Sunday, June 26, 2016

Scotland would now vote in favour of independence, according to post-referendum Panelbase poll

We now have confirmation of the Panelbase numbers - fieldwork was apparently conducted on Friday and Saturday, so entirely after the referendum result was known.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 52%
No 48%

According to the Sunday Times who commissioned the poll, that represents a 7% increase in the Yes vote and a 7% decrease in the No vote.  I'll have to take their word for that, because I'm not aware of a recent Panelbase poll giving No a 55-45 lead.  The last one listed by What Scotland Thinks is from April, and showed Yes 47%, No 53%.

To put this in perspective, 52% is the best ever showing for Yes in a Panelbase poll.  It's only the third Panelbase poll to put Yes in the lead - and the other two were questionable for one reason or another (either because of unusual question wording, or because of an unusual question sequence).  Assuming there was nothing odd about the way the question was posed in this poll, it'll essentially be the first time Panelbase have ever shown a majority for independence in a way that can't be easily disputed.

And what I said in the previous post still stands - Panelbase have a long track record of reporting only the most modest of movement on the independence question, even when other firms were picking up much bigger swings (most obviously in August/September 2014).  So this poll certainly does not rule out the possibility that we'll see much larger Yes leads in other post-referendum polls.  That may already have happened, of course, in the shape of tonight's ScotPulse poll putting Yes ahead by 59% to 32%.  I don't really know what to make of that one - ScotPulse are a fully-fledged internet polling panel outfit, but I'd like to hear some assurances that they made proper efforts to weight the poll correctly.  Their previous forays into political polling haven't always filled me with huge confidence.

8 comments:

  1. Where did the Sunday Times stand on Brexit? I question the motives behind any Poll coming out as this time.

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    1. I just love cynical people. Did you see that one of the biggest $ backers of leave made like 3 billion for his fund and 200 million for himself. Now he has like 1.2 billion himself. He built a Roman temple for the chickens on his tax shelter farm. Talk about " control".

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    2. The Sunday Times was for Brexit, The Times was for Remain.

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    3. I do to , this is the start of the game - playing for Indyref2 , don't believe any of it ! .

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  2. 52:48 eh?
    That sounds familiar... I believe that's known as "decisive"

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  3. Times poll was of 620 people Post poll 1600

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    1. Yes but the pulse poll was a unscientific internet poll , not really worth considering . The Panelbase poll shows a jump in support for independence but nearly as much as I thought it would be. Once the initial shock wears off I fear the figures will slip again

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  4. Hi James, do you know what the % vote in favour of Leave would have been WITHOUT counting the Scotton votes?
    A larger margin obviously, but I've no idea by how much?

    Also, do you know the % turnout for 18-24 year olds? Young folk's rightly upset about Brexit, but I think a very low % of them bothered to vote?

    Thanks,
    Davieboy

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