I asked earlier how on earth the SNP had managed to hold on to win the Ellon & District by-election when there were more than enough Lib Dem voters to see the Tories home on transfers. Well, the answer is very simple - here's how the Lib Dem votes transferred for the final count.
Conservatives 161
SNP 159Non-transferable 165
Nobody could ever accuse the Lib Dem leadership of being equidistant between the Tories and the SNP, but it looks like their voters suddenly are. And if you think about it, that's perfectly logical, because Lib Dem voters are typically opposed to both independence and Brexit, so there's no longer any particular reason why the Tories would automatically be the more attractive option.
The Tories would appear to have now lost a major advantage in constituency tussles with the SNP, because tactical votes from Lib Dem supporters will probably be going in both directions. And arguably there's a warning here for the Lib Dems themselves - will their voters stay loyal if they train too much of their fire on the SNP and independence, and not enough on the Tories and Brexit?
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NEW CROWDFUNDER: On Saturday I launched a fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll on independence, which I intend to commission at some point between now and Christmas. If you'd like to donate, please click HERE.
Council hadn't got the Transfer Report up when I looked at the website, but their heading possibly explains that -
ReplyDelete"Deceleration of Results" !!
It was clear from the first preferences that for the SNP to win there had to be a substantial transfer from Lib Dems and Labour, and, since the latter are pretty scarce in the NE, it would have to be mainly from LDs. I suspect there are two main reasons - 1. The LDs oppose Brexit pretty strongly and I suspect that they have fears about farming and fishing being used as bargaining giveaways by the Tories, who will featherbed the few wealthy Protestant Boys of the Scottish Fisherman's Federation; 2.Like many other former 'NO' voters they have been impressed with the SG's handling of Covid19.
DeleteThe Lib Dem’s sit in no mans land , clutching at straws , they will sell to the highest bidder , will adopt any policy at all if it means getting them into government , we have seen them do that before and they will do it again if given the chance but they’re on a road to nowhere because nobody trusts them not even their own supporters they only get votes from their own supporters because those supporters hate the rest for one reason or another.
ReplyDeleteAnd so it looks like the Lib Dem’s will forever be lost floating in a wilderness of nothingness.
Sometimes I forget the Lib Dems exist.
DeleteThe BBC won't forget they exist. They will put them on as the " third of the big three" parties until only Cher and cockroaches are left in earth.
Deletehttps://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/2572960/snps-louise-mcallister-elected-new-councillor-for-ellon-and-district-in-by-election/
ReplyDeleteWhen Ian oops sorry Sir Ian Wood was on QT last night someone should have asked him if he got his knighthood for lying about the oil running out in 5 years time in the 2014 referendum. 6 years on and there is still about 50 years left. The oil will still be there long after liar Wood has gone and the UK is in the history books.
ReplyDeleteRemember that quote from Sheikh Yamani: "The Stone Age did not come to an end because of a shortage of stones."
DeleteThe Hydrocarbon (Oil) Age neither.
Muymalestado - bloody hell are you saying I won't be able to buy a can of WD40 in the near future to lubricate my garden tools. What is the world coming too.
DeleteCould say the same about plastic straws or microbeads. A decade ago I very much doubt that may people would of believed that they would be banned and yet 10 year latter they are.
DeleteNobody is holding sit down protests in country capitals or gluing themselves to the front of trains in support of fossil fuels. Netflix is not spending millions in making and promoting a TV programme saying how we should burn more fossil fuels.
How long it takes will depend on science, but the future is finding an alternative to products that don't need oil.
God help the environment if we need to grow plastics / chemicals rather than just mine/pump them out of the ground and refine them. The land/sea/resources needed for this would be enormous. And if they were readily biodegradable (as most bio-grown products are) it could be a real problem; jeez, imagine your car bumper started biodegrading after a few years. I suppose you could use wood, but that would cost a crap load more and mean cutting down trees and painting it with some sort of preservative made from a natural material such as...crude oil...
DeleteNetflix is one mother of an energy consumer. If you want to be greener; don't watch on demand HDTV. Watch low res and save your data locally, not in the cloud. Buy plastic DVDs rather than downloading from a datacentre.
