tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post8788144841655627446..comments2024-03-28T09:36:06.579+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP seize record-breaking 22% lead in mesmerising pre-election Panelbase pollJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35501597255407914562015-05-06T20:19:58.457+01:002015-05-06T20:19:58.457+01:00To James
C'mon?! There is no way ANY spin coul...To James<br />C'mon?! There is no way ANY spin could make "losing (say) 30 seats out of 41 as some sort of "triumph". And do you think SNP supporters are stupid? LAB will not be allowed even a sniff of hope. We have Holyrood next year. Anyway LAB will be too busy infighting in Scotland to do anything.James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-32625381277542337772015-05-06T20:07:50.324+01:002015-05-06T20:07:50.324+01:00Then be sure to go out and help! Then be sure to go out and help! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-56183587898489982092015-05-06T19:48:36.343+01:002015-05-06T19:48:36.343+01:00indeed, hope cars, loudhailers, babysitters,pet- s...indeed, hope cars, loudhailers, babysitters,pet- sitters and whatever else is needed to get voters to the polling station - are all ready to go!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88724763376287386282015-05-06T19:32:20.641+01:002015-05-06T19:32:20.641+01:00If the SNP wins less than 40 seats tomorrow I will...If the SNP wins less than 40 seats tomorrow I will be sad and a little confused, but that will still be a truly remarkable turnaround from 2010. We need to bear that in mind. Labour is in terminal decline and they don't have the capacity or self-awareness sufficient for change. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55125321360321209022015-05-06T18:05:25.767+01:002015-05-06T18:05:25.767+01:00The lowest amount would be 0 ;-)The lowest amount would be 0 ;-)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12691471644301458718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-92175215621794105572015-05-06T17:00:39.892+01:002015-05-06T17:00:39.892+01:00James : True, although throughout this campaign I&...James : True, although throughout this campaign I've always taken the view that trying to downplay expectations was completely misguided, because the SNP need to fight for every bit of attention in a Westminster campaign, and the way to do it was to talk expectations up. They've only now reached the point where they can forget about attracting attention, and concentrate on managing expectations.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21242792035361298072015-05-06T16:58:01.477+01:002015-05-06T16:58:01.477+01:00Just to manage expectations, what is the lowest am...Just to manage expectations, what is the lowest amount of seats the SNP could win tomorrow? Are we talking 25?FitzyFannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-58536805505839468332015-05-06T16:55:20.262+01:002015-05-06T16:55:20.262+01:00We'll never get to the point where the polls c...We'll never get to the point where the polls can be discounted. Even if this is one of the rare occasions when they're miles away from the final outcome, methodology will be refined to ensure better accuracy next time around.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55483935620985639662015-05-06T16:52:28.693+01:002015-05-06T16:52:28.693+01:00Men 18-34: SNP 53, Lab 22, Con 9
Women 18-34: SNP ...Men 18-34: SNP 53, Lab 22, Con 9<br />Women 18-34: SNP 48, Lab 28, Con 9<br />Men 35-54: SNP 52, Lab 27, Con 10<br />Women 35-54: SNP 48, Lab 30, Con 13<br />Men 55+: SNP 45, Lab 28, Con 18<br />Women 55+: SNP 42, Lab 23, Con 23<br /><br />Also, professionals are more likely to vote than working class people.<br /><br />ABC1s: SNP 39, Lab 26, Con 20<br />C2DEs: SNP 55, Lab 26, Con 9<br /><br />This poll (like other online polls in campaign) are filtered by how likely people say they are to vote, but the problem arises if people exaggerate that likelihood. This often occurs in landslide scenarios: people think their preferred side is going to win anyway. This point may not be so important in the case of the SNP because of the current enthusiasm, but relative turnout is an issue to watch.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30239286871838445912015-05-06T16:52:24.285+01:002015-05-06T16:52:24.285+01:00All that is left is for the SNP to make sure they ...All that is left is for the SNP to make sure they get their vote out tomorrow.muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90417251863837005602015-05-06T16:50:32.839+01:002015-05-06T16:50:32.839+01:00There is now so much soul searching I've decid...There is now so much soul searching I've decided the time has come for the cards to fall how they may.<br />I understand that the votes for quite a few Labour MPs are very large and difficult to overcome but if people have insufficient will for changing their circumstances then they are either happy with them or they are where they are and must live with the consequences.<br />I hope the polls are true but if not, despite the excellent information and analysis on this page, they can be discounted in any future elections and we can all have some better nights of sleep.Brian Powellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-21639764944796947792015-05-06T16:46:01.769+01:002015-05-06T16:46:01.769+01:00Panelbase tables:
