tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post970883357411546542..comments2024-03-29T00:45:59.964+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: For an example of why pro-independence voters should use their lower preferences in the local council elections, look to Northern IrelandJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85981288281936808172017-03-06T08:49:12.196+00:002017-03-06T08:49:12.196+00:00To explain the above, suppose your bottom three ra...To explain the above, suppose your bottom three ranked parties are ABC. You put A ahead of B. However what you don't know is the majority of those who voted for A had C as their next preference. Your votes are enough to get your favoured party candidates elected. Their excess is now transferred to A as expected. Because of that A is pushed over the threshold. This is where it could go wrong as A might very well now have an excess which is then passed on in proportion to C who then has more votes than B. Assuming that between them A, B and C were competing for the last two seats and votes ordered A B C before your transfer your strategy has backfired and instead of ensuring anyone but C is elected you've done the opposite.Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-52212521511605073672017-03-05T22:25:04.139+00:002017-03-05T22:25:04.139+00:00I think the only danger is people not filling in a... I think the only danger is people not filling in as many of their preferences as they can. If everyone who supported the SNP did that it wouldn't matter the order they did so. The STV system in use elects before it rejects. So even if every vote went to a single candidate from a party as soon as he's elected the excess passes to the next preferences and so on.<br /><br /> The problem is if voters don't make second and subsequent choices candidates might not gain enough votes despite the level of support for their party. Other than making you feel good I'm not sure any method of filling in your preference will overcome "lazy" voting. Trying to organise a complex attempt at advising different voting patterns in different areas might work but probably won't.<br /><br /> The easiest thing is advising that you can vote more than once for the same party before even voting for another and should.<br /><br /> Contrary to what some advise I'd not vote for any unionist or even independent candidate as if even a fraction of your vote gets transferred it's going to be portrayed as a vote against independence. Nor is it safe to vote Labour or LibDem as part of your vote pushing them over the threshold any portion of their vote might be transferred to the Conservatives.<br /><br /><br /><br />Iain McCordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04114399330514686626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10895804479126715742017-03-05T09:16:52.203+00:002017-03-05T09:16:52.203+00:00You're all better off numbering them in revers...You're all better off numbering them in reverse order. i.e. Number 1 should go to the candidate with the surname closest to the end of the alphabet etc. The huge issue with our STV system in Scotland is that the lists are alphabeticalised and not randomised, and as we read and write from the top of a page, it's human nature to vote in that order. Doing the opposite will go some way to counteracting the problem.Broxihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05920659385429546087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3647204638398754192017-03-03T17:07:21.345+00:002017-03-03T17:07:21.345+00:00James - a question on the STV system.
If there ar...James - a question on the STV system.<br /><br />If there are 3 SNP candidates standing in my ward (likely) and there are 3 people from my household voting. Is it better that each of us give each of the 3 SNP candidates different preferences? <br /><br />E.G.<br /><br /> Me Spouse Son<br />SNP1 1 2 3<br />SNP2 3 1 2<br />SNP3 2 3 1<br /><br />Or would it make any difference if the 3 of us gave each of the 3 SNP candidates the same preference?<br /><br />Hope you can help answer this.<br /><br />Ta.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25449673624931635982017-03-03T09:48:00.117+00:002017-03-03T09:48:00.117+00:00(laughs uncontrollably)(laughs uncontrollably)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37027432199706932492017-03-03T01:23:44.855+00:002017-03-03T01:23:44.855+00:00James, I don't agree with you that list MSPs a...James, I don't agree with you that list MSPs are "unelected" as such, but if you see it that way, you might prefer STV - it gives everyone an individual mandate, and preserves a constituency link (albeit the constituencies are larger and multi-member). Speaking personally, I've cooled on STV in recent years, because I've realised from elections in the Republic of Ireland that it sometimes produces outcomes that aren't especially proportional.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61177078706066606972017-03-03T01:18:24.312+00:002017-03-03T01:18:24.312+00:00Mr Coleman this website is about Nationalism and n...Mr Coleman this website is about Nationalism and not nepotism. Glasgow Working Class 2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40634096769560406452017-03-03T01:09:20.497+00:002017-03-03T01:09:20.497+00:00"In our neighbouring ward we have a sitting c..."In our neighbouring ward we have a sitting councillor whose surname begins with B, and who is well-known and well respected. We also have a second candidate, an unknown, with an initial well down the alphabet. We're going to have to work quite hard to get people to place the unknown ABOVE the sitting councillor to avoid being dropped off in the early rounds."<br /><br />This is really important; in my council (though not my ward) last time, the SNP hoped to get an additional councillor and stood two candidates, the incumbent and someone whose surname started with the same three letters, but was placed above on the paper by virtue of the fourth letter.<br /><br />No advice was given about which to put first, voters tended to vote in alphabetical order, they didn't get enough votes for the two, so the incumbent missed out.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37921585774938847182017-03-03T00:29:43.953+00:002017-03-03T00:29:43.953+00:00James,
