tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post7672248985319978316..comments2024-03-28T14:13:30.056+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Yonder YouGov poll sees SNP lead growing even furtherJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71302367716837560802015-09-15T13:11:21.641+01:002015-09-15T13:11:21.641+01:00Time already has revealed the full picture, Aldo -...Time already has revealed the full picture, Aldo - the polling information we have is more than ample to draw the firm conclusion that voting intentions have been relatively stable since the spring. If you prefer to live in a world of make-believe, that's your own affair.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13322776716597914652015-09-15T13:08:08.557+01:002015-09-15T13:08:08.557+01:00Normally such a collapse in support would look rid...Normally such a collapse in support would look ridiculous - but there are possible reasons for it. The SNP have come under heavy fire from their own voters, for example, for encouraging refugees to enter Scotland. It would appear there is a 'Scotland First' element supporting the SNP, and they aren't happy with this. <br /><br />Time will reveal the full picture, I suppose. <br /><br />Aldo Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34450710921460786482015-09-15T11:17:07.680+01:002015-09-15T11:17:07.680+01:00It's certainly a hell of a lot more useful tha...It's certainly a hell of a lot more useful than comparing non-like with non-like. We already have a recent TNS poll to compare to previous TNS polls, so I don't know what you're fretting about. Is your argument that the SNP started at 49% in the spring, soared to 62% in the summer, and then collapsed to 51% in September? That's obviously bollocks, but it still leaves the SNP higher than they started, so believe your little fantasy if it makes you feel any happier.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24403424918797938772015-09-15T11:03:57.501+01:002015-09-15T11:03:57.501+01:00But aren't all polls a reasonable measure of p...But aren't all polls a reasonable measure of public opinion? You say you can only compare a YouGov poll with a previous YouGov poll, an ICM poll with the previous ICM etc. I do get it. But if the last poll results from a particular company were months ago, then perhaps comparing like with like in this way is limited in its usefulness. <br /><br />Aldo Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48560306294872475602015-09-15T09:42:54.008+01:002015-09-15T09:42:54.008+01:00No, it's proper practice to compare with the m...No, it's proper practice to compare with the most recent comparable poll, rather than with a poll that is not comparable at all. If you really don't understand something as basic as that, it's time for you to stop broadcasting and start listening.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23975401289780616632015-09-15T09:20:26.319+01:002015-09-15T09:20:26.319+01:00In the absence of a proper counter argument, insul...In the absence of a proper counter argument, insult insult insult....<br /><br />No wonder you lost.<br /><br />AldoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55815205512019916402015-09-15T09:19:13.910+01:002015-09-15T09:19:13.910+01:00Right, so you do a comparison with a poll from abo...Right, so you do a comparison with a poll from about 4 or 5 months ago, ignoring the massive rise and fall in SNP support in the interim period. That seems awfully selective! <br /><br />Aldo Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47664173023867451712015-09-14T18:48:27.330+01:002015-09-14T18:48:27.330+01:00Sorry, Aldo. Misplaced a question mark in there.Sorry, Aldo. Misplaced a question mark in there.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02975588480290026016noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-11020656584223284472015-09-14T18:40:59.020+01:002015-09-14T18:40:59.020+01:00Question perhaps a wee bit O/T: Is Aldo a Howler M...Question perhaps a wee bit O/T: Is Aldo a Howler Monkey in addition to being a BritNat troll? A new genus (?) being evidenced before our very eyes on computer screens and on the record for ease of documentation and evolutionary research (zoological come-leaping-the-species-barrier anthropological come Lord of the Rings meets Harry Potter kind of phenomenon?).<br /><br />Aldo, get on your keyboard and let your fingers do the typing again - post doing the basic arithmetic and pre-phrenology 101: The notion of the monkey churning out Shakespeare, if not Dunbar and Burns, by the bucket-load awaits your nimble fingertips for proof approximately positive.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02975588480290026016noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60956678520908842422015-09-14T14:46:31.089+01:002015-09-14T14:46:31.089+01:00"They were polling 62% about a month ago"...