tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post9145031762760192210..comments2024-03-28T13:11:21.938+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Holyrood predictionJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34488117836873327182015-05-26T16:32:49.399+01:002015-05-26T16:32:49.399+01:00That's complete nonsense. Nobody even knew Lab...<i>That's complete nonsense. Nobody even knew Labour were likely to come second in 2010. Many people expected Catriona to win it for the LibDems. She came third in what she herself called a two-horse race!</i><br /><br />The Lib Dems always like to pretend like they can win things. But if it really was seen as a Tory-LD contest in 2010, I have to ask what that was based on. In 2005, Labour were within 4% of Mundell, with the LDs 16% behind.<br /><br />Regardless, the SNP weren't even in double figures in 2005. So unless they were taking votes from Mundell, they could only have been splitting the anti-Tory vote.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48264960166028762992015-05-26T14:25:58.960+01:002015-05-26T14:25:58.960+01:00I forgot to add that the only real opposition to t...I forgot to add that the only real opposition to the SNP is the Brit Nat Press and Media, mainly in the form of the BBC and STV who are twa peas in a Brit Nat pod as far as I am concerned.Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5586647469485501552015-05-26T12:01:21.681+01:002015-05-26T12:01:21.681+01:00David (if you're still here, or anyone else wh...David (if you're still here, or anyone else who can answer), you said <br />"Not one Green MSP or top list candidate didn't campaign for Yes."<br /><br />About a year ago I tried to watch an independence debate from, I think, Strathclyde University. I don't have a TV, and my internet connection was very slow that day, so I gave up after a few minutes.<br /><br />I did, however, hear that the panel was balanced, with two Yes and two No. On that basis, I deduced that the Green on the panel (Martin Bartos, who has in the past been the party's only constituency candidate for Holyrood, and who was one of the 3 Westminster candidates to keep his deposit on May 7, so I consider him fairly "high profile") was a No.<br /><br />Can anyone confirm or deny this, please? I wasn't able to hear the part of the debate where he actually spoke, which would have enabled me to work it out for myself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-42628804599960704202015-05-26T11:55:15.349+01:002015-05-26T11:55:15.349+01:00All of us First - Nicola for First MinisterAll of us First - Nicola for First Ministerchalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-12566758870462141642015-05-26T11:51:42.722+01:002015-05-26T11:51:42.722+01:00The only wee snag with that is that "Nicola&q...The only wee snag with that is that "Nicola" doesn't begin with an A!Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76736609073841478902015-05-26T11:31:56.031+01:002015-05-26T11:31:56.031+01:00I expect the SNP / Green bloc to hold or even slig...I expect the SNP / Green bloc to hold or even slightly increase its majority. The challenge - and the danger - comes afterwards. Do they hold a second indyref? If so, when? What happens if the UK government blocks it - will they hold one anyway? <br /><br />Given the consequences of losing a second referendum I think we will start to see splits opening up within the SNP in the next Holyrood parliament. Should they be reliant on the support of Greens and / or Socialists, these troubles may be amplified. <br /><br />The SNP will increasingly find itself in office but not in power. As for lib / lab / con - I don't expect them back in any meaningful sense for a long time. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31467096050905966102015-05-26T09:24:09.447+01:002015-05-26T09:24:09.447+01:00I think we are all forgetting what happened during...I think we are all forgetting what happened during 2011....the SNP pushed their good governance with a minority, so imagine what we can do with a majority (without ever believing it possible) and they also had the tremendous presence of Alex Salmond and the Alex Salmond for First Minister campaign, which helped lesser prospective MSP's win their constituencies and gain list votes.<br /><br />I'm not sure if they changed the rules just after 2011 so that it isn't possible for there to be a Nicola Sturgeon for FM on the ballot paper, if there is nothing stopping them from doing that, then I think we have nothing to worry about, constitutionally, the EU referendum and conditional obligation to go for indyref should England vote us out, would probably go down quite well, as it's empowering people, yes voters and soft no's.......I'd prefer the devo max question but fully understand the opportunity that might present itself to us very very soon.<br /><br />The only things that have effectively changed since 2011 are that now the Labour tactical voters for Westminster have come over to the SNP for Westminster, the greens will struggle to make an impact, why?