Everyone seems to have stopped worrying about peak oil. Burning the stuff is madness for sure, as we are already past peak easy oil. I say this as a geologist originally (more energy production chemist now). Jeez, in the US they started fracking the shitty grade source rocks; that takes desperation. $100 a barrel is realistic. It's what was needed to meet supply costs. The world has struggle to recover since 2008/9 because oil is become too expensive to produce, and the alternatives cost even more.
It's only going to get more expensive and cause conflict. Our world is built on it and it can't be replaced. For electrical energy / transport maybe, but at great cost. In terms of a wonderfully useful chemical material used to help produce pretty much everything, it's impossible to replace it. What will we make stuff from? Trees? There are not enough forests as is.
Oil should teach you never to listen to Tories. The price doesn't match the value. It's grossly underpriced at the moment due to speculative debt fuel shale overproduction. Covid is causing more damage by temporarily reducing demand, ensuring there won't be enough supply in a year or two, ergo a huge price spike.
Lithium prices are not going to get cheaper either, only more costly. It's a fossil fuel too of course, just a bit more recyclable. In ten years or so, those calling oil bad will be calling for an end to lithium production due to environmental concerns.
The main problem is we just consume to much as a species. That's what we need to reduce.
All species will do it if given the chance; but we should be clever enough to realise the negative outcomes.
For sure there is always going to be a need for oil /plastics just not in the quantities there are now. Nobody is suggesting switching to DVD's instead of Netflix of course that would be just silly. Making a product that can't be recycled so ends up in big holes in the ground isn't the answer. That's why millions is being spent researching 'clean energy' and technologies to reduce the carbon footprint of things that use large amounts of energy.
DeleteCompletely agree that we need to stop using too much stuff, and the replacements probably are not the best alternative (as you say lithium batteries is a good example).
Ultimately we have to reduce the amount of fossil fuel we use (along with other factors) or we are screwed. I've been a meteorologist for just over 20 years now and the climate change predictions that I studied when taking my degree (which back then seemed far fetched and a long way off) I see happening now and they look like a walk in the park to what will probably happen in another 20 years if things don't change.
But back to my main point - fossil fuels just aren't cool anymore. They are they new tobacco, something you can't completely get rid off but you want to be used as little as possible and increasingly don't want to be associated with. Thats why you have car/engine suppliers pulling out of things like F1
https://www.ft.com/content/ba229a8b-082b-41a7-84ff-25bd556f598a
Being associated with gas guzzling cars being shipped around the world is just not good press. Much better to be spending your money on something much more fashionable like electric cars - maybe in the process your engineers etc will find the replacement for lithium then you will really do well.
Fossil fuels are not the only problem of course deforestation, over farming/fishing, over population etc are all problems but they are the big target. As I said you have nobody protesting to not use less fossil fuels, no pro oil Greta Thunberg and thats not going to change.
Totally agree Adam
DeleteTo be clear, I wasn't arguing with you and agree too :-) Just taking a break from politics to talk about the day job.
DeleteAs a geologist, I very much appreciate climate change. One of the first thing we learn is about how the climate constantly changes, often drastically over very short timescales, with profound impacts on the planet; it's all there in the geological record. Climate change science was, in effect, born of geology.
I am a strong supporter of renewables, and work on hydrogen storage and carbon capture in addition to natural gas/oil. However, peak oil still presents a major problem (which was my main point); there isn't enough 'cheap' oil left to provide people with the stuff they want, particularly in developing countries. That is a threat in addition to the climate problem, but has become forgotten about in the face of the latter. We hit peak easy oil about 10 years ago, as signaled by start of source rock fracking which needs $100 a barrel.
As for protesters, yes, I agree. However, they are somewhat hypocritical, which doesn't help their cause.
Greenpeace power their ships with heavy fuel oil. They go out to oil rigs in boats made of (oil based) plastic. They fly on planes powered by jet fuel. They wear clothes made from synthetic fibers made from crude.
They directly fund companies like shell and BP.
And it's not the oil and gas companies that produce the CO2 (or at least not that much and they are going to carbon neutral production + renewables), but people who buy then burn the oil. If you want to stop oil being burned, you should lie down in front of cars on a motorway, not attack oil rigs. As things stand, we have the equivalent of people protesting about deforestation by attacking garden chainsaw manufacturers in a boat made of Amazonian hardwood.
