When Somerset's controversial "Stew" blogger started talking up Fergus Ewing's chances of holding his constituency seat as an independent, it struck me that he (ie. Stew) was setting himself up for a bit of a problem. It's become extremely important to him to hold the line, patently absurd though it is, that the SNP are definitely not going to win any list seats at all at next year's Holyrood election. I think he's banking on the simplicity of that (totally fraudulent) message to convince people to abandon the SNP on the list when they simply haven't done so in past elections - including in 2016, of course, which was before Stew's Damascene conversion on the subject and when he was still on the same page as me in pointing out that "tactical voting on the list" is a mug's game and essentially impossible to pull off successfully.
But by arguing that Ewing has a real chance of beating the SNP in Inverness & Nairn, Stew is by definition reducing his "projected number of guaranteed SNP constituency seats" in the Highlands & Islands and thus making it even more likely that the SNP will win at least one compensatory list seat in the region - which is one of the two regions where they already have a list seat, of course. So if Stew concedes that inescapable point in an effort to maintain at least a semblance of logical coherence, it basically pulverises the simplicity of his "definitely no list seats at all for the SNP" messaging and means he'll have to revert to a more complex and probably less persuasive sales-pitch that factors in the real possibility that in some places SNP list votes will translate into SNP list seats.
I was curious to see how he would handle the dilemma, but I wasn't quite expecting this -
Wow. So in the blink of an eye he's gone from "every single SNP list vote in Scotland will definitely be wasted" to "SNP list votes in the Highlands & Islands will not be wasted and that's a good thing because it means you can vote for Fergus Ewing safely". But the most important part of this new tactical voting advice is the bit he doesn't want to spell out, for very obvious reasons. The logic only holds true if the SNP don't fall short of the percentage vote on the list that Stew is expecting - in other words he's tacitly saying you can only vote for Fergus Ewing safely on the constituency ballot if you also vote for the SNP on the list. And by implication that has to be what he's advising you to do.
Stew telling people to vote tactically in favour of the SNP on the list - now that was a plot twist I didn't see coming.
By the way, if I lived in Inverness & Nairn I would be voting for the official SNP candidate Emma Roddick and not for Fergus Ewing - and that would be the case even if I hadn't rejoined the SNP a few months ago. It's no secret that I'm closer to Mr Ewing's views on identity politics issues than I am to Ms Roddick's, but Mr Ewing's call for the SNP to abandon independence for the next ten years makes it next to impossible, I would suggest, for independence supporters to vote for him. He's now become a short-term and medium-term unionist.
Ewing will trounce Roddick purely on local issues.
ReplyDeleteI very much doubt that. If Angus MacNeil couldn't beat the official SNP candidate in the Western Isles, it's unlikely that Ewing will do it in a more 'urban' Highlands constituency where the personal vote matters a bit less. More likely is that he'll split the vote enough to let a unionist in.
DeleteI have relatives living in Inverness city centre and they reckon it will be contest of priorities:
DeleteTransgenderism v Roads Safety
Even in the urban part of the constituency Ewing will be a shoo-in.
I've no idea if Ewing will win. Probably not. Andy Wightman didn't manage to make it in either (I know, he stood on the list and was ex-Scots Greens not ex-SNP, but even so). Personally, I am a huge Ewing fan, just. as I am also a Wightman fan too - perhaps I just like mavericks :-). Personal preference aside, I can see Ewing taking a lot of soft Unionist votes, in particular more conservative LibDems & more liberal Tories. Then factor in Reform taking up & wasting Unionist votes too and the result could be a nice clear lane for the SNP candidate to win at a canter. Maybe.
ReplyDelete"I've no idea if Ewing will win. Probably not."
DeleteSo you do have an idea.
Ewing is and has been a right wing conservative with a small C for his time as an MSP and his recent call to abandon independence for 10 years confirms this, and how anyone who wants an independent Scotland can consider voting for this chancer defies all logic.
ReplyDeleteAs Mrs Souter once said, I like to keep my thingy clean. Something the Bath Comic could never claim.
