1) There are up to four years left to go until the general election, which leaves plenty of time for Reform to implode, just as every Farage project in the past has ultimately imploded. If that happens, the Tories are much more likely to pick up the pieces than Labour.
2) If Reform don't implode, they may yet need the Tories as a junior coalition partner if they are to form a government. Badenoch's decision removes any chance that Reform would have to give up on ECHR withdrawal to seal the coalition deal.
So there's now probably a 75-80% chance that within five years, Britain will be in the dubious company of Russia and Belarus as the only European countries outside the ECHR and outside the Council of Europe. That will be a shock to the system of liberal unionists in Scotland, and if we strike while that shock is at its most raw, there'll be an opportunity to bring a significant minority of those people over to the Yes side and win a decisive majority for independence.
But as we learned from squandering the opportunity that Brexit 1 offered to win independence, the window of opportunity will be limited, because over time liberal unionists get used to new realities and reconcile themselves to them. So we'll need to be ready and this time there can be no procrastination.
*. *. *
With less than three months of the year to go, the 2025 Scot Goes Pop fundraiser is still short of its target figure. If you'd like to help keep the lights on during the several months it will take me to find out whether an alternative funding model is viable (realistically it could be a wait of around four months or more), card donations are welcome HERE. Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.
In four years time James the landscape will be totally different. There may be no more election as we no it.
ReplyDeleteDemocracy is a sham. That has become increasingly clear. There are structures and forces above our parliamentarians who are forcing a mechanisms of control that will change the political landscape utterly.
Just look at the advancement in IT and AI. Just look at the proposed digital ID and what it ties together. Details of you and to include biometric data such a facial picture, retina scan, fingerprint and mist probably DNA later on. And voice prints. HMRC do that already as do the banks. And so health records, HMRC records, your every bank accounts, driving licence, passport, director of company records ( which from 25th of this month are to require biometric data ) social security records, access and exit across borders, it's all being tied together.
And your mobile phone and computer use. Well the phone already logs everywhere you go, or at least where the phone goes. Police have been using tower data dumps for years to log who is on marches but its much more extensive than that. And of course phone movement can be tied to vehicle movements which vehicle movements are recorded at present by around 20,000 APNR cameras all over the road network that records all vehicles that pass. Few know it but the ANPR system is used, and has been used for some time to track vehicles in real time notwithstanding that all vehicle movements are retained for seven years already. And then of course there is facial recognition which aside of screening at border points like airports and ports can also be used in real time to track people. Glasgow city centre has such a system and of course ever more of the ubiquitous camera at and on trains and buses can be used in a similar manner. Its all being joined up - and for some time the ubiquitous cameras on buses and trains are used by the security services - albeit that hitherto they have not been online joined up.
But hey, with Digital ID surveillance becomes and ever more extensive.
Or your phone, smart phone that is. Used to access Google, What's app, send emails chat or whatever. Already the mass data is used to profile people. Cambridge Analytica have been doing it for years. Wouldn't like to guess how much is know about people now. Indeed, as long ago as about 18 years ago to get a SIM card in Australia for a phone you had to show your passport. Digital ID will sort that.
And if you think this is Orwellian then you're right. It is, absolutely utterly and structures above our national governments are with the connivance of our so called elected representatives are implementing the control system at pace.
So will there be another meaningful election in four years that we recognise. Frankly I doubt it and I remember a quip about the election where Trump said words to the effect that the election just passed would be the last like it. What he meant only just a year ago becomes so much clearer now as we look around and see what is going on.
And maybe to conclude, the EU are installing a system of chat control whereby centrally a state system will monitor in real time all What's App, Signal, Tik Tok, Facebook and other such elcotronic communications.
Orwellian, 1984 or is it Animal Farm or both maxed up. I think so but do folks know or worse still are they interested enough to care about our all being signed up to the " Sonder Wagon " or "Kaiser's Kaffee Geschaft " as it was known back in the day.
To an extent I agree with you Willie. There has obviously been a massive increase in the UK Gov extra curricular arms length but inner circle need to know only groups and bodies who are not elected operators. Regular listening to the Alastair Campbell/Rory Stewart 'Rest is Politics' illuminate this regularly in their general chat of who they've been travelling around the world engaging with. It was only through listening to Rory Stewart blethering with the American John Stewart on his American podcast - that Rory Stewart just casually dropped that UK Gov 10 years ago had planned to hand over the British Navy in its entirety to the USA - but objections etc changed their mind. You never hear a sniff of any of that - and probably much else besides - when we are obviously kept nicely distracted by whatever media and political counter-measures UKplc Gov choose to distract us with.
ReplyDeleteOn distractions - is the content of the article about the Alba/McEleny issue - ie maybe not being able to legally stand candidates for Holyrood 2026 nothing but a red herring of some kind e.g. they might have decided to opt instead for the General Election strategy which Jim Sillars said to Taz was the more productive thing to do and just don't want to admit it? It's hard to believe that the party leader MacAskill had not even decided what seat he would stand in. This doesn't seem to pass the sniff test of authenticity - or does it?
Apologies - it was the well known Jon Stewart - not John Stewart. Typo!
DeleteIf Scotland is not on the road to independence next year England will decide our out of EU Brexit out of ECHR and totally subordinate lives for us
ReplyDeleteEngland will vote Reform and Scotland and Wales can say goodbye to all hope of any peaceful democracy ever taking place as we say goodbye to our parliaments
Re Alba I think they will be struggling with much the same interference as the SNP suffered.
ReplyDeleteWhen first initiated when Alex Salmond was about the strategy of SNP1 and Alba 2 was an absolutely sound one that could and most probably would have secured a super nationalist majority in the 2021 Hollyrood election.
Indeed, when you look back some 1.093,000 list votes delivered 2 SNP MSP whereas that same vote for ALBA would have delivered around 28 ALBA.
A majority with 90 plus SNP / ALBA MSPs out of 128 with Alex Salmond back in the frame would have transformed things utterly.
But the SNP under Sturgeon sunk that approach destroying a massively independence mandated parliament . That did not happen by accident, nor did Alex Salmond's trumped up sex charge allegations and then when exonerated, he sadly died when visiting a foreign land.
Not difficult to think of interventionist hands. If the UK can bomb and kill a million Iraqi's on trumped up allegations that their country had weapons of mass destruction and oil, not difficult to think of dirty tricks a bit less discrete to retain Scotland.
And of course now we see the totalitarian state looming before our very eyes.
There is a big fight ahead in not just the UK but in the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe. Don't know about the world outside the West such as China, Russia, and other aligned countries.
But one thing for sure our politics aren't going to get anymore democratic. Far form it the clamp down is coming. But maybe, just maybe, Scotland will somehow through a massive unity vote and change the record and resist the clamp down. Can see some of the other EU countries maybe trying to - countries like Ireland, Hungary, Serbia. But don't know its a big change that's coming, and much quicker than we think.
What do you think James. Worth a blog piece on your thoughts.
Maybe you should reread James' ALBA FILES and Alba's 2021 candidate list. Quite a few overlaps there. Corri Wilson of the Corri-nostra. Chris McEleny! TAS. The Josh Robertson and a Reid. You-know-who's niece.
DeleteThen reconsider why the SNP could not possibly have endorsed them. And perhaps also why they ended up slamming Alba so hard instead.
11.04am so you preferrred Britnat MSPs to be elected.
DeleteI have the feeling that Alba was a self-publicity stunt for Alex & Tasmina's media company so Alex could spend more time rollicking with Anne Widdecome in a room full of fluffy toys on Russian TV.
DeleteGreat article, James
ReplyDelete