tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post8962985117057318894..comments2024-03-29T14:20:35.201+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Journey into the bizarre as Herald describes an increase in support for independence as "the reversal of a surge"James Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37100127114457407912016-08-08T03:35:07.362+01:002016-08-08T03:35:07.362+01:00I'm unfortunately familiar with 16 and 17 year...I'm unfortunately familiar with 16 and 17 year olds through my line of work. They don't vote. They are all pro indy and pro SNP, of course, but they can't be arsed going and voting for it.Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-1687671698328271412016-08-01T09:50:37.859+01:002016-08-01T09:50:37.859+01:00I don't have any evidence but after a two and ...I don't have any evidence but after a two and a half year campaign I think it's more likely than not positions harden.<br />I think independence opinions are likely to harden after a serious campaign than during 60 years of being ridiculed as a dream.<br /><br />I think there's more to holding a vote than when we have a steady lead of say 3-6 percent too. There would still need to be a campaign and it's at this point big changes in opinion could happen. Much has changed from Indyref1 and we need to change the argument. Fiscally we can't say we're a contributor anymore. Currency union with a non-EU country sounds more difficult. <br />I think on balance it's more prudent to wait and formalise an argument, with demographic on our side, than rush in without serious answers to those questions.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13932074523972594322016-08-01T00:31:47.875+01:002016-08-01T00:31:47.875+01:00There what evidence is there that "positions ...There what evidence is there that "positions have hardened" since 2014? How is it possible for anyone's position to harden, when such dramatic changes in the political landscape have occurred - even in the last few weeks? Just a few weeks ago, most people were of the opinion that Brexit wouldn't happen - couldn't happen (with an honourable exception in James, who was more wary). Nobody knows how opinion on independence is going to move in the next few weeks, never mind months or years. I sincerely hope that the SNP are ready to call for a referendum, as soon as the polls show a steady majority - not wait for some theoretical "safety margin".<br />Alex BirnieAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70616038895292860942016-07-31T23:00:29.903+01:002016-07-31T23:00:29.903+01:00Totally agree with Luigi. Polling over 30 years c...Totally agree with Luigi. Polling over 30 years consists of 25 years of independence not seriously being on the table. Don't have a clue how that then disproves..well.. anything. We live in a post referendum environment and Polling pre 2011 is somewhat of a different populace with a very difference outlook. Completely different. Whether you want to twiddle your thumbs or not is irrelevant. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43789658842511425152016-07-31T21:50:49.514+01:002016-07-31T21:50:49.514+01:00You have to ignore flag waving fashclosers who do...You have to ignore flag waving fashclosers who do not respect democracy.Glasgow Working Class 2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-67687840931301745092016-07-31T21:03:34.293+01:002016-07-31T21:03:34.293+01:00James, If a 16yr old person can vote in Scotland t...James, If a 16yr old person can vote in Scotland then why do the Nat sis consider this 16yr old requires a named person. Maybe to show them where to mark the X!Glasgow Working Class 2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44727325575785251322016-07-31T15:36:03.070+01:002016-07-31T15:36:03.070+01:00Interesting that Westminster however would never h...<i>Interesting that Westminster however would never have allowed such a vote when not allowing EU nationals (or 16-17yo's) the vote could likely be a prominent factor in the Leave win.</i><br /><br />We don't actually know whether Westminster would have allowed the franchise to be restricted to "birth" Scots. The SG (rightly) never suggested it to them.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-63764466863381971852016-07-31T13:51:21.828+01:002016-07-31T13:51:21.828+01:00Would it perhaps though reduce the 40% who would n...Would it perhaps though reduce the 40% who would never vote for Indy under any circumstances. Just a thought.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44911156039494867572016-07-31T10:08:55.261+01:002016-07-31T10:08:55.261+01:00They sampled 200 that were born Rest of UK and had...They sampled 200 that were born Rest of UK and had to weight that by halve. This was Hardly a representative sample of Scots.