DeleteFergus Ewing is an Israel backing, foxhunting backing piece of Conservative (small c) trash.
ReplyDeleteOnce described by Ruth Davidson as 'to the Right of me', he is now a disgrace to both his family name and the pro independence movement.
He Is the candidate of what party?
ReplyDeleteK Boyd. Are you in his constituency with a sense of how people are talking or is this just your guess? In the pre 2014 SNP Fergus was “managed “‘ quite successfully but the toilet brigade have only one approach. My way or the highway, and it has caused huge damage. When the Indy vote is split a unionist will probably slip through. Another SNP own goal.
ReplyDeleteI would find it hard to vote for Ewing or Roddick. What a shambles the SNP is.
ReplyDeleteAch, there's always the ISP.
DeleteRoddick is an appalling option. She turns nearly everybody off unless they are exceptionally pro Trans. If we're serious about getting Independence, candidates like Roddick have to be jettisoned; they reduce the number of voters who'd consider Independence as an option even though gender and independence should not be considered together. She is also spectacularly thick.
ReplyDeleteAgree
DeletePuce-faced, very right wing, genocide excusing, foxhunting backing Ewing has now hammered the last nail in his electoral coffin with most independence supporters by directly calling for it to be completely off the agenda for the next decade.
DeleteHe is now a total embarrassment to everything his mother stood for and will, if re-elected, consistently vote with the Tories, Labour and Reform in Holyrood.
In other words, a unionist in everything but name.
Time to ditch that turncoat.
And I also agree. Roddick in my opinion isn’t interested in independence. She is just using the SNP, like more than a few of them, to push their transgender nonsense
DeleteWhat pro independence supporter could now possibly vote for quasi unionist Ewing?
DeleteAnswer - none.
Look no further than Roddick to work out why SNP are currently in the mess they are in. Clueless and divisive, lacking intellect or gravitas. Roddick can talk extensively about toilets. She is one of the agenda brigade who hijacked SNP to push their own agenda. Another seat lost to a unionist.
DeleteFar rather have someone talking about that, than backing the genocidal fascists in the Israeli government and taking pleasure in watching foxes ripped apart for sport.
DeleteEwing is despicable in those two respects.
Fergus Ewing will win. He had a big vote last time, he is considered small 'c' conservative, he has the likes of Alex Neil, the Herald and other media giving him a ton of positive coverage and is considered the common-sense and popular in his constituency candidate. He is also regurgitating the SNP wanted Salmond jailed narrative. He is getting very positive coverage and his plea for consensus cross-party competent parliament being the priority and holding off independence WILL go down well with his constituency demographic. His anti-SNP bad competence narrative is hard to fault when you look at his debate content records in detail - always questioning why something hasn't been done which could have been. Tricky. I think the locals will support him and the anti-SNP anti GRR hysterics and Salmond was wronged bods will support him. All those wanting the SNP to keep getting a kicking will support him and I suspect the Tories will slip their votes over to him - IF they don't aim to support the Lib-Dems who think they're in with a chance.
ReplyDelete"He had a big vote last time"
DeleteBut that's not true, is it? What you mean is that the SNP had a big vote in that constituency. Generally only a small proportion of a party's votes is a "personal vote" attributable to the local candidate.
Amazing how many internet scribblers seem to know Emma Roddick so well, who knew she was so outgoing that she's met so many of them able to describe her personality in such offensive detail, yet they all suddenly know and love old Fergus to bits
ReplyDeleteYour comment applies both ways I’m afraid which makes it meaningless. Have another go. What positive steps has she taken to promote Independence?
DeleteFergus has become the unionists favourite nat.
ReplyDeleteMy goodness, now the SNP has put up a candidate who is clinically mad.
ReplyDeleteAlthoughh she is clincally diagnosed as distached from reality she was made a government minister
ReplyDeleteIf Roddick beats Ewing then all hope is gone. The SNP will be lost to us as a credible political party.
ReplyDeleteEwing will only attract the gammon vote, some of the unionist vote and the outlier nutters on the WoS spectrum.
ReplyDeleteShit always finds its own level.