<br /><br />Because they lack credibility, they lack conviction on the doorsteps, Patrick Harvie is a smartarse and they will soon fall into the trap of slagging off the SNP for everything that is wrong with the world and the people who have voted SNP for the past 6 years, won't like it very much, as a high proportion of them are also yes voters, or soft no voters.<br /><br />I'd think the SNP would lose more votes to an SSP, they have much better arguments to left wing SNP people and they don't tend to be arsey about things, in my opinion anyway.<br /><br />But people going back to vote Labour who voted SNP? Can't see it, when the comparison is Nicola or Kez! Nicola hands down.<br />chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43040786350599574912015-05-26T09:22:22.365+01:002015-05-26T09:22:22.365+01:00What nobody here seems to be factoring in is the p...What nobody here seems to be factoring in is the possibility mooted by commenters that David Cameron wants to hold the EU in out referendum on the same day as the next Hollyrood elections. At present there seems to be a 50/50 chance that he will depending on how his renegotiations go. <br /><br />If he does then the campaign will be dominated by the European question. I'm not sure how this would affect the parliamentary vote. It could turn a lot of SNP voters who are anti-EU off from voting SNP, especially if Sturgeon and Salmond are seen campaign heavily for a staying in. It could mean we get UKIP MSPs for the first time. Also if he does, will it force Sturgeon's hand on a second referendum? If withdrawal from Europe becomes the central issue of the Hollyrood campaign then she will have to have a response that shows that the SNP will be able to stand up for Scotland's interests in the event of withdrawal.<br /><br />This Guardian article suggests that Sunday's Polish election result has killed off any hope of Cameron getting a change to the benefits EU citizens get in the UK, so withdrawal is not just theoretical it could happen.<br /><br />http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/25/david-cameron-eu-plans-andrzej-duda-poles-ukalexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17307986658978359972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69748061811252303412015-05-26T09:10:37.235+01:002015-05-26T09:10:37.235+01:00The greens strike me as sanctimonious.
They had t...The greens strike me as sanctimonious.<br /><br />They had too much power in the Yes Scotland group and were the reasons for the airy fairy replies and didn't want the SNP who have actually won elections to do their stuff.<br /><br />I would never ever vote for the Green Party. Some of their policies are inherently stupid and Natalie Bennett was awful during the campaign, they are like a left wing UKIP.chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39466448710005430202015-05-26T08:40:13.466+01:002015-05-26T08:40:13.466+01:00I cannot ever see Labour voters returning to the &...I cannot ever see Labour voters returning to the "fold". They just are not Labour voters anymore and never will be again.<br /><br />Once people's eyes have been opened to Labour's blatant lies and untruths by pro-indy sites and social media there is no going back.<br /><br />Besides - they have to pick another leader and potentially deputy leader and sort out which ex-MPs are going to take over all the best MSP list seats. Total carnage for months. I will be surprised if there is much of any SLAB Party left at all by SE16 once they have sorted that out.<br />Hosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07962638502091728814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81775596814831431102015-05-26T06:44:51.374+01:002015-05-26T06:44:51.374+01:00It's simple. If indy is your main aim, vote SN...It's simple. If indy is your main aim, vote SNP twice. If you are a Green, feckin viote Green!<br />If you are an OO, Britnat bigot, vote Labour. Of course any selfish twats should vote Tory.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48907513678813592902015-05-26T04:13:58.985+01:002015-05-26T04:13:58.985+01:00That's complete nonsense. Nobody even knew Lab...That's complete nonsense. Nobody even knew Labour were likely to come second in 2010. Many people expected Catriona to win it for the LibDems. She came third in what she herself called a two-horse race!<br /><br />2015 was a completely different situation. It was always going to be tight between the Tories and the SNP, with Emma needing every vote she could scrape up.<br /><br />The Greens were perfectly entitled to stand, if they didn't care one way or another whether Mundell won. But don't come bleating to SNP voters to help them out after that.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55359762543111297272015-05-26T01:25:04.853+01:002015-05-26T01:25:04.853+01:00The SNP going up against 3 Right Wing Brit Nat Par...The SNP going up against 3 Right Wing Brit Nat Parties, I don't see the Tories, Fib Dooms or the Labour Party picking more votes or seats. Not after more cuts and austerity and ploughing more cash at Trident and probably trying to start another war with somebody.<br /><br />I for one will never ever vote for any of the Brit Nat Parties ever again for any reason as long as there is breath in me. I don't think I am alone in that stance as somebody who has previously voted for Labour and the Fib Dooms.Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25990098302708727122015-05-26T00:58:28.947+01:002015-05-26T00:58:28.947+01:00But you put up spoiler candidates who had no chanc...<i>But you put up spoiler candidates who had no chance in the general election, and arguably lost us Mundell's seat. Thanks for nothing, from a resident of Tweeddale. You whined for "tactical" votes in the Euro election to prevent Tasmina getting another seat for the SNP, and succeeded in getting it for UKIP instead.</i><br /><br />The SNP had no chance in Mundell's constituency in 2010, but stood a "spoiler candidate" anyway. If they hadn't done so, there's a good chance Labour would've taken the seat and wiped out the Scottish Tories.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59758648986329364722015-05-26T00:38:37.321+01:002015-05-26T00:38:37.321+01:00So your point is that independence should be attai...<i>So your point is that independence should be attained at all costs....</i><br /><br />Within reason, yes. The SNP is not a right wing party, and to suggest that it is and that therefore independence might be less desirable, is ludicrous.<br /><br />You seem to be saying that you'd rather have more seats for the Greens than independence. Fine, vote for the Green party. But, for approximately the 65th billionth time, stop trying to hoodwink SNP supporters whose first priority is independence into co-operating with your self-serving plan. SNP supporters would rather have independence than more seats for the Greens. And the way to get independence is to maximise SNP seats, every time. If it were not so, I would have told you.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27265681458535424952015-05-26T00:27:43.594+01:002015-05-26T00:27:43.594+01:00It's possible that something that happens with...It's possible that something that happens within the next five years might cause a sudden surge to a Yes vote. Catastrophe theory and all that. If that happens, Nicola needs to be in a strong position and able to move fast, with a mandate behind her. The only way she will be in that position is if as many people as possible vote SNP on both ballots.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69508743545114808982015-05-26T00:24:31.953+01:002015-05-26T00:24:31.953+01:00David, more Green MSPs will not be bad for indepen...David, more Green MSPs will not be bad for independence if you gain them honestly, and especially if you gain them from people who have been voting for unionist parties in the past. It would be lovely to have an enlarged campaign that way. Ditto the SSP.<br /><br />What will not be lovely is if the SNP gain fewer Holyrood seats next year than in 2011. That will be ABSOLUTELY portrayed as a weakening of support for independence. If the lost seats result in gains for unionist parties, as may easily happen even if the lost votes have mainly gone to the Greens, it will be a FREAKING DISASTER.<br /><br />If your love of the Green party is so great that you'd rather see the SNP weakened and independence made less likely, just on the off-chance the Greens might pick up a few more seats, forgive me if I don't go along with it.<br /><br />I've got one thing to say and I'll say it again. No SNP supporter is twisting your arm to vote SNP on the list. Please return the favour. We get it that you want to vote for the party you prefer. Do that. Nobody is stopping you. Just stop pretending that list votes gifted to the Greens by SNP supporters will do anything but weaken the SNP.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-14634898290550942242015-05-26T00:16:47.004+01:002015-05-26T00:16:47.004+01:00I'm not disputing that. But, well, Robin Harp...I'm not disputing that. But, well, Robin Harper. Mainly, though, it's about commitment. The SNP is about independence. Harvie said he might be disappointed for a couple of days after a No vote but no biggie. It's tactical.<br /><br />I do not trust Harvie to pursue a window of opportunity to go for a second referendum if one presents itself. Sturgeon will be aiming entirely at securing an opportunity for a Yes vote if that's on the cards. Harvie will be figuring out whether it will be good for Green electoral prospects and maybe off-shore wind or something like that.<br /><br />We get it, you support the Greens and you will vote for them and that is right and proper. The Greens should have the list MSPs their share of the electorate entitles them to have. But please stop this lying and pleading with SNP supporters to weaken their own party, perhaps fatally, to get your party another half-dozen seats. Because that is exactly what you are doing.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56685510019552374322015-05-26T00:14:05.449+01:002015-05-26T00:14:05.449+01:00I may be misunderstanding you but this sounds like...I may be misunderstanding you but this sounds like you think the next yes campaign should be very much like the last one. It will be accused of being an SNP front by unionists no matter what the facts are. If I'm perfectly honest I didn't think much of some aspects of the last yes campaign. Too much happy clappy, not enough on the dangers of staying in the union (despite the polls a Tory victory was always likely due to Millibands personal ratings), and almost any other currency option would have been better politically. I've no idea what you mean by Devo Max being a litmus test for the SNP it's just one more step on the long road as far as I am concerned.