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11755453792768014218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60713569934681353422016-07-31T09:50:47.818+01:002016-07-31T09:50:47.818+01:00It's a terrible poll. No 16-17 year olds. Weig...It's a terrible poll. No 16-17 year olds. Weighted 3% in favour of Brexit voters. A lot of don't knows. It's an outlier almost manufactured. When is the next serious poll coming out!November13https://www.blogger.com/profile/03249463580152897462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69922580873433938692016-07-31T08:04:02.337+01:002016-07-31T08:04:02.337+01:00Why is the SNP using this polling company if this ...Why is the SNP using this polling company if this type of bias is known?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099991106368571630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44470002974486684112016-07-30T23:54:29.278+01:002016-07-30T23:54:29.278+01:00The Yoon quizzers at the Herald working over time ...The Yoon quizzers at the Herald working over time on behalf of the Brit Nat Establishment, no surprise there then. UK GOV also doing what it is telt as well so nothing new there either. One of the most dishonest Opinion Polls put out yet though. Oh and Britannia TV this evening was all over this poll like flies on a deid fish. Blatantly orchestrated release on the day of an Indy rally in Glasgow. There is no end to the mendacity of the Brit Nat Press and Media. Iain Morenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-76724661795868550082016-07-30T22:42:27.456+01:002016-07-30T22:42:27.456+01:00Laziness. Almost all YouGov polls are 18+, and th...Laziness. Almost all YouGov polls are 18+, and they can't be bothered changing their procedures for a Jock Poll.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24646353053451089022016-07-30T22:40:07.793+01:002016-07-30T22:40:07.793+01:00Your opinion is comprehensively disproved by polli...Your opinion is comprehensively disproved by polling over the last thirty years. Support for independence goes up and it goes down. At times, it goes up and down very, very fast. The idea that it was fluid and then hardened to the point of being immovable almost overnight is pretty hard to take seriously.<br /><br />I for one am not interested in twiddling my thumbs for the next twenty years and wondering why the polls are going backwards in spite of Demographic Inevitability.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50388746596727706722016-07-30T22:36:07.602+01:002016-07-30T22:36:07.602+01:00Now why would the poll exclude 16 & 17 Year ol...Now why would the poll exclude 16 & 17 Year old voters? https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ihg707zgux/ScottishTrackers_25-Jul-2016_Indy_W.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90301729126277548592016-07-30T18:11:46.079+01:002016-07-30T18:11:46.079+01:00I now note that the Graun has changed the figure t...I now note that the Graun has changed the figure to 53% there is no note as to the amendment of the article as should be proper. <br /><br />I also had no reply to my email. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59612647523419750532016-07-30T17:47:23.571+01:002016-07-30T17:47:23.571+01:00Well said.....
Exactly....No voters have best of ...Well said.....<br /><br />Exactly....No voters have best of both worlds....While ignoring the fact that without independence, even the SNP support might fade and fail and they will be exposed to the full weight of Westminster politics....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099991106368571630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-72422058929725016332016-07-30T16:19:12.365+01:002016-07-30T16:19:12.365+01:00Had the last referendum been conducted on the basi...Had the last referendum been conducted on the basis of only Scottish born residents being given the vote, figures show Yes would have marginally won. Interesting that Westminster however would never have allowed such a vote when not allowing EU nationals (or 16-17yo's) the vote could likely be a prominent factor in the Leave win.<br /><br />(Not arguing that this is how indyref1 should have been conducted but rather that EU nationals and 16-17yos should have been given the vote in EU ref)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12756777401696565607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32698820604409452012016-07-30T15:16:09.989+01:002016-07-30T15:16:09.989+01:00It's not all bad. It's one of 4 polls (i t...It's not all bad. It's one of 4 polls (i think) 3/4 for independence. It's still an increase! Also, on the day of the EU ref, polling looked as if it was in the bag for leave and it never happened.... <br /><br />Most importantly the campaign hasn't begun and the pain of leaving the EU isn't known yet.......Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28777699992688411522016-07-30T14:46:50.787+01:002016-07-30T14:46:50.787+01:00"The undecideds and the bottlers will put it ...<b>"The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."