YouGov seats projection is good for the SNP - but it's also a wake-up call that powerfully demonstrates why John Swinney's independence strategy needs to be amended

The new YouGov MRP seats projection in Scotland is rather neat, in the sense that it exactly reverses the result of the 2024 general election, giving the SNP 37 seats and Labour 9.  However, that does still mean that the SNP would fail to win around one-third of Scottish constituency seats at Westminster, which will hopefully be a timely wake-up call as SNP members approach a conference in which they will have to decide whether to back a John Swinney plan which bets the house on literally being able to win 90% of the Holyrood constituency seats.  It's just not going to happen, and the Swinney plan desperately needs to be amended.  Find out all the details of the MRP poll in my video commentary below.

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SNP roar to sensational 17-point lead as "Scotland in Union" propaganda poll hilariously BACKFIRES

Let joy be unbounded, because Scotland in Union's legendary propaganda poll is BACK - but it hasn't exactly produced the results they were banking on.  Find out all the details in the video below.

The Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025, launched eight long months ago in January, has been inching closer to its target figure...but can it get there?  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop stay afloat during this prolonged transitional period while I seek to find out whether video blogging is viable as an alternative funding model, card donations are welcome HERE.    Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

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Pro-independence parties on course for HUGE MAJORITY OF SEATS in new Find Out Now poll - but there's fresh anguish for Alba, as Alex Salmond's scandal-ridden former party looks set to be wiped out

So a little later than planned, here's my video round-up of the new full-scale Scottish poll from Find Out Now.  I particularly draw attention to John Curtice's very interesting observations about the list result in the poll, and why the numbers may be skewed as a result of the question wording.  His main point is that the Greens are being overstated, but if he's right I think it's pretty certain that Alba are being overstated as well - which would be disastrous for Alba, because even if the poll is taken at face value, they would be totally wiped out in terms of seats.

The Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025, launched eight long months ago in January, has been inching closer to its target figure...but can it get there?  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop stay afloat during this prolonged transitional period while I seek to find out whether video blogging is viable as an alternative funding model, card donations are welcome HERE.    Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

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More analysis of the Find Out Now poll as the SNP look set to benefit from Reform splitting the unionist vote

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new analysis piece at The National about the Find Out Now poll - not just about the independence numbers, but also about the party political voting intention numbers, which were released this evening.  You can read the article HERE.

Hey, what's that PERSISTENT NOISE and why are only UNIONISTS shielding their ears? You KNOW what it is, it's the SETTLED WILL KLAXON, as yet another Find Out Now poll shows a majority for independence

The National have released the independence results from their new Find Out Now poll...

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Find Out Now / The National):

Yes 52% (-4)

No 48% (+4)

There's no cause for alarm in the apparent swing to No, because the previous poll was insanely good for Yes and that may have just been caused (at least in part) by margin of error noise, ie. the new poll may just be a reversion to the mean.  The low 50s has been the most typical Yes vote share from Find Out Now, who over the years have shown a pro-independence majority in all but one of the independence polls they've ever conducted.  So yes, it's time to sound that SETTLED WILL KLAXON once again.

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Catch up with yesterday's video: JL Partners destroy their reputation as a polling firm with propaganda poll intended to fraudulently deligitimise the UK's recognition of the State of Palestine

JL Partners destroy their reputation as a polling firm with propaganda poll intended to fraudulently deligitimise the UK's recognition of the State of Palestine

No-one who witnessed Israel's highly organised attempt to subvert both the presentation and the result of the Eurovision Song Contest in May will have been surprised that they had a similar stunt carefully prepared for yesterday's UK recognition of the State of Palestine - but what is deeply reprehensible is that the British polling firm JL Partners were active and enthusiastic participants in that stunt.  In this video, I delve into the data tables of the JL Partners poll purporting to show almost 90% opposition among the British public to recognition of Palestine - and unsurprisingly find that it showed no such thing, and that the way the poll was represented in the media was highly misleading at best, and fraudulent at worst.

The Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025, launched eight long months ago in January, has been inching closer to its target figure...but can it get there?  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop stay afloat during this prolonged transitional period while I seek to find out whether video blogging is viable as an alternative funding model, card donations are welcome HERE.    Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

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Answering Adrian's innocent questions about recognition of the State of Palestine

A chap called Adrian Hilton, who appears to write for the Spectator and is also "Chairman of the Academic Council of the Margaret Thatcher Centre", has asked a series of eight questions about the UK's impending recognition of the State of Palestine (which will apparently take effect after a speech later today).  The questions are clearly supposed to be impossible to answer and yet most of them are actually extremely easy to answer.  I was going to reply to the questions directly on Twitter, but it would have taken quite a long thread, so I'll do it here instead.

"1. What are the borders of this Palestinian state?"

The pre-1967 borders of the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

"2. What is the capital city?"

East Jerusalem, de jure.  Ramallah, de facto, due to the ongoing illegal occupation of Palestine by a neighbouring state.

"3. What is its constitution or polity?"

A quick Google search suggests the Amended Basic Law of 2003 is the interim constitution of the State of Palestine.

"4. Who forms the government?"

Fatah.

"5. Who is its leader?"

Mahmoud Abbas is the President of the State of Palestine.

"6. How ‘sovereign’ will it be?"

In terms of constitutional theory, as sovereign as the UK or Germany or any other state with widespread international recognition.  But if you mean in terms of actual control on the ground, that obviously depends on whether or not Israel ends the illegal occupation of the State of Palestine's sovereign territory.

"7. How will this help ordinary Palestinians?"

Without a state, there will scarcely even be a Palestinian people left to help.  The Israeli government has made abundantly clear that any remaining Gazan Palestinians who have not yet been exterminated will be removed under duress from the territory of Palestine.  Refusing to recognise the State of Palestine would implicitly legitimise this act of ethnic cleansing and genocide.

"8. What about Israel's hostages?"

That is a completely unrelated issue, given that the hostages are held by Hamas, and not by the State of Palestine or by anyone in control of the State of Palestine.

Hope this helps, Adrian.

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The Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025, launched eight long months ago in January, has been inching closer to its target figure...but can it get there?  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop stay afloat during this prolonged transitional period while I seek to find out whether video blogging is viable as an alternative funding model, card donations are welcome HERE.    Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

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