<i>"They were polling 62% about a month ago"</i><br /><br />No. There wasn't a YouGov poll "about a month ago". The last one was in the spring, and the SNP vote has increased 2% since then on both ballots.<br /><br />The 62% was in a TNS poll. If you actually start reading the blogposts you leave comments on, it would in most cases protect you from making these embarrassing howlers.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-15329537006408261112015-09-14T14:04:45.279+01:002015-09-14T14:04:45.279+01:00They were polling 62% about a month ago and have r...They were polling 62% about a month ago and have regularly polled in the mid to high fifties / low sixties for the last several weeks. 51% represents a possible shift away from "very high" to just "high".<br /><br />I checked the poll on Wikipedia. They have 51% SNP (constituency) and 45% SNP / 6% Green (regional). We can safely assume from this that the Green supporters support SNP on the constituency ballot but feel they have a bit more freedom on the second ballot. <br /><br />So that gives us a total of 51% for the pro indy parties. Another 6% drop puts them in danger of losing their majority. <br /><br />AldoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-27757926657760721922015-09-14T12:57:07.355+01:002015-09-14T12:57:07.355+01:00No, Aldo. No. It is not "down from a high o...No, Aldo. No. It is not "down from a high of 62%". This is you talking garbage again. James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23876961600357623542015-09-14T12:52:56.898+01:002015-09-14T12:52:56.898+01:00But down from a high of 62% / 54%. Total pro indy ...But down from a high of 62% / 54%. Total pro indy support now stands at 54%. Should that figure fall to 45% by the time of the election, there may well not be a majority for independence in the Scottish Parliament. <br /><br />And that's before we even factor in the Corbyn effect. <br /><br />AldoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64755660923326345172015-09-14T10:49:59.646+01:002015-09-14T10:49:59.646+01:00This stuff really isn't your strong point, is ...This stuff really isn't your strong point, is it, Aldo? The percentage changes are helpfully contained in the post - the SNP are up 2% on both ballots. James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17000594760481077542015-09-14T10:16:05.508+01:002015-09-14T10:16:05.508+01:00Less so than it has been. However the appointment ...Less so than it has been. However the appointment of an apparently pro-IRA shadow chancellor will kill this remaining part of that vote stone dead. The question is where it goes. The Tories have already picked up on this opportunity will be going after this vote hard, especially on the list in Central Scotland and Glasgow.<br /><br />I'm not convinced the UKIP machine is strong enough or sophisticated enough to take advantage in more disillusioned, unionist, working class areas, but they could take 2 or 3 % on the list which would be enough to stop the Tories getting a second list MSP in both Glasgow and Central.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40153678473374424502015-09-14T09:46:07.363+01:002015-09-14T09:46:07.363+01:00SNP vote looks to have plunged about 10% in the la...SNP vote looks to have plunged about 10% in the last couple of weeks. <br /><br />AldoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-46895892839846917712015-09-14T08:48:41.252+01:002015-09-14T08:48:41.252+01:00James,
Someone posted a hypothesis on twitter on ...James, <br />Someone posted a hypothesis on twitter on whether Corbyn's election would affect how the Orange bloc would vote...I was wondering if you knew if the Slab vote had an orange component? Or is this bloc already voting Tory/UKIP?<br />Thanks, PaulAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75566560044552039312015-09-14T01:24:36.738+01:002015-09-14T01:24:36.738+01:00Iain
You've just left James wondering what the...Iain<br />You've just left James wondering what the heck you're talking about :-)Lollysmumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61488737024141227032015-09-14T01:19:00.360+01:002015-09-14T01:19:00.360+01:00As I'm about to add to the post, the fieldwork...As I'm about to add to the post, the fieldwork took place well before Corbyn became leader, so it remains an entirely open question whether there'll be a bounce.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53784305053146158052015-09-14T01:13:45.579+01:002015-09-14T01:13:45.579+01:00No Corbie bounce then. Disreporting Jackie will be...No Corbie bounce then. Disreporting Jackie will be most annoyed. The BBCs Brit Battles thingy isn't going to well for them either - Oh Dear Bannockburn has overtaken Achtung Spitfire in its polling and the Boyne barely registers. My ribs hurt from laughing.Iain Morenoreply@blogger.com