tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post9170317248242899007..comments2024-03-29T11:59:17.118+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Surviving "Nuclear Winter"James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47143476785349805252017-06-07T05:40:34.661+01:002017-06-07T05:40:34.661+01:00I feel sick...I feel sick...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68420378970541481332017-06-06T19:20:37.350+01:002017-06-06T19:20:37.350+01:00I hope big fat pouding face gets the boot in Orkne...I hope big fat pouding face gets the boot in Orkney and Shetland. Largs T Ladynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64695663038038713312017-06-06T18:18:26.020+01:002017-06-06T18:18:26.020+01:00:) Maybe they've hooked up and that's why ...:) Maybe they've hooked up and that's why we've not heard much from either of them over the last couple of days. Maybe they need to get past the "hot lovemaking" part of their hookup before we'll hear from them again. All wrinkly and squirmy and je t'aime oui je t'aime with an Old Holburn rollup afterwards, and scrape any bits off.BunnyFunsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12391364970759725340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73229317235934043752017-06-06T17:01:33.664+01:002017-06-06T17:01:33.664+01:00I've heard East Dunbartonshire is good odds fo...I've heard East Dunbartonshire is good odds for an SNP win as well as North Perthshire.<br /><br />East Lothian going Labour is also good odds if you fancy a bet against your fav team.<br /><br />chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39053712227557399302017-06-06T16:16:31.700+01:002017-06-06T16:16:31.700+01:00Don't encourage the halfwit.
While we're a...Don't encourage the halfwit.<br />While we're at this, don't encourage Aldodamus the Britnat seer either.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3606814438148841272017-06-06T15:51:22.183+01:002017-06-06T15:51:22.183+01:00That would be dreamy
Yeah I think you're righ...That would be dreamy <br />Yeah I think you're right re the dire Murray being on the cusp of oblivion. Really hoping you're right about ork/shet. <br />Honestly I'm sick to the back teeth of seeing Murray's sour face popping up to trot out tired soundbites..... "Another divisive referendum blah blah blah" Al Skinnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00131219905689635124noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86676114404128117192017-06-06T15:38:23.445+01:002017-06-06T15:38:23.445+01:00Labour 1 (not Edinburgh South),LibDem 1(not Orkney...Labour 1 (not Edinburgh South),LibDem 1(not Orkney and Shetland), Tories, 4 ( 3 borders and AW and K) SNP 53Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88598173997139238282017-06-06T14:27:56.271+01:002017-06-06T14:27:56.271+01:00My prediction is SNP - 49 Tories - 7 Slab - 2 Libs...My prediction is SNP - 49 Tories - 7 Slab - 2 Libs -1. I think we will take Shetland and lose Edin West to Libs. Murray will hang on and another seat will go Labour in Aberdeenshire or North East somewhere.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34613544549289477342017-06-06T14:27:21.713+01:002017-06-06T14:27:21.713+01:00My gut also tells me that Slab will get 0 and libd...My gut also tells me that Slab will get 0 and libdems 1. Which conversely means that the SNP will at least be high 40's.<br /><br />I expect the Tories to win the 3 border seats, East Renfrewhsire, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardinshire. My gut says they'll take Pete Wishart's seat which takes you to 7 but thereafter I struggle to see where they'll get much more. As much as there will be surprises (maybe they take Edinburgh South, maybe East Dunbartonshire) surprises tend to be small in number so you do get to a likely ceiling of about 10. with a floor of 6 and a probability of 8. Laukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68999675870382342702017-06-06T13:34:46.832+01:002017-06-06T13:34:46.832+01:00You could be right but I think the young - finally...You could be right but I think the young - finally having something to vote *for* - WILL turn out, thus resulting in a hung parliament = Labour propped up by SNP.<br />Hosanna!<br />Just for fun I'll repeat my forecast, just in case it's right: SNP 50, Ruth's suicide-inducing scum 8, self-determination hating FibDums 1, "Scottish" "Labour" a big fat zeroAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14172025067178523389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6682144341106674242017-06-06T13:14:41.110+01:002017-06-06T13:14:41.110+01:00With every poll and subsample it would appear to m...With every poll and subsample it would appear to me that broadly the campaign has had little effect on polling numbers in Scotland. SNP around 43%, Tories around 28%, Slab around 25%, Libdems around 6% so we're probably still looking at SNP getting about 45 to 52 seats, Tories 6 to 10, Slab maybe hold onto 1, Libdems likewise<br /><br />In England I think we are looking at a Tory win largely because of a factor that I've that I've not seen discussed anywhere. Postal votes will have been out for a while and returned in most cases well before any Corbyn surge. Alloy that with Corbyn's numbers relying on youth turnout then I think we will see the Tories get about a 50 seat majority. <br /><br />The only positive is that May has been sufficiently damaged during the process that she will shortly be replaced. Most likely after the UK Government storms out of negotiations with the EU in about 6 months so that she can be the fall guy for the economic shock that follows. At which point its either Boris, Davis or IndependenceLaukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56795897063134902472017-06-06T12:59:15.924+01:002017-06-06T12:59:15.924+01:00Moray has now changed, it was 5/6 for snp and tori...Moray has now changed, it was 5/6 for snp and tories...tories have now gone back to evens for it. That's skybet?