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77711999212870941352015-05-26T00:09:12.289+01:002015-05-26T00:09:12.289+01:00In fact, having re-read what you (David) just repl...In fact, having re-read what you (David) just replied to, I'm beginning to think you have comprehension problems.<br /><br /><i>.... how have SNP/independence supporters become so deluded as to imagine that a weak SNP government propped up by the Greens is preferable to a strong SNP government? It's insane.</i><br /><br />To which you replied "Well if you like the Green's policies better than the SNP's? Then it would be better."<br /><br />News flash. If you like the Greens' policies better than the SNP's. YOU ARE NOT, FUNDAMENTALLY, AN SNP SUPPORTER. You are a Green supporter who may occasionally vote tactically for the SNP. We get it. There are some of you around. We thought you were our friends.<br /><br />But you put up spoiler candidates who had no chance in the general election, and arguably lost us Mundell's seat. Thanks for nothing, from a resident of Tweeddale. You whined for "tactical" votes in the Euro election to prevent Tasmina getting another seat for the SNP, and succeeded in getting it for UKIP instead.<br /><br />Not having learned anything at all from that last ploy, you're now trying to trick SNP supporters into weakening their own party and giving votes to you instead, by lying to them that this is a no-fail way to increase "indy MSPs". And I suppose you'll just saunter off nonchalantly again if that idiotic suggestion causes the SNP to lose seats which are picked up by unionist parties. As could all too easily happen.<br /><br />NOBODY IS TRYING TO STOP GREEN SUPPORTERS VOTING GREEN. If that's your bag, be my guest. Just stop lying and smarming to unwary, impressionable and ultra-soft-hearted SNP supporters.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-10594819265142293332015-05-25T23:58:29.201+01:002015-05-25T23:58:29.201+01:00If you like the Greens' policies better than t...If you like the Greens' policies better than the SNP's, bloody well vote for them. Dozens of people have told you to do it and they're not suggesting you shouldn't. Especially if independence isn't your over-riding priority.<br /><br />The objection, which I thought you'd grasped but now I'm not so sure, is to you and your mates trying to trick people who are core SNP voters into a "tactical" Green vote by lying to them that it's a better way to get independence than voting a straight SNP ticket. It categorically isn't, and it has the potential to kill independence stone dead.<br /><br />So please spare us this whining about how Green voters should be allowed to vote Green, and start respecting the right of SNP voters to vote SNP.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35814189746623077582015-05-25T23:54:41.925+01:002015-05-25T23:54:41.925+01:00I want independence; I quite like some but by no m...I want independence; I quite like some but by no means all Green policies. However the only things I've witnessed the officially pro independence Greens achieve is to split the pro independence vote and lumber us with Coburn and Mundell. First gain independence then worry about which blend of policies to implement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-740946257285661832015-05-25T23:47:23.213+01:002015-05-25T23:47:23.213+01:00I will be voting SNP twice to try and get another ...I will be voting SNP twice to try and get another majority for an independence referendum. It worked last time.<br /><br />I accept that Nicola might not judge the timing to be right, but if the opportunity is there, then we need to have that option. Another few years of Tory austerity cuts, broken promises on devolution, and the chances might be as good as ever.<br /><br />We only need a 6% swing to get 51%, and another few years of younger voters coming through will account for half of that.<br />Onwardsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7489332268138255572015-05-25T23:36:55.310+01:002015-05-25T23:36:55.310+01:00To be fair to the Scottish Green party, it has sup...To be fair to the Scottish Green party, it has supported independence since it was founded.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08595238601806033868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58712996379208897572015-05-25T23:33:52.174+01:002015-05-25T23:33:52.174+01:00Ok I profoundly disagree with the Greens being bad...Ok I profoundly disagree with the Greens being bad for independence. I think that the Greens can make the next Yes campaign better because it wont just be the SNP + some other guys who no one has heard of. More Greens make the campaign for independence genuinely multi-party. Rather than break up the Yes campaign Greens allow it not just to be accused of being an SNP front by stupid unionists. Also the SNP aren't right wing. They just aren't as leftwing as I would like. The litmus test for the SNP would be Devo Max.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08595238601806033868noreply@blogger.com