tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7743417361523159879..comments2024-03-29T11:01:44.272+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: SNP soar to 41% in Scot Goes Pop Poll of PollsJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71617766866804797492014-10-13T11:29:17.862+01:002014-10-13T11:29:17.862+01:00re Chalks; I think that is an opening gambit by th...re Chalks; I think that is an opening gambit by the broadcasters (who want the ratings). UKIP have kind of accepted the formula but the Lib Dems are objecting.<br /><br />http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_13-10-2014_BPC.pdf<br /><br />Populus subsample has SNP 36, Labour 27, Tories 23 and LD 11. UKIP 1%. No other "region" are they lower than 13.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65235640689160905752014-10-13T07:18:17.481+01:002014-10-13T07:18:17.481+01:00Re the Greens. I can see the BBC pushing the Green...Re the Greens. I can see the BBC pushing the Greens in an attempt to split the SNP vote.Jutemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11061671774494923407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-2638923983803561582014-10-12T21:09:16.493+01:002014-10-12T21:09:16.493+01:00Excellent to see a strong SNP lead, but I still th...Excellent to see a strong SNP lead, but I still think we'll come second next year to Labour. I have no doubt at all, we will double at least our tally of MPs, but some of those Labour majorities are massive with over 50% of the vote. <br /><br />Encouraging is that - those 4 areas that voted Yes plus the 'bawhair' (pardon, mon Frenchishe) that was Inverclyde 49-51% No are ALL Labour strongholds.<br /><br />Lots of angry Labour or sorry, ex Labour supporters out there.<br /><br />Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83399717247778761982014-10-12T14:23:20.587+01:002014-10-12T14:23:20.587+01:00In reference to the controversial article I posted...In reference to the controversial article I posted above, if this is the first time you have come across it then the original discussion is in this tnread.<br /><br />http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/lies-lies-lies-evidence-that-no.htmlsmerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54048792213092706892014-10-12T12:27:36.721+01:002014-10-12T12:27:36.721+01:00James
Perhaps the Greens benefit from the BBC'...James<br /><br />Perhaps the Greens benefit from the BBC's approach to broadcasting.<br /><br />Some critics of the BBC point to the decision by the BBC to depart from impartial reporting of climate change. They claim that a meeting leading to that decision was misrepresented.I googled and found this: www.theregister.co.uk/2012/11/13/climate28_named_wtf/<br /><br />The substance of it is that the BBC misrepresented the status of those attending a seminar "focusing on climate change and its impact on development". The 28 outside people invited were not "some of the best scientific experts" as claimed. The great majority were activists, WWF, Greenpeace and others. Following the seminar the BBC cited the discussion and said it had settled the argument on climate change.<br /><br />This may be a little off-topic and perhaps unwelcome.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20282706521653594642014-10-12T12:26:11.226+01:002014-10-12T12:26:11.226+01:00Survation Poll for the Mail on Sunday gives UKIP 2...Survation Poll for the Mail on Sunday gives UKIP 25% or 128 MPs at the next GE! <br />Would love to see the framing of the question...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59651332643253085542014-10-12T11:54:19.903+01:002014-10-12T11:54:19.903+01:00Alex, I don't know which comments from Curtice...Alex, I don't know which comments from Curtice you're referring to, but I very much doubt he's referring to these percentages. He's been studiously ignoring the Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls, and has instead based his remarks solely on the two full-scale Scottish polls that have taken place since the referendum, neither of which were as favourable for the SNP as the average of the subsamples.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47692677699524999692014-10-12T11:37:59.970+01:002014-10-12T11:37:59.970+01:00Prof Curtice stating even these percentages are no...Prof Curtice stating even these percentages are not high enough for SNP to win that many extra seatsalex livingstonenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33964033092806170982014-10-12T10:55:00.398+01:002014-10-12T10:55:00.398+01:00If we get 20 MPs I'd be happy with that. As ol...If we get 20 MPs I'd be happy with that. As oldnat says, finally the SNP are going for what a cast iron majority want. But old labour habits die hardchalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47254703548353293342014-10-12T10:31:05.688+01:002014-10-12T10:31:05.688+01:00Thanks James. Now you come to mention it I do rem...Thanks James. Now you come to mention it I do remember that discussion but I didn't realise it was the same article. I'll try to find the thread and re-read it.smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69381949250567216392014-10-12T10:12:20.212+01:002014-10-12T10:12:20.212+01:00Smerral : I can't remember which thread it was...Smerral : I can't remember which thread it was, but we discussed that article at quite a bit of length. In my view it's nonsense - it takes the normal effects of a high turnout (ie. a large number of voters on both sides who wouldn't normally have voted, some of them soft voters), and sees patterns that aren't there. Even the 'received wisdom' bit is largely a straw man.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-77572548754547224482014-10-12T08:54:24.688+01:002014-10-12T08:54:24.688+01:00Sorry to go off topic so quickly or if this has be...Sorry to go off topic so quickly or if this has been posted previously, but what do we all make of this analysis? It seems to make sense to me, and its conclusion of a pool of solid NO voters unlikely to be swayed by the failed delivery of greater powers could mean that achieving the required 6% swing in a future referendium could be more difficult than we imagine.<br /><br />http://faintdamnation.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/1979-1997-2014-why-the-received-wisdom-on-scotlands-three-referendums-is-wrong/smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39602533524934657752014-10-12T07:37:46.911+01:002014-10-12T07:37:46.911+01:00Bit narrower in Yougov, but within current pattern...Bit narrower in Yougov, but within current pattern shift ranges. Survation of course averages it out nicely with 50% SNP.Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81828927165617833242014-10-12T02:27:05.061+01:002014-10-12T02:27:05.061+01:00Those are quite incredible numbers.
Given a unif...Those are quite incredible numbers. <br /><br />Given a uniform swing, these numbers would result in 2 seats each for the Tories and the Libs, 14 for Labour and 41!! for the SNP, according to the advanced swingometer tool on ukpollingreport.co.uk.Rhys McKenziehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08534937896669845274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-69462532097148272272014-10-12T00:42:45.724+01:002014-10-12T00:42:45.724+01:00Unfortunately, SNP often pick up votes in ridiculo...Unfortunately, SNP often pick up votes in ridiculously safe Labour seats, but fail to do so where the gap is narrower. Let's hope that doesn't happen next time.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41580594866327403422014-10-12T00:26:41.999+01:002014-10-12T00:26:41.999+01:0041% could give the SNP 40 MPs. In a hung parliamen...41% could give the SNP 40 MPs. In a hung parliament, that power would be immense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79366101519242843372014-10-11T21:39:59.021+01:002014-10-11T21:39:59.021+01:00I'm a cynic about politicians! To me the SNP s...I'm a cynic about politicians! To me the SNP submission is (finally) a detailed description of Devo-Max. We now have flesh on the bones for people to vote for - but, of course, Westminster won't give it (or any SNP suggestion) house room.<br /><br />The Green proposals, however read like a list of items that would greatly benefit the governance of Scotland, and that Westminster might agree to cede to avoid being murdered in May.<br /><br />Nicola & Patrick may well have had an informal chat along those very lines!oldnathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14472618583129398722noreply@blogger.com