Hypothetical voting intentions if a Corbyn/Sultana left-wing party is set up (Find Out Now, 9th-10th July 2025):
Reform UK 34%
Conservatives 17%
Corbyn Party 15%
Labour 15%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Greens 5%
This poll suffers from the same problem as all hypothetical polling - although I haven't seen the question wording, it'll almost certainly have had to draw special attention to the Corbyn party to explain the options that were being provided, which may well have artificially boosted the party's support. But I still think this is bad news for Labour, because it vividly demonstrates which parties stand to suffer if Corbyn gets above non-trivial levels of support. Those parties are Labour and the Greens. It might just be enough to put the next general election beyond Labour's reach.
That said, one reason to be sceptical about these numbers is that they show Reform doing markedly better than in Find Out Now's conventional polling, and I can't think of any obvious reason for that. As far as I know the data tables haven't been published yet, and a touch of caution may be warranted until they are.
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Despite causing a wee bit of over excitement last time I aired it I'm going to try to get a fairly basic idea of political tactics across.
ReplyDeleteIf a Corbyn/Sultana, or any other party to the left of Labour, manages to gain some electoral traction then independence supporters are going to have to respond to that. A long standing position on the radical left, going back at least as far as Marx, supports the right of nations to self determination. They mean this ! However the political track record of nationalism is usually on the right, sometimes the fascist right, which leftists oppose and despise.
A leftist party with electoral support would open a new layer of potential support for an independent Scotland - IF the matter was approached sensibly.'Civic nationalism' with policies of social inclusion, well being economics and internationalism would be attractive to such voters while yelling about betrayal and Anglocentrism would make us look like whining children.
Don't look gift horses in the mouth even if they are not perfect thoroughbreds !
Interesting points. Let me mull them over and get back to you with my conclusions. "Life isn't a banquet, buddy."
ReplyDeleteThe new party definitely appears to split labour so therefore a good thing, Oh! And Corbyn might be free to maybe take a much softer stance on Scottish independence or even openly support the Scots right to self determination
ReplyDeleteCorbyn has always supported the right of self determination and has stated this quite publicly. His problem is his lack of leadership skills and his willingness to engage with people who will stab him in the back at the first opportunity. If he splits the labout vote all and good , but more than a few former SNP voters would vote for him and in constituency voting that could prove hugely damaging. If he had a bit of political shrewdness he would restrict his candidates in any Holyrood elections to the list, with a commitment to support a referendum and to supporting left wing policies. Land reform springs to mind.
DeleteI’m going to steal “ Don't look gift horses in the mouth even if they are not perfect thoroughbreds !”. Pithy
ReplyDelete