Can you enlighten me. Is there any voting ...James, <br />Can you enlighten me. Is there any voting system which is reasonably fair to all in a country but doesn't lead to unelected placemen taking up positions in a Parliament. <br /><br />At Holyrood it seems we have a parliament which is half elected together with a half appointed system where some people can sit in well paid and pensioned jobs merely for attending and by being a member of a political party. No wonder we have the Nutty Professor in HR and another lecturer Dr Scott hoping to join the gravy train soon.<br /><br />James Colemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940550268246715045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28686979904794576972017-03-02T22:22:43.979+00:002017-03-02T22:22:43.979+00:00If you look at actual real-life worked examples of...If you look at actual real-life worked examples of STV transfers, it's striking how many voters drop away as "no transfer" in the later stages because they only marked two or three candidates. Often these are more votes than the total which transfer to the next round! It's absolutely clear that these people, if they had expressed further preferences, could potentially have altered the destination of the last seat.<br /><br />For this reason SNP canvassers are urged to encourage voters who are committed to a different party to give the SNP candidate a lower ranking rather than no ranking at all. These 4th or 5th-choice votes might get us that last seat!<br /><br />If every independence supporter undertakes to rank absolutely <i>everybody</i> (including other unionist candidates) above the Tories, this will definitely result in fewer Tories getting elected to our councils. Bad for May in itself. But then it will reduce the number of councils the Tories are in line to win, and maximise the chances of the SNP being in a position to form coalition administrations. This is <i>good</i> for the "stealth referendum" tally, not bad, and it's also good for local services and local people.<br /><br />It's paradoxical, I know, but when you think it through there's no downside and definite potential advantages.<br /><br />AFTER YOU'VE RANKED THE PRO-INDY CANDIDATES, GO RIGHT ON AND RANK EVERYTHING THAT DOESN'T HAVE "CONSERVATIVE" BY ITS NAME.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36214506014073014812017-03-02T22:13:23.261+00:002017-03-02T22:13:23.261+00:00Fine, I was only explaining my reaction - I though...Fine, I was only explaining my reaction - I thought you were arguing from a position of "no votes for unionists" because of ideological purity, but I realise now that you weren't so let's not argue about it. Stick to the practicalities because these are what matter.<br /><br />When they add up the raw votes for each "side", only first proferences will matter. If you put SNP-1, your vote will go on the indy pile irrespective of where you've put your lower preferences. There's no possible way to do it other than that, and that's how it's always been done in the past.<br /><br />When they add up the number of elected councillors for each "side", it won't make any difference whether your lower preferences got a LibDem elected rather than a Tory, so again there's no down-side.<br /><br />When they add up the number of <i>councils controlled by the various parties</i>, getting a LibDem in instead of a Tory could be enormously helpful. The SNP will not go into coalition with the Tories so if there are enough Tories the SNP will be in opposition. However, if there aren't enough Tories the SNP might well be able to form a coalition administration even if they don't control the council outright. SNP voters putting other unionist party candidates above the Tories could well make that happen.<br />Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88219903565971900252017-03-02T22:03:29.687+00:002017-03-02T22:03:29.687+00:00Six inch nail should penetrate any fascist skull. ...Six inch nail should penetrate any fascist skull. English Frednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42934348717967049742017-03-02T21:51:49.774+00:002017-03-02T21:51:49.774+00:00Thank you Peter, I have done that. I hope I have ...Thank you Peter, I have done that. I hope I have explained on your own blog how it is that giving lower preferences to unionist party candidates cannot possibly assist May in her "stealth referendum" at all, and how it might actually assist the SNP by improving the party's chances of forming coalition administrations in certain councils.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64450926263253062972017-03-02T21:49:47.453+00:002017-03-02T21:49:47.453+00:00All this stuff about "ideological impurity&qu...All this stuff about "ideological impurity" is total pish. I was thinking solely in terms of countering the British establishment's aim of using the local elections as a way of undermining Nicola Sturgeon as she prepares to take on Theresa May over a new independence referendum. It's all about the political realities as far as I am concerned.<br /><br />I have acknowledged at least twice now that my focus on a particular aspect of this reality had blinded me to another perspective. I have thanked you for highlighting this alternative - or should we say additional/supplementary - perspective.<br /><br />You can shove that crap about "ideological impurity".Peter A Bellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14204261467942498747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17532145094648227742017-03-02T21:21:50.329+00:002017-03-02T21:21:50.329+00:00Peter, I see from other posts of yours that you ha...Peter, I see from other posts of yours that you hadn't considered the point I'm making and that you're considering it now. Fair enough. My reference to "dangerous dogma" was to the apparent assertion that nobody should under any circumstances give a ranking to a candidate standing for a unionist party, as if that in itself was some sort of ideological impurity.<br /><br />Unionist party candidates may be equal in terms of how Theresa May wants to count up her votes, but there's no way she can possibly count your third or fourth preference as a "vote for the union". First preferences are all that will be counted when it comes to the quick-and-dirty nonsense of which side has "won" the council vote. The only other thing that will be counted is the number of councillors actually elected for each side. So if an independence supporter's third-rank vote is instrumental in getting a LibDem elected instead of a Tory it won't make the slightest difference to that.