<br /><br />North East fife is now a lib dem fav....as is Edinburgh west<br /><br />North Perthshire now 5/6 for snp and tories....chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11287842968443532132017-06-06T12:54:52.264+01:002017-06-06T12:54:52.264+01:00Panelbase today Scottish sample - SNP 44% Tories 2...Panelbase today Scottish sample - SNP 44% Tories 29% Slabour 21% if my numbers are correct . This is without the don't knows of which was 9% roughly.<br /><br />Sure James will correct me if I am wrong!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7919568102146095562017-06-06T12:49:48.476+01:002017-06-06T12:49:48.476+01:00Does anyone know what's happened to GWC2? Ther...Does anyone know what's happened to GWC2? There was virtually nothing from him yesterday and he's failed to turn up again today. You'd expect "something" at a time like this. It doesn't feel right. I've checked all the obvious places - James' back garden, Nicola's back garden, the gimp section in Ann Summers. But nothing. Please keep your ears to the ground and your eyes open. I'm worried about him. We should all be worried about him. And remember to love.<br /><br />PS If you happen across him hiding in some bushes you can coax him out with reassuring words - "nazi", "knickerless", "fash". Whisper them quietly and offer treats.BunnyFunsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12391364970759725340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23326002583524587712017-06-06T12:40:10.325+01:002017-06-06T12:40:10.325+01:00For all that extrapolation of the percentages sugg...For all that extrapolation of the percentages suggest that the SNP will lose 8 or 9 seats, the bookmakers still make them odds-on favourites in four of those touted as likely losses - eg Moray, Perth and North Perthshire, Edinburgh North, Aberdeen South. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23184713577721236512017-06-06T12:31:54.412+01:002017-06-06T12:31:54.412+01:00Yes I think that is fairly obvious given they stol...Yes I think that is fairly obvious given they stole the hardcore unionist vote that Labour had left.<br /><br />Now with the tories having quite a nightmare of a campaign, these elderly voters have probably switched based on that. <br /><br />From what I can gather, the SNP vote hasn't suffered much from the labour surge, in any event, it's the SNP's disappointing performance in education that is as much to blame for the loss of support...as well as the way another indyref was spun by the mainstream media....ie now.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68019999713201495092017-06-06T11:56:53.007+01:002017-06-06T11:56:53.007+01:00Fieldwork dates were 1-5 June. Fieldwork dates were 1-5 June. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73156899581608332912017-06-06T11:03:59.599+01:002017-06-06T11:03:59.599+01:00A Scottish labour recovery in Aberdeen South is gr...A Scottish labour recovery in Aberdeen South is great news.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75987463697996071532017-06-06T10:49:49.697+01:002017-06-06T10:49:49.697+01:00I took part in the poll online on Saturday.I took part in the poll online on Saturday.glennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16735615332865729219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32530163663887548262017-06-06T10:41:50.788+01:002017-06-06T10:41:50.788+01:00In the short term someone will prolly lose their j...In the short term someone will prolly lose their job at one or two firms since their credibility will be in tatters.<br /><br />However, this is still after all the polling companies postured about doing a mea culpa for some glaring past mistakes and had promised to learn lessons.<br /><br />So the bottom line is that in the medium and long term the polling industry as a whole is going to be even more of a laughing stock and the public will treat them accordingly. <br /><br />The public really don't give a shit who is individually to blame when it comes to polls being all over the place saying completely different things. <br /><br />The public will blame them all and trust them even less. The truth is, they don't really trust them that much right now tbh so good luck with another polling debacle after this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-3694957457510078452017-06-06T10:30:10.344+01:002017-06-06T10:30:10.344+01:00There's also a rump of panicky tories clinging...There's also a rump of panicky tories clinging on to the idea that Messina will save them all with his magical databases. <br /><br />Yeah, bout that. How did that go for the Remain campaign Messina was also neck deep in? Not well. To say the least.