tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post9057008092910203987..comments2024-03-29T04:11:41.539+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Poll commissioned by anti-independence campaign backfires catastrophically, with almost as many people backing independence even when confronted with a leading questionJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9083489889714268602014-04-12T21:26:09.892+01:002014-04-12T21:26:09.892+01:00YG fieldwork 20-24 March
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cl...YG fieldwork 20-24 March<br /><br />http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nwphafy857/YG-Archive-140324-Scotland-times-2.pdf<br /><br />"Imagine that, instead of the proposed two-option referendum on independence there was a three-<br />option referendum, offering people the choice of full Scottish independence, increased devolution<br />to the Scottish Parliament or maintaining the Scottish Parliament's existing powers. How<br />would you then vote?"<br /><br />Indy 31% : More Powers 36% : Status quo 22%<br /><br />So in a couple of weeks indy rises by 4% according to this style of question.oldnatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63275165513724290402014-04-12T11:27:01.688+01:002014-04-12T11:27:01.688+01:00Yes it's that one, I was confused because it w...Yes it's that one, I was confused because it was reported in January. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74995719677841451792014-04-12T11:00:23.740+01:002014-04-12T11:00:23.740+01:00@Calum
Do you mean this one with fieldwork done i...@Calum<br /><br />Do you mean this one with fieldwork done in mid to late December?<br /><br />http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/prvrfwt99i/YG-Archive-131219-Better-Together.pdf<br /><br />Maybe reported in January.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63121118896449964022014-04-12T10:43:39.750+01:002014-04-12T10:43:39.750+01:00I wonder what John Curtice, the world's only p...I wonder what John Curtice, the world's only polling expert, will say about this one?Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6601310147992806512014-04-12T10:19:28.475+01:002014-04-12T10:19:28.475+01:00We have not seen an Ipsos-Mori Independence questi...We have not seen an Ipsos-Mori Independence question poll for some time. They must be one soon? Marcianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79319732576424267252014-04-12T01:01:03.340+01:002014-04-12T01:01:03.340+01:00"Using the most No-friendly pollster."
...<i>"Using the most No-friendly pollster."</i><br /><br />To be fair, after their most recent poll that showed Yes at a record high, YouGov are now only the third-most No-friendly pollster (after Ipsos-Mori and TNS-BMRB). But until September of last year, they tended to take turns with Ipsos-Mori as the outright most No-friendly.<br /><br />As for the No campaign's motivations, judging by the way they're spinning this poll the intention seemed to be to pretend that they'd asked something approximating to the real referendum question, so that they could artifically claim a drop in support for "separation". The mind boggles.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41250734604999819302014-04-12T00:20:21.814+01:002014-04-12T00:20:21.814+01:00Jings that is terrible for them. In a straight ru...Jings that is terrible for them. In a straight run-off between what many people would assume was devo-max, independence is at 38% when you take out the don't knows. Using the most No-friendly pollster.<br /><br />Why would they ask that question anyway? Just for a cheap headline? Or in the hope that they can pretend the No option is really offering more powers? I think that ship sailed some time ago.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-86468208709380713242014-04-11T23:59:35.495+01:002014-04-11T23:59:35.495+01:00It does indeed. The "No lead" has droppe...It does indeed. The "No lead" has dropped 9% in 3 months, although according to BT's blog "This poll confirms the drop in support for separation". Between this attempt at a push poll and their excitement about the Survation one, they are obviously getting very very rattled. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56926397158243314822014-04-11T23:32:55.247+01:002014-04-11T23:32:55.247+01:00SS: Thanks very much. I always look forward to re...SS: Thanks very much. I always look forward to reading your insights at Wings.<br /><br />Calum : I'd forgotten all about that January poll. That demonstrates the recent shift in opinion rather nicely.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39027703362442103972014-04-11T21:36:28.748+01:002014-04-11T21:36:28.748+01:00Let's compare this with Better Together's ...Let's compare this with Better Together's Jan poll: <br /><br />Jan YouGov/BT<br />Independence: 30% <br />More Powers/Status Quo: 61% <br />Don't Know: 9% <br /><br />April YouGov/BT <br />Independence: 35% <br />More Powers: 57% <br />Don't Know: 8% <br /><br />They obviously removed the "status quo" option second time around to try and pretend they are the "Pro devolution" campaign. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20129662765518106862014-04-11T21:19:20.766+01:002014-04-11T21:19:20.766+01:00Aye.
Thought exactly the same on seeing this earl...Aye.<br /><br />Thought exactly the same on seeing this earlier.<br /><br />Great poll analyses on this site BTW. Very conservative which is ideal. As a fellow poll geek I tip my hat.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.com