<br /><br />Where it can make a difference is in the overall composition of the council, and who the SNP councillors have to work with. A LibDem rather than a Tory might make the difference between an SNP/LibDem coalition being possible and the Tories running the council. I know which I'd prefer.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71331970433821837402017-03-02T21:03:23.209+00:002017-03-02T21:03:23.209+00:00I bought a clip on man bun on eBay yesterday unfor...I bought a clip on man bun on eBay yesterday unfortunately I'm bald where it clips on, any ideas (asking for a friend)Glasgow Cooncil Tax Payernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73211282686874657602017-03-02T21:03:19.659+00:002017-03-02T21:03:19.659+00:00You have your head stuck up Trump and the tories a...You have your head stuck up Trump and the tories arse you worthless sockpuppet imbecile.The poster above is a clueless twatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9205402465646347582017-03-02T21:01:35.651+00:002017-03-02T21:01:35.651+00:00I intend to add this to my blog post on this topic...I intend to add this to my blog post on this topic. It is a point I simply hadn't considered. I shall, of course, acknowledge that this is your perspective. If you would like to make some comment yourself, you'll find the article at http://indyref2.scot/beware-the-brits-stealth-referendumPeter A Bellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14204261467942498747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2964742312446601972017-03-02T20:59:49.103+00:002017-03-02T20:59:49.103+00:00Tell us again how Loki is the same as Tommy you wi...Tell us again how Loki is the same as Tommy you witless tory sockpuppet twat.<br /><br />Hahahahaha!!The poster above is a clueless dipshitnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4725937034500232252017-03-02T20:40:33.752+00:002017-03-02T20:40:33.752+00:00There was a time when the Nat sis claimed you cou...There was a time when the Nat sis claimed you could put a monkey in the Labour Party for election and the monkey would win.<br />Now the Nat si monkeys want elected.<br />The local elections are about service delivery and not petty nationalism.Glasgow Working Class 2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43269462650917864692017-03-02T20:34:30.339+00:002017-03-02T20:34:30.339+00:00I don't regard an open and frank discussion of...I don't regard an open and frank discussion of voting strategies as "dangerous territory". Indeed, I find it a little disturbing that anybody should.<br /><br />You make a valid point about the ranking of unionist candidates in terms of their amenability to working with the SNP. But, in terms of MY point, which you choose to ignore, ALL unionist candidates must be regarded as identical in that a vote for them counts as a vote for the option in Theresa May's 'stealth referendum' which denies us #indyref2.<br /><br />Open your mind just a little and what you will see is that what we are talking about is no more than two slightly different perspectives on the same voting strategy.Peter A Bellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14204261467942498747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-87840683115194259762017-03-02T20:29:57.635+00:002017-03-02T20:29:57.635+00:00Having said that though, once you've ranked al...Having said that though, once you've ranked all the pro-independence candidates, go on down the list. I know it's a bit of a thought to put any mark at all against Labour or the LibDems, but by ranking them above the Conservatives you can do your bit to minimise the number of Tory councillors. And in doing that there is NO CHANCE AT ALL that you will disadvantage any of the candidates you already ranked higher.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19350419979388550622017-03-02T20:27:13.323+00:002017-03-02T20:27:13.323+00:00That is entirely wrong. Think about your local co...That is entirely wrong. Think about your local councillor, and the people your SNP councillors will have to work with. Ask yourself, would my SNP councillors be just as happy with a Tory, with a strong Tory group on the council, or would it maybe be better to get a LibDem into the last seat instead? Or Labour maybe, think about your own local circumstances.<br /><br />Your lower preferences are an opportunity to disadvantage the Tories by pushing them below other unionist parties. Doing this cannot possibly hurt the SNP (or Green) candidates you've given your higher preferences to. You're spouting blind dogma here.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68636262757229997872017-03-02T20:23:33.640+00:002017-03-02T20:23:33.640+00:00I really thought I had explained this. So long as...I really thought I had explained this. So long as you put the pro-independence parties at the top of your rankings there is absolutely no possibility of harming their chances one iota by ranking others below them. None, zero, nada.<br /><br />Once you have run out of pro-independence candidates to rank, it is quite possible your vote might retain influence. Your vote may be transferred in such a way as to determine <i>which</i> unionist candidate gets the last available seat in your ward, at a point when all the pro-independence candidates have either been elected already or been eliminated.<br /><br />If you really, really don't care whether you have a Tory or a LibDem or a Labour councillor, if you see all three as being equal, then don't rank them, fair enough. But if you think your SNP councillors would find it easier to work with a LibDem than a Tory, then why wouldn't you rank the LibDem above the Tory?<br /><br />You're getting into dangerous dogma territory here Peter.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-91708757303594827392017-03-02T20:23:06.961+00:002017-03-02T20:23:06.961+00:00Perhaps try forgetting about tactics and vote for ...Perhaps try forgetting about tactics and vote for the party that you think will deliver local services at economical costs to the recipients. Leave aside fascism and hatred of the English.Glasgow Cooncil Tax Payernoreply@blogger.com