<br /><br />Messina also had Cameron to work with and as incompetent as he clearly was he could still string a sentence together to the public without looking like he wanted to vomit all over them, a la May.<br /><br /><br /><br />So the TLDR.<br /><br /><i>Canvassing matters. The rest is feeble bullshit.</i> <br /><br /><br />Is the Canvassing saying what Atul claims? Some of it definitely is, but not all.<br /><br />Which makes Labour's job no easier than the tories because they are still all dealing with completely contradictory polls.<br /><br />Except for one thing.<br /><br />No Corbyn Lead. Certainly not yet.<br /><br />Which means despite everything and despite one of the most incompetent tory leaders in modern times you'd best get prepared for a tory win of some kind. Whether it's a tiny pyrrhic one for May or a full blown majority.<br /><br />Unless Labour take the lead in any poll that's still the reality.party gamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2359639306042183962017-06-06T10:12:28.465+01:002017-06-06T10:12:28.465+01:00YouGov model has been updated. SNP back up to 46 s...YouGov model has been updated. SNP back up to 46 seats, range 32-54.<br /><br />Tories 304 (for all of GB), range 266-342. I think that's the lowest reading yet. Lab 266, range 230-300. Lib Dem 12, range 6-19.<br /><br />Looks like someone (either YouGov / Survation or ICM / ComRes) is going to end up with egg on their face.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18030288559421186872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35348389164942137692017-06-06T10:07:29.226+01:002017-06-06T10:07:29.226+01:00"3) There is no sign of "panic" in ..."3) There is no sign of "panic" in the Tory high command.". Perhaps because things are going they way they wanted. I do not think they want to win in England.Nodroghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11627233930655472420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15397619154472458712017-06-06T09:59:31.585+01:002017-06-06T09:59:31.585+01:002 and 3 are indeed immaterial.
Not least because...2 and 3 are indeed immaterial. <br /><br />Not least because Theresa May could be campaigning in outer mongolia and it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference. For those with their head up their arse who somehow haven't noticed, May is being kept well away from actual voters and would still end up in an empty warehouse surrounded by a handful of the 'party faithful', her minders and the usual spineless BBC reporters.<br /><br />As for a lack of panic, really?? The tories have activists on the public's doorsteps <i>right now</i> ranting about Corbyn being an IRA supporter in 2017. They've been told to lead with that by the tory high command because this obviously isn't just some random issue that popped into a tory canvassers head. Here's one example, and remember, it's not the excoriating response to the tory from the sensible lady that matters here, it's that the tories clearly <b>ARE</b> so fucking desperate and panicky they are on the doorsteps with this stuff.<br /><br />https://www.indy100.com/article/tory-campaigner-ira-jeremy-corbyn-face-time-tom-james-election-2017-7770676<br /><br />So onto 3.<br /><br />Labour Uncut has indeed been comically rabid about Corbyn while Atul was happily predicting an extinction level event for Labour not that long ago. <br /><br />So is this new revised assessment a clear-eyed warning backed by evidence or just yet more axe-grinding by an ultra Blairite? <br /><br />Well an easy way to tell is motive and conclusion. Is the article used to lay the blame firmly at the feet of Corbyn to the exclusion of everything else? Or does it go into issues of concern from the campaign of which we all know Corbyn is but one of many? Because whatever you think about Corbyn you REALLY have to be reaching not to concede he's had a far better campaign than an 'extinction level event' article would have led you to belive. <br /><br />Even the most tory friendly polling is still a good deal better for labour than it was a scant few weeks ago. Back when tory majorities of 200 and 250 being ranted about by boggle-eyed tories drunk on the announce bounce who somehow still didn't have a clue just how incompetent Theresa May was.<br /><br />Regardless, Canvassing has to be taken seriously <b>IF</b> it's backed up by those actually doing it and then detailed precisely where it's being received. Merely saying it's 'Outside London' is way too vague to be anything other than random rumblings from a few people. <br /><br />Actual named seats that matter with credible figures in the party detailing canvass returns would 100% have to be taken with the utmost seriousness. <br /><br />But if the canvassing is suspiciously light on details then those suspicions may be well founded.party gamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85781474366911366442017-06-06T09:51:45.975+01:002017-06-06T09:51:45.975+01:00Considering all 3 Unionist parties are promoting t...Considering all 3 Unionist parties are promoting the "Only we can stop the SNP" I'm hoping with the Labour revival it might split the unionist vote more. Maybe that'll help the SNP keep more seats. The tribalism in Scottish politics might even undo the "paper candidates" stitch up the unionist parties tried to implement to allow each other to win seats from the SNP.Mike Lothianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13237750772765325464noreply@blogger.com