I'm going to take a brief break from covering the SNP leadership election, because I was asked two or three threads back to give an opinion on the Alba Party's claim that polling shows them to be on course to win a Holyrood list seat in the north-east region, which would probably be filled by Alex Salmond. The claim seems to be based on the regional subsamples from the YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News for their SNP leadership debate earlier in the week, which show the following for the list ballot in the north-east -
SNP 32%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 19%
Greens 17%
Alba 6%
Reform UK 3%
Liberal Democrats 3%
That probably would be enough for an Alba list seat - I can only say 'probably' because you'd need to know the constituency results before you can make the d'Hondt calculation. However, the problem is that the sample size in the north-east was just 150 respondents, and it seems unlikely that the numbers were correctly weighted to the regional population. (YouGov are unusual in that they do appear to correctly weight their Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls, but I'm not aware of any suggestion that they do the same for Scottish regional subsamples.) Therefore, you can't expect pinpoint accuracy or anything like it, which is demonstrated by the fact that Alba are on the implausible figure of zero in both Mid-Scotland & Fife and West Scotland. The chances are that Alba support is being understated in those two regions, but overstated in the north-east.
The best guide to whether Alba have a realistic chance of nicking a list seat in the north-east or anywhere else remains the national vote share, which can be considered much more reliable. In this poll Alba are on 2% nationally, exactly the same as at the 2021 Holyrood election, when they didn't really come close to winning a seat. If they could double that and get to 4% nationally, they'd be in the zone where only a slight overperformance in one or two regions could claim them a seat. As things stand, though, it's likely they'd still be falling short.
However, forgetting about unreliable regional subsamples, there is a much better argument for thinking Alba might be making a little progress in the north-east, and that's the Dyce by-election result from a few weeks back. They took a creditable 4% of the vote, significantly better than they managed in by-elections in the central belt towards the end of last year, and finished ahead of the Greens. OK, one swallow does not make a summer, and even 4% across the north-east region would not be quite enough for a list seat. But it is the first real sign that when Alba run a well-organised campaign, they have a message that is capable of resonating enough to make them competitive with at least one of what are generally considered to be the "big five" parties.
A final point: in the press release in which Alba make the claim about the north-east seat, they also say the YouGov / Sky News poll shows the Yes vote on 45% and the No vote on 55%. That's not true - the real figures are Yes 46%, No 54%, which in spite of the hysterical way the mainstream media reported the poll actually represents no change at all from the previous YouGov poll, thus suggesting the Yes vote is holding up well during this difficult period. As I've said before, I very much hope Alba don't start following the Wings practice of effectively talking up and embellishing the poorest polls for Yes, and falling silent out of disappointment whenever a good poll for Yes is released.
I'm on record as saying a Humza Yousaf win would be checkmate for independence, at least until he's deposed. But even if Yousaf does win, it would still be a mistake for any pro-independence party to be continually talking down independence. In that scenario, the SNP will inevitably learn the hard way that they've made a terrible blunder, and there'll be no value in other independence supporters actively contributing to that process by effectively campaigning like unionists. Our job will be to keep the flame of independence alive - just about - for however long it takes for the SNP to emerge from the blind alley they've wandered down.
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Over the last few days I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead. However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...
The simplest donation method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
If you wish, you can add a note saying "for the fundraiser", although even if you don't do that, it'll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.
If you don't have a Paypal account, last year's fundraiser is still very much open for donations HERE.
Speaking personally, and I live in the North east, I'll be voting Alba in every election that they stand in. I won't be voting SNP for the foreseeable future. Alba stand to make big gains if they can get the right message out.
ReplyDeleteBy big gains I mean a big enough increase in vote to start winning list seats.
Agreed.
DeleteHello Stravaiger , I agree with you , I will be voting ALBA too from now on because even if just one or two SNP MP,s in Westminster or Holyrood had said that Scottish independence should be put on the back burner it is to me a traitorous attitude given that over and over the electorate have asked for and been promised a Scottish independence election or referendum which has not in fact been delivered and as we have seen in recent news reports there have been several SNP MPs / MSP,s who have said they think Scottish independence should go on the back burner and that is too much for my pride to handle , these MP,s / MSP,s should be sacked for betraying what they were elected to do.
DeleteThe SNP exist to campaign continuously for Scottish independence that is what it’s membership want , if those representing the membership have changed their mind about campaigning continuously for Scottish independence they need to move on to another political party , it appears as though these traitorous
MP,s / MSP,s want to change the aims of the SNP and want those of us who want a continuous campaign for independence to move on.
