Even YouGov now say the Union Jack could soon be LOWERED as sensational MRP poll shows SNP on course for an overall majority

MRP Seats projection (YouGov / Sky News / The Times, 23rd March-8th April 2026):

SNP 67

Reform UK 20

Labour 15

Greens 11

Liberal Democrats 9

Conservatives 7

Now, I've estimated the chances of the SNP winning a single-party overall majority as around 1 in 200, and I maintain that it's a long-shot because the voting system is specifically designed to produce hung parliaments.  As we saw in 2021 it does that job very effectively indeed.  The SNP had a record-breaking 48% of the constituency vote but still fell one seat short of a majority.  However, I know there are many disciples of the YouGov MRP method out there, and I don't think it's realistic to pay no heed to YouGov of all firms saying, as they are tonight, that in 89% of simulations the SNP win a majority.  Even the lower bound of the estimate has the SNP on 63 seats, which would be only two short of a majority.

Crucially this is not happening simply because of a freakish split in the unionist vote - the SNP's own constituency vote share has recovered to a very healthy 41%, which if true is a great tribute to the leadership of John Swinney.  

Another thing I've said repeatedly is that there is no route to an overall majority that involves list seats, and technically this poll even casts doubt on that, because the SNP are projected to take a list seat - but it would be just the one, as Magnus Magnusson used to say.  The majority would essentially be won with 66 constituency seats, meaning the SNP would miss out on only seven constituencies: 

Shetland Islands

Orkney Islands

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Fife North East

Edinburgh North Western

Edinburgh Central

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Even among those seven, there are some real possibilities for the SNP if the detailed YouGov numbers are to be believed.  They're just three points behind the Tories in Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, where a big Reform vote could split Tory support just enough to give the SNP an opening.  Edinburgh Central is virtually a three-way dead heat, with the SNP and Greens both projected to be on 25%, and Labour just behind on 23%.  So in a best-case scenario the SNP may well still hold the seat, and in a worst-case scenario this could be a repeat of 2016 when the Greens handed the seat on a silver platter to a unionist party by putting up a candidate against the SNP - although in this instance the beneficiary would be Labour rather than the Tories.  

In spite of the perception that Caithness, Sutherland & Ross may be a lost cause, the SNP are projected to be only four points behind the Lib Dems there.  So the only four seats where the SNP would be out of the running completely are the true Lib Dem fortresses of Fife North East, Edinburgh North Western, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.

On the other hand, among the 66 constituencies the SNP are projected to win, there are of course some close ones, and none more so than the increasingly weird seat of Dumbarton, which the SNP should have gained from Labour in both of the last two Holyrood elections, but didn't because Tory supporters in Helensburgh tactically switched en masse to Labour.  The projection has the SNP winning by a mere two points this time, so to put it mildly that one can't be taken for granted.

In both Aberdeenshire West and Edinburgh Southern I'd have thought the SNP should be regarded as underdogs, but YouGov have them winning both by margins of seven points and six points respectively.  That's narrow enough that the results in both seats remain highly unpredictable.

As far as the three Tory "blue wall" rural seats in the south are concerned, YouGov have the SNP taking two, but both are still in the balance: in Galloway & West Dumfries the gap is nine points and in Dumfriesshire it's seven.  The Tories are in second place in both, but with Reform playing spoilers in a very close third place.

Banffshire & Buchan Coast has been touted as possibly Reform's most promising seat, but YouGov don't have them even close there: the SNP are on 41%, Reform are on 23%, and the Tories have been pushed into a dreadful third place in territory they held at Westminster level until two years ago.

A couple of other seats the SNP have to worry about are the ultra-marginal East Lothian Coast & Lammermuirs, where they're projected to be just six points ahead of Labour, and also Strathkelvin & Bearsden.  The latter really ought to be a reasonably safe seat, but YouGov have the Lib Dems just six points behind.  I'm slightly sceptical about that, though - that's an area that traditionally votes completely differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections, and YouGov may be making the mistake of factoring in the Westminster baseline numbers too much.  But who knows, maybe this will be the year that the Lib Dems finally break the usual pattern.  A leaflet that Ross Greer posted on Twitter certainly gave the impression that Labour were concerned about the Lib Dems in Strathkelvin & Bearsden.

On a more positive note, there's no sign of the close SNP-Lib Dem race in Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch that was suggested by Find Out Now's MRP poll.  YouGov have the SNP way ahead of the Lib Dems there by a margin of 46% to 24%.

Last but not least, I should just remind you that MRP projections have a much patchier record in Scotland than they do elsewhere in the UK.  For more details, read the piece I wrote for The National a few days ago HERE.

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My latest Holyrood constituency profile for The National is Glasgow Central.

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