But then it's impossible to avoid using oil/gas and petrochemcial products as our world is built on it. Hell, we even eat it indirectly through synthetic fertilizers. Without it, we couldn't feed the world's population. If we all go veggie/vegan, there'll be no cowshit either.
ok, waffling over!
For sure there has been natural warming and cooling. Only people like Trump think that 'man has nothing to do with the warming we are seeing now. Unlike previously warming events we are breaking the natural checks and balances; were cutting down the trees that take out greenhouse gases whilst pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The planet up until now had a very good heat sink in the oceans to absorb the heat but we have managed to burn that up now. Personally I hope that most of the warming is man made, at least then we have a chance to stop it from increasing at the very least. If it is completely natural then we are completely screwed and there is nothing we can do to stop it.
DeleteBut as you say the lack of cheap oil will be the main catalyst for change. Being a low cost product is its only saving grace. Once that's gone then alternatives will become more competvly priced more people will use it and then economies of scale drive the price even more - its basic market economics.
There is NO Pandemic, it is a Ruse, what are they hiding?
ReplyDeletehttps://mobile.twitter.com/EatlovePray11/status/1316778274983419904
WHO knew, eh, who knew?
All these ex British Labour party members must be feeling right at home in the SNP these days as they are turning it in to another political party full of mindless idiots who cannot accept any criticism at all. How long before the red rose becomes the SNPs logo. Wake up SNP members.
ReplyDeleteMindless idiot = AMC
DeleteYou don't like the SNP? Who knew!
DeleteIf only you'd said something!
If your party is not acceptable to voters it will decline - like the Labour party.
DeleteIf you do not listen to your voters you decline.
If you do not listen then how do you get better.
If you tell your voters to go away and vote for someone else they will.
Agreed.
DeleteWhat party do you support right now?
What's it to you Skier - you told me not to vote SNP - so you can take your advice and shove it.
DeleteI see you haven't attacked the SNP today. Hope you are ok.
DeleteI am trying to help the SNP - you are the person who told me not to vote for them. A party member telling a longstanding SNP voter not to vote SNP - not a good look for a party member.
DeleteYou will need to show me where I told you to vote for specific party.
DeleteSkier - misrepresenting again - you told me not to vote SNP.
DeleteSkier - if only you did'nt say anything at all.
ReplyDeleteYes, I get the impression that would make you happy.
DeleteSkier - I would be happy if you stoped lying in general and stop posting misleading comments about my posts. That will do nicely but liars like you will lie.
DeleteI don't recall lying about anything, but insult away if you like. It doesn't remotely bother me and only does you damage in the eyes of others.
DeleteI tell the truth unlike you and if others can't handle the truth and want to insult me then they will be insulted by return in fair measures. I know lying doesn't bother you because you have demonstrated that repeatedly. You need to go and find a moral compass Skier.
DeleteGood to see the close associate of Sturgeon - Somerville is being challenged in her constituency.
The truth normally involves some sort of evidence to that effect.
DeleteAlso some actual statement of what the truth actually is.
DeleteAt present, you seem to be saying there's some sort of big conspiracy where Murrell controls, through Sturgeon, the whole of Scotland, including the police and CPS. He also controls the london met and whitehall.
Through this control, be managed to get 7 whitehall civil servants to perjure themselves in court to further the career of him and his FM wife. The plan specifically was to wrestle control of the party from the former leader who had trained Sturgeon for the role, handed her it on a plate, then promptly retired from politics to do a TV show.
Is that about right?
Skier back to his misrepresenting. "Is that about right ". Skier says - you clearly cannot distinguish right and wrong - away and ask someone to get you a moral compass.
DeleteWhy don't you tell us this truth you know then? You keep telling us to believe it without ever explaining that it is, nor providing any evidence to back up what you won't tell us. We just have to trust you because you know the truth cause a guy in the south of England told you.... That sturgeon is in a big pan-Scottish trans conspiracy to jail Salmond so he can't do another RT show. Or something.
DeleteSkier - misrepresenting again.
