tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post9010660532499926717..comments2024-03-29T11:59:17.118+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Mystery of "new TNS poll" showing another boost for YesJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11463443316045409192014-08-13T19:54:54.095+01:002014-08-13T19:54:54.095+01:00I'm still positively bouncing with confidence ...I'm still positively bouncing with confidence Denise.<br /><br />You'd be better employing someone to kill a goat and examine it's entrails. Cheaper too.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04565579919684172507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32345556133727466252014-08-13T00:21:58.963+01:002014-08-13T00:21:58.963+01:00Within the campaign period certain to vote is usua...Within the campaign period certain to vote is usually used by pollsters so the 38/46 should really be the headline figure <br /><br />Two points the Herald and Record headlines were pulled because they were pro-Yes so I now believe the polls are being manipulated and being used to destroy the confidence of the Yes campaign.<br /><br />2. Better Together always get details first so are able to spin any poll as favourable to them.<br /><br />We should assume the polls are no more reliable than any other BT propaganda but how to stop confidence draining away?<br /><br />Could Yes commission a poll? Or perhaps we could produce a poll from RIC canvassing? Denisenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4986457350525428722014-08-13T00:11:02.110+01:002014-08-13T00:11:02.110+01:00Anonymous: 12:03 AM:
According to John Curtice, t...Anonymous: 12:03 AM:<br /><br />According to John Curtice, the fieldwork was done between 23 July (Commonwealth Games opening) and 7 August (Two days after the Salmond-Darling debate). So I don't think this poll could give us any insight to result of the debate.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20025448218859288462014-08-13T00:07:45.751+01:002014-08-13T00:07:45.751+01:00The "certain to vote" vs overall numbers...The "certain to vote" vs overall numbers aspect is relatively interesting from a political science perspective. What it implies is that overall people are supporting No (and this poll shows that gap widening) but that the No side is likely to have more trouble mobilising its vote. <br /><br />It's interesting because that brings other issues into play: e.g. the usual talk you get about the weather affecting turnout (so if it rains on 18 September that might be a good thing for the Yes side and a bad thing for No). Peter Wilsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2629026034886747662014-08-13T00:07:10.009+01:002014-08-13T00:07:10.009+01:00Oldnat
I agree with everything your saying on the...Oldnat<br /><br />I agree with everything your saying on the figures<br /><br />However there is a far bigger story with this poll than the numbers.<br /><br />The Herald earlier today ran a very similar story on these figures to the Daily Record one. Have a look at the way the Herald reports them today and ask why did it change? Why was the pro yes reporting replaced with pro no reporting?Laukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25714542758181581652014-08-13T00:03:35.529+01:002014-08-13T00:03:35.529+01:00So mad english public school ranter and failed cha... So mad english public school ranter and failed chancellor Darling has shot his load and achieved nothing.<br /><br /> He's now totally screwed by millipede's admission that he would deny us a currency union out of spite no matter the damage to his english electorate. Well done. Ready, aim, fire, Bang! No feet left!<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30486650702075638832014-08-13T00:02:35.028+01:002014-08-13T00:02:35.028+01:00OK, thanks all for clarifying that.OK, thanks all for clarifying that.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-74888766984492717242014-08-12T23:53:40.123+01:002014-08-12T23:53:40.123+01:00Numbers are the same as in what the Record article...Numbers are the same as in what the Record article posted earlier - though the numbers can be (and will be) spun for both campaigns.<br /><br />Undecideds down by 4% among those not certain to vote, but only 2% among those certain to.<br /><br />Underlying position remains the same. During the couple of weeks of fieldwork, there was a shift from Undecided to Yes among certain voters. Among those less certain to, the No vote rose.oldnathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14472618583129398722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-66955828674520443242014-08-12T23:51:53.427+01:002014-08-12T23:51:53.427+01:00Have a look at the daily record page form earlier ...Have a look at the daily record page form earlier today here https://archive.today/AOo3p <br /><br />The figures for all 1003 people polled are 32Y/45N<br /><br />However the figures for those defintely going to vote (only 733 people) becomes 38Y/46N<br /><br />Looks to me like the same poll but the reporting has changed. Who made the papers change the way in which it was reported? Laukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35801271206484056792014-08-12T23:46:22.837+01:002014-08-12T23:46:22.837+01:00The problem is that the article I saw was framed a...The problem is that the article I saw was framed as being favourable to know, yet the figures were as James said at Y38, N46. This leads me to think that it was an erroneous article they got from a news agency. That would also explain the fact that the Daily Record (According to others here) said the same thing.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24577229465340300062014-08-12T23:38:11.828+01:002014-08-12T23:38:11.828+01:00good news for no
up 4%
3rd poll since the debate...good news for no<br /><br />up 4%<br /><br />3rd poll since the debate<br /><br />all good for NOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83618348545398237962014-08-12T23:32:14.947+01:002014-08-12T23:32:14.947+01:00Very shortly, in fact.