http://panelbase.com//media/pol...Panelbase tables:<br /><br />http://panelbase.com//media/polls/W6836w7STV.pdf<br /><br />Kind of bears out what I was talking about above re: younger voters. The SNP comfortably with all age ranges, but the bigger leads are with the younger groups. This means that the overall figures would be dragged down if they do not turnout as much as they say they will.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-43657743893008859602015-05-06T16:23:15.900+01:002015-05-06T16:23:15.900+01:00Slightly worrying that the Ipsos Mori director app...Slightly worrying that the Ipsos Mori director appears to be getting his excuses in early in a blog for STV.<br /><br />http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/analysis/319619-analysis-ipsos-moris-mark-diffley-looks-at-how-will-scotland-vote/<br /><br />I would have thought the online pollsters, particularly the ones that weight by referendum recall, will be closer to the result than Mori. There's no reason for there to be false recall in respect of the referendum, given that it was such a major event and very recent. Mori just trust that the response rates between different political affiliations are the same. Scotland now appears to be an example where this is not the case. Weighting by referendum recall addresses this point. <br /><br />The main other thing that could count against the SNP (as Diffley points out) is that it disproportionately draws support from younger people. If they don't turn out, despite saying they will, then that will knock the SNP down a bit. This applies to all of the polls.<br /><br />I think it's healthier to assume this will happen, rather than building up unrealistic hopes of a total wipeout. As I have pointed out before, Blair's Labour regularly polled above 50% but then "only" got 44% on the day. Nobody cared because they still won a massive majority. The worst thing that the SNP (and its supporters) could do now would be to allow Labour to spin losing (say) 30 seats out of 41 as some sort of "triumph".Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85540512006890758682015-05-06T14:52:18.115+01:002015-05-06T14:52:18.115+01:00During the referendum campaign, the legend that is...During the referendum campaign, the legend that is Councillor Terry Kelly used to claim that Panelbase was not a serious pollster. Hope he's right.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70677734800559673072015-05-06T14:28:48.551+01:002015-05-06T14:28:48.551+01:00To be honest I think everyone is fed up with elect...To be honest I think everyone is fed up with election lies, spin and polls. There WAS a surge for the SNP a few weeks ago and I don't think anything Milliband, Murphy or other Labour say now, is going to be believed, or will have any effect on voting intentions. <br /><br />It now depends on voting in individual seats and it will be very interesting to see how these national percentages pan out and who will be in and who will be out after Thursday.James Colemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83174224418334522612015-05-06T13:55:35.482+01:002015-05-06T13:55:35.482+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.FergusMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01068159554801149940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8619339314571306622015-05-06T13:26:19.286+01:002015-05-06T13:26:19.286+01:00In D, C & T, I received a personally-addressed...In D, C & T, I received a personally-addressed letter from David Mundell, headed "IT'S ME OR THE SNP - MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT."<br /><br />He says it's going to be close, He realises nothing entitles or guarantees him to win. It mentions his hard work as a constituency MP (which is true) and his absolute commitment to keeping Scotland in the Union (which is also true). He says an SNP MP would not represent local people's views on the future of our country. "Say No thanks to separation and another referendum." (this last sentence in bold). He asks me not to "assume he will be re-elected anyway. The polls say otherwise."<br /><br />In an appeal for tactical votes, he continues: "That's why lots of people who haven't voted for me in the past are doing so this time."<br /><br />Sadly for Mr Mundell, everything he says just reinforces my intention to go out this evening and work for Emma Harper's election.FergusMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01068159554801149940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53185622458061293072015-05-06T13:11:48.103+01:002015-05-06T13:11:48.103+01:00I do enjoy these polls but Ashcroft style constitu...I do enjoy these polls but Ashcroft style constituency polls make so much more sense. I wish other companies did them regularly so we could get a clearer idea of where we stand. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com