DeleteI will never understand why the LibDems didn't get ANYTHING from Cameron. A halfway deal on student
ReplyDeleteCosts, some NHS $$ and part of whatever their other pledge was and they would have swept to 1/3 rd or more in next election. They could have thrown in some green stuff and the blair whores would have gotten them a government.
That’s why they got nothing from the tories!
DeleteAfter 2010 a fair amount of Lib Dems jumped ship to the SNP.
ReplyDeleteThey were anti Tory and anti Iraq war so the SNP were the only show in town.
Maybe... some had trickled back to the Lib Dems as they were not convinced of Indy and with it seeming closer they were starting to panic. But a combination of Brexit, Boris and the safe hands of Nicola have tempted them not just to the SNP again but to indy itself.
Its not a swing that will be decisive but in certain parts of Scotland it will have an impact.
Just some Sunday morning musings.
Alastair
A couple of weeks before the referendum in 2014 I was parking my car near my local shops and there was a crowd of no supporters nearby. A Better Together Labour women approached as I was getting out my car and she asked me politely if I would be voting no. I said I would be voting yes. Her tone changed and she called me a Salmond lover.
ReplyDeleteI said I was not a Salmond lover I just wanted my country to be a normal independent democratic country and it was not a matter of personalities and politicians.
The independence of your country should never be about one person. I hold that view today as I did then. It is inappropriate to associate independence with any one individual.
It was a mistake of the Scottish government to work so closely with the UK on testing. As our European friends are learning, England is not to be trusted / relied upon.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.
This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.
The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.
This is interesting:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-data-definitions-and-sources/
The approach used to calculate this percentage using only newly tested individuals is currently under review. This metric provides additional context on the number of new cases however the current approach has an important underlying limitation: as more people are tested (and there are less people being tested for the first time) then the rate will progressively increase, potentially even if the actual rate in the population is declining. Work is underway to review this approach. Further information will be provided over the coming days when the review is complete.
So be cautious of this number. The more people are tested, the worse it will make things look.
" It was a mistake of the Scottish government to work so closely with the UK on testing" - well no shit.
DeleteNow if I had posted that comment all the mindless idiotic Sturgeon fanboys/fanGirls/fantrans would have been on my case calling me all sorts of silly names. So is Skier really a Unionist? No he is telling the truth for a change.
Anything to do with the Westminster crooks is just dealing with the devil - they will never act fair or honourably with Scotland because in their minds they own us - we are their colony. Yet Sturgeon persists with the sec30 gold standard nonsense.
"Now if I had posted that comment all the mindless idiotic Sturgeon fanboys/fanGirls/fantrans would have been on my case calling me all sorts of silly names."
DeleteI doubt that. They'd probably call you pathetic for the 'woke/terf/fantrans' type insults though.
Skier - I think you would be better looking for your moral compass.
DeleteI'm not the one hurling abuse at minority groups.
DeleteCrikey, the alphabet women and their helpers in the Scotgov/SNP are now a minority group according to Skier. Well I guess technically he is telling the truth for a change because they are a minority in the Scottish gov/ SNP but a very senior minority. Of course calling out people who carry out evil malicious acts would be deemed abuse in Skiers amoral world. No decent person would accept this behaviour. Of course Skier is not a decent person.
DeleteWilson and McKay of the Herald. What a pair of phoneys.
ReplyDeleteAndrew Wilson, he of Charlotte St Partners named after the London Charlotte Hotel that flies a massive Union flag.
DeleteWho knew the kirk was English!
ReplyDeleteThat aside, it shows how English Tory brexit is a wrecking ball for the UK. Everyone knows it.
https://archive.is/PhjtF#selection-549.0-549.60
Brexit: Anglican leaders issue Internal Markets Bill warning
The leaders of the UK's Anglican Churches have warned the government that its new Brexit bill could set a "disastrous precedent".
The Internal Markets Bill could damage the relationship between the UK's four nations, the archbishops of Canterbury and York and the heads of the Church in Scotland, Wales and Ireland say.
!
DeleteWash your mouth out or the wrath of generations of presbyterians will be upon you. :-)
The Church of Scotland is the Kirk. Presbyterian, Calvinist, fun!
These guys are the Episcopal Church of Scotland, the bit that accepted the attempts by the Stuart Kings James VI and Charles I to have Bishops and an Anglican style prayer book.
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