It could be said that voting ALBA is “moving on “ but in the short term it’s the only way we have of showing these traitors that they do not represent our views.
If the SNP get back to doing what they should be doing what we voted them in to do which is continuously campaigning for Scottish independence I will move back to them but we need those within the hierarchy of the SNP who still believe in the continuous independence campaign to stand up and be counted first.
Terry Callachan Dundee
I just took part in a YouGov poll for SNP members, including asking for first and second preferences, opinion of different SNP figures, asking to rate the candidates on how left or right wing they are and how long been a member for. It also asked for questions on social issues such as same sex marriage and abortion. It may just be private polling but hopefully it will be published and give us an idea of the state of play and attitudes of SNP members. It was also tacked onto election/referendum voting intentions and also preferences for the timings of another referendum as well so that might be incoming.
ReplyDeleteSeveral people have mentioned taking that poll, it seems to have been underway for at least 36 hours. The problem is that a members' poll is likely to take longer to complete than a conventional poll, so even if the results are published, it probably won't be for quite a while.
DeleteMike Small seems to be losing it a bit again, him and wings should start there own new reality show, call it, pot calling the kettle black.
ReplyDeleteJames, do you still think Kate Forbes has a chance? I'm not meaning this to antagonise, I'm just looking for some reassurance.
ReplyDeleteWell, there are three ways of looking at this. There's an apparent SNP insider who claims to know for pretty much certain that Forbes has won. It's possible that he could be conning everyone, although he goes into quite a bit of detail about what he claims to be going on behind the scenes, so if he's not the genuine article it's a performance worthy of a Bafta. At the other extreme, we have Craig Murray saying he has inside information that Humza has definitely won. And in the middle, we have the publicly available polling information, which is hard to make sense of because of the lack of information about actual SNP members, but which tends to suggest a race which is too close to call.
DeleteThis is the 'fog of war' stage where the available information is totally contradictory and thus some of it will inevitably prove to be false. Only the people who really are on the inside will know the truth of it. I'm not yet ready to discount any possible outcome at this point in time, except maybe a win for Ash Regsn.
Meantime the bbc continue their yesterday story about the fall in snp membership without bothering their backsides to even hint at the obvious piece of factual context - how many members do other Scotland and uk parties have?
ReplyDeleteDuncan hothershall (I think it he) is the only voice I’ve seen that even begins to address that, and he does it clearly. Not that I know where he did now but from memory he says it is about 11,000 for labour and 7,500 greens.
Thanks for your response above, James. Why do you think there has been such a dearth in polling on SNP member voting preferences for this leadership contest?
ReplyDeleteWe have had polling on favourability, etc, but not much on the most important question in this contest. It's been quite bizarre.
It's just because it's so hard to do. Most polling firms rely on volunteer online polling panels, and only a small percentage of those panels are members of political parties.
DeleteI'd be surprised if YouGov weight their subsamples by region. Some very iffy looking results in there. The Glasgow subsample sticks out like a sore thumb. Apparently Labour are due to sweep the constituency and regional ballots there, while independence stands at 57% support. Hmmm.
ReplyDeleteI don't doubt if Labour are to see a resurgence, it will be felt most keenly in Glasgow. But it does strike as odd that they're supposedly substantially ahead there, while the SNP are substantially ahead in the rest of Central and West Scotland.
A liar ( Murray Foote) complains about other liars in the SNP lying to him and resigns. Foote ex editor of the Daily Record and author of the Infamous Vow leaves his position in charge of SNP communications.
ReplyDeleteLiz Lloyd Sturgeons fixer and close friend of ex Daily Record political editor also says she is resigning.
Neither of the above two should have been anywhere the SNP if it was to be a trustworthy party of independence with acceptable standards of behaviour. But numpties looked the other way.
Just what did Lloyd and Foote ever do to advance Scottish independence? However, I know what both of them did to scupper independence yet both were at the heart of the SNP and Scottish government.
Rats deserting a sinking ship?
Would they be going if they were certain that Yousaf was going to "win"?
DeleteAnother Smitty post on wos. Bafta acting award? I think he's aiming for Best Director.
ReplyDeleteCraig Murray allowed to post on WGD. That's just not fair how does Murray get to post on WGD but not me. Even worse he gets to point out some of Skiers foolhardy nonsense. How is Murray not on the WGD blacklist but I am? What have I done to upset the big dug - oh that's right I remember now I called him a charlatan because he lies about Sturgeon's involvement in the persecution of Salmond and he knows exactly what went down but tells his readers otherwise. Yes that's it.