Yes: 32 (N/C)
No: 45 (+4)
...Very shortly, in fact.<br /><br />Yes: 32 (N/C)<br />No: 45 (+4)<br /><br />Seems the figures released earlier were some sort of error.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38757068733678351892014-08-12T23:22:25.118+01:002014-08-12T23:22:25.118+01:00I saw the story of the poll on the Herald website ...I saw the story of the poll on the Herald website this morning and thought it was rather strange. What the article said conflicted with the actual figures released which, as James said, would have resulted in an all time high Yes vote for TNS. Blair McDougall tweeted an alert earlier that a TNS poll will be out at midnight (With the fieldwork done before and after the Salmond-Darling debate), and as we all know he tends to alert everyone to polls that are favourable to No. So all will be revealed shortly.Stoatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15411445139894168262014-08-12T22:51:23.114+01:002014-08-12T22:51:23.114+01:00Bit of a minter for the Herald and the Record (fol...Bit of a minter for the Herald and the Record (following suit) in releasing this earlier today.<br /><br />Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61660308618350704452014-08-12T22:31:37.885+01:002014-08-12T22:31:37.885+01:00"But midnight tonight places its publication ...<i>"But midnight tonight places its publication after tonight's Inverness debate"</i><br /><br />New poll shows movement towards Yes after Inverness debate!<br /><br />;-)Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-18624883826477988242014-08-12T22:19:52.698+01:002014-08-12T22:19:52.698+01:00Scottish_Skier.
But midnight tonight places its p...Scottish_Skier.<br /><br />But midnight tonight places its publication after tonight's Inverness debate - though I can't see the changes being so great as to affect things.oldnathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14472618583129398722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40148416560482388712014-08-12T22:15:22.526+01:002014-08-12T22:15:22.526+01:00Indeed Scottish_Skier. I somehow doubt the Record ...Indeed Scottish_Skier. I somehow doubt the Record enjoyed the appearance of ineptness that having to hurriedly withdraw their copy quite clearly gave. They had all their spin lined up as well.<br /><br />We'll know more eventually, but the very fact that these mere polls are being regarded with almost the same level of press hysteria and 'sensitivity' as an article that had got a D Notice slapped on it by westminster, is somewhat telling.<br /><br />It's just a poll. If you have to release it early then do so for god's sake.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20725583872488299712014-08-12T22:03:23.018+01:002014-08-12T22:03:23.018+01:00"TNS released it prematurely or made some err...<i>"TNS released it prematurely or made some error that needs rectified"</i><br /><br />I've been wondering about the latter given the circumstances. A bog standard / non-client poll released too early while becoming further out of date by the day needs such a fuss?<br /><br />Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69731992014246832842014-08-12T21:54:36.618+01:002014-08-12T21:54:36.618+01:00"Well I'm certainly growing more and more..."Well I'm certainly growing more and more convinced by the day that the pollsters are operating in an open and honest manner while the unionist media and No campaign are in no way looking like a bunch of desperate and incompetent amateurs."<br /><br />I don't really see much benefit in doing this - why would you put an article out and then immediately pull it on purpose? I think oldnat is probably on the money here and TNS or a news agency have just released it prematurely or made some error that needs rectified.Gordon Robsonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7700936435847422212014-08-12T21:29:08.144+01:002014-08-12T21:29:08.144+01:00Laukat
Thanks. Sounds like a TNS error.Laukat<br /><br />Thanks. Sounds like a TNS error.oldnathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14472618583129398722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40628971215300295642014-08-12T21:03:01.956+01:002014-08-12T21:03:01.956+01:00I think the following tweet might explain what is ...I think the following tweet might explain what is happening<br /><br />Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m<br /><br />Another #IndyRef poll due to be published at midnight. Most of fieldwork, though, was before the Salmond-Darling debate.Laukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70873447062158757722014-08-12T20:59:20.398+01:002014-08-12T20:59:20.398+01:00Scottish_Skier
I emailed a contact at TNS to ask ...Scottish_Skier<br /><br />I emailed a contact at TNS to ask about this. If I get a reply, I'll share it - though I'm not holding my breath!oldnathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14472618583129398722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19301806986365397142014-08-12T20:57:17.661+01:002014-08-12T20:57:17.661+01:00Gordon Robertson
That was my assumption when I in...Gordon Robertson<br /><br />That was my assumption when I initially saw it on the Herald site. However, since the same thing happened on the Record, it clearly wasn't the papers who made the mistake.<br /><br />Either, they were both taking it from a news agency (quite likely since papers don't have many reporters these days) where the error has made, or TNS themselves have asked for their press release to be withdrawn for some reason. I can't think of other reasonable explanations.oldnathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14472618583129398722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61229297151702531872014-08-12T20:54:55.154+01:002014-08-12T20:54:55.154+01:00Kinda odd that there'd be an embargo on a stan...Kinda odd that there'd be an embargo on a standard (no client for political Qs) TNS poll.<br /><br />And if it wasn't standard, but for a client what was it doing in the hands of the herald + Record who so readily ran with it then withdrew?<br /><br />And if it was a paid for poll, why was it in the hands of non-clients before the client reported it?<br /><br />It's out there already on social media, so why hasn't it been released as quickly as possible to quell rumours etc? Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73562378739213456252014-08-12T20:35:42.860+01:002014-08-12T20:35:42.860+01:00That Daily Record article is so extensive (even in...That Daily Record article is so extensive (even including a direct interview with the Head of TNS Scotland) that this is obviously just a case of someone messing up and putting the article out before they were supposed to - whether that's because it was intended to appear at a later date or the figures need to have a final check/have some error, or otherwise.Gordon Robsonnoreply@blogger.com