new poll tilts this election in the SNP's favour - and is the ELEVENTH poll in the last four months to show that Scotland would vote Yes to independence in a new referendum

Unlike our occasional commenter Declan, I'm not particularly given to punching the air upon seeing an opinion poll, but if I was ever going to do that, yesterday would have been the day.  There were only two polls last week and they effectively produced a split decision - the Find Out Now poll I commissioned for Scot Goes Pop was pretty favourable for the SNP and exceptionally favourable for the Greens, while the Survation poll was significantly less good for both parties, although at least it did still point to a pro-indy majority in the Scottish Parliament and a fifth successive term in office for the SNP.  As the Tories discovered in the 2017 general election, and as Labour discovered in 1970, there's always just a chance that the least favourable pollster will also turn out to be the most accurate.  So the only way we could really get any reassurance on that front was if there was another Survation poll showing a rosier picture - and amazingly that's exactly what happened yesterday.

The Diffley Partnership commissioned a Survation poll that began its fieldwork before the previous one even ended, and it's significantly better for the SNP on the constituency ballot.  The seats projection doesn't quite show them on course for an overall majority, but it does show them knocking on the door with 62 seats.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Survation / Diffley Partnership, 17th-23rd April 2026):

SNP 38% (+3)

Reform UK 20% (-)

Labour 18% (-2)

Conservatives 12% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Greens 2% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 29% (-)

Reform UK 19% (-)

Labour 17% (-)

Greens 12% (+1)

Conservatives 12% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)

One sense in which last week's Survation poll was actually very good was that it showed there would be a Yes majority in a new independence referendum - something that most Survation polls in recent years have not showed.  The Diffley poll demonstrates that was not a fluke by showing the Yes vote rising higher still.  Having checked the small print, it looks like a possible explanation could be that Survation have finally dropped the dubious practice of weighting by recalled vote from a referendum that took place over a decade ago - but I don't want to be too definite in saying that, because last week's poll apparently was still weighted by 2014 vote.  I'm guessing there may be an error in the methodological note on one of the two polls.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 52% (+1)

No 48% (-1)

There have now been seventeen independence polls in this calendar year so far, ie. in the last four months, and *eleven* of them have shown a clear Yes majority.  The settled will klaxon is screeching tonight, and there are reports of it being heard as far away as Finland.

I was asked a specific question in the comments section of this blog the other night, so I just thought I'd take a moment to answer it - 

"James! You're an SNP member who isn't a slavish follower of the party line, so I'd be interested in your thoughts. We know that you oppose Swinney's approach of proclaiming an SNP majority the only way to get a referendum, but your objection has mostly been based on the unlikelihood of that being achieved."

To be clear, that wasn't the only reason for my objection, or even the main reason.  I was more worried about the precedent it would set - ie. if we weren't successful in this election, we'd then have lumbered ourselves in all future elections with the precedent of saying ourselves that we need to hit a target that, regardless of anyone's views of whether it's impossible or not, is certainly exceptionally difficult to reach.  I also didn't think the strategy was consistent with the principle of democratic self-determination.  As much as I'm an SNP member and want everyone to vote Both Votes SNP, I also don't think it's the business of any pro-independence party to try to place limits on how the Scottish people can exercise their right to self-determination, or to declare that there may be illegitimate or 'non-valid' ways of doing so.  If the Greens put independence in their manifesto, and if people vote Green, those votes still count.

Ever since the decision at conference was made, though, I've been repeatedly saying that all that really needs to happen is for John Swinney to soften his language before the election, and to make clear that although we're chasing a single-party overall majority as an ideal, a multi-party pro-indy majority would still constitute a mandate and would still be acted upon.  That does now seem to be happening to some extent, so I'm a lot more comfortable with where we are now than where we were last October.  Paul Hutcheon was fuming yesterday about Swinney 'shifting the goalposts', so it can only be a good thing.

"But recent polls suggest it's just about possible. So let's assume it is achieved. Do you think that would actually create any significant pressure on Westminster to concede? Or would they be able to dismiss it just as easily as they've always done?"

I think to break the logjam there's going to have to be some sort of 'wow' factor to the result, just as there was in 2011 - something that makes London commentators say "yeah, we didn't see that coming".  It could happen in several different ways - if the SNP win a higher vote share than expected, or if there is some sort of pro-indy 'supermajority', or if the SNP and Greens take first and second place respectively.  The Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll suggested both of the last two scenarios might be on the cards.  Remember also that the London commentariat are far more obsessed with the Starmer soap opera than they are with the constitutional fate of Scotland, so if Labour do poorly enough in the Holyrood election to play a role in Starmer resigning - for example if they finish fifth in terms of seats, as the Scot Goes Pop poll suggested they might - that could also make people sit up and take notice.

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Alex Cole-Hamilton really didn't want to answer the question about Prestwick Airport.

Anas Sarwar really didn't want to answer the question about whether he would refuse a peerage.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 28, 2026

What does anyone actually need six boats for? Does he have one in each continent, or something like that?

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 28, 2026

If the SNP had no new policies, the cry would be "You're knackered! You've run out of ideas!"

But because they do have new policies, it's "Why didn't you do these things nineteen years ago?"

You can't have it both ways, chaps.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) April 28, 2026