ReplyDeleteThis is one of my all-time favourite Skier comments. Although Scot Goes Pop was his "home" for many years, I think we'd have to concede that in those days he never managed anything quite as barking mad as this -
Delete"My membership is nobody’s business. I do not agree for any information on me and how I voted to be given to anyone outside the party. My preference is that the SNP don’t count me in official numbers ideally in the aim for preserving democracy. However, I appreciate the latter might not be possible, and they will have to say I at least exist as number XYX."
You can just imagine it in the official declaration: "Humza Yousaf, 24,742 votes, plus the SECRET votes we're not going to tell you about cos of PRIVACY and to PRESERVE DEMOCRACY".
DeleteMaybe Craig has offered to share with WGD some of Stewart McDonald's boring emails. The ones about boring witnesses.
DeleteHello , independence for Scotland , WGD and others with blogs are very inclined to ban people from commenting on their blog if they say something they don’t like , I find it strange that on a subject as volatile as politics we have all these blog sites WGD WOS etc etc that simply cannot handle opposing views , they often blame their bans on a persons bad language or insults but it is very noticeable that bad language and insults are very much tolerated if your general views are the same as the people running these blogs.There would be many many more people on these discussion sites if it was simply bad language that was outlawed and NOT opposing views or insults as such because insults are commonly part of political discussion even in parliaments.We have reached a stage now where these blogs all have a small hard core of people who are allowed to pretty much say what they want and opposing views are run out of town with a ban, it’s why there are so few people commenting , it’s the same few die hards giving out the same narrow views day in and day out.This is not how it should be but it’s what you get when the moderator is the owner.
DeleteAnon who has just tried to post: Again, I'm keeping that subject off limits until this election is over. I'll have plenty to say about it after 27th March, though, and no, the question you pose is not as unanswerable as you think.
ReplyDeleteNot you as well. Can't anyone give a straight answer anymore? :)
DeleteHere's a reasonably straight one from Nicolas Sarkozy getting a grilling to distract from Macron's descent into dictatorship with a pensions bill he cant get through parliament - all in french unfortunately but something about the Iraq war being illegal and what appeared to be a reference to bribing some folks at the UN to kill Gadafi, followed by gallic shrug and elated smile, as though suddenly remembering the integrity of his judge, before topping it off with a classic, and for the rest, "politics is politics" https://twitter.com/VictorDjamba/status/1636825604921147422
DeletePeter Murrell is expected to resign as Chief Exec, numerous sources are saying
ReplyDeleteThe Times are reporting that.
DeleteThe Herald ( Andrew Learnmouth ) stating that the NEC have told Murrell to resign or face a vote of no confidence. Not exactly ideal, if true, in the middle of a leadership election. Learnmouth says the NEC have the numbers to oust him.
DeleteMy wife wants to know if we can arrange a holiday in the middle of October this year. So my question to the WGD numpties is - what do you think - will there be a referendum on 19 Oct ? 😂😂😂😂
The SNP is disintegrating so quickly Yousaf might not get the chance to be Liz Truss.
ReplyDeletePension Pete Wishart calls for an inquiry into Footegate or is it numbersgate. Cosy slippers Pete would normally brand such calls as conspiracy theories but it looks like he his hedging his bets as to how this will all play out and he wants to still have his London home for many years yet.
ReplyDeleteA flood of posts from Skier to try and play down the SNP car crash. If Murrell goes quickly Skier may not get his bonus😀
ReplyDeleteAnother WGD numpty golfnut seems to be living in a fantasy land as he thinks the SNP should be having monthly management meetings where such matters as finance and membership numbers are openly discussed. All these numpties seem to have a picture in their mind of how the SNP is run that bears no resemblance to reality.
Still nothing from the big dug on these matters. Like Wishart he is probably thinking about how best to position himself to maintain his income stream. Or perhaps he will be added to the growing list of Sturgeonites retiring.
Belarus jails two journalists for 12 years for telling the truth. In Scotland Murray only got 8 months for telling the truth. So I guess Skier and Dr Jim are correct that things ain't that bad in Sturgeon's Scotland.
ReplyDeleteWGD the site that said people were Unionists if they said members were leaving the SNP have no credibility at all yet WGD numpty tatu3 says people are rejoining in numbers according to Stirling Yes. Aye that other area of credibility Alyn Smith's Stirling mob.
ReplyDeleteRemember the WGD lot talked about 10k additional members joining when it was first mooted that large numbers have left the SNP.
But not to worry all will be well with the SNP membership numbers Skier said his daughter is joining.