</b> <br /><br />AldoAldo Predictsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64715798943769471502016-07-30T14:43:38.058+01:002016-07-30T14:43:38.058+01:00No voters have the best of both worlds far as they...No voters have the best of both worlds far as they are concerned. A competent government in Holyrood, who pretty much balance the books, against huge odds. No tuition fees for their kids and grandkids, no prescription charges, cheap housing, outsude if the city, good infrastructure and cheap, efficient transport. <br /><br />The SNP government are doing a good job, under the circumstances, mitigating the UK government's horrendous austerity attacks on the poor and vulnerable. The SNP are creating as many projects as possible to encourage business, and innovation in many areas. House building, decent houses, even the start up support for first time buyers. The lucky first time buyers are very likely middle class, that's ok, but many will have no voting parents. <br />The no voters in Scotland, and the ones with second homes here, never had it so good, why upset the apple cart? You have your brit passport, all the perks, or benefits rather of living in a well run country. The free bus pass for those who turn 60, even if they are a millionaire, in NE england my bro has to wait until he is 65, having worked since he was 15. No free travel for him, even though he has health problems. In Scotland free care for the elderly, a good NHS, being improved all the time by the SNP. Look at england regards those things, it's a rip off country, benefitting the well off, the rich. <br /><br />The Scottish government are doing what they can, they are inclusive, not exclusive, in contrast to the UKok government. They could do so much more if we were independent, it's incredibly sad. It seems the no voters are too comfortable to want change for the better, and Scotland should be much better than it is, rather than stifled by Westminster, with those at the helm of a cruel and destructive government who keep the people subservient. <br /><br />. We don't want the kind of victorian society that Westmonster thrives on and promotes, no thanks. Scotland is moving rapidly into the 21st century, we can't allow the selfish to hold us back any longer.<br /><br />hettyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14336425954068503728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23384999818277436962016-07-30T14:33:04.952+01:002016-07-30T14:33:04.952+01:00Why drag the English concept of nationality by bir...Why drag the English concept of nationality by birth in? Jesus was born in a stable; was he a horse?<br />The last qualification was fine, people 16 and up resident in Scotlandhandclappinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17150567350735133696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83311286193743078402016-07-30T14:23:45.421+01:002016-07-30T14:23:45.421+01:00Agree with anonymous, i never believe any " ...Agree with anonymous, i never believe any " unionist manipulated/engineered/ rigged poll." Mike dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06399614215607395626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16865628793339928202016-07-30T14:16:13.614+01:002016-07-30T14:16:13.614+01:00I must admit, as a unionist it came as something o...I must admit, as a unionist it came as something of a relief that brexit hasn't immediately and decisively flipped public opinion in favour of independence. The Scottish people are giving the UK a chance, again, and hoping for a good EU deal and the continuation of 'business as usual'. If they get it, there is no reason to believe polling figures like this wont continue.<br /><br />From the SNP's point of view, it's bad. They are no further forward and the clock is ticking - 4 years and 9 months until they are required to go to the country again to seek a FOURTH term. Realistically, they have to wait until a brexit deal is reached before they can even think of holding a referendum. So that limits the time window to, what - perhaps two years or thereabouts? And what if the polls are still against them? <br /><br />All these dilemmas. But the clock never stops ticking.<br /><br />Tick. Tock.Aldohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03385445471036440872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57163008687018430332016-07-30T14:10:21.036+01:002016-07-30T14:10:21.036+01:00Sorry James, I disagree. I'm not advocating de...Sorry James, I disagree. I'm not advocating demographic dependence, but I still think this ain't gonna happen quickly. Yes there was a lot of fluidity prior to 2014, because folk had not really considered independence as a realistic possibility. Since then, however, positions have hardened, I mean really hardened. People may be frustrated with this - gentle persuasion may work but it will not work quickly. We can but hope that BREXIT will not happen or it will be delayed a few years. Only two things can change a person's belief system: gradual persuasion or one hell of a shock. The former takes time, lots of time. The latter, well BREXIT was not shocking enough - yet. You have your opinion, I have mine. We shall find out in